D'Andre Swift, Amari Cooper Fantasy Outlook: Week 5 Sheesh Report
- D'Andre Swift was so close, yet so far away from an even bigger day
- The Eagles RB special: Down at the 1-yard line, and no TD
- Unrealized air yards are a helluva drug
- What's worse than political advertisements? Dropped TDs
- Would have been a lot cooler if these throws were better
- Ja'Lynn Polk might have cost Jacoby Brissett his job
- Touchdown! Yay! Oh No: Flag.
- Throw the ball to Justin Jefferson and good things happen
- Was that interception REALLY the QB's fault?
Week 5 has come and gone. Fourteen NFL games brought joy, laughs and tears to football fans and, of course, fantasy football faithful.
Today, we’ll focus on the latter sadness and break down just how close some came to achieving fantasy football glory. Critics might call this unnecessary cruelty, while supporters could claim it helps with understanding the full context of what exactly happened last week.
Either way: Welcome to the Sheesh Report.
What follows is a breakdown of all the tilting, near-miss moments from Week 5 that left fantasy managers and fans alike saying, "Sheesh." I’ve watched hours of film and combed play-by-play data to help determine instances when:
- Pass-catchers could have scored or picked up big yardage with a more accurate pass
- Pass-catchers did receive an accurate pass that should have resulted in a score or big gain, but the ball was dropped
- Ball carriers managed to get all the way to the one-yard line, but didn’t score
- Players scored or picked up big yardage, but the play was nullified by penalty
- Other random shit tilted fantasy football managers of all shapes and sizes
Let's kick things off with the one player who dealt with more sheesh than just about anyone in Week 5…
D'Andre Swift was so close, yet so far away from an even bigger day
The Bears RB1 has been balling out over the last two weeks ever since the world largely wrote him off as a bad football player. Overall, Swift racked up 285 total yards and a pair of scores in the Bears' wins over the Rams and Panthers, good for a whopping 49.5 PPR points — the second-most of any RB behind only Derrick Henry.
However, Swift's Week 5 box score coulda, shoulda, woulda been so much bigger if he had managed to gain just a few more inches on a couple of his runs. Specifically: Swift was stopped at the 1-yard line on three separate occasions on drives that ultimately ended in Roschon Johnson TDs. That doesn't even include the ex-Lions/Eagles RB scoring a TD that was nullified due to an illegal shift penalty; he could have realistically added *two* additional scores to his stat line with just a bit more luck around the goal line.
Fantasy managers and Bears fans should still be happy with Swift's turnaround after a rather disastrous first three weeks of the season, but that doesn't mean Sunday didn't include quite a bit of sheesh for all parties involved to deal with. Sheesh.
Now for the rest of the week's players who managed to get to the doorstep of the end zone, only to fail to gain those pesky final few inches.
The Eagles RB special: Down at the 1-yard line, and no TD
Getting all the way to the 1-yard line but failing to score a TD is objectively a sheeshy feeling — particularly when fantasy managers are forced to watch someone else vulture away the score that was SO CLOSE to belonging to them.
Here’s the full list of Week 5’s players who managed to get the football within three feet of the goal line, but not quite across the plane, and ultimately didn’t score later on the same drive:
- Bears RB D'Andre Swift (x3, two were on the same drive)
- Colts RB Trey Sermon (x3, same drive)
- Giants RB Eric Gray (x2, same drive and lost a fumble … that was taken back for a TD)
- Rams RB Blake Corum (x2, same drive)
- Ravens RB Derrick Henry
- Broncos RB Javonte Williams
- Bengals RB Zack Moss
- Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle (and it was almost disastrous)
- Colts WR Alec Pierce
- Ravens QB Lamar Jackson
- Cowboys QB Dak Prescott
- Giants QB Daniel Jones
- Bengals QB Joe Burrow (did throw for a TD on the same drive)
Plenty of these guys still put up solid numbers, but fantasy managers can certainly imagine what it would've been like had they manage to gain just one single yard more on those respective runs. Sheesh.
Speaking of productive performances that were nearly so much bigger…
Unrealized air yards are a helluva drug
We can help quantity sheeshy missed downfield opportunities using “unrealized air yards,” which are derived by subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving yards total before taking the difference with total air yards to pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air (not including potential YAC) a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.
We're essentially measuring the total distance of everyone's incomplete targets. A high number indicates a player had lots of fantasy-friendly opportunities, but didn't capitalize on them for one reason or another. Cool? Cool.
