And just like that: Week 9 is upon us. Let's break down some ball!

Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

1. What do we make of the Colts’ pass catchers now that Joe Flacco is under center?

Whether you agree or disagree with Indy's decision to bench Anthony Richardson in favor of 39-year-old veteran Joe Flacco, it's hard to deny how much of a boom this is for the involved WRs.

Put simply, Richardson was the NFL's worst passing QB by a decent margin this season.

We saw Flacco under center for 80% of Week 4 as well as both Week 5 and 6. The Colts' top-4 WRs put up the following targets and fantasy numbers:

Downs is the obvious winner here. Ninth in ESPN's Open Rating and 13th in PFF's receiving grade, there's little doubt that the second-year talent has been Indy's best WR all season long, and now he'll have every chance to work as a consistent upside WR2-caliber option inside a passing game suddenly dealing with a weekly 300-plus-yard ceiling.

We should also expect more from Pittman, although he's disappointed this season with a putrid 1.44 yards per route run (3rd on the team), and has left a lot to be desired at the catch point. I'm fine getting Pittman back into the position's top-36, but prefer Downs across the rest of the season.

Pierce is also a wild card to supply some boom games; he does have three top-18 PPR finishes this season after all. Still, as the above target totals indicate, Mitchell plays a similar downfield role and accordingly has split up some of those fantasy-friendly high-aDOT opportunities. It's tough to not prefer Pierce the rest of the way—he's posted a 75% route rate in every game this season while Mitchell hasn't eclipsed 30% since Downs has returned from injury—but expect boom-or-bust WR4 production at best.

Up next is a Vikings defense that has allowed the most PPR points per game to opposing WR rooms, even if Brian Flores' crew has still been a good real-life pass defense (sixth in EPA allowed per dropback). Both Downs and Pittman are recommended starts as long as Flacco remains under center, while Pierce also warrants FLEX consideration in deeper leagues.

Speaking of QB changes…

2. Should fantasy football managers trust Malik Willis if Jordan Love (groin) is out this week?

The NFL's never-ending stream of injuries unfortunately didn't come to an end in Week 8, as we have several more key situations to actively monitor ahead of Week 9.

Primarily: Packers QB Jordan Love (groin). Luckily he seems to be dealing with only a short-term strain, but the reality that Green Bay has a Week 10 bye makes Love's status for Sunday's NFC North showdown with the Lions iffy.

Enter: Malik Willis, who has put together a trio of pretty, pretty, pretty good performances during his only three extended appearances this season:

  • Week 2 vs. Colts: 122-1-0 passing, 6-41-0 rushing, fantasy QB22
  • Week 3 at Titans: 202-1-0 passing, 6-73-1 rushing, QB6
  • Week 8 at Jaguars (26 snaps): 56-1-0 passing, 4-23-0 rushing, QB31

Credit to head coach Matt LaFleur for drastically altering his game plan in order to play to Willis' strengths in these contests: The Packers posted a wildly low -18% dropback rate over expected in Weeks 2 and 3, demonstrating that this should be a VERY run-heavy offense as long as their dual-threat backup is under center.

While all Packers WRs involved become FLEX plays at best due to the potential for this passing game to finish with under 20 total attempts, Josh Jacobs remains a rock-solid RB1, and Willis himself is firmly on the streaming map thanks to his high-end rushing prowess. Consider: His 8.7 fantasy points per game from just rushing production in Weeks 2-3 trails only Jalen Hurts (9.6) and Justin Fields (8.9) at the position.

I'm comfortable firing up Willis as a mid-tier QB2 ahead of guys facing tough matchups inside depleted offenses like Trevor Lawrence, C.J. Stroud, and Dak Prescott. Sadly, Willis is closer to being who we thought Anthony Richardson might be this season than, you know, Richardson himself: The ex-Titan currently leads the NFL in both yards per pass attempt (9.7, min. 35 attempts) and yards per carry (8.6, min. 15 carries).

