Dynasty Stock Watch: Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Dynasty Stock Up
Brian Thomas Jr. - Jaguars
The 2024 rookie WR class already looks like a special group and Brian Thomas Jr. had the best season of the bunch. In a year where not much went right for the Jacksonville Jaguars, he was one of the few bright spots. BTJ immediately cemented himself as one of the best young WRs in the league, finishing with:
- 1,282 receiving yards (3rd most)
- 572 yards after catch (4th most)
- 10 receiving TDs (tied for 5th)
- 2.45 YPRR (6th best)
He did all of this in a season where Trevor Lawrence missed seven games and the Jaguars ranked 24th in passing yards per game. New Jags HC Liam Coen made it clear that the offense will be built around Thomas in 2025, so there should still be room to build on his production from last season. He only ranked 29th in routes run, so if the offense improves and he plays even more snaps, it is very realistic for him to put up better numbers in 2025.
Thomas should already be viewed as a top-10 dynasty WR, and a strong second season would push him into the top 5. There is no reason to even consider trading him unless it is for an absolute haul of elite assets.
-Jonathan
Jameson Williams - Lions
After accumulating less than 400 total receiving yards through his first two seasons, Jameson Williams broke out in a big way in 2024. The speedster brought a new dynamic to the Detroit offense and averaged 17.3 yards per reception, fourth-best among all WRs with at least 50 targets. At times the Lions' offense seemed to run through him, and he delivered when it mattered most for fantasy managers with a receiving TD in every week of the fantasy playoffs.
Dec 30, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams (9) during the game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images
The breakout campaign was a huge sigh of relief for Williams truthers who had to defend his talent through the injuries and suspensions that plagued his first two years as a pro. If he had another down year in 2024, the bottom would have fallen out from his fantasy value, but now he's in the WR25-30 range with upside to keep climbing if he is impressive again in 2025. He's also only entering his age 24, season so he is just starting to hit his prime.
The biggest concern heading into next season is what the Detroit offense will look like with Ben Johnson gone. Will they be as creative in deploying their weapons? Will the passing game be less efficient? The turnover at offensive coordinator creates some uncertainty, but overall Williams is in a great spot to reward fantasy managers who stuck with him.
-Jonathan
Xavier Worthy - Chiefs
Xavier Worthy picked the best/worst time to have the biggest performance of his young career. I've never seen a quieter stat line of 8/157/2 than what Worthy put up in a Super Bowl loss. Yes, a few big plays in garbage time (feels weird to say that about the Super Bowl) made the scoreboard look more competitive, but anyone who watched knows the truth.
Regardless, Worthy is a rocket ship both on the field and on the dynasty ADP boards. Just take stock of this offense heading into next season—Travis Kelce might very well retire, Rashee Rice has a potential suspension looming, and the next best wideouts are Hollywood Brown and an aging DeAndre Hopkins.
The sky's the limit for this budding star.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will continue to reinvent their offense like they do each year, and Worthy will be at the center of it. His dual-threat ability combined with the genius of Andy Reid and the other-worldly talent of Mahomes will make him one of the most intriguing dynasty assets for the foreseeable future.
-Sam
Dynasty Stock Down
Chris Olave - Saints
As a dynasty manager, nothing is worse than seeing a promising young player's career be derailed by injuries. Although it is too early to say that is the case with Olave, things are trending in the wrong direction. He now has four documented concussions in three NFL seasons and missed the rest of the 2024 season after suffering two in a four week span.
At this point we have no real indication that Olave is considering retirement, but we have to acknowledge that he has an elevated risk of missing extended time or having his career cut short due to head injuries. Dynasty managers should be cautious about acquiring him in a trade and seriously consider accepting any trade offers that value him as a top-30 dynasty WR.
It also doesn't help that New Orleans is in a difficult cap situation and is unlikely to be competitive over the next couple years unless Kellen Moore can work some miracles. I really hope he proves me wrong by putting together a healthy and productive season in 2025, but I am concerned that we may look back on this offseason as the ideal time to have traded Olave in dynasty.
-Jonathan
Ladd McConkey - Chargers
Let's get a little controversial here for a minute. It's possible that Ladd McConkey has peaked as a dynasty asset after just a single year in the NFL.
I know, I know. I can hear it already, but let's have an honest conversation.
First, his draft capital was about the only positive thing about his profile outside of Career Targeted QB Rating. Yes, we know how much draft capital matters, but he was still the 7th wideout selected in his own class.
Ultimately, he came in at No. 7 in our Rookie WR Model with a Model Score (52%) that left a lot to be desired.
Second, his opportunity in Year 1 was unmatched. Heading into this past season, the Chargers ranked 1st in both vacated targets (250) and vacated receiving yards (1,790) from the season before. Whoever landed there was all but assured a massive opportunity.
To his credit, McConkey delivered in a big way. He easily paced the team in essentially every major receiving category. At the same time, we have to be honest – how much competition did he really have?
Looking to next season, it's clear the Chargers have to give Justin Herbert another viable option on offense. Ian Hartitz mentioned as much when he listed "Team Need No. 1: Skill-Position Playmaker" as their top offseason priority.
Not only is J.K. Dobbins a free agent, but so are wideouts Joshua Palmer and DJ Chark. The Chargers have plenty of draft picks and cap space (6th-most) to make some moves, so we'll soon see their plans for the offense moving forward.
McConkey rightfully earned every target he got as a rookie and will still have a significant role on this offense moving forward. However, his current dynasty value is WR12. If you can pivot down within a larger tier while acquiring future capital and/or depth elsewhere, you should strongly consider doing so.
-Sam
George Kittle - 49ers
Sticking with the controversial takes, it's time to start having a conversation about George Kittle and his dynasty value moving into 2025.
There's no getting around it—few TEs can truly win you your weekly matchup like Kittle. When he gets going, and he starts scoring TDs by the bunches, it's game over for your fantasy opponent.
The TE world is all about the haves and have nots. When you have one, a truly elite one, it's worth more to you than any potentially "fair" trade. Even so, we need to recognize when it's time to capitalize on peak value and move on, even if it means doing so a year (or two) early.
The 49ers' offense is about to look very different very quickly. Whether you like it or not, Brock Purdy is going to sign a massive extension. It sounds like Deebo Samuel could be moved this offseason, and the recovery timeline of Brandon Aiyuk needs to be closely followed. Toss in the aging and oft-injured Christian McCaffrey and this offense has suddenly lost its potency.
For now, Kittle remains the last man standing. While this should boost his fantasy prospects in the short term, I think now is the perfect time to cash out, tier down to another option, and gain future capital and/or assets.
He's almost 32, and while that's not a death sentence, his hard-nose style of play, coupled with the looming uncertainty of what this offense will look like in short order, is enough for me to want to take advantage of this situation while I can.
-Sam