ANYWAYS: 12 players racked up at least 80 unrealized air yards in Week 4 (including penalties):
- Browns WR Amari Cooper (143)
- Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (136)
- Saints WR Rashid Shaheed (133)
- Vikings WR Jordan Addison (119)
- Bills WR Mack Hollins (118)
- Jets WR Garrett Wilson (115)
- Falcons WR Darnell Mooney (114)
- Saints WR Mason Tipton (105)
- Jets WR Allen Lazard (98)
- Rams WR Tutu Atwell (92)
- Commanders WR Terry McLaurin (88)
- Bills TE Dalton Kincaid (85)
Cooper not only managed to lead the week, but his 489 unrealized air yards on the season are easily tops in the league. Broncos WR Courtland Sutton (359) and Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks (320) are the next-closest sheeshers.
Of course, Cooper and Wicks also haven't helped their cause throughout the year by dropping five passes each — tied for the second-most in the NFL. Not ideal, although at least neither explicitly let six points fall through their fingertips last week like our next group…
What's worse than political advertisements? Dropped TDs
While drops are a somewhat subjective stat, you know one when you see one, and we unfortunately had to watch the following six players let a good-enough potential TD bounce off their hands and fall incomplete in Week 5:
- Broncos WR Troy Franklin (potential 45-yard TD)
- Colts TE Mo Alie-Cox (19)
- Jets WR Allen Lazard (14)
- Commanders WR Terry McLaurin (12)
- Cardinals TE Trey McBride (12)
- Browns WR Jerry Jeudy (8)
- 49ers TE George Kittle (6)
- Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (2)
Of course, sometimes sheeshy non-TDs should be blamed a bit more on the person throwing the pass in the first place…
Would have been a lot cooler if these throws were better
You know the moment. The receiver got open, the QB had a reasonable pocket to work from, the pass was there, the crowd stood up … and sheesh: overthrown, underthrown, too high, or too low, and all that goes into the box score is an incompletion.
Anyways, I looked at every incomplete pass that was thrown at least 20 yards downfield and/or into the end zone to get an idea of who just missed out on some big plays last week — and believe me there were PLENTY:
- Vikings WR Jordan Addison: While pressure didn't provide the cleanest pocket for Sam Darnold, it sure looked like Addison had a chance to go 83 yards to the house with a better throw.
- Bills WR Mack Hollins: A crispy double-move sprung Hollins wide open deep for what had the potential to be a 59-yard TD, but he and Josh Allen couldn't quite connect.
- Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks: Had a chance to make a play on the ball anyway, but let's face it: A better pass would have given Wicks a chance to score a 57-yard TD late.
- Panthers WR Diontae Johnson: A regular in the sheesh streets, Johnson first drew a DPI on what sure looked like could have been a 52-yard score before later on the same drive being overthrown (again) on a potential nine-yard TD.
- Buccaneers WR Sterling Shepard: Got loose downfield and was open enough to believe he would have scored a 42-yard TD with an accurate pass.
- Jets WR Garrett Wilson: Toasted Stephon Gilmore on a double-move, but sadly Aaron Rodgers' intended pass was long and fell incomplete.
- Chiefs RB Samaje Perine: Got open in the end zone for a potential eight-yard score after a vintage Patrick Mahomes 360-scramble bought him some extra time, but sadly Planet Earth's QB1 threw high and outside, forcing the offense to settle for three points.
- Raiders TE Brock Bowers: Technically Gardner Minshew did throw a TD on this play, but it wasn't to his rather wide-open TE.
- Rams TE Colby Parkinson: Made a habit of crying to the refs after seemingly every incomplete target thrown his way Sunday, but there was one from four yards out that seemingly had every chance to be a TD … with a better pass.
- Commanders TE Zach Ertz: Was missed on what should have been an easy five-yard TD and again on a deep shot down the seam that could have produced 40-plus yards with a better throw.
Also note: Steelers TE Connor Heyward (70), 49ers WR Jauan Jennings (21), Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (28) and Giants WR Darius Slayton (13) were overthrown on potential scores, although I didn't deem their respective misses to be quite as sheeshy as the ones listed above.
Man, these sucked. Of course, arguably the only thing sheesh-ier than near-miss TDs are scores that were initially counted … until they weren't.
Ja'Lynn Polk might have cost Jacoby Brissett his job
The Patriots were down five with just over a minute remaining in the fourth quarter and driving. QB Jacoby Brissett dropped back in a (rare) clean pocket and delivered a strike down the middle to rookie WR Ja'Lynn Polk, who initially seemed to tap both feet down inbounds for the electric go-ahead TD.
Or not. While Polk did indeed get all of his toes down inbounds, his right heel landed out of bounds, thus causing the incompletion.