Of course, this isn't the only injury-induced situation to monitor in fantasy land …

3. Is Evan Engram about to ball the hell out again?

The Jaguars have not one, not two, but three separate WR injuries to worry about at the moment:

  • Christian Kirk: Broke his collarbone and is out for the season. Watch this cool route in remembrance of what could have been.
  • BrIan Thomas Jr.: Considered day-to-day with chest/rib injuries, although ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports the electric rookie WR could miss 2-4 weeks.
  • Gabe Davis: Re-aggravated his ongoing shoulder issue in Week 8. 

While Parker Washington and something named Tim Jones stand to benefit in the WR room, don't be surprised if TE Evan Engram proceeds to work as the de facto No. 1 pass catcher if BTJ ultimately joins Kirk on the sideline.

After all: We saw one boom after another from Engram after Kirk was lost for the season in Week 13 last year:

Engram in Weeks 13-18, 2023:

  • Week 13: 9 receptions-82 yards-1 TD (9 targets), PPR TE2
  • Week 14: 11-95-2 (12), TE1
  • Week 15: 4-28-0 (6), TE26
  • Week 16: 10-95-0 (15), TE2
  • Week 17: 6-60-0 (6), TE9
  • Week 18: 10-79-1 (13), TE1

While Kirk's average target depth is higher in 2024 (13.7) than it was in 2023 (10.7), the absence of the Jaguars' primary slot receiver should still lead to more targets being funneled to the team's low-aDOT TE (5.8)—especially considering Engram possesses more true WR skillz than most players at his position anyway.

Additionally, the potential absence of Davis, Kirk, and Thomas leaves Trevor Lawrence without each of his top-3 red-zone target earners: Engram has a chance to lead the entire TE position in overall targets inside a passing game that actually hasn't been too bad in recent weeks. Consider: T-Law has posted top-5 numbers in EPA per dropback, completion percentage over expected, yards per attempt, and PFF pass grade over the past four weeks of action after ranking 23rd or worse in each category during his first four games of the season.

The Eagles have played some pretty great defense since returning from their Week 5 bye, but that didn't stop them from allowing a combined 105 yards on 9 receptions to Mike Gesicki and Erick All last week. Fire up Engram as a legit top-5 option in fantasy land this week; the only TEs I'd definitely play over him are Travis Kelce, Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, and David Njoku.

OK, that's enough injury talk for one day … oh wait, no it's not. One more! That's it! I swear!

4. What pass catchers in Houston can we trust at this point?

Texans WR Stefon Diggs (ACL, IR) is done for the season, while Nico Collins (hamstring, IR) will miss at least Houston's Thursday night matchup against the Jets.

They deployed the following utilization behind Diggs in Week 8.

The obvious winner here is Tank Dell, although the second-year talent hasn't exactly reached the sort of heights that felt inevitable after his electric rookie season. Overall, Dell's receiving yards per game has cratered from 64.5 to 32.7 this season, and his standing as one of the game's more efficient pass catchers has evaporated.

Dell among 74 qualified WRs:

  • Yards per route run: 1.0 (80th)
  • Yards per reception: 9.5 (tied for 76th)
  • PFF receiving grade: 66.7 (57th)
  • Passer rating when targeted: 86.4 (58th)

Now, Dell's ESPN Open Rating is tied for 18th at the position, and it'd make sense if he improves as the season goes on as he gets fully back to 100% following last year's broken fibula and offseason gunshot wound. He's at least sandwiched PPR WR16 and WR31 performances around his unfortunate Week 7 goose egg; borderline WR2 treatment is still advised thanks to the reality that he projects as the lead target inside this C.J. Stroud-led passing attack.

Still: The struggling Jets defense still leads the league in fewest PPR points per game allowed to opposing WRs, as most of their problems in recent weeks have come more so against opposing rushing attacks than anything. I'm tentatively starting Dell ahead of guys like Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but I prefer fellow No. 1 WRs who simply have played better football in 2024 like Ladd McConkey, Cedric Tillman, Calvin Ridley, and Courtland Sutton.

