And just like that: Week 10 is upon us. Let's break down some ball!

Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

1. Three bold predictions for Week 10

Every week I'll put my reputation on the line regarding a handful of players I believe could outperform their general fantasy-related expectations. The majority will NOT work out—they wouldn't be bold otherwise—but will that stop me? Hell, no!

Without further adieu: Let's get weird.

  • Ravens TE Mark Andrews: The potential absence of Isaiah Likely (hamstring) could finally leave Andrews with the sort of full-time role that simply hasn't always been on the table this season. The longtime stud TE looked GOOD last week and now gets a Bengals pass defense that Lamar Jackson shredded for 348 yards and 4 TDs back in Week 5. I'm calling for 9 receptions, 111 yards, and 2 TDs for the Ravens' veteran TE.
  • Saints TE Taysom Hill: There aren't many more healthy bodies existing in the Saints' RB and WR rooms, meaning the team's 34-year-old human vulture could be leaned on more than ever against the Falcons' 20th-ranked scoring defense. It'd be surprising if Hill didn't see double-digit combined carries and targets in this one, several of which figure to be near the goal line. I'm calling for 80-plus total yards and two trips to the end zone for The Mormon Missile.
  • Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson: Happy TE week in the manifesto! Minnesota was happy to get Hockenson's feet wet with more of a part-time role than usual last week—don't be surprised if the reigning TE2 in PPR points per game reminds everyone what he's capable of at something close to full health. The Jaguars rank dead-ass last in EPA allowed per dropback this season; any close start/sit question involving a Vikings pass catcher should go to them. Give me a "y'all must have forgot" 7-85-2 receiving line from Mr. Hockenson.

Players highlighted last week and results: Tyler Allgeier (18 yards, 1 TD), Jordan Addison (51 yards, 1 TD), Brian Robinson (didn't play, hamstring, feel free to blame me).

2. Did any massive news happen in America on Tuesday?

Not really, but there were a few trades that figure to have at least SOME level of fantasy impact:

Bears trade RB Khalil Herbert to the Bengals

The Bears gave Khalil Herbert only 10 touches this season, but he previously posted solid marks in rush yards over expected in 2023 (+0.29, 18th) and especially 2022 (+1.29, 1st). Of course, so did Zack Moss (neck, IR), who seems to be the RB Herbert is replacing more so than starter/bellcow Chase Brown. Expecting Brown to get 90% of the team's designed rush attempts like he did in Week 9 moving forward was never realistic, but it'd be surprising to see Herbert work as a 1.B in a similar mold as Moss right away. For now, treat Brown as a low-end RB1 as the clear featured back of the league's 7th-ranked scoring offense, while Herbert is more of a speculative handcuff stash than anything.

Jets trade WR Mike Williams to the Steelers

Averaged a career-low 18.4 yards per game and 7.9 yards per target in nine contests with Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. Of course, Williams is indeed coming off knee surgery and could feasibly still be rounding into form, although Father Time also might have simply called for the 30-year-old contested-catch artist. It's easy to imagine PRIME Williams being a perfect downfield fit for Russell Wilson's moon balls; just realize those days are probably in the past. Big Mike could certainly still be an upgrade over Van Jefferson, but I'm not downgrading George Pickens from upside WR2 territory, and don't anticipate Williams being more than a boom-or-bust WR5 in the near future.

Panthers trade WR Jonathan Mingo to the Cowboys

Dallas hilariously sent the Panthers a fourth-round pick in return for Mingo and a seventh-rounder. Maybe a change of scenery brings out the best of the 2023 2nd-round pick, but I wouldn't count on it: Mingo ranks dead last in yards per target (4.9) among 59 WRs with triple-digit pass-game opportunities over the past two seasons. Best known at this point for his not-so-brilliant sideline footwork, Mingo would already be a stretch to call a fantasy flier BEFORE Dak Prescott (hamstring) was placed on the injured reserve list. I'd be surprised if Mingo comes close to cracking Fantasy Life's top-50 ranked WRs during any future week in 2024 and beyond.

Nothing too crazy in the NFL's trade streets, but that doesn't mean you can't get a little wonky in your fantasy leagues!

