As is the norm with the NBA season, the beginning has crept up on us seemingly out of nowhere amidst the start of the NFL season.

Ahead of the tipoff of the 2024-25 season, we’ve built a comprehensive draft kit to prepare you to dominate your season-long fantasy basketball leagues. Below are my favorite targets at the shooting guard position, as well as a sleeper, breakout, and bust candidate.

Note: ADP via ESPN Live Draft Trends and Yahoo Live Average Draft Position as of Oct. 7, 2024.

Top Fantasy Basketball Shooting Guards for 2024

While this section is technically titled “top,” these players are not exclusively early-round picks. They are simply a trio of my favorite players at the position for the upcoming season when accounting for role, production, and draft-day cost.

And two of them just so happen to be within the first three rounds of ADP. So, kind of “top”?

Anthony Edwards | SG, SF | MIN

  • ESPN ADP: 8.8 (SG1)
  • Yahoo ADP: 11.2 (SG4)

Availability is the best ability, and few players in the NBA possess the durability that Anthony Edwards does. His game (both in a real basketball sense and fantasy basketball sense) took a massive leap last season, as he posted career-highs in points per game (25.9), assists per game (5.1), and, despite the increased volume, field-goal percentage (46.1%).

Among all shooting guards in 2023-24 (categorized positionally via ESPN), Edwards ranked:

  • 2nd in points per game (25.9)
  • 5th in rebounds per game (5.4)
  • 7th in assists per game (5.1)
  • 13th in FT percentage (83.6%)
  • 15th in FG percentage (46.1%)

He ranked top-15 in these vital categories while playing all but three games (79, tied his career-high), having not missed more than 10 games once in his four-year career.

The departure of Karl-Anthony Towns from a production standpoint will be offset by the additions of Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, but these two also offer Edwards a new duo of players capable of taking over a game at any point. This could lead to higher-ceiling assist games and even an uptick in efficiency.

As long as Edwards maintains his elite durability and natural superstar progression, he offers one of if not the safest floors at the position in both category and rotisserie leagues. He doesn't struggle in a single statistical category, unlike numerous other stars around his ADP, especially on Yahoo where he’s the fourth SG off the board.

James Harden | PG, SG | LAC

  • ESPN ADP: 28.8 (SG7)
  • Yahoo ADP: 18.8 (SG6)

There may not be an early-round shooting guard that I’m more excited about this season. That terrifies me. We’re talking about 35-year-old James Harden, the once-superstar who’s mailed it in on not one, not two, but three teams in the last five seasons.

This season is different, though (he repeats as his wife and kids pack their bags and back out of the driveway … h/t to Ian Hartitz and Dwain McFarland):

While the “best shape of my life” narratives have become more of a mockery than anything, with Harden, I think there’s some validity given how out of shape he’s repeatedly been at the start of the preseason.

He’s a man on a mission, and I’m not typically a vibes-based drafter, but this feels different. I mean, seriously, how many Instagram posts have you seen of Harden out at 3 a.m. with Lil Baby? Less than ever, I'd argue!

On top of the good vibes, the departure of Paul George leaves a seismic hole to be filled on the offensive end.

Last season with George off the court, Harden saw a +4.3% boost in usage rate, a +7.07-point boost in scoring (from 15.73 to 22.08), a +2.51 boost in free throws made (+2.93 boost in FTA per game), and a +1.35 boost in rebounds (per FantasyLabs On/Off Splits, per 36 minutes).

This is not nothing.

While the efficiency takes a minor hit, you’ve never drafted Harden for his efficiency. He’s going to be a walking double-double and currently has the fourth-best odds to lead the league in assists per game (+1000; DraftKings). Plus, there’s a heap of contingent upside playing alongside Kawhi Leonard, whose 68 games played last season was his highest mark since the 2016-17 season (74).

At his current price, particularly on ESPN, you’re getting first-round upside at a massive discount, making Harden a priority target for me on draft day.

Immanuel Quickley | PG, SG | TOR

  • ESPN ADP: 70.7 (SG20)
  • Yahoo ADP: 55.2 (SG22)

If the second half of last season was any indication, we’re in store for a massive season from Immanuel Quickley.

Going from a reserve role in New York to a core offensive contributor in Toronto, Quickley’s pre- and post-trade splits are glorious.

*per gameNYK (30 G)TOR (38 G)
Minutes24.033.3
Points1518.6
Rebounds2.64.8
Assists2.56.8
Usage Rate24.40%23.50%
Touches41.475.1

Obviously, the boost in production is a direct result of a much, much larger role, but it’s still worth noting that Quickley led the Raptors in touches per game after the trade, even while playing alongside franchise centerpiece Scottie Barnes.

Having a post-trade stat line of 18.6 points, 6.8 assists, and 4.8 rebounds per game while maintaining elite three-point production (39.5%) puts his ceiling far higher than SG20-22, where he’s being drafted — and on ESPN specifically (ADP of 70.7).

You’ll have to stomach some inefficiencies that come with added volume (his field-goal percentage dropped from 45.4% to 42.2%) as well as an increase in turnovers (any high-usage guard comes with the same issue), but his ceiling is hard to match at this point in drafts. He’s a candidate to get steamed as we approach Opening Night, so draft him early and often this season.

