And just like that: Week 11 is upon us. Let's break down some ball!

Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

1. Will firing Shane Waldron magically fix Caleb Williams and this Bears offense?

Hopefully! But probably not. As much as everyone–mostly Jaxon Smith-Njigba–loves to hate on Mr. Waldron, it sure seems like the problems here run deeper than simply changing the playcaller.

Consider:

  • Caleb Williams has allowed a league-high 28.7% of his pressured dropbacks turn into sacks this season, and he also simply ranks outside the top-25 QBs in yards per attempt, passer rating, and PFF pass grade when given the benefit of a clean pocket this season. Things have largely been bad with or without pressure.
  • D'Andre Swift has supplied some fun big plays, but there hasn't been much in the way of him constantly grinding out tough yards. Overall, Swift joins James Cook, Zack Moss, and Zamir White as the only four RBs to gain 3-plus yards after contact on less than 30% of their carries this season.
  • DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze: Blame the scheme all you want, but one of the alleged best WR trios in the NFL entering the season simply hasn't lived up to expectations through 10 weeks. Overall, Bears WRs collectively are averaging the league's fourth-fewest yards per route run while posting the sixth-worst explosive play rate (22.1%).
  • The offensive line has gotten most of the blame, and honestly, deservedly so. Overall, da Bears have allowed a 36.4% pressure rate (21st) and averaged just 1.41 rush yards before contact per carry (18th). The former mark has cratered in recent weeks to 46.3%—only C.J. Stroud has been under more constant duress than Williams since the team returned from their Week 7 bye.

So yeah, not great! Hopefully new OC Thomas Brown does a better job with the 2024 Bears than he did with the 2023 Panthers; pressing some easy buttons like incorporating more play-action (Williams' 18.3% play-action rate ranks 35th among 41 qualified QBs) and pre-snap motion (sixth-fewest total dropbacks with pre-snap motion) would be a good start.

Last season Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent managed to help produce 188 points through the team's first nine games. This year the Bears rest at … 175. It's tough to be overly optimistic about a major bounceback against a well-rested Packers defense in Week 11, but hey, maybe it was just Shane Waldron.

Man, Caleb must be the league's worst rookie QB at this point based on some of those numbers, right? Well shit man, let's find out!

2. What's the rookie QB hierarchy look like after 10 weeks of action?

We've seen five rookie QBs get significant snaps this season, and one clearly has stood head and shoulders above the rest.

Note that basically everyone other than Jayden Daniels ranks lowly across the board relative to the rest of the league's QBs. In fact, Bo Nix's standing in fantasy points per game is really only as good as it is thanks to his surprisingly lethal rushing ability; he's essentially been a middle-class man's Kyler Murray when it comes to his distribution of fantasy points through the air vs. on the ground.

We're obviously still only 10 weeks into each of these QB's respective careers, but it's hard to not be:

  • Enamored by Daniels' rapid ascension up the position's real-life and fantasy ranks.
  • Optimistic with Nix's development given the rather bad hand he was dealt in terms of available offensive weaponry.
  • Excited about Drake Maye's potential given the flashes he's provided inside what's widely considered to be the worst offensive environment in the league.
  • Disappointed with the early returns from the Caleb Williams experience.
  • Indifferent about Spencer Rattler as a whole (sorry, bro).

It will be particularly exciting to see if Maye can keep on keeping on in fantasy land down the stretch. Last week I recommended Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson, and Maye as my preferred three streamers at QB to help get managers through bye weeks, and that point stands ahead of Week 11. The rookie is averaging a robust 38.8 rush yards per game this season (5th among QBs) and suddenly finds himself with a fairly fantasy-friendly stretch-run:

  • Week 11 vs. Rams: 22nd in EPA allowed per dropback
  • Week 12 at Dolphins: 15th
  • Week 13 vs. Colts: 17th

OK, that's enough QB chatter. Now it's time for a funny happening that has seemingly occurred in recent weeks.

