DK Metcalf, Trevor Lawrence Fantasy Outlook: Week 6 Sheesh Report
- Seahawks WR DK Metcalf had himself a sheeshy Thursday night
- Hey, um, Jaguars: Could you try catching the football?
- Would have been a lot cooler if these throws were better
- Unrealized air yards are a helluva drug
- So close, yet so far away: Down at the 1-yard line, and no TD
- TD! Wait: Flag.
- What if defensive pass interference yards counted for fantasy points?
- Was that interception REALLY the QB's fault?
Week 6 has come and gone. Those 14 NFL games brought joy, laughs, and tears to football fans and, of course, fantasy football faithful.
Today, we’ll focus on the latter sadness and break down just how close some came to achieving fantasy football glory. Critics might call this unnecessary cruelty, while supporters could claim it helps with understanding the full context of what exactly happened last week.
Either way: Welcome to the Sheesh Report.
What follows is a breakdown of all the tilting, near-miss moments from Week 6 that left fantasy managers and fans alike saying, "Sheesh." I’ve watched hours of film and combed play-by-play data to help determine instances when:
- Pass catchers could have scored or picked up big yardage with a more accurate pass
- Pass catchers did receive an accurate pass that should have resulted in a score or big gain, but the ball was dropped
- Ball carriers managed to get all the way to the 1-yard line, but didn’t score
- Players scored or picked up big yardage, but the play was nullified by penalty
- Other random shit tilted fantasy football managers of all shapes and sizes
Let's kick things off with the one player who dealt with more sheesh than just about anyone in Week 6 …
Seahawks WR DK Metcalf had himself a sheeshy Thursday night
The boxscore will tell you that Seahawks WR DK Metcalf gained just 48 scoreless yards on 3 receptions during the team's Thursday night loss to the 49ers, but the film demonstrates just how close the 26-year-old veteran came to having a HUGE game.
All in all we're talking about Metcalf potentially adding 100 extra yards and 2 TDs to his production with one better throw and the absence of a mental mistake from Kenneth Walker, who drew the illegal shift penalty for failing to come to a complete stop on the opposite side of the field (it had zero impact on the actual play).
Say it with me Metcalf fantasy managers and anytime TD bettors: Sheesh.
Of course, the Seahawks' No. 1 WR was hardly the only pass catcher to come oh so close to putting up bigger numbers last week.
Hey, um, Jaguars: Could you try catching the football?
Drops happen during the course of any given football game, but the ones that would have directly led to 6 points tend to be especially sheeshy. Just ask Trevor Lawrence, who was forced to watch his teammates let 4 separate potential TDs bounce off their hands (or helmet) and fall incomplete.
Note that three of those drops came on the same drive that did eventually end in a TD; Lawrence's boxscore really would have only benefited from the initial 12-yard drop by Gabe Davis. Additionally, Lawrence wasn't perfect in his own right on Sunday morning and was highlighted in this column a few weeks ago for some truly brutal mishaps.
Still, these sort of sheeshy drops were all over his film last year as well, and the Jags as a whole lead the NFL in drops (74) and EPA lost (-84.1) since the start of the 2022 season (per Yahoo Sports' Nate Tice). T-Law not living up to his "generational" billing *and* Jaguars pass catchers underwhelming in general can both be true.
In addition to Davis (12 and 36-yard TD drops), Brian Thomas (15), and Christian Kirk's (5) inopportune drops, Jets WR Garrett Wilson (14), Bills WR Mack Hollins (8), Steelers WR George Pickens (3), Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (9), and Raiders WR Kristian Wilkerson (9, but he scored on the next play so whatever) also all let passes that sure looked accurate enough to go for 6 points bounce off their hands and fall incomplete.
Pretty sheesh stuff, although sometimes near-miss non-TDs should be blamed a bit more on the person throwing the pass in the first place…
Would have been a lot cooler if these throws were better
You know the moment. The receiver got open, the QB had a reasonable pocket to work from, the pass was there, the crowd stood up … and sheesh: Overthrown, underthrown, too high, or too low, and all that goes into the boxscore is an incompletion.