While Xavier Hutchinson profiles as the next-most fantasy-friendly WR in Houston, he's totaled just 4 targets in the last three weeks despite having all kinds of newfound opportunity in this Nico-less offense. It'd make sense if TE Dalton Schultz works as the second-most productive member of this passing game, but even then it's tough to get TOO excited considering the ex-Cowboy hasn't posted a finish better than TE19 this season.

Sad times indeed, but hey, let's turn that frown upside down and focus on something more positive: Another WR trade!

4. Who won the Diontae Johnson trade?

Definitely not Bryce Young! But any time you have a chance to trade your No. 1 WR and a sixth-round pick in exchange for … a fifth-round pick, you have to do it, right?

Kudos to the Ravens for adding anyone's idea of a quality WR. Johnson has been one of the league's best separators for the best half decade, and 8-122-1, 7-83-1, and 6-78-1 performances this season reflect the reality that this is still a very good football player.

That said: Adding Johnson to a passing game that was already short on excess target volume isn't exactly ideal for the involved pass catchers. Each of Zay Flowers and (especially) Rashod Bateman deserve a downgrade in the ol’ fantasy ranks, while neither Mark Andrews nor Isaiah Likely should exactly be upgraded with one extra qualified mouth to feed now on the field. For now, Flowers is the only recommended start of the lot ahead of a tough Week 9 matchup against Patrick Surtain and the Broncos.

Of course, this is great news for Lamar Jackson, but it's not like the current QB1 in fantasy land can really be moved any higher up the ranks, anyway.

As for the Panthers, Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, and a likely returning Adam Thielen (hamstring) now profile as starters in three-WR sets for a passing game currently led by arguably the single-worst QB in the league. Each deserves a slight upgrade due to the condensed target volume suddenly at hand, although it's tough to exactly call any of them "must start" options ahead of a matchup with the same Saints defense that limited this group to just 10 points and 135 passing yards back in Week 1.

I'd be most willing to put a chip on Legette moving forward, although Coker has flashed, and Thielen certainly has the most history with Young. While there will probably be a few boom games throughout the rest of the season—these are finely tuned athletic machines after all—the most likely answer to which Panthers WR you want in your fantasy lineup is probably just, "No."

Of course, sometimes a great matchup can be reason enough to take a more thoughtful risk on players like this. Doesn't it sound cool to be ahead of the game on future one-week boom players? Guys benefiting from a randomly awesome matchup perhaps? Hmm …

6. What teams have favorable upcoming schedules by position?

I put together some charts that I consider "cool" and "helpful" highlighting each position's upcoming strength of schedule in terms of the PPR points per game allowed over the next five weeks.

*Law and Order Music*

These are their stories:

 

  • Quarterback: The Giants, Eagles, Panthers, Jets, and Steelers QBs have the best schedules over the next five weeks, while the Browns, Packers, Ravens, Rams, and Patriots have the worst. I'm not against streaming Aaron Rodgers here—don't be surprised if the Jets (finally) catch their stride a bit on offense with upcoming matchups with the Texans, Cardinals, Colts, Seahawks, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Rams on the horizon.
  • Running back: The Giants, 49ers, Chiefs, Dolphins, and Rams backfields have the easiest upcoming schedules, while the Jaguars, Broncos, Chargers, Ravens, and Steelers have the toughest. Hopefully Tyrone Tracy (concussion) is healthy enough to take advantage of most of these spots, while we could see Christian McCaffrey (Achilles, IR) and Isiah Pacheco (fibula, IR) really make up for lost time down the stretch.
  • Wide receiver: Pass catchers from the Jaguars, Bears, Steelers, Eagles, and Saints look ready to boom with regularity in the coming weeks, while the Raiders, Patriots, Ravens, Browns, and Bills might have a tougher time putting up good numbers. Don't be surprised if George Pickens and Chris Olave dominate as their offense's clear-cut No. 1 options against these relatively easy stretches.
  • Tight end: The 49ers, Saints, Eagles, Giants, and Bengals are popping up as having the best upcoming schedules for their TEs, while the Jaguars, Cowboys, Colts, Packers, and Titans have the worst. I wouldn't be too worried about Evan Engram's prospects; high-end volume tends to outweigh perceived bad on-paper matchups, and he should have plenty of that as long as this Jacksonville WR room remains a walking graveyard.