3. Is the tight end position suddenly fixed?

Maybe National TE Day really did just send a shockwave to the position, but yes: TEs are largely balling out more than ever after a slow start to the season.

League-wide TE PPR points per game by week:

  • Week 1: 8.2
  • Week 2: 9.2
  • Week 3: 10.3
  • Week 4: 9.2
  • Week 5: 14.4
  • Week 6: 12
  • Week 7: 13.4
  • Week 8 (National TE Day): 15.8
  • Week 9: 12.3
  • Week 10: 11.6

Each of the first four weeks represents the four lowest marks of the season for the position, as things have improved in a major way across the board for the better part of the last month and a half. Part of this can be chalked up to offenses as a whole generally getting better, but there have also been some key depth chart changes that have really opened things up for certain players in recent weeks.

Shoutout to guys like George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Cade Otton among others for putting forward some big-time performances, while it wouldn't be surprising to see Trey McBride (league-high 65 targets without a TD!) experience some positive regression following the Cardinals' Week 11 bye.

Obviously, it'd be a lot cooler if your fantasy squad is already blessed with one of those ballers, but consider the following options if not—these guys are available in over 50% of ESPN leagues at the moment:

  • Saints TE Taysom Hill (35% rostered): Has posted back-to-back season-high marks in route rate (47%, 63%) during the last two weeks in addition to his typical wonky role in the run game. With 8, 10, and 6 combined carries and targets in his last three games, Hill can score TDs in multiple facets of the game during any given week. He's a top-10 TE in our Week 11 Fantasy Life Rankings and figures to remain in that low-end TE1 conversation the rest of the way inside this incredibly banged-up Saints offense.
  • Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith (25.9% rostered): Has put together solid enough 7-96-1, 4-20-0, 5-46-0, and 3-45-0 receiving lines since the Dolphins returned from their Week 6 bye. The latter stat line would have been much higher had Smith gained *one* extra yards on his season-long 33-yard catch-and-run that left him just short of the goal line (sheesh). This isn't exactly a new fad: Smith is tied with Jaylen Waddle in targets (44) and trails only the Dolphins’ WR2 by 0.7 total PPR points. There are worse TE darts to throw than at a gifted YAC-specimen working as a top-4 pass-game option inside one of the league's more lethal aerial attacks when things are clicking. 
  • Giants TE Theo Johnson (2.8% rostered): The rookie TE has posted a route rate north of 75% in every game since Week 5. While this has yielded only one top-12 finish, the potential for Drew Lock to replace Daniel Jones down the stretch could help produce better results inside a passing game that admittedly can't get much worse. There's always been a lot to like about Johnson's athletic profile; don't be surprised if he provides at least another boom or two ahead of a cozy end-of-season stretch against the Bucs (29th in EPA allowed per dropback), Cowboys (27th), Saints (9th), Ravens (30th), Falcons (23rd), and Colts (17th).

Let's make like Stanley Yelnats and keep digging deep on that waiver wire!

4. What handcuffs are essential bench stashes if available on your waiver wire?

There are still quite a few bye weeks on the horizon, meaning fantasy managers will be forced to make some tough cuts—potentially opening up newfound opportunities to roster some of the game's more fantasy-friendly backup RBs.

The following RBs should be prioritized if ever available on the wire—each would instantly be in the RB1 conversation should their team's starter miss any game action:

Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier (rostered in 50.4% of ESPN leagues): Putting up elite numbers in pretty much any advanced rushing metric you could ever care about, Allgeier would likely push for 20-plus combined carries and targets per game if Bijan Robinson missed any time inside of the Falcons' 13th-ranked scoring offense.

Titans RB Tyjae Spears (45.1%): Looked good in his return to action and continues to carry that fantasy-friendly blend of explosiveness and pass-catching ability. We already saw how willing the Titans were to fully lean on Tony Pollard as their workhorse with Spears sidelined; the inverse would also likely be true–and Pollard has already been managing a foot injury for weeks.