Example: Colts legend Joe Flacco missed WR Ashton Dulin and Alec Pierce on what sure looked to have the potential to be 44- and 60-yard scores, respectively.
Anyway, I looked at every incomplete pass that was thrown at least 20 yards downfield and/or into the end zone to get an idea of who just missed out on some big plays last—and believe me there were PLENTY:
- Colts WR Alec Pierce (potential 60-yard TD overthrown)
- Seahawks WR DK Metcalf (49)
- Jaguars WR BrIan Thomas Jr. (45)
- Colts WR Ashton Dulin (44)
- Bears WR DJ Moore (41)
- Steelers WR George Pickens (34, even though he still caught the underthrow)
- Texans TE Dalton Schultz (22, just a bit underthrown)
- Cardinals WR Xavier Weaver (21)
- Bengals WR Andrei Iosivas (10, but Burrow's foot was stepped on)
- Buccaneers WR Mike Evans (8)
- Bills WR Curtis Samuel (8)
- Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (2)
- Titans WR Calvin Ridley (26, 10-second mark here, although Levis was hit to be fair)
The Ridley experience in particular was ROUGH yesterday. Not that the receiving goose-egg was overly his fault, but there were a LOT of potential yards left on the field. Speaking of …
Unrealized air yards are a helluva drug
We can help quantity sheeshy missed downfield opportunities using “unrealized air yards,” which are derived by subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving yards total before taking the difference with total air yards to pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air (not including potential YAC) a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.
We're essentially measuring the total distance of everyone's incomplete targets. A high number indicates a player had lots of fantasy-friendly opportunities, but didn't capitalize on them for one reason or another. Cool? Cool.
ANYWAY: Six players racked up at least 70 unrealized air yards in Week 6:
- Saints WR Rashid Shaheed (149)
- Seahawks WR DK Metcalf (148)
- Titans WR Calvin Ridley (133)
- Broncos WR Marvin Mims (107)
- Colts WR Alec Pierce (105)
- Steelers WR George Pickens (71)
Through six weeks the unrealized air yards leaderboard is headlined by Browns WR Amari Cooper (504), Shaheed (478), Ridley (398), Courtland Sutton (397), and Metcalf (387). Obviously, Cooper hasn't gotten much (any?) help from his QB this season, although he also hasn't exactly helped matters by dropping 6 passes—more than anyone not named Darius Slayton (7).
Rough stuff here indeed, although our next category of sheesh is especially tilting for fantasy managers and anytime TD bettors to deal with.
So close, yet so far away: Down at the 1-yard line, and no TD
Getting all the way to the 1-yard line but failing to score a TD is objectively a sheeshy feeling—particularly when fantasy managers are forced to watch someone else vulture away the score that was SO CLOSE to belonging to them.
Here’s the full list of Week 6’s players who managed to get the football within three feet of the goal line, but not quite across the plane, and ultimately didn’t score later on the same drive:
- Raiders RB Ameer Abdullah (x2, same drive, lost a fumble)
- Bills RB Ray Davis (x2, same drive)
- Lions RB David Montgomery
- Commanders RB Austin Ekeler
- Bengals WR Tee Higgins
- Bears WR DJ Moore
- Lions WR Tim Patrick
- Commanders TE Zach Ertz
- Seahawks QB Geno Smith
Plenty of these guys still put up solid numbers, but fantasy managers can certainly imagine what it would've been like had they managed to gain just 1 single yard more on those respective runs. Sheesh.
Man, these sucked. Of course, arguably the only thing sheesh-ier than near-miss TDs are scores that were initially counted … until they weren't.
TD! Wait: Flag.
TDs usually get nullified by a penalty for a good reason, but that doesn’t make the roller coaster of adrenaline any less sheeshful for fantasy managers to deal with.
In Week 6 there were six such instances:
- Seahawks WR DK Metcalf (52): Aforementioned score was taken off the board when Kenneth Walker didn't come set before the snap, leading to the illegal-shift penalty.
- Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth (14): Made a pretty great contested catch between a few defenders for the score … only for the points to be taken off the board after it was deemed Justin Fields had crossed the line of scrimmage before releasing the ball.
- Lions WR Jameson Williams (10): Nearly had a second TD to his total, but the score was nullified on an OPI by Jahmyr Gibbs that sprung the TD in the first place.
- Raiders RB Alexander Mattison (6): His short TD reception was sadly nullified by an ineligible-man-downfield penalty.
- Jets RB Braelon Allen (4): Short TD run sfwas nullified on a hold which was SUPER surprising given the flag-free nature of the Jets-Bills Monday night football clash.
- Bengals RB Chase Brown (1): Initially appeared to walk into the end zone, but the TD sure did seem to be made possible by Bengals G Cordell Volson tackling a Giants defender to the ground.
In addition to these TDs, Giants WR Darius Slayton (56 yards), Broncos WR Courtland Sutton (46), Saints TE Juwan Johnson (30) Raiders TE Brock Bowers (18, and it was sweet), Browns RB D'Onta Foreman (18), and 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk (17) all had explosive plays nullified for one reason or another.
Gotta love when officials insist on making the games about themselves. Wait, we actually hate that? Right. Of course. Let's focus on more of that hate then …
What if defensive pass interference yards counted for fantasy points?
Defensive pass interferences can be finicky and don’t always occur in instances when the targeted receiver would have FOR SURE made the catch.
That said: They are very annoying for fantasy managers to deal with when the result could’ve, should’ve, would’ve been a chunk gain—and maybe even a TD.
Just five players gained at least 10 yards courtesy of DPI penalties, but man were they sheeshy:
- Colts WR Alec Pierce (33)
- Commanders WR Noah Brown (23)
- Giants WR Darius Slayton (18)
- Giants WR Jalin Hyatt (17)
- Falcons WR Darnell Mooney (14)
Brown now has a season-high 70 DPI yards drawn. Say it with me everyone: Sheesh.
Our final category of sheesh involves providing a bit more context to some of the interceptions thrown last week.
Was that interception REALLY the QB's fault?
From pressure, to a bad route, to an essential arm punt on 3rd and forever: There are quite a few reasons why any given interception might not necessarily be the QB's fault, even if that context isn't provided in the boxscore.
Good news for you, a scholar: Our Fantasy Life Sheesh Experts (just me, actually) have looked closely at each and every interception thrown in Week 6 to get an idea of which QBs probably deserve a bit of slack despite technically committing a turnover.
Specifically:
- Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield (x2): Has nobody to blame but the man in the mirror for his first INT, but the second was a drop by rookie Jalen McMillan that then bounced directly to the Saints, and the third was deflected at the line of scrimmage.
- Seahawks QB Geno Smith: His first INT was an overthrow intended for Tyler Lockett, but the second sure seemed like it might be on Metcalf for rounding off his route and allowing the defender to undercut him.
- Ravens QB Lamar Jackson: Didn't deliver the world's most accurate ball to Mark Andrews, but it did hit his TE in the hands … before bouncing away and into the arms of the Commanders.
- Packers QB Jordan Love: Tried to target Bo Melton in the flat, but one problem: Melton fell down as he was breaking out on his route, directly leading to the turnover.
- Patriots QB Drake Maye: His first INT was a high throw that simply got away from him, but the second was tipped at the line and rather miraculously ended up in the arms of a Texans defender.
- Jets QB Aaron Rodgers: Was QUICK to point out that Mike Williams ran the wrong route on his game-sealing INT while addressing the media after the game.
Also note Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell (3rd and 19), Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (4th and 6), and Cowboys backup QB Cooper Rush (4th and 5) indeed threw bad passes that were picked off, but the reality that they were facing now-or-never down-and-distance while trailing by multiple scores in the 4th quarter makes it tough to be overly critical about their respective decisions to force the issue a little bit.
I think I speak for all of us when I say for one last time: Sheesh.
Thanks for stopping by. We're on to Week 7.