The ruling caused a bit of backlash on social media due to the reality that you can drag a toe if you face forwards, but when facing backwards the catch won't count due to your heel landing out of bounds. Polk went to Instagram himself to point out the sheeshy nature of the rule.
The Patriots would go on to lose the game, and now head coach Jerod Mayo seems to be leaning towards making a QB change. It's safe to say the team might not have been so critical had the near-miss TD counted and resulted in a W, but hey, it is a game of inches after all.
Speaking of the officials finding a way to make their presence felt…
Touchdown! Yay! Oh No: Flag.
TDs usually get nullified by a penalty for a good reason, but that doesn’t make the roller coaster of adrenaline any less sheeshful for fantasy managers to deal with.
In Week 5 there were four such instances:
- Bears RB D'Andre Swift: Scored a short one-yard TD that was wiped out by an illegal shift penalty. The Bears then went back to Swift, who got the offense back to the 1-yard line … and then had to watch Roschon Johnson vulture the TD. Sheesh.
- Bears QB Caleb Williams: Ran in for a TD from one yard out, but the officials were quick to catch the illegal clipping penalty and marched the offense back 15 yards. They had to settle for a field goal on the drive.
- Browns RB D'Onta Foreman: Technically didn't have a TD officially nullified, but that was because a false start penalty blew what sure looked ready to be a walk-in one-yard TD dead before it could officially be nullified.
- Chiefs TE Noah Gray: Patrick Mahomes found his OTHER TE Noah Gray for a short eight-yard TD in the 2nd quarter, only for the score to be nullified by a holding penalty. The Chiefs had to settle for a field goal on the drive.
Gotta love when officials insist on making the games about them. Wait, we actually hate that? Right. Of course. Let's focus on more of that hate then …
Throw the ball to Justin Jefferson and good things happen
Defensive pass interferences can be finicky and don’t always occur in instances when the targeted receiver would have FOR SURE made the catch.
That said: They are very annoying for fantasy managers to deal with when the result could’ve, should’ve, would’ve been a chunk gain — and maybe even a TD.
Just three players gained at least 10 yards courtesy of DPI penalties, but man were they sheeshy:
- Vikings WR Justin Jefferson: Drew a whopping 53 yards across three DPI penalties — the rest of the NFL combined for just 44 such yards before Monday Night Football. Also note Jefferson drew an illegal contact flag and was held once as well. Sheesh.
- Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy: Drew a long 46 yard DPI on an absolute BOMB from Patrick Mahomes. The throw seemed a bit long anyway, but Saints CB Paulson Adebo decided to not take any chances and tackled Worthy before we could all find out.
- Panthers WR Diontae Johnson: Gained 13 yards on what looked to have the potential to be a long TD with a better pass or, you know, no interference in the first place.
- Rams TE Colby Parkinson: Drew a 10-yard DPI penalty in the end zone to position the Rams at the doorstep of the end zone, where Matthew Stafford went on to find Demarcus Robinson for the TD.
Also note that Jets WR Garrett Wilson and Bears WR Rome Odunze drew short DPI penalties in the end zone to set up their offenses at the 1-yard line, while Vikings RB Ty Chandler (32) and Jaguars WR BrIan Thomas (25) had non-TD chunk gains wiped out on illegal shift and facemask penalties, respectively.
Our final category of sheesh involves providing a bit more context to some of the interceptions thrown last week.
Was that interception REALLY the QB's fault?
From pressure, to a bad route, to an essential arm punt on third and forever: There are quite a few reasons why any given interception might not necessarily be the QB's fault, even if that context isn't provided in the box score.
Good news for you, a scholar: Our Fantasy Life Sheesh Experts (just me, actually) have looked closely at each and every interception thrown in Week 5 to get an idea of which QBs probably deserve a bit of slack despite technically committing a turnover.
Specifically:
- Falcons QB Kirk Cousins: INT came on fourth and 15 with under two minutes remaining in the game; he had no choice but to force something downfield.
- 49ers QB Brock Purdy: His first INT was tipped at the line of scrimmage and went right to a Cardinals defender, while the second featured him getting drilled by a free rusher, although it's certainly fair to criticize Purdy for not getting the ball out sooner.
- Bengals QB Joe Burrow: His fourth-quarter INT came with the Bengals clinging to a one-score lead, but when Ja'Marr Chase takes the blame for running a bad route, we should listen.
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: Apparent new WR1 JuJu Smith-Schuster had an otherwise awesome evening at the office, although he was partially responsible for Mahomes' lone INT of the evening when a potential two-yard score bounced off his hands and went to the Saints.
I think I speak for all of us when I say for one last time: Sheesh.
Thanks for stopping by. We're on to Week 6.