ESPN Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Going from Hero to Heavy RB
- Round 1: JJ or Chase?
- Round 2: Smash picking JT
- Round 3: Tipping Point
- Round 4: Pick of the Litter
- Round 5: Taking Command
- Round 6: Go for Game Breaker
- Round 7: Say Hello to Hollywood
- Round 8: Raheem the Dream
- Round 9: Snaking Jake
- Round 10: Dig Deep
- Round 11: Top Dog in L.A.?
- Round 12: Ride the Gus Bus
- Round 13: Still on the Board?
- Round 14: First Player Cut?
- Final Grade
Welcome to the busiest time in the fantasy football calendar! These next two weekends, culminating with Labor Day Weekend, will see millions of fantasy football managers worldwide huddling via online draft rooms and live drafts to pick the squads that will send them on a roller coaster for the next 17 weeks.
Don’t tell my leaguemates: I enjoy the food, beverages, and the trash talk as much as the actual drafting. Of course, winning is pretty good, too.
So to help you get ready, let’s jump into a mock draft using ESPN settings with the help of one of the jewels of FantasyLife+ — the Draft Champion mock draft simulator.
I was able to customize the settings to a 12-team PPR league using ESPN’s fantasy football ADP. It was single QB, two RBs, three WR, one TE and a flex. Then I narrowed the focus to Hero RB — my preferred draft strategy — and made the league’s preference lean more toward Heavy RB. Fantasy managers can practice with the Draft Champion to be plenty sharp when they get in draft rooms with the poor fish who still swim in those streams.
I picked the No. 6 spot in the draft order because that appears to be a point where tough decisions have to be made, as the second tier of elite RBs threatens to break up a run on stud WRs in the opening round. That actually brought on the first of many tough decisions, and the Draft Champion helped right from the beginning. The screenshots included are actually from the Draft Champion’s recommendations.
Round 1: JJ or Chase?
One of my favorite calls in the back half of first rounds has been Breece Hall, but I wanted to really lean into the Hero RB strategy. Having Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson on the board instigated a nice little debate between the two superstar wideouts.
Chase has the superior quarterback in Joe Burrow, and that combo has sparked three straight 1,000-yard seasons, including a 1,455-yard rookie-year breakout in 2021. Yet Chase has been “holding in” during Burrow’s first healthy and complete training camp in his own career — knocking on wood. Could that lead to a slow start? Something to consider.
Jefferson is playing with Sam Darnold for the first time, but last year JJ excelled even after missing time with an injured hamstring and catching passes from multiple backup quarterbacks. In Week 18, Jefferson went for 12-192-1 and elevated backup QB Nick Mullens to throw for 396 yards. Darnold — with expert playcalling from Kevin O’Connell, an elite WR in Jefferson, and a solid offensive line with top-notch tackles — could excel for the first time in the NFL. This decision came down to the end-of-season schedule.
Chase has potential elite corner matchups from Weeks 13-17 — against Pittsburgh, Dallas, Tennessee, Cleveland, and Denver. Three of those games are at home and one could be a fun shootout in Dallas in Week 14. But missing a large chunk of the preseason gives pause.
Jefferson, on the other hand, has a closing kick through the fantasy playoffs with four of five games indoors in Minnesota, with the lone road game in Seattle in Week 16. Even if Darnold falls short of 2022 Geno Smith or 2023 Baker Mayfield, he’s likely to feed JJ, who drew double-digit targets in his last four games of 2023. And even with the carousel at QB after Kirk Cousins got hurt, JJ was fifth in the NFL with 20.2 fantasy points per game. He’s the unquestioned alpha in this WR room and a choice I did not expect to be making here.
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Round 2: Smash picking JT
This is an easy pick for me. I want a Hero RB, and in drafts where I went WR in the first round, if Jonathan Taylor is there in the second I can’t hit the draft button fast enough.
He handled a bell-cow role when healthy, compiling 51 carries for 284 rushing yards rushing in his last two games of the season. He’s 25, playing behind the o-line that PFF graded at No. 3, and has Anthony Richardson along with a talented group of receivers assuring that there will not be eight men in a box waiting for him.
Yes, Richardson may vulture some goal-line TDs, but JT is as good a bet as any to get double-digit TDs and already has a 1,811-yard season under his belt (2021). A healthy season could assure JT is a first-round pick next year.
Round 3: Tipping Point
Jahmyr Gibbs, Isiah Pacheco and Derrick Henry are really tempting picks here. The Draft Champion’s virtual drafters may have dropped Gibbs because of news of his hamstring injury.
This is a much harder group to choose from than last round. I’m being water and pivoting off the planned Hero RB approach, going Gibbs here, as he’s the only Tier 3 player left on the board. That will mean going heavy WR for the next few rounds and maybe passing on a top-tier TE.
What sold me are the 234 touches Gibbs amassed last year, including 52 receptions on 71 targets. His injury history with hamstrings isn’t quite yet a concern, because we saw the electric skill set that totaled 1,261 scrimmage yards and 11 TDs last year. Year 2 growth with running backs is real. No scrounging to fill the RB2 role this year.
Round 4: Pick of the Litter
With WR a priority after going RB in two of three rounds, George Pickens falling here has been a regular pick in best ball drafts this summer. With a 39% air-yard share last year that was 10th in the NFL, Pickens could be in for a big season if Russell Wilson and/or Justin Fields go big-game hunting down the field.