What's that? You want DST and kicker information, too? I refuse to help you with the latter, but I GUESS we can discuss the former. You can check out a full chart of the matchups here.

The Chargers' league-best scoring defense gets another pair of smashable matchups with the Browns and Titans before being forced to play some truly tough offenses for pretty much the first time all season. They would remain my preferred group in the near term, but they're only available in 39.2% of ESPN leagues at the moment.

The following two groups are available in over 60% of leagues and should be capable of providing multiple weeks of goodness in November:

  • Commanders (19.8% rostered): This group could arguably get you all the way through Week 13: The only truly concerning matchup before then are the Eagles in Week 11, otherwise Dan Quinn's group figures to be in good shape against the Giants, Steelers, Cowboys, and Titans. Note that Washington has allowed more than 15 points or 310 yards just once in their last five games (against the Ravens).
  • Saints (38.5% rostered): There are three straight winnable spots here against the Panthers, Falcons, and Browns prior to their Week 12 bye. While this group has struggled a bit in recent weeks, getting Derek Carr back under center to limit turnovers should do wonders.

Let's stick with the theme of strengthening those rosters by looking at some potential handcuff stashes that are available in more leagues than not.

7. Who are some handcuffs worth stashing if you have room?

I used a sub-25% ownership on ESPN threshold here. If these RBs still aren't available in your league, good for you. But yeah, otherwise, consider stashing them!

  • Jets RB Braelon Allen (24.7%): Featured in Dwain McFarland's ever-excellent Week 9 Utilization Report, Allen is a prime "FLEX with benefits" option who will occasionally fall into the end zone during a normal week, but the upside is sky high here should workhorse RB Breece Hall ever be forced out of action.
  • Rams RB Blake Corum (16.8%): This remains the Kyren Williams show, but we've at least seen enough from Corum to have a solid level of certainty that he is the next man up over Ronnie Rivers. Sean McVay has been far more willing to lean on one single RB than most over the years; Corum would instantly be knocking on the fantasy RB1 door should Williams ever miss any action.
  • Bills RB Ray Davis (16.7%): All Davis did in his lone game with James Cook sidelined was put up electric 20-97-0 rushing and 3-55-0 receiving lines; he's the confirmed next-man-up inside the league's fifth-ranked scoring offense. It's tough to complain about that potential upside down the stretch. 
  • Cardinals RB Trey Benson (16.5%): Benson is in a similar position as Davis: There's not much standalone value here, but we've seen enough in backup duty to be confident that Benson is the next-man-up for all the early-down work if James Conner goes down, even if Emari Demarcado (Ty Johnson in Davis' case) gets more work in a normal week.
  • Bears RB Roschon Johnson (12%): The Bears' goal-line RB has rammed in 4 TDs in his last four games, while Khalil Herbert hasn't received a touch since Week 3. Johnson has also received more work as a receiver than Herbert; he'd be in the top-15 conversation in a hurry if D'Andre Swift missed any action.  
  • Dolphins RB Jaylen Wright (6.9%): An injury to either De'Von Achane or Raheem Mostert away from likely immediately sliding into a double-digit touch role. Wright has made the most out of his touches this season (leads Dolphins RBs with 5.3 yards per carry) and could boom down the stretch with this offense looking good again with Tua Tagovailoa back under center.