Jets RB Braelon Allen (21.8%): Has 76 combined carries and targets as Breece Hall's direct backup. The rest of the Jets' backup RBs have … 5. Allen's pass-blocking ability has already earned him a surprising amount of third-down work; he'd likely assume a similar three-down role as Hall should disaster strike, even if the explosiveness at hand obviously wouldn't be quite as lethal.

Bills RB Ray Davis (18.8%): Already saw what he was capable of with a sterling PPR RB12 finish in James Cook's one missed game this season. While Josh Allen factors into the rushing equation near the goal line and has never made a habit of overly involving his RBs in the passing game, Davis would be tough to keep out of the position's weekly top-15 options with the upside for 20-plus carries and targets inside the league's third-ranked scoring offense.

Cardinals RB Trey Benson (15.9%): In a similar spot as Davis in that Emari Demercado (like Ty Johnson) steals some pass-down work, but Benson (like Davis) remains the favorite for the overwhelming majority of backup early-down work. The Cardinals have some mouth-watering smash spots in the fantasy playoffs against the Patriots, Panthers, and Rams; Benson would be a smash recommended start in each matchup should James Conner be forced to miss any action.

Rams RB Blake Corum (15.9%): Kyren Williams has handled 20-plus touches in all but one game this season. And guess what: Corum would be the favorite to inherit nearly 100% of that workload should Williams ever be forced to miss any time. Sean McVay has always tended to lean toward one featured workhorse as opposed to a committee backfield; Corum remains a lottery ticket worth keeping even if hopes of standalone value have proved to be worthless.

Dolphins RB Jaylen Wright (5.5%): Out-snapped Raheem Mostert for the first time in Week 10 while also outcarrying him 5-to-0. Obviously, De'Von Achane is THE running back, y'all, in Miami whenever healthy enough to suit up, but Wright might very well be the preferred handcuff at this point. That could prove to be a pretty, pretty, pretty good role should this Dolphins offense continue to build on their newfound Tua-led momentum.

Speaking of offenses that have improved quite a bit in recent weeks.

5. What offenses have improved the most over the last five weeks?

I took the difference in EPA per play in Weeks 1-5 compared to Weeks 6-10 for all 32 teams to get an idea of who is playing their best football as of late, and who has fallen off the most after a hot start.

The five offenses that have taken the biggest leaps forward:

  1. Dolphins (+0.238 EPA per play): The Tua Tagovailoa effect has Miami ranked 31st in EPA per play during the first half of the season compared to 16th over the last five weeks. Still not exactly the sort of highs we saw from the Greatest show on Surf over the last two seasons, but more relatively better times *should* be ahead for Tyreek Hill and Co. as long as No. 1 stays healthy.
  2. Chargers (+0.168 EPA per play): Let Justin Herbert cook: The Chargers worked as just the 25th-most efficient offense during the first five weeks of the season, but have risen all the way up to 13th over the last five weeks. As we saw last week, this offense still enjoys running the damn ball when possible, but it'd make sense if we see the likes of Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston get more targets than usual in upcoming potential shootouts with the Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, and Buccaneers.
  3. Broncos (+0.131 EPA per play): Going from 26th to 19th in EPA per play isn't exactly the world's greatest turnaround, although Bo Nix is knocking on the fantasy QB1 door, and Courtland Sutton has quietly scored the fourth-most PPR points at the position over the last four weeks of action. Throw in an ascension up the depth chart from rookie RB Audric Estime, and suddenly there are multiple parties to like inside this Sean Payton-led offensive attack.
  4. Jets  (+0.122 EPA per play): The J-e-t-s, Jets, Jets, Jets might not be fulfilling the sky-high expectations they had entering the season, but Aaron Rodgers has at least helped field an above-average offense during the last five weeks. The defense's relative collapse could actually wind up providing more fantasy-friendly shootout game scripts down the stretch.
  5. Browns (+0.111 EPA per play): I love the Jameis Winston experience as much as the next guy, but this improvement will really be tested in upcoming stiff matchups against the Steelers (x2), Broncos, and Chiefs from Weeks 12-15. I don't hate the idea of accordingly selling high on Cedric Tillman—the impressive rookie might only be a few more boneheaded Jameis decisions away from having to deal with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center.

