We are deep into the heart of fantasy draft season. We now have two weeks of preseason data to look at, and while that might not be much, it’s more than what we’ve had to work with up to this point. Our own Dwain McFarland has dived deep into all the utilization numbers from the preseason, while Sam Wallace has taken a look at the impact for dynasty leagues.
However, how do we put that new information to use? Average Draft Position—or ADP—is the clear answer. If we know when players are typically coming off the board, we can use that information to our advantage. We can grab the trendy players before our leaguemates and scoop up any potential values that fall our way.
The FantasyLife ADP Tool makes all of that data easily digestible. Want to see which players are coming off the board earlier in high-stakes formats? How about which players have risen and fallen the most over the past seven days? Want to be able to abuse the default rankings for whatever site you’re drafting on (ESPN, Sleeper, or Yahoo)? All of that information can be found in the ADP tool.
Let’s dive into some of the biggest ADP developments heading into your fantasy drafts.
Malik Nabers—the Discount Stud Receiver
If you only draft on Underdog or play in high-stakes formats such as the NFFC and FFPC, you’re used to paying a premium for Nabers. He’s coming off the board at pick 25.0 on Underdog—where receivers are always drafted aggressively—and he has an ADP of 30.2 in the NFFC. He’s going a bit later in the FFPC (40.7), but he’s still routinely going off the board in the top three or four rounds.
That’s an expensive price tag for a rookie catching passes from Daniel Jones, but it still stands out as a value per our rankers. Nabers is a special talent, and four of our five experts have him as a top-35 flex option. Two of our experts—Ian Hartitz and McFarland—have him as a top-21 flex option, which would make him a fine choice as early as the end of Round 2.
With that in mind, Nabers looks like one of the biggest steals of the draft in non-high-stakes formats. Nabers’ ADP plummets to 61.6 on ESPN, and it’s all the way down at 66.2 on Yahoo. This receiver with a borderline second-round draft grade per our FantasyLife rankings can be found at the end of rounds five or six. That’s massive.
As more drafts are completed, I would expect Nabers to rise on those sites in the coming weeks. That’s particularly true following a strong preseason outing with a 33% target share. Still, don’t hesitate to grab Nabers in Round 4 if he’s on the board in your home league.
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The Jaleel McLaughlin Hype Train Picks Up Steam
The Broncos’ backfield is a bit of an enigma at this point. They still have Javonte Williams as the presumed starter, with McLaughlin and rookie Audric Estime serving as his backups. Samaje Perine is also still around as a pass-catching option, though he is reportedly on the roster bubble.
How the touches end up shaking out between all those options remains a question mark. However, fantasy players are starting to take a stance on McLaughlin emerging from the pack. His ADP is up +22.6 spots on Underdog over the past seven days, making him easily the biggest riser over that timeframe.
High-stakes drafters have believed in McLaughlin all offseason. His high-stakes ADP sits at approximately 150, which is at least a full round earlier than it is on ESPN (165.8) and Sleeper (178.6).
From a talent perspective, it’s hard to ignore what McLaughlin did as a rookie. His average of 5.4 yards per carry dwarfed that of Williams (3.6) and Perine (4.5), and the Broncos’ coaching staff clearly looked to get him the ball whenever on the field: He was second among RBs in targets per route run.
From an advanced metrics standpoint, McLaughlin was also the clear winner in this backfield. Among running backs with at least 50 carries or 20 targets, he was 14th in explosive run rate, fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fourth in yards after contact per attempt.
If Williams is unable to seize control of this job early, McLaughlin is very likely to steal it away. He has operated as the team’s clear No. 2 back during the preseason, giving him an easier path to relevance than initially thought. With the talent clearly there, taking a stab on McLaughlin as a late-round flier looks more appealing by the day.
Zack Moss vs. Chase Brown
The Bengals’ RB room features another intriguing position battle. Joe Mixon is gone, opening up 257 carries, 64 targets, and 12 touchdowns from last season. Mixon led all running backs in expected rushing touchdowns in 2023 (per PFF), and that was despite Joe Burrow playing just five games at full strength. In other words, this has the potential to be an extremely lucrative role if someone can carve it out.
The most likely situation is a committee, and both Moss and Brown are coming off the board in a similar range. However, which player should you prefer?
The high-stakes drafters have leaned toward Brown all offseason. His ADP checks in ahead of Moss in the FFPC and NFFC, and that’s true on Underdog as well. That’s a difference when compared to ESPN, Sleeper, and Yahoo, which are all seeing Moss come off the board first. The gap is pretty large as well, with Moss going around 25 picks earlier in all three spots:
- ESPN: Moss (113.8), Brown (137.6)
- Sleeper: Moss (91.5), Brown (119.6)
- Yahoo: Moss (95.8), Brown (118.0)
That creates an opportunity to buy the potentially superior prospect at a discount.
We’ve already seen a bit of what Brown can do in this offense. Among 77 RBs with at least 40 rushing attempts last season, Brown was 12th in yards after contact per attempt and 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt. He’s also displayed some pass-catching chops, catching 93.3% of his targets and averaging 10.4 yards per target last season.
Both Brown and Moss got the second week of the preseason off, but in Week 1, it was Brown who took all of the RB snaps on the first drive. He’s also been the one generating the most buzz during the preseason.
You could argue that both players look like potential values in what should be a potent Bengals offense, but if you’re only taking one, Brown is the clear target.
