Fantasy football is in the air. Group chats are arguing about finding a draft time that collectively works for 10-plus people, rankings are being updated daily, and hot takes are running rampant.

What follows are my fantasy football bold predictions for the 2024 season. Takes that vary in temperature but share one underlying commonality – each is backed by enough data and analysis that, if you squint hard enough, allows you to paint a crystal-clear picture of exactly how these scenarios will play out.

So, let's turn up the heat.

Garrett Wilson finishes as the No. 1 WR in fantasy football

Wilson is a touchy subject for some after investing an early-round pick and getting a low-end WR3 in return. The downgrade from Aaron Rodgers to Zach Wilson was devastating. Wilson did his part, delivering an elite 30% target share and 46% air yards share, but the QB woes kept his fantasy production in check.

His underlying data tells us he has a WR1 profile entering his prime at age 24; we just need more passing yards per game. Additionally, Wilson's target competition is low. Mike Williams, whose career-high target share is 19%, is coming off an ACL injury at age 30. Rookie Malachi Corley should get some action around the line of scrimmage as a yards-after-catch weapon but is a raw route runner.

The most significant risk with Wilson is Rodgers' health. When you watch Rodgers' film, he might not be what he was at age 28, but he can still make all the throws, and his anticipation and timing are massive upgrades over Wilson. Even if Rodgers is 70% of his 2021 self, when he threw for 4,115 yards and 37 TDs, that will be 100,000,000% (okay, that is a *slight* exaggeration.) better than the Jets QB situation last year.

Wilson checks ALL the boxes that lead to massive fantasy production – expect a similar leap to the one we saw from CeeDee Lamb last season. It's not too shabby for a player you can target at the end of Round 1 or early Round 2.

 

Kyler Murray finishes as a top-three QB

Bold predictions are all about natural resources. Which players have the right mix of untapped potential lurking below the surface that could result in an eruption?

At the QB position, rushing upside is the resource that can make fantasy box scores boom. However, it's a rare trait that most don't have — especially when narrowing your search to QBs with 4,000-yard passing upside. However, one player stands out when surveying the QB landscape after the top six names: Kyler Murray.

Murray's injury history is a concern, but despite those challenges, Murray has provided an incredible floor per game: He has never finished outside of the top 12 since entering the league.

He also has a demonstrated ceiling. The former No. 1 NFL Draft pick finished as the QB3 with 24.9 points per game in 2020, with 822 rushing yards and 3,971 yards passing. Murray followed that up with 22.1 points per contest in 2021.

Now he's over a season removed from a 2022 ACL injury, and the Cardinals added Marvin Harrison Jr. in the draft. With Harrison joining budding superstar TE Trey McBride, Murray could push for 3,800 yards passing and 550 yards rushing. Since 2011, QBs who have reached those milestones have averaged 23.5 fantasy points with a QB2 finish.

Murray will challenge for a top-three finish in 2024 and is a consensus top-seven pick in the Fantasy Life rankings.

The Falcons become a top-three offense, and Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts all SMASH in fantasy.

Atlanta has invested high-end draft capital in offensive skill positions over the past three years:

  • Pitts: Round 1, Pick 4 (2021)
  • London: Round 1, Pick 8 (2022)
  • Robinson: Round 1, Pick 8 (2023)

Unfortunately, abysmal QB play and bizarre personnel utilization by former head coach Arthur Smith subdued fantasy production.

Over the last three seasons, the Falcons averaged 195 yards and 1.1 TDs through the air, the fifth-worst production in the NFL. In that same span, the Falcons' new starting quarterback, Kirk Cousins, averaged the sixth-most yards (271) and TDs (1.9). Atlanta also added QB Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick in April, completing a massive upgrade to the QB room.

Zac Robinson, formerly of the Rams, will take over as offensive coordinator and stabilize the playing time of his star players. Last season, Smith's deployment of his stars was laughable:

  • Bijan Robinson: under 50% of rushing attempts in 12 of 16 non-injury games. LOL
  • Drake London: under 90% route participation in 7 of 15 non-injury games. LMAO
  • Kyle Pitts: under 80% route participation in 9 of 17 games. ROFL

Now pair more playing time with a scheme that gets its playmakers into motion more under Robinson's guidance. Over the last three seasons, a route with motion at the snap has been worth 55% more WRs and 21% more for TEs in PPR scoring. The Rams ranked third in the NFL last season (69%), putting Cooper Kupp in motion at 22% and Puka Nacua at 17% – while London and Pitts were at 3% and 12%, respectively.

It's hard to run so pure as an offense in one offseason, but the Falcons have threaded the needle. There's a world in which all three players lead their position in fantasy points in 2024.

Malik Nabers overcomes questionable QB play to post a high-end WR2 season as a rookie.

Malik Nabers has the third-highest grade in the WR Rookie Super Model since 2018. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Ja'Marr Chase slightly edged him out, but Nabers offers a similar upside. Given his talent profile and lack of target competition, he should be the focal point of the Giants passing attack, ranking 14th in projected targets, just behind Harrison.

Of the prospects that have reached the 85th percentile in the Super Model, we have a solid rookie-season track record:

Waddle is my favorite comp for Nabers from this group. When Waddle was a rookie, Tua Tagovailoa was not the prolific passer we see today. He averaged 228 yards in games where he played at least 85% of the snaps before Tyreek Hill and Mike McDaniel arrived. That year, Waddle had little competition and turned 138 targets into 1,015 yards and six TDs. I have Nabers projected for 142 targets.

Daniel Jones has averaged only 218 yards when playing at least 85% of the snaps. Historically, that range of passing yards per game has limited fantasy WRs, but Jones has never had a weapon like Nabers. It is hard to imagine him suddenly transforming into a prolific passer, but if Nabers helps elevate the Giants above 225 yards per game, the odds of a WR1 or a WR2 finish improve.

You can draft Nabers in many leagues after pick 50, which is grand larceny. 

We want to bet on outlier talents – even if their situation isn't perfect – that is why Nabers is one of my most-drafted players heading into 2024, and I have him ranked as my No. 19 player overall.