On the other side of things, the Cowboys, Saints, and Colts have been the bottom-3 teams in terms of their EPA dropoff in recent weeks. The Bengals and Commanders actually round out the top-5 biggest drops, although the latter team's inclusion isn't too big of a deal considering they still rank fourth in EPA per play since Week 6. This just goes to show how freaking great Washington really was during the first five weeks of the year.

Fun times for those who are improving. Not so much for those who aren't. Either way: Let's talk some defense!

6. What DSTs look poised to ball out down the stretch?

While ideally we would prefer to roster DSTs that are great in real life and have cozy schedules, sometimes it's tough to get the best of both worlds.

Still: We do indeed have options. In a perfect world I'd try to pull off the following DST allocation over the course of the next seven weeks:

  • Weeks 11-13: Lock down the Texans (DAL, TEN, JAX) or Lions (JAX, IND, CHI) for the next three weeks. If unavailable, the Dolphins (LV, NE) or Vikings (TEN, CHI) would make for solid consolation prizes.
  • Weeks 14-17: It's tough to get the same sort of great defense AND great matchup combo in this stretch, but there are some defenses with truly awesome matchups: Consider leaning on the Jaguars (TEN, NYJ, LV, TEN), Colts (Bye, DEN, TEN, NYG), Bengals (DAL, TEN, CLE, DEN), Buccaneers (LV, LAC, DAL, CAR), or Cardinals (SEA, NE, CAR, LAR) down the stretch. Considering the real-life prowess and likelihood that the teams are still actively competing for playoff spots, I lean toward Cincy, Tampa Bay, and Arizona as my preferred three options.

Honestly, you could feasibly ride the Cardinals or Buccaneers for the rest of the season following their respective Week 11 byes. Neither is exactly a wagon on the defensive side of the ball, but they do possess some talent, and it'd make sense if they take extra advantage of some cozy matchups while in the heat of the playoff hunt.

OK, now that we've covered our bi-weekly DST agenda, it's time for everyone's favorite segment of the week …

7. Fraud check: Which top Week 10 performances were real?

The following players ripped off sterling top-8 PPR performances last week, but that doesn't mean the production is here to stay. Presenting: Fraud check, where we (me) decide if last week's biggest stars are here to stay, or if we simply just witnessed a one-off boom.

Saints QB Derek Carr (QB6): Carr's first top-20 finish since Week 2 featured multiple b-e-a-utiful downfield bombs to Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Hell, the performance should have been even bigger—Alvin Kamara unfortunately couldn't hang on to what would have been a walk-in 56-yard TD at the end of the 4th quarter. Up next is a winnable matchup against the Browns in the Superdome, and while I don't hate the streaming potential here, c'mon man: Expecting DC to replicate this goodness without a single WR most would consider "good" just seems like wishful thinking. Injuries to both the offensive line and WR room have had more to do with Carr busting down the stretch than his own performance, and sadly they'll likely continue to be the culprit preventing a true late-season boom.

=Bucs RB Rachaad White (RB5): On a bye, but his recent stretch run is worth mentioning: White has peeled off PPR RB2, RB14, RB24, and RB5 finishes since returning from injury thanks in large part to one of the position's most fantasy-friendly receiving roles. Overall, a whopping 71% of White's fantasy production has come through the air this season—only Christian McCaffrey (77%) has more among the position's top-40 performers. Because of this, and the reality that Chris Godwin is done for the season, I'm buying White's RB1 ascension persisting to a solid degree the rest of the way, especially with cake matchups against the Giants, Panthers (x2), Raiders, Chargers, and Cowboys to close out the season.

Titans WR Calvin Ridley (WR3): Has posted two top-4 finishes in the last three weeks with two separate QBs under center. While we've seen plenty of bad from Will Levis this year, this is a smashable end-of-season schedule: None of the Vikings, Texans, Commanders, Jaguars (x2), Bengals, or Colts rank better than 19th in PPR points per game allowed to opposing WRs this season. Expect some unrealized air yards along the way, but I'm cautiously buying the idea that Ridley could f*ck around and find himself among the position's top-15 or so producers down the stretch.