3. Who are some sell-high RBs ahead of YOUR trade deadline?

Two potential players stick out to yours truly:

Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt

Yes, Hunt is averaging the same number of PPR points per game as Jonathan Taylor and James Cook this season. He's scored 5 TDs in his last four games, racking up 22-plus touches in every contest along the way.

Also yes, Hunt hasn't been overly efficient with his opportunities (3.7 yards per carry) and has offered essentially nothing in the explosive play department: Only Zamir White (3.3%) has a lower explosive run rate than Hunt (3.6%) among 47 RBs with 50-plus carries this season. There's also been essentially zero receiving floor here with just 7 total receptions to Hunt's name this season.

This would all still be fine … if we expected Hunt to remain the bellcow RB in Kansas City for the rest of the season. Head coach Andy Reid mentioned last week that Isiah Pacheco is improving, and ESPN's Lisa Salters expanded on that sentiment by noting Pacheco, “Isn’t back in pads yet. But he had an important workout with trainers this past Thursday. Where he was able to do some running and cutting and he apparently looked good.” Ian Rapoport is on record saying that Pacheco is targeting a late-November return.

Add it all together, and we're probably only looking at another game or two of the Hunt bellcow experience in K.C. I'm a fan of attempting to sell him before this becomes a clearer reality to the masses—the following trades have been completed over the last few days (via Fantasy Calc):

Bills RB James Cook

Don't look now, but the Bills have deployed a +8% dropback rate over expected during their last three games—the second-highest mark in the league. While this could be good for Cook during certain games due to his receiving prowess, the Bills have fed him just 2.8 targets per game this season, as Khalil Shakir soaks up a lot of the low-aDOT targets that are reserved for RBs in most offenses, and Ty Johnson continues to be annoyingly involved in clear pass-first situations.

Credit to Cook for booming on the ground at various points of this season, but his +26.4 PPR points over expected reflect the reality that he's probably gotten at least a little bit lucky in the fantasy points department through nine weeks of action. I wouldn't exactly expect the rushing volume here to boom up in a meaningful way as long as Ray Davis continues to look like someone every bit as good on the ground.

  • Yards per carry: Cook (4.6), Davis (4.3)
  • Yards over expected per carry: Cook (+0.4), Davis (+0.2)
  • Yards after contact per carry: Cook (3.2), Davis (3.5)
  • Missed tackles forced per carry: Cook (0.13), Davis (0.31)
  • Explosive run play rate: Cook (0.11), Davis (0.13)

Two potential trades that have occurred recently that I like: Packaging Cook and Josh Downs for Jahmyr Gibbs as well as Cook for Josh Jacobs plus Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Don't give the man away; just realize this Bills offense is trending toward being more pass-happy than we've seen over the past 12 months, and Davis sure looks like steeper backup competition than we've seen in quite some time.

OK, last trade-related topic I swear:

4. What are the rest-of-season expectations for the traded WRs?

The REAL big moves at the trade deadline occurred a few weeks ago, and we've accordingly already seen some early returns. This begs the question: What should we expect moving forward from the trio of big-name WRs traded over the past month?

Jets WR Davante Adams: Back-to-back relative duds (3-30-0, 4-54-0) were followed up by a booming 7-91-1 performance against the Texans last Thursday night. Adams' releases looked crispier than ever during that big game; we've seen little evidence that the 31-year-old veteran is washed to this point. While elite WR1 heights are probably not going to happen as long as he's sharing the offense with fellow stud WR Garrett Wilson, don't be surprised if Adams makes himself cozy on the WR1 borderline ahead of some smash matchups down the stretch against the Cardinals (No. 19 in PPR points per game allowed to WRs), Colts (No. 25), Seahawks (No. 23), Dolphins (No. 3), Jaguars (No. 29), and Rams (No. 24). Adams will be a staple inside my weekly top-15 WRs as long as good health persists the rest of the way.

