Fantasy Fallout Of Anthony Richardson Benching (And More!)
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Paramount+:
What a day we had in the National Football League yesterday.
Within a span of a few hours, we learned that:
The Colts will be benching their young QB for Joe Flacco.
Stefon Diggs is out for the year with a torn ACL.
The Ravens acquired Diontae Johnson from the Ravens for a pick swap.
We have lots of ground to cover and fantasy fallout to discuss, so let’s get to it …
📈 Colts WRs on the rise. From a long-term, organizational perspective, the Anthony Richardson benching is a pretty big shocker. But that’s a discussion for another time and place. What we care about here is the short-term bump to the Colts passing game, which had hit rock bottom in recent weeks. Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr. are firmly back on the menu and Adonai Mitchell is a key sleeper to keep tabs on. I’d fire up the former two in a shootout dome game vs. the Vikings on SNF.
🚑️ The Texans take another hit. First it was Nico Collins, now it’s Diggs. Nico should be back in two weeks, but it’s a season-ending knee injury for Diggs. John Metchie, Robert Woods, and Xavier Hutchinson are the next men up, but this passing game has been struggling even with Diggs. Hutchinson is probably the most interesting to me if you are desperate, but I prefer most of the names Kendall highlighted in her waiver wire column.
🚀 Great news for the Ravens and Lamar … but not as much for Johnson. Diontae will have a very tough time replicating his 27% target share in Baltimore, where Zay Flowers and the TEs present serious competition. The hope is that a lack of volume can be offset with increased efficiency, and that Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor are pushed fully to the backburner. But as we’ve seen so far with Amari Cooper in Buffalo, the grass isn’t always greener on the other side.
The real winners here are the Panthers WRs. The youth movement will be fully underway with Xavier Legette, Ja’Tavion Sanders, and Jalen Coker.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Freedman’s Favorite Plays for Week 9 of Fantasy Football
- Watercooler: Week 9 Rankings are live
- Ian’s Manifesto: A Deeper Dive On The Colts
Freedman’s Favorites for Week 9
Here are a couple of Matthew Freedman's favorite fantasy plays for Week 9. Check out his full articles and rankings for more.
Bo Nix (Broncos) at Ravens
- Broncos: +9.5
- O/U: 45.5
- TT: 18
Nix has had a tale of two seasons.
In the first month, he was a modest disappointment. Since then, however, he has looked like an ascending first-rounder.
- Weeks 1-4: 3.6 AY/A | 23-110-2 rushing | 12.4 FPPG
- Weeks 5-8: 7.9 AY/A | 29-149-2 rushing | 22.2 FPPG
It certainly helps that he played the Panthers last week … but his matchup this week is almost as advantageous, as the Ravens have a QB-friendly funnel defense that ranks No. 5 in rush EPA (-0.172) but No. 28 in dropback EPA (0.196, per RBs Don't Matter). As a result, opposing teams—especially underdogs—are incentivized to pass against the Ravens, who rank No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (21.7).
Although I have the Broncos projected as +8.6 underdogs in our Fantasy Life Game Models, I still like the situation for Nix. With a trailing game script, he should have opportunities to attack downfield, HC Sean Payton is 42-28-2 ATS (17.7% ROI) as a road dog, and Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is 17-25-1 ATS (-20.9% ROI) as a home favorite.
Kyren Williams (Rams) at Seahawks
- Rams: -1.5
- O/U: 48.5
- TT: 25
Williams has a TD in every game this year (10 TDs total), and I have him projected for 0.84 TDs this week. I think his odds of finding the end zone are -245, which comes out to a 71.0% implied probability (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator).
Despite already having had a bye, Williams is No. 2 with 11 goal-line carries, trailing only Derrick Henry (12).
Whenever the sportsbooks post Williams' TD odds for Week 9, I'll be paying attention.
Use our Fantasy Life Prop Finder to find the best odds available for almost any player-focused bet.
With 17-plus opportunities in every game this year, Williams has an incredibly solid fantasy floor, and with WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua now back, the Rams offense gives him a high ceiling: Williams is one of the few RBs with a realistic chance of racking up 100-plus yards and multiple TDs.
The Seahawks are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (45.3%).
More of Freedman’s Favorite RBs for Week 9
MORE OF FREEDMAN’S FAVORITES:
- QBs for Week 9: A Must-Start In Mile High.
- WRs for Week 9: A New WR1 In Cleveland?
- TEs for Week 9: A TE Running Practicaly Unopposed.
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1:00 p.m. Kickoff
- Miami at Buffalo
- Denver at Baltimore
- LA Chargers at Cleveland
- New Orleans at Carolina
4:05 p.m. Kickoff
- Chicago at Arizona
- Jacksonville at Philadelphia
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The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:
🐏 The Return To WR1 Status for Puka Nacua. Rest-of-Season Rankings updates.
💋 The sexiest podcast hosts announced. Dwain and Ian were snubbed!
📈 Set your lineup early. Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 9.
🍼 Rookie WR leaders in yards per route run. No. 3 is surprising.
📷️ Incredible photo of Jahmyr Gibbs. Look at all those Titans.
😆 When you put it like that … ya, it doesn’t sound great!
Ian’s Week 9 Manifesto
By Ian Hartitz
And just like that: Week 9 is upon us. Let's break down some ball!
Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.
As always: It's a great day to be great.
1. What do we make of the Colts’ pass catchers now that Joe Flacco is under center?
Whether you agree or disagree with Indy's decision to bench Anthony Richardson in favor of 39-year-old veteran Joe Flacco, it's hard to deny how much of a boom this is for the involved WRs.
Put simply, Richardson was the NFL's worst passing QB by a decent margin this season.
We saw Flacco under center for 80% of Week 4 as well as both Week 5 and 6. The Colts' top-4 WRs put up the following targets and fantasy numbers:
- Josh Downs (30 targets): PPR WR8, WR17, WR14
- Michael Pittman (22): WR22, WR23, WR28
- Alec Pierce (9): WR96, WR11, WR103
- Adonai Mitchell (14): WR110, WR49, WR84
Downs is the obvious winner here. Ninth in ESPN's Open Rating and 13th in PFF's receiving grade, there's little doubt that the second-year talent has been Indy's best WR all season long, and now he'll have every chance to work as a consistent upside WR2-caliber option inside a passing game suddenly dealing with a weekly 300-plus-yard ceiling.
We should also expect more from Pittman, although he's disappointed this season with a putrid 1.44 yards per route run (3rd on the team), and has left a lot to be desired at the catch point. I'm fine getting Pittman back into the position's top-36, but prefer Downs across the rest of the season.
Pierce is also a wild card to supply some boom games; he does have three top-18 PPR finishes this season after all. Still, as the above target totals indicate, Mitchell plays a similar downfield role and accordingly has split up some of those fantasy-friendly high-aDOT opportunities. It's tough to not prefer Pierce the rest of the way—he's posted a 75% route rate in every game this season while Mitchell hasn't eclipsed 30% since Downs has returned from injury—but expect boom-or-bust WR4 production at best.
Up next is a Vikings defense that has allowed the most PPR points per game to opposing WR rooms, even if Brian Flores' crew has still been a good real-life pass defense (sixth in EPA allowed per dropback). Both Downs and Pittman are recommended starts as long as Flacco remains under center, while Pierce also warrants FLEX consideration in deeper leagues.
Speaking of QB changes …