Sleeper Shooting Guard for Fantasy Basketball 2024

Josh Giddey | SG, SF | CHI

  • ESPN ADP: 86.7 (SG28)
  • Yahoo ADP: 69.7 (SG26)

The 2023-24 season was not good for Josh Giddey — plain and simple, on and off the court. With a new season for Giddey comes a chance at a fresh start in Chicago, and it’s a landing spot that I think will produce fruitful fantasy production.

The Bulls lost both Alex Caruso (traded to OKC) and DeMar DeRozan (signed with SAC), leaving an opportunity on the table in terms of both playing time and production. While their guard rotation is still crowded, especially with the return of Lonzo Ball, Giddey should carve out a significant role given what we’ve seen from him in the past.

Over the last two seasons, no player on the Thunder saw more minutes without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the court than Giddey (1,577). His production over the last two seasons without the superstar on the court has been nothing short of mouthwatering from a counting-stats standpoint (per 36 minutes):

Clearly, you’ll have to eat turnovers. Giddey is always going to be somewhat of a liability there. The same applies to three-point and field-goal percentage, as Giddey has routinely been a 28%-32% three-point shooter and a sub-50% shooter from the field.

That said, stepping into a new role with no true usage hog alongside him or budding star (Jalen Williams in OKC) and lots of roster question marks (what will Lonzo Ball look like??), Giddey has the chance to carve out a role as a piece of the Bulls’ future and outperform his current ADP.

Breakout Shooting Guard for Fantasy Basketball 2024

Brandin Podziemski | SG | GSW

  • ESPN ADP: 131.5 (SG46)
  • Yahoo ADP: 120.6 (SG44)

When one door closes, another door opens. The departure of future Hall of Famer Klay Thompson from the Bay provides a much clearer runway for Brandin Podziemski to become one of the most important players on the Warriors.

Slated to start the season at shooting guard, the Warriors clearly have big plans in mind for Podziemski, as he came out earlier in the offseason communicating the expectation to shoot eight to 10 threes per game.

That’s incredibly exciting considering his already strong per-36-minute production as a rookie, averaging 12.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 5.0 assists to go along with 1.1 steals on 45.4% shooting from the field and 38.5% from distance.

His free-throw production is a definite negative, shooting only 63.3% as a rookie, but his per-36 average of 1.4 free-throw attempts shows that it’s a category where he won’t truly hold you back thanks to lack of volume.

On top of this, no projected starter for the Warriors stands taller than 6-foot-6, giving him a very stable rebounding floor and elite upside in that category for the position. If Podziemski settles into a role where he’s consistently getting minutes in the mid-30s, or even low-30s, he’s in for a wildly productive sophomore season and one that could produce league-winning upside at his cost.

Shooting Guard Bust for Fantasy Basketball 2024

Dejounte Murray | SG, PG | NOP

  • ESPN ADP: 39.0 (SG11)
  • Yahoo ADP: 34.1 (SG13)

This pains me as one of the bigger Dejounte Murray apologists, but the landing spot this offseason with the Pelicans has me hesitating to pull the trigger at his current ADP.

I had somewhat similar concerns ahead of his tenure in Atlanta having to share a backcourt with Trae Young, but Murray surprised, particularly last season, with a 26.6% usage rate. He’s coming off a career year in terms of scoring (22.5 points per game), but he’s in store for tougher sledding in New Orleans.

Last season, Zion Williamson (28.5%), Brandon Ingram (26.9%), and CJ McCollum (24.4%) all posted usage rates north of 24%, while Jonas Valanciunas wasn’t too far behind at 20.7% in his limited minutes.

Which players on the Hawks had usage rates of at least 24% last season?

Murray and Young. That’s all.

It’s safe to say that there are far more mouths to feed in New Orleans, especially with Trey Murphy lurking, too. Because of this, Murray also possesses less contingency upside than he has in the past, too. He would return first-round production in games without Young last season. This season, if a Williamson or Ingram misses time, there are still three other players (at least) capable of stepping up. It won’t be just the Murray show.

While I still think there’s a ceiling given the Pelicans’ complete inability to stay healthy and with Brandon Ingram’s name in and out of trade rumors, I’d much rather pass on Murray and draft someone like Cade Cunningham and Jalen Williams (on Yahoo), or Desmond Bane and Jimmy Butler (on ESPN) at the same position for a similar cost.

Additional Notes

  • RJ Barrett | SG, SF | TOR: The case for Barrett is eerily similar to Quickley’s, as his production took a leap post-trade last season. He’s only SG-eligible on ESPN, but his ADP of 103.5 as the SG36 off the board feels flat-out wrong. He’s a great source of points and three-point production at his current cost.
     
  • Trey Murphy | SF, SG | NOP: If Murphy can ever maintain a clean bill of health, he’s bound to become a hot commodity in fantasy basketball. He’s an elite shooter with massive scoring upside and logged at least two steals in 14 of 57 games last season. The only issue? He’s dealing with a hamstring strain. Proceed with caution, but the upside is real, especially if Brandon Ingram ends up getting dealt this season.

More 2024 Fantasy Basketball Analysis