Ravens TE Mark Andrews (TE2): The stud veteran is starting to heat up down the stretch with four top-12 finishes in the last five weeks. The absence of Isaiah Likely (hamstring) would certainly help matters, but we also now have Lamar Jackson on a six-game streak with at least 280 passing yards. Suddenly there's plenty of pass-game volume to go around; Andrews looks a lot like a prime upside TE1 the rest of the way as long as Likely remains sidelined, even if his start to the season was obviously VERY annoying to deal with.

Now it's time to get into some specific Week 11 goodness. Buckle up, ladies and (mostly) gentlemen.

8. What are the biggest on-paper mismatches in Week 11?

Every week I put together a group of charts meant to provide easy-to-decipher matchup advantages on both sides of the ball in a handful of categories. This includes combined explosive pass/run-play rates, pressure, yards before contact, pass yards per dropback, and EPA per play. The idea is to have one metric to show a mismatch instead of always going, “Offense ranks X, defense ranks Y.”

Without further adieu: The week's biggest mismatches in these ever-important categories. Feel free to click on any of the below categories for a full chart.

  • Explosive passing offense: The Ravens, Texans, Lions, Steelers, and Eagles passing games appear to be set up quite well. However, the Browns, Bengals, and Cowboys aren't looking too hot at the moment ahead of their tough respective matchups.
  • Explosive running offense: The Colts, Packers, Jaguars, and Eagles look especially poised to do good things on the ground this week. Meanwhile, the Rams, Steelers, and Chargers, in particular, look to have their work cut out for them.
  • Pressure: The Dolphins, Jets, and Broncos look ready to provide plenty of clean pockets this week, while the Eagles, Saints, and Patriots could be facing more pressure than they'd prefer.
  • Yards before contact per carry: RBs from the Eagles, Ravens, 49ers, and Lions might have more clear runways than usual this week, but the opposite is true for the Raiders, Jets, Steelers, and Patriots.
  • Pass yards per dropback: The best set-up passing attacks look like the Lions, Ravens, and 49ers this week, while the worst look like the Browns, Titans, and Bears.
  • EPA per play: Commanders-Eagles, Ravens-Steelers, and Chiefs-Bills stand out as the week's most likely back-and-forth shootouts, whereas Raiders-Dolphins and Browns-Saints look like the defensive slugfests to put it nicely.

9. Ranking every game of the week from a biased entertainment perspective

I remain steadfast in the idea that no NFL game is inherently "bad." Complaining about specific matchups is ignoring the reality that relatively *meh* football is so much better than *no* football; we should NEVER dismiss any given 60 minutes of professional action on the gridiron.

With that said: Some matchups are indeed more awesome than others, so let's take a quick second to rank every matchup of the week in terms of what I'm looking forward to most through my own biased lenses:

