In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by New Era:

When a receiver reads more pages on the sidelines than receptions made, it’s not good for fantasy production. A.J. Brown had 1 catch for 10 yards last week in a win over the Packers and the headlines were all about Brown reading a book on the sidelines.

Brown said it’s something he does regularly. As long as he puts up stats, fantasy players won’t care. Many may be reluctant to use Brown in playoff contests or DFS this week, but convenient amnesia is important. 

The Fantasy Life projections look good for Brown and the matchup is positive. Brown faced the Rams in Week 12 and caught 6 of 7 targets for 109 yards with a touchdown. The Rams are one of the worst teams at defending outside receivers. 

The weather is the biggest concern in Philadelphia. There will likely be snow, but the winds are in the 5-10 MPH range. Snow can boost offense. In Kansas City, the temperatures will be in the low-to-mid 20s and it will feel around 10 degrees. The temperature will be in the teens in Buffalo and Detroit has no concerns with an indoors game. We’ll have plenty of DFS plays for you below.

NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND DFS PROJECTIONS

 

  • Pete drops NFL Divisional Round DFS options
  • Where does Freedman rank a rookie RB in his early Top 50 Rankings?
  • Watercooler: Lions-Commanders will be a roaring good time
     

 

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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:

🧨 Ready for some Lions-Commanders fireworks? Light the fuse.

🪓 How many Guilloteenie drafts can you do before kickoff? Get chopping!

🦅 Ulrich drummed up Divisional Round prop bets, led off by a Philly Special.

👀 Need some help to play DFS in the Divisional Round? Here are our projections.

🏎️ What do Derrick Henry and Lightning McQueen having in common?

🔮 After coming back strong from two season-ending injuries, here’s where J.K. Dobbins could end up next season.

 

NFL Playoff DFS Picks: Jahmyr Gibbs, ARSB Set to Shine

By Christopher Allen

It’s only been a few weeks, and I already miss building rosters.

To be clear, I mean the drafting part. I need a few (or seven) months to recharge and get back into the managing aspect of this game we play. Anyway, I went through a thought exercise about how the market will look next season. Honestly, I could draft right now. But let’s get through the playoffs first.

Single-week contests are all we’ve got left. Of course, there’s a strategic element to the format. Rostership rates, stacking, and projecting game flow all play a part in constructing a winning squad. However, “playing the best plays” can put you in contention. So, using our tools, I found some of the popular and off-the-board DFS options to consider for the Divisional Round.

Running Back

Jahmyr Gibbs, DET ($7,700)

Let’s do a thought exercise using our projections. To be clear, I’m using what’s available on the site. So, if I’m wrong, it’s Dwain McFarland’s fault. But let me try something.

Rushing: 16.4 (attempts projection), 54.3% (team share)

Receiving: 3.6, 12.7%

Despite David Montgomery logging full practices, Gibbs should maintain the lead on the backfield touches. He handled the third-most touches per game (25.7) and averaged the most PPG of any RB (32.6) with Montgomery out. A 55-45 or 60-40 split isn’t unreasonable. Even better, this type of workload for rushers against the Commanders has been productive.

Fifteen RBs have secured over 50.0% of the carries against the Commanders. Only five didn’t find the end zone. Regardless, as a group, they averaged 17.3 PPR PPG against Washington. That’s just ahead of Josh Jacobs (i.e. the RB7). If we add in the target share, the mean jumps to 20.9 PPG. While it’s easy to envision HC Dan Campbell welcoming Montgomery back with a goal-line TD, Gibbs’ explosiveness as a runner and utility as a receiver justify his cost and popularity heading into Saturday night.

THE REST OF CHRIS ALLEN’S NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND DFS PLAYS

Way-Too-Early Fantasy Football Rankings For 2025: Freedman's Top 50

By Matthew Freedman

We're into the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, which means that it's time for the true degenerates—those of us who live that fantasy life 365 days a year—to start looking ahead to the 2025 season.

No. Days. Off.

With that in mind, I'd like to present to you my way-too-early 2025 top 50 fantasy football rankings, which I hope will prove useful in your preliminary best ball, redraft, and Guillotine LeaguesTM endeavors.

As we move throughout the postseason and then eventually free agency, NFL Draft, training camp, and finally preseason, I will update and flesh out my rankings, which you'll be able to find in our Fantasy Life Rankings Hub.

For now, here are my early rankings for the all-important top 50, accompanied by some strategy thoughts, hitting the running backs here:

Running Back Strategy

I have 15 RBs in my top 50.

That might seem light … but I want to invest my premium picks in rock-solid assets, and few RBs seem like super-safe investments, given that the position tends to be more impacted than others by injury, surrounding talent, and playcalling.

So I don't want to put a lot of capital into RBs … but I do like a lot of the players I have ranked outside the top eight at the position.

And my favorite might be rookie Ashton Jeanty. In the early rounds, I tend not to focus too much on league-winning upside—but I think there's a good chance that the market will be too low (at least at first) on Jeanty.

As excellent as WRs Travis Hunter and Tetairoa McMillan and QBs Shedeur Sanders and Cameron Ward are, I believe that Jeanty (374-2,601-29 rushing, 23-138-1 receiving) was the best player in College Football last year and the one with a skill set that most obviously translates to the NFL.

Regardless of where he lands, I can imagine Jeanty being drafted as the RB1 in 2026 fantasy drafts, and that's because I can envision him producing like the RB1 as a rookie in 2025.

And if I have a shot to draft the RB1 outside of the top five this year, I want to do it.