ESPN Fantasy Football: Mispriced players in the draft room
There's only one thing people playing fantasy football want in life and it makes me sick… VALUE! Just kidding, we also want to win — and what better way to do that than looking across different platforms to see where we can expose and capitalize on potential mispriced players?
Keep in mind: it's only July, folks. ADPs are going to change as we get closer to the season. However, it is a huge advantage getting into some of these early drafts (even mocks), because it'll help you hone your skills and really understand the board better on draft night.
Today we're going to break down the current ESPN ADP and compare the numbers to current Fantasy Life consensus rankings.
Jaylen Waddle, WR Dolphins
- ESPN ADP: 48
- Fantasy Life Consensus: 27.5
Is Jaylen Waddle the WR2 behind an absolute beast of a wide receiver in Tyreek Hill? Yes. Should his average draft position be this far down because of that? Absolutely not. There are plenty of teams where Waddle would be the leading man, sans Tyreek.
Tua Tagovailoa led the league in passing yards last season — this is an explosive offense that you want a piece of in fantasy. Waddle's 20.5 difference from Fantasy Life's rankings vs. ESPN ADP is way too big of a gap. Drafters might be being cautious after last season since it was his lowest fantasy output since coming into the league:
- 2021: (15.5 Points Per Game)
- 2022: (15.4 PPG)
- 2023: (14.2 PPG)
Oct 1, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) runs after making a catch in the fourth quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
Waddle did suffer some in-game injuries last season that impacted his game, but according to Dwain McFarland, if you exclude those three games, he averaged 15.6 points per game with a 26% target share.
Even though he's playing alongside Hill, Waddle's 3,385 receiving yards rank 13th in the NFL since 2021, and he has recorded the 16th-most receiving yards of any player in their first three seasons, according to ESPN.
I'll draft Waddle in this range every single time. And if you see me in a Dolphins jersey this season, just mind your business!
Kyle Pitts, TE Falcons
- ESPN ADP: 75
- Fantasy Life Consensus: 59.8
OK listen, does clicking on Kyle Pitts' name for yet another season elevate my heart rate and make me anxious? ABSOLUTELY. But we are focused on value right now, and we are way higher on Pitts than ESPN drafters. At this price, I'm in on Pitts, too.
Most fantasy players have been burned by Pitts, but this season the offense has a new look. I'm optimistic that new head coach Raheem Morris and new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson will help this team thrive in fantasy. Robinson comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree, so we should see a similar system as his — and Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell.
Kirk Cousins is now (or eventually will be) behind the wheel, and that's a good thing for Pitts, because (no offense) Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke were not cutting it.
There is a clear tier break from potential "elite" tight ends and it stops at Pitts. Let's all agree: we've continued to draft him because of the potential we see — he's an incredible athlete who is only 23 years old and could be coming into one of the best situations he's seen in a while.
Fantasy Life projections put Pitts at 101 targets and 184.4 fantasy points, good for a TE6 finish. Don't get me wrong, it's still a risk drafting Pitts in 2024, but at a discounted price on ESPN I will happily take the chance.
Jayden Daniels, QB Commanders
- ESPN ADP: 118.6
- Fantasy Life Consensus: 78.5
Listen: Jayden Daniels is going to be a fantasy cheat code if everything goes right. The rookie went second overall to the Washington Commanders, and while it isn't the sexiest landing spot, it's the rushing upside we should be excited about.
During his Heisman Trophy-winning campaign in 2023, Daniels led all quarterbacks with 1,134 rushing yards in 12 games. Fantasy Life projects him for the second-most rushing yards by a quarterback with 734 (!!!) and 306.7 fantasy points (QB10).
Here's what's going to happen during your drafts: All your friends will try to psych you out by saying Daniels will take too many sacks and only performed well in college because of the LSU offense. DO NOT LET THEM SWAY YOU. This could very much be a situation where Daniels is a way better fantasy quarterback than NFL quarterback.
Jun 5, 2024; Ashburn, VA, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) prepares to pass a ball during an OTA workout at Commanders Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Add in the fact that Kliff Kingsbury is back from his Thailand vacation, and Daniels could be even more lethal. Remember that Kyler Murray was named the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2019 for completing 64.4% of his passes for 3,722 yards and 20 touchdowns — his coach was Kingsbury.
According to ESPN ADP, Daniels is being drafted AFTER KICKER HARRISON BUTKER AND THE JETS DEFENSE. Come on people, don't let Ian Hartitz see this.
There are a lot of difficult fantasy decisions to make heading into the 2024 fantasy season, but drafting Jayden Daniels isn't one of them.
Marquise Brown, WR Chiefs
- ESPN ADP: 105
- Fantasy Life Consensus: 83.3
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes was given a new weapon in Marquise Brown this offseason, which should help unlock some of those deep balls that we've all been waiting for.
Sure, Hollywood Brown has been on the bad side of injuries over the past few seasons, but he is going to be just 27 years old this season and that still puts him in "prime" territory according to Dwain McFarland's research. Last season was a down year for Brown, who averaged a career-low 9.1 PPR points per game with 51 catches for 574 yards and four touchdowns.
We're still waiting to see what kind of suspension Rashee Rice will get, but there is a chance that the top three receivers in this offense (Brown, Rice and rookie Xavier Worthy) could split the fantasy goodness. Add in the fact that Fantasy Life Projections have Mahomes leading the NFL in passing yards (4,407), and this is still an offense you want pieces of in fantasy football.
Regardless, on ESPN Brown is going around players like Diontae Johnson, Javonte Williams and Christian Watson. Give me the wide receiver with Patrick Mahomes behind center, because ultimately the potential is limitless.