Chiefs WR DeAndre Hopkins: The 32-year-old veteran dialed back the clock on Monday night, racking up 8 receptions for 86 yards and a pair of scores in the "Rashee Rice" role that is making a push for the single-most fantasy-friendly spot in the game. While the artist known as Nuk might not overtake Travis Kelce as Patrick Mahomes' favorite target anytime soon, it's hard to not be excited about the possibilities of the team's primary underneath/intermediate WR considering the returns this season. Expectations should be held in check ahead of this week's matchup with Patrick Surtain and the Broncos, but get your popcorn ready after that for dates with the Bills, Panthers, and the Raiders. Hopkins enters the weekly top-20 conversation, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him zoom into WR1 territory in plus matchups.

Bills WR Amari Cooper: A wrist injury sidelined Cooper in Week 9, but he's considered day-to-day and tentatively not expected to miss too much time. Fingers crossed that's the case, as this new-look, pass-heavy Bills offense (+8% DBOE in the last three weeks) looks ready to fully embrace the Josh Allen experience, which should yield fantasy-friendly returns for all WRs involved. I agree with Dwain McFarland's sentiment that Cooper is a quality buy-low option, although the spread-out nature of this Bills passing game could limit his ceiling relative to Adams and Hopkins. Still, Cooper will be firmly in the upside WR3 conversation as soon as he's back on the field, and we shouldn't dismiss the potential for more ahead of Sunday's potential smash spot against the Colts' sad excuse for a pass defense.

Now let's take a moment to appreciate some of the better fantasy performers at the halfway point of the 2024 season.

5. Who deserves some midseason fantasy award love?

Good question! Here are my picks for five different honors:

Fantasy MVP: Ravens RB Derrick Henry. I could have gone with co-MVPs and included Eagles RB/backward hurdler Saquon Barkley, but that felt lame, so here we are. Shoutout to King Henry for leading all non-QBs in fantasy points per game this season; he's on pace to score 25 TDs and gain 2,163 total yards—not bad for someone who was usually available midway through the second round last August.

 

Waiver wire pickup of the year: Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield. Guys like Browns WR Cedric Tillman and Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt have a case here, too, but I gotta go with Mayfield, who joins Lamar Jackson as the only players with 200-plus fantasy points thus far this season. Mayfield is the NFL's only QB with 50-plus passing TDs since Week 1 of last season and has managed to keep on keeping on without the services of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in recent weeks. Not too shabby for someone who was regularly available outside the top-20 QBs in terms of preseason ADP.

Comeback fantasy player of the year: Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins. There were questions as to whether or not Dobbins would even make the Ravens' roster during the offseason. Now? He's sitting pretty as the RB13 in PPR points per game ahead of guys like David Montgomery and Breece Hall, among others. While his efficiency has tailed off after an electric first two weeks of the season, Dobbins remains a staple inside the position's top-15 options thanks to a workhorse role that has produced 16-plus touches in seven consecutive games. Here's to hoping this is just the beginning of what will hopefully continue to be a remarkable career comeback for the 25-year-old talent.

Fantasy rookie of the year: Commanders QB Jayden Daniels. With all due respect to Giants WR Malik Nabers and Jaguars WR BrIan Thomas Jr., how could it not be the 2024 NFL Draft's No. 2 overall pick? Despite missing most of one game and being limited by a rib injury in two others, Daniels is sitting pretty as the QB4 in fantasy points per game through nine weeks of action. Overall, only Cam Newton (23.1), Justin Herbert (22.2), and Robert Griffin (21.2) have topped his current 20.2 points per game average among all rookie QBs to start at least eight games in NFL history.

Fantasy bust of the year: Lions TE Sam LaPorta. Not exactly a good award to win, but yeah: Congrats? I'm leaving out injury-induced situations like Christian McCaffrey, leaving it between fantasy's reigning overall TE1 and probably Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Still, Marv has at least provided a trio of top-20 finishes and two big-time top-5 booms; LaPorta has yet to finish a week higher than the TE8 after nine weeks of action. Averaging just 8 PPR points per game, the second-year alleged stud has been outscored by waiver wire castoffs like Hunter Henry, Zach Ertz, Mike Gesicki, and Jonnu Smith. Pain.

Speaking of busts…

6. Has Bryce Young played well in his post-benching snaps?

Yes! Watch the flim!