8. What are the biggest on-paper mismatches in Week 9?

Every week I put together a group of charts meant to provide easy-to-decipher matchup advantages on both sides of the ball in a handful of categories. This includes combined explosive pass/run-play rates, pressure, yards before contact, pass yards per dropback, and EPA per play. The idea is to have one metric to show a mismatch instead of always going, "Offense ranks X, defense ranks Y."

Without further adieu: The week's biggest mismatches in these ever-important categories. Feel free to click on any of the below categories for a full chart.

  • Explosive passing offense: The Lions, Broncos, Bills, and Falcons passing games appear to be set up quite well. However, the Patriots, Raiders, and Browns aren't looking too hot at the moment ahead of their tough respective matchups.
  • Explosive running offense: The Commanders, Dolphins, Cardinals, and Packers look especially poised to do good things on the ground this week. Meanwhile, the Cowboys, Broncos, Chiefs, and Raiders, in particular, look to have their work cut out for them.
  • Pressure: The Cowboys, Bengals, Dolphins, and Saints look ready to provide plenty of clean pockets this week, while the Giants, Chargers, and Seahawks could be facing more pressure than they'd prefer.
  • Yards before contact per carry: RBs from the Dolphins, Ravens, Panthers, and Eagles might have more clear runways than usual this week, but the opposite is true for the Patriots, Cowboys, Bills, and Jets.
  • Pass yards per dropback: The best set up passing attacks look like the Falcons, Eagles, Lions, and Vikings this week, while the worst look like the Browns, Patriots, and Jets.
  • EPA per play: Jaguars-Eagles, Rams-Seahawks, and Buccaneers-Chiefs stand out as the week's most likely back-and-forth shootouts, whereas Patriots-Titans looks like the marquee defensive slugfest.

9. Ranking every game of the week from a biased entertainment perspective

I remain steadfast in the idea that no NFL game is inherently "bad." Complaining about specific matchups is ignoring the reality that relatively *bad* football is so much better than *no* football; we should NEVER dismiss any given 60 minutes of professional action on the gridiron.

With that said: Some matchups are indeed more awesome than others, so let's take a quick second to rank every matchup of the week in terms of what I'm looking forward to most through my own biased lenses:

 