The WR room is so barren in Pittsburgh that he has to go past the 110 targets from last year. Right? A clear WR1 in this round is good.
Round 5: Taking Command
Carrying over the theme from the last round, picking Terry McLaurin in the next round makes for three clear top wide receivers in this mock draft. As much as fantasy managers are drooling over the rushing ability of Jayden Daniels, he was the No. 2 pick in the draft more for his passing ability.
The Heisman winner had eventual first-round picks in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. at LSU. McLaurin is about to escape the group of receivers who fantasy managers wish had good quarterbacks and will be a great pick here.
Round 6: Go for Game Breaker
Dalton Kincaid or Anthony Richardson? Go with the tight end who could be the lead pass catcher for an elite quarterback in Josh Allen? Or go with the potential game-breaking QB in Richardson, who surpassed 20 fantasy points in the only two games he finished healthy last season.
My goal in best ball drafts has been to wait at QB and use the depth at the position to load up at RB and WR in the early rounds. This being a mock, it felt like a good time to see what a roster would look like with a player with the ability to finish as the QB1 overall in the sixth round. Time to wait on TE.
Round 7: Say Hello to Hollywood
A sternoclavicular joint injury will sideline Hollywood Brown for four to six weeks. Because the injury happened in the preseason, Brown could miss a game or two but should recover completely. Dr. Edwin Porras said the risk of reinjury is minimal.
Brown's deep threat ability is a great complement to Kansas City's intermediate threats in Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. He’s also the only established NFL WR in this round who is catching passes from Patrick Mahomes — we know you’re coming Xavier Worthy. After this pick, it’s important to hit on a top WR or RB for the bench to play in the flex until Brown is back.
Round 8: Raheem the Dream
Mostert should be the play here because of his upside in an offense that scored the second-most points in the NFL last year. The veteran RB scored 21 times last season — as long as he’s healthy he could at the very least be a flex play until Brown is back.
Mostert’s ADP all offseason has been perplexing, as his late draft spot seems to assume he’s going to miss significant time this season. He’s healthy and in Miami, where Mostert and De’Von Achane were a solid combo in 2023.
This selection is playing chicken at TE in hopes that either David Njoku or Jake Ferguson will be there next round. Both have under a 45% chance of being there in the next round according to Draft Champion. Fingers crossed.
Round 9: Snaking Jake
The gamble paid off. It’s time to hit the pick button on Ferguson. After CeeDee Lamb dominates targets for the Cowboys, there is a scenario where Ferguson could be the No. 2 target for a high-octane Cowboys’ that scored 509 points in 2023.
Ferguson saw 69 targets in his last 10 games and was the TE5 during that run. If he carries that over, he’s a fine pick among options who could be further down the pecking order in targets on their respective teams.
Round 10: Dig Deep
Jayden Daniels is still there, as are Caleb Williams and Brock Purdy. I keep reminding myself that they’re not in the same realm as Richardson if he lives up to his talent level. The pick here is between Romeo Doubs and Khalil Shakir. Let’s go with Shakir.
There are too many vacated targets in Buffalo with a collection of new faces for Allen to throw to. It was close, but the crowded Packers WR room brings on another gamble to see if Doubs will last to the next round.
Round 11: Top Dog in L.A.?
Depth at WR is important, and after passing on Doubs we find one of the most popular WR targets of the offseason in Dontayvion Wicks.
This decision became a seesaw with Wicks and Joshua Palmer. Chase Brown is tempting here, too, but at 71% likelihood to be there next round, it was time to wait on him and get the likely top WR for Justin Herbert in Palmer. Will another gamble pay off?
Round 12: Ride the Gus Bus
No dice on Brown — he went just before my turn. There’s an allure to taking Daniels here to back up Richardson, but that is still a luxury pick.
Even this late in the draft. RB depth is important, so Gus Edwards makes it back-to-back Chargers. Getting a running back who could approach 200 carries behind an elite offensive line for a Jim Harbaugh-coached team was the way to go with only a few picks left.
Round 13: Still on the Board?
Yes, Daniels is still available. I would have been happy getting Daniels as my QB1 late in most drafts, maybe a couple of rounds earlier. Now I have Richardson and Daniels with a pretty loaded roster. Color me happy.
Round 14: First Player Cut?
The WRs with upside appear to be dried up. Pat Freiermuth is still there, and yes, the usage in preseason games has not been what fantasy managers want.
But this is a backup TE, and while I considered Chuba Hubbard here, I just figured that at some point the Steelers would figure out a way to get Patty F the ball behind Pickens. Two Steelers? Well, this one could be a casualty of the waiver wire early in the season.
Final Grade
The Draft Champion gave me an A-, curiously saying that had I drafted Chase over Jefferson it would have been an A. It liked my QB and RB depth, even pointing out that while I had intended to go Hero RB, I ended up going more Heavy RB. It did rank my WR group 10th in the league, pretty curious considering Jefferson ended up on the squad.
I really feel that Richardson and Daniels could be league winners individually, and getting Daniels so late still allowed for a solid fantasy team. While trading QBs during the season is hardly ever possible outside of Superflex, if Daniels pops and Richardson lives up to the preseason hype, either of these players could fetch a good trade return.
Seriously, the Draft Champion did all the heavy lifting and made it easy to picture me drafting against my leaguemates. Getting to play around with passing on players to see if they would be there the following round was great practice for the real deal. Maybe you can earn an A grade?