The 224-2-2 and 171-1-1 passing lines haven't been phenomenal, but the former did come against the Broncos' stifling pass defense, and the latter probably should have included +1 TD and -1 INT if it weren't for David Moore dropping a score and Xavier Legette letting a pass directly in his bread basket get ripped away for a pick (as covered in this week's Sheesh Report).

It's hard to overstate just how low the bar was here after a disastrous first two weeks of the season, but Young's numbers have improved across the board following his “timeout:”

  • Weeks 1-2: -0.514 EPA per dropback, -11% CPOE, 31.8 PFF pass grade, 44.1 passer rating, 4.4 YPA, 
  • Weeks 8-9: -0.022 EPA per dropback, +4% CPOE, 67.7 PFF pass grade, 77.1 passer rating, 6.3 YPA

Now, those numbers are still pretty bad relative to the rest of the league; the +4% completion percentage over expected (16th) is the only metric that ranks better than 24th. Still, it's progress! And Panthers fans can at least bark at Bears fans about their No. 1 overall pick having better numbers during this admittedly tiny two-week sample.

Does this mean Young is suddenly destined to turn around his career? No, and he's not even guaranteed to start over Andy Dalton ahead of Week 10's matchup with the Giants for whatever reason. But hey, things are at least moving in a more right direction than they were before; here's to hoping the Panthers' pint-sized franchise QB has what it takes to continue building off his sudden progress—fantasy managers of Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen, and Jalen Coker would certainly appreciate it.

All that said: I would not recommend streaming Young in the upcoming weeks over the following QBs if you can help it.

7. What QBs should we stream during future byes?

There are still plenty of top-tier QBs on bye over the next month of action, so let's try to get ahead of the waiver wire scrum and figure out who to roster meow vs. later:

Priority No. 1: Chargers QB Justin Herbert (rostered on 43.3% of ESPN teams)

Has ripped off QB22, QB15, QB10, and QB13 finishes since returning from bye, all the while looking like one of the game's very best throwers of the football. The Chargers have responded by posting a robust (for them) +3% dropback rate over expected, and now even better counting numbers could be on the horizon ahead of winnable matchups with the Titans (13th in fantasy points per game allowed to the position), Bengals (29th), Ravens (30th), and Falcons (25th).

Priority No. 2: Steelers QB Russell Wilson (21.6%)

Turned in QB3 and QB19 performances in his first two starts with Pittsburgh, good for an average of 19.4 fantasy points per game—the 7th-highest mark in the league. A pair of matchups with the New York football teams certainly helped matters, but there are more winnable spots ahead against the Commanders (18th in fantasy points per game allowed to QBs), Ravens (30th), Browns (14th), and Bengals (29th) over the next month of action.

Priority No. 3: Patriots QB Drake Maye (10.5%)

Maye's 41.8 rushing yards per game trail only Lamar Jackson (56.1) and Jayden Daniels (51) at the position this season. Hell, he leads all QBs in raw rushing yards (and Kenneth Walker!) since taking over as the full-time starter in Week 6. The passing returns have been up and down, but fantasy managers can work with this rushing floor in winnable Week 11 (Rams) and Week 13 (Colts) matchups in particular.

Gotta love finding some high-end production on the waiver wire. Of course, just because a player puts one good week together doesn't necessarily mean more goodness is guaranteed to be on the way.

8. Fraud check: Which top Week 9 performances were real?

The following players ripped off sterling top-8 PPR performances last week, but that doesn't mean the production is here to stay. Presenting: Fraud check, where we (me) decide if last week's biggest stars are here to stay, or if we simply just witnessed a one-off boom.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (QB5): Mahomes registered his first QB1 finish of the season on Monday night and scored 20-plus fantasy points for the first time since Week 12 of last season. Getting DeAndre Hopkins more acclimated with the offense certainly helped, but so did a matchup with a Buccaneers defense that has now allowed 36, 27, 41, 31, and 30 points in their last five games. While I'd love to sit here and believe that Week 9's boom was finally the start of Mahomes getting back to partying like it's pre-2023 again in the boxscore, this remains a team happy to win with great defense and a ball-control offense. I'm not buying into Mahomes suddenly working as the top-5 QB you drafted him to be the rest of the way (especially Sunday vs. the Broncos), but hopefully, this is at least the start of something close to consistent low-end QB1 production.

Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle (RB8): Set season-high marks in PPR points (21.7), snap rate (73%), and route rate (61%) against the Falcons. Two problems: 
1.) Ezekiel Elliott was inactive, which is expected to change this week.
2.) Dak Prescott (hamstring) is out for at least the next four weeks, leaving Cooper Rush in charge. 
Kudos to Rush for having a nice win-loss record as a starter, but he ranks outside the league's top-30 QBs in essentially any meaningful advanced passing metric since entering the league. The Cowboys have some tough front-sevens to deal with in the near future against the Eagles, Texans, Commanders, and Giants. I'm selling the idea that Dowdle is someone who NEEDS to be in fantasy lineups until Dak is back under center.

Jets WR Davante Adams (WR6): Aaron Rodgers' long-time BFF has 25 targets to Garrett Wilson's team-high 27 pass-game opportunities over the past three weeks. But guess what? Both totals rank inside the game's top-8 WRs, as A-aron has proven willing to force-feed his top-2 targets with little regard for anyone else—something that should continue with Allen Lazard (chest, IR) and Mike Williams (traded to the Steelers) out of the picture. We talked about Adams' upcoming stretch of good matchups, and his quality 18th-ranked ESPN Open Score reflects the reality that the six-time Pro Bowler still looks plenty capable of creating separation at will. I'm buying last week's boom as a sign of even more big things to come inside a Jets offense that is conveniently (for fantasy managers) almost entirely focused around three key ballers.

Giants TE Theo Johnson (TE7): The rookie hadn't finished better than TE18 in fantasy land before Week 9, but the underlying utilization has been moving in the right direction for a while now. Overall, Johnson has posted route rates north of 75% in each of his past five games, and last week's career-high marks in targets (6) and yards (51) do indeed show an increased willingness to get this seam-stretching TE more involved. There are more winnable matchups on the horizon with the Panthers, Bucs, Cowboys, Saints, Ravens, Falcons, and Colts secondaries closing out the fantasy season. Don't be surprised if Johnson provides borderline TE1 production the rest of the way, although mid-tier TE1 production is probably too much to ask inside a passing game that we obviously still don't exactly trust.

Now it's time to get into some specific Week 10 goodness. Buckle up, ladies and (mostly) gentlemen.

9. What are the biggest on-paper mismatches in Week 10?

Every week I put together a group of charts meant to provide easy-to-decipher matchup advantages on both sides of the ball in a handful of categories. This includes combined explosive-pass/run-play rates, pressure, yards before contact, pass yards per dropback, and EPA per play. The idea is to have one metric to show a mismatch instead of always going, "Offense ranks X, defense ranks Y."

Without further adieu: The week's biggest mismatches in these ever-important categories. Feel free to click on any of the below categories for a full chart.

  • Explosive passing offense: The Vikings, Eagles, and Ravens passing games appear to be set up quite well. However, the Patriots, Titans, Panthers, and Chiefs aren't looking too hot at the moment ahead of their tough respective matchups.
  • Explosive running offense: The Colts, Cardinals, Lions, and Steelers look especially poised to do good things on the ground this week. Meanwhile, the Bengals and Chiefs, in particular, look to have their work cut out for them.
  • Pressure: The Jets, Bengals, and Giants look ready to provide plenty of clean pockets this week, while the Patriots, Steelers, Eagles, and Texans could be facing more pressure than they'd prefer.
  • Yards before contact per carry: RBs from the Ravens, 49ers, and Eagles might have more clear runways than usual this week, but the opposite is true for the Rams, Jets, Jaguars, and Chiefs.
  • Pass yards per dropback: The best set up passing attacks look like the Vikings, Ravens, Falcons, 49ers, and Eagles this week, while the worst look like the Patriots, Titans, Panthers, Broncos, and Cardinals.
  • EPA per play: Bengals-Ravens and Steelers-Commanders stand out as the week's most likely back-and-forth shootouts, whereas Broncos-Chiefs looks like the marquee defensive slugfest.