  1. Chargers-Browns. Why? Jameis f*cking Winston. That's why. Oh, I guess Justin Herbert playing as well as any QB in the league recently is also cool. That, too.
  2. Lions-Packers. It'd be a lot cooler if Jordan Love (groin) is healthy enough to suit up for this NFC North clash, but we've still seen the Packers look capable with Malik Willis under center. Ultimately, the Lions are playing good enough football and run enough trick plays to rank highly regardless of the opponent.
  3. Dolphins-Bills. I'm going to say it right now: This is not the week for high-profile matchups between two elite squads. Still, the Bills certainly qualify as such, while the Dolphins look capable of scoring with anyone as long as Tua Tagovailoa is under center. This is one of just two matchups with a game total starting with the No. 5 after all.
  4. Broncos-Ravens. A matchup pitting arguably the league's best defense vs. the best offense. The Bo Nix-led Broncos have won five of their last six games, but can the newfound offensive success sustain against, you know, a football team that doesn't suck? Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson alone is worthy of a weekly top-5 ranking.
  5. Bears-Cardinals. This one could theoretically finish the week No. 1 or No. 15 depending on what versions of Caleb Williams and Kyler Murray show up. Best case, viewers will get glimpses of what high-end dual-threat talents can achieve in the modern NFL. Worst case, get ready for a lot of running around in the backfield and a frustrating lack of fireworks. 
  6. Buccaneers-Chiefs. The Baker Mayfield experience has been a helluva drug in recent weeks, as the veteran QB leads the NFL in passing TDs as well as INTs over the past four weeks. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' death-by-a-thousand-paper-cuts offense is also cool I guess. Fun fact: Only the Patriots (36) have a longer current streak of games without scoring 30-plus points than the Chiefs (17).
  7. Texans-Jets. This one might have ranked No. 1 in a preseason poll, but now? We have a Jets team that is more of a meme than serious contender at this point against a Texans squad sadly lacking anything resembling lethal firepower in their passing game due to injuries. Still, standalone games deserve some love, and studies show that bad Thursday Night Football is still better than no Thursday Night Football.
  8. Commanders-Giants. The Jayden Daniels experience can only rank so low, but this Giants offense generally leaves viewers wishing for far more outside of the occasional Malik Nabers highlight. The potential for no Tyrone Tracy (concussion) doesn't help matters here.
  9. Jaguars-Eagles. The lack of healthy WRs could stunt Trevor Lawrence's awfully good four-game streak of quality play, but at least Jalen Hurts and Co. are fresh off putting together their best 60-minute stretch of football this season. Just one task remains for this Eagles offense: Can they score a single point in the first quarter for the first time all season?
  10. Rams-Seahawks. This matchup seemingly always produces at least some level of wonkiness, and there is high shootout potential here with the Rams passing game finally back at full strength. Here's to hoping DK Metcalf is healthy enough to suit up.
  11. Colts-Vikings. We'll be waiting all day for a Sunday night matchup featuring a suddenly capable Joe Flacco-led Indy passing attack against a Vikings squad that has started to crash back to reality over the past few weeks.
  12. Cowboys-Falcons. The highest game total of Week 9 (52.5) features a Cowboys team that finds new ways to disappoint every week against a Falcons squad that has racked up 30-plus points in three of their last four games. This one should probably rank higher, although I am unfortunately a silly, depressed Cowboys fan. Sigh.
  13. Raiders-Bengals. Ideally we get a motivated and good version of Joe Burrow and this theoretically great Cincy offense, but even then one can only expect so much from a game featuring Antonio Pierce's Raiders at the moment. Hey, at least that Brock Bowers guy remains a treat to watch, how about getting him more than 5 targets this week, though?
  14. Saints-Panthers. The return of Derek Carr should hopefully improve morale in New Orleans. Otherwise? Yikes.
  15. Patriots-Titans. The potential for no Drake Maye (concussion) or Will Levis (right shoulder) removes most of the YOLO/DGAF allure that this game could have possessed. No matchup has a lower game total (38) this week.

10. Three bold predictions for Week 9:

Every week I'll put my reputation on the line regarding a handful of players I believe could outperform their general fantasy-related expectations. The majority will NOT work out—they wouldn't be bold otherwise—but will that stop me? Hell, no!

Without further adieu: Let's get weird.

  • Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier: I like the potential for Atlanta to run away from the miserable Cowboys at home, meaning Allgeier could see all sorts of second-half carries against a defense that has been horrible against the run for the better part of the last half decade. Obviously, Bijan Robinson should get his, but don't discount Allgeier putting in some work on the ground as well–I'm calling for 80-plus rushing yards and two trips to the end zone for the overqualified backup RB.
  • Vikings WR Jordan Addison: It's been a quiet season for the Vikings' 2023 first-round pick, but that doesn't mean one of the league's premier double-move artists is suddenly bad at football. The best version of this Sam Darnold-led passing attack involves both Justin Jefferson and Addison getting going—don't be surprised if Kevin O'Connell draws up a few well-designed deep shots for his No. 2 WR against this leaky Colts defense. I'm calling for 135 yards and a TD for Addison on Sunday night.
  • Commanders RB Brian Robinson: The Bears did a good job against this Washington ground game last week, but I wouldn't count on the effort being replicated against a Giants front-seven that has been eviscerated by the Eagles (269 rush yards) and Steelers (167) in back-to-back weeks. Give me 120 rush yards and 2 TDs for Robinson; it'd make a lot of sense if the Commanders lean on their early-down bellcow near the end zone as long as Jayden Daniels is playing at less than 100%.

Players highlighted last week and results: Trey McBride (9-124-0), Jordan Mason (6-18-0, injured), and Garrett Wilson (5-113-0).