We are deep into the heart of fantasy draft season. The preseason is officially in the books, and while that might not give us a ton of answers, it’s more than what we’ve had to work with up to this point. Our own Dwain McFarland has dived deep into all the utilization numbers from the preseason, while Sam Wallace has taken a look at the impact for dynasty leagues.

However, how do we put that new information to use? Average Draft Position—or ADP—is the clear answer. If we know when players are typically coming off the board, we can use that information to our advantage. We can grab the trendy players before our leaguemates and scoop up any potential values that fall our way.

Our fantasy football ADP tool makes all of that data easily digestible. Want to see which players are coming off the board earlier in high-stakes formats? How about which players have risen and fallen the most over the past seven days? Want to be able to abuse the default rankings for whatever site you’re drafting on (ESPN, Sleeper, or Yahoo)? All of that information can be found in the ADP tool.

Let’s dive into some of the biggest ADP developments over the past week.

Kyler Murray's Price is Rising

Murray is one of the most enigmatic quarterbacks heading into the 2024 NFL season. We've seen glimpses of greatness from him in the past, particularly in 2021. He led the Cardinals to a 7-0 record and was the MVP frontrunner before suffering an injury vs. the Packers. He was mediocre after returning to the lineup in Week 13, and his subpar production has continued ever since.

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Dec 31, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) runs with the football during the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Murray played in eight games in 2023, and he posted the following finishes from a fantasy perspective:

  • Week 10: QB13
  • Week 11: QB6
  • Week 12: QB9
  • Week 13: QB17
  • Week 15: QB19
  • Week 16: QB12
  • Week 17: QB4
  • Week 18: QB14

Two out of eight games as a top-six quarterback isn’t terrible, but the price on Murray is getting more expensive by the day. No player saw a bigger spike in ADP on Underdog over the past week than Murray, who was up an average of +18.3 spots. He’s now coming off the board as the QB7 in fantasy drafts.

That feels a bit pricy given last year’s production, but our rankers think it’s spot on given their stance in our fantasy football rankings. Four of our five experts have him as a top-seven option, with Ian Hartitz and Dwain McFarland ranking him at No. 6.

Matthew Berry—who knows a thing or two about fantasy football—also recently declared Murray as his “Ride or Die” for 2024. Berry has previously done quite well with his Ride or Die selections, and he has Murray as his QB5 for the upcoming season.

The best way to get exposure to Murray at his increased price tag is going to be in ESPN drafts. His ADP is down at 83.2, which is significantly lower than it is at Yahoo (56.7) and Sleeper (69.9). That’s the type of discrepancy we should be looking to take advantage of.

What To Do With Rashee Rice

If Murray is an enigma, Rice is an enigma wrapped in a riddle inside a mystery. His production down the stretch last year was elite, but with increased competition for targets and a suspension looming over his head, it’s been tough for drafters to click his name this offseason.

That’s been particularly true in the full-season formats. While Underdog drafters have routinely scooped up Rice in the first 45 picks, his ADP on Sleeper, ESPN, and Yahoo is outside the top 80.

However, drafters seem to be getting a bit more confident in Rice. His ADP crept up 4.2 spots over the past week on Underdog, and the same could follow elsewhere. After all, we’re roughly 10 days from the start of the NFL season, and a suspension has yet to be handed down. It’s looking more and more likely that he could face discipline next year instead of this current season.

Then, this bombshell dropped on Monday:

On the surface, adding Smith-Schuster shouldn’t impact Rice’s production much. He was unable to make an impact with the Patriots last season, and his production two years ago in KC was middling. He’s not going to cut into Rice’s snaps and targets when he’s available.

However, “when available” is the key part of that sentence. Do the Chiefs know something that we don’t? Could a suspension for Rice be coming shortly? Perhaps this is just an insurance policy, but this reunion doesn’t make a whole lot of sense otherwise.

Personally, I’m still willing to take shots on Rice if his ADP hovers in the 80s. He’s an ideal WR4 who can provide WR1 production when on the field. But this news scares me enough that I’m not looking to overdraft Rice. If others feel confident enough to take him in the top three or four rounds, I’m going to let them.

Buy Low on Tyjae Spears?

On the other end of the spectrum, Spears has seen his price tag dip slightly over the past week on Underdog. He’s down approximately five spots, putting his ADP just barely inside the top 110.

That doesn’t make a ton of sense to me.

Spears is going to be a committee back with Tony Pollard, but that’s been known for months. Nothing from the preseason has changed that perception. From Dwain’s excellent utilization report, both players have played on exactly two drives during the preseason. Pollard played on 58% of the snaps and handled 50% of the rushing opportunities, while Spears has been at 41% in both departments. Drafters may be reading into that discrepancy that Spears is the 1B to Pollard’s 1A.

That may be true, but it’s important to remember that both players have played on two drives. The only reason Pollard’s numbers are higher is because his drives happened to be longer. Spears also punched in a touchdown in his first preseason contest, so the fact that Pollard “vultured” a score from him in their last game doesn’t really concern me. They may have simply wanted to see Pollard in a goal-line scenario since they had already seen Spears in that role the week prior.

Additionally, the receiving usage for both players has been encouraging. They’ve combined for six targets in their two games, and both players have displayed strong pass-catching chops in the past. If targeting the running backs is a focal point for the Titans’ passing attack, there should be enough fantasy value for Pollard and Spears to be relevant.

Ultimately, I’m happy to grab either of the Titans’ backs for fantasy this season. But since Spears consistently costs less, he stands out as the superior value.