  1. Chiefs-Bills. Mahomes vs. Allen. 9-0 vs. 8-2. You get it.
  2. Ravens-Steelers. The amount of potential offense in this one might be a far cry from the wars that used to take place in these matchups 15 years ago. Lamar Jackson and (somehow) Russell Wilson are two of the league's top-4 QBs in EPA per dropback: Get your popcorn ready for this battle for first place in the AFC North.
  3. Commanders-Eagles. Yet another great on-paper Thursday night game pits a Washington squad that hasn't quite looked like the same juggernaut in recent weeks against an Eagles team that seems to be catching its stride on both sides of the football.
  4. Bengals-Chargers. We'll be waiting all day for this Sunday night matchup between two of the very best QBs alive. Here's to hoping the Chargers don't manage to turn this one into a slow-paced defensive battle.
  5. Seahawks-49ers. Something quirky always seems to go down in this matchup. Hopefully, this time around it includes plenty of points: Both offenses are getting healthy at the right time and figure to do everything they can to put their best foot forward inside the ever-competitive NFC West.
  6. Browns-Saints. Jameis Winston revenge game. Enough said. 
  7. Vikings-Titans. For better or (most likely) worse: Sam Darnold and Will Levis will probably find a way to entertain us.
  8. Rams-Patriots. Sean McVay's fully healthy offense is usually a fun viewing experience more weeks than not, while Drake Maye's athleticism, arm talent, and gunslinger mindset is making my predraft "Justin Herbert if he shotgunned a two-liter of Mountain Dew before kickoff" comp look pretty, pretty, pretty good.
  9. Packers-Bears. I'd like to think Caleb Williams and Co. have it in them to field something close to league-average offense for portions of the season's second half, but even if not, it's always exhilarating to watch Jordan Love continue to make roughly five amazing throws—and three boneheaded ones—per week.
  10. Colts-Jets. Making fun of Indy's decision to bench Anthony Richardson after every Joe Flacco mistake has been a fun time in the social media streets, while a similar sentiment is true for Aaron Rodgers and the sinking Jets. Gotta love some good ol’ schadenfreude.
  11. Falcons-Broncos. This one could probably be ranked as high as No. 6 if you wanted to recognize the reality that these are indeed two quality football teams. That said, I appreciate volatile up-and-down QB performances more than, you know, Kirk Cousins and Bo Nix. Just my personal preference. Cool? Cool.
  12. Jaguars-Lions. The Lions are 13-point favorites in this one—5.5 points higher than the next-closest spread in Week 11. Even if Trevor Lawrence (left shoulder) manages to play, meh.
  13. Raiders-Dolphins. The Greatest Show on Surf hasn't quite flashed the way many were hoping once Tua Tagovaioloa returned, while the Raiders … have Brock Bowers. Thankfully the NFL at least buried this one in the early slate unlike our final matchup.
  14. Texans-Cowboys. It's fair to call the Cowboys the worst team in football at the moment, while the Texans are spiraling and struggling to get anything going on offense in large part due to their failure to protect C.J. Stroud. This game's lowly 42-point game total reflects the reality that 1.) The Cowboys probably won't accomplish dick on offense, and 2.) Micah Parsons and Co. have the ability to limit this Houston group. So, yeah, Monday Night Football! Can't wait!

10. Three bold predictions for Week 11:

Every week I'll put my reputation on the line regarding a handful of players I believe could outperform their general fantasy-related expectations. The majority will NOT work out—they wouldn't be bold otherwise—but will that stop me? Hell, no!

Without further adieu: Let's get weird.

  • Colts RB Jonathan Taylor: It's been a good-not-great year for JT, who has gained 100-plus total yards in five of seven contests despite Indy rotating mediocre QBs under center. Luckily, this Jets run defense has looked like a joke for the better part of the last month and a half. It's scary to think about what Taylor could do if given the same sort of runways that Joe Mixon received two weeks ago against this defense. I'm calling for a mega blowup here, 200-plus total yards and a pair of trips to the end zone for Mr. Taylor.
  • Browns RB Nick Chubb: The usage has been there, but not the success. Now coming off a bye and *hopefully* working behind a healthier and improved offensive front, it'd make sense if Chubb enjoys his best outing of the season against a Saints defense that looked hopeless against Bijan Robinson and has allowed two teams to rush for 225-plus yards since Week 6. Give me 100 yards on the ground and two scores from the Browns longtime stud RB1.
  • Lions WR Jameson Williams: Assumed his usual every-down role in his first game back from suspension. While the Jaguars have some dudes in their front seven, their secondary has largely been a disaster when Sam Darnold isn't throwing the ball directly to them. Expect a rebound from Jared Goff and this passing game coming off Sunday night's 5-INT malpractice. I'm counting on Jamo for 115 yards and a score courtesy of a b-e-a-utiful 55-yard dime down the left sideline. 

Players highlighted last week and results: Mark Andrews (6-68-1), Taysom Hill (50 yards), T.J. Hockenson (8-72-0).