10. Ranking every game of the week from a biased entertainment perspective

I remain steadfast in the idea that no NFL game is inherently "bad." Complaining about specific matchups is ignoring the reality that relatively *meh* football is so much better than *no* football; we should NEVER dismiss any given 60 minutes of professional action on the gridiron.

With that said: Some matchups are indeed more awesome than others, so let's take a quick second to rank every matchup of the week in terms of what I'm looking forward to most through my own biased lenses:

  1. Bengals-Ravens. Thursday night football isn't supposed to be this good, yet here we are. The teams combined for 79 points when they met in Week 5—the highest combined score of the season to date. Vegas expects an encore, as no Week 10 matchup has a higher game total than this one (52.5).
  2. Dolphins-Rams. Both offenses have come alive in recent weeks after getting many of their studs back from injury. Funny how that works. One of three Week 10 matchups with a game total north of 50, the world deserves to see Matthew Stafford and Tua Tagovailoa trade fireworks next Monday night.
  3. Lions-Texans. This game would receive a nice boost if Nico Collins (hamstring, IR) manages to return, but even then watching this Texans offensive line fall apart in recent weeks has made for a rough viewing experience. Still, we'll be waiting all day for this potential Sunday night shootout—at a minimum Jared Goff and Co. figure to be more than capable of supplying their own entertainment.
  4. Steelers-Commanders. Jayden Daniels has been must-watch television all season long, while the Russell Wilson-led Steelers have been surprisingly fun during our two-week sample. It's always possible T.J. Watt and Co. turn this one into more of a slugfest, but it's still hard not to get excited about a matchup featuring 13 combined wins.
  5. 49ers-Buccaneers. Hopefully we get the much-anticipated return of Christian McCaffrey here. Even if not, both offenses have proven capable of largely keeping on keeping on even without the services of some of their top playmakers. The week's second-highest game total is a pretty solid indication that we should continue to see plenty of points from both squads.
  6. Jets-Cardinals. At the risk of falling into the always-regrettable Jets hype: This passing attack suddenly looks pretty dangerous, and there seems to be a renewed sense of urgency with every game more important than the last. Enter: Kyler Murray and the first-place Cardinals, who haven't consistently put their best foot forward on offense this season, but still offer a tantalizing enough ceiling to imagine a fun one unfolding on Sunday afternoon.
  7. Bills-Colts. Any game with Josh Allen deserves to be in the top-half of these rankings, although the Colts have gone from "fun bad" to "depressing bad" with Joe Flacco under center. Hopefully last week's piss-poor effort against the Vikings proves to be a fugazzi.
  8. Broncos-Chiefs. Any matchup with Patrick Mahomes can only rank so low, but points do figure to be at a premium here. Only Bears-Patriots (39.5) and Chargers-Titans (38) have a lower game total than this one (41.5).
  9. Eagles-Cowboys. Philly has been playing some great ball in recent weeks despite Nick Sirianni's best efforts to spoil their success. I'm mostly just excited to see the Cowboys suffer their fourth embarrassing blowout loss in Jerry World in as many tries this season (yes, I'm counting the Ravens game).
  10. Vikings-Jaguars. Both Sam Darnold and Trevor Lawrence have played more good football than bad during the last month-plus of action, although their lows are pretty, pretty, pretty horrific. Maybe both pass defenses are suspect enough to supply a sneaky shootout of sorts, but I have my doubts.
  11. Falcons-Saints. The absence of top playmakers on both offenses hurts the chances of both teams scoring in bunches. Maybe the Saints have one of those inspired post-fired-coach performances, but even then it's tough to get overly excited about the Derek Carr experience.
  12. Titans-Chargers. The lowest game total of the week does at least include Justin Herbert, who continues to make a few throws per week that undoubtedly piss off Dolphins fans to no end. This matchup would rank far higher if Will Levis gets back under center, not because he'd make things more competitive, but because of the memes, man.
  13. Patriots-Bears. Drake Maye vs. Caleb Williams would have ranked far higher in a preseason edition of this matchup, but now? Expect to see both rookies largely just trying to survive behind their respective sad excuses for offensive lines.
  14. Giants-Panthers. Hopefully sending these two sad excuses for NFL franchises to Germany doesn't start World War III.