Ian Hartitz reveals his bold predictions and 10 key storylines for Fantasy Football Week 14.

And just like that: Week 14 is upon us. Let's break down some ball!

Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

1. What should we make of this injury-riddled 49ers offense?

The early-season loss of WR Brandon Aiyuk (knee, IR) already set this offense back, and now things on the ground will be tougher than ever with both Christian McCaffrey (knee, IR) and Jordan Mason (ankle, IR) expected to miss the remainder of the regular season.

Not great, Bob, but with great loss comes great opportunity in fantasy land–something that rookie Isaac Guerendo suddenly has in spades. You probably had to unload the clip on the ol' waiver wire to land the 49ers' fourth-round pick, so now you HAVE to start him in leagues of all shapes and sizes … right?

Pretty much. For one, Guerendo has largely made the most out of his opportunities this season. Small sample be damned, his average of 5.9 yards per carry trails only Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Derrick Henry. Yes, this is a bit skewed by that one big 76-yard scamper against the Seahawks earlier this season. Also yes, Guerendo is the sort of freaky size-speed talent capable of making these sorts of explosive plays: He joins DK Metcalf as the only two prospects in the last 20 yards to have weighed 220-plus pounds AND ran a 4.33 or faster (via Dane Brugler).

Of course, the 49ers haven't exactly treated their next-man-up at RB exactly like CMC over the years. This was the case for Guerendo back in his only extended appearance of the season in Week 8 against the Cowboys.

 

Then again, that robust route rate does seem to indicate the 49ers trust Guerendo to handle something close to a true three-down role. There will probably be a bit more Kyle Juszczyk than fantasy managers would prefer, and maybe Deebo Samuel will dust off his ballcarrier rust—only 1 carry in the last 3 weeks! Still: By all accounts, Guerendo looks poised to rack up 15-20 touches against a Bears defense that ranks just 22nd in EPA allowed per rush and PPR points per game allowed to opposing RBs.

I'm going to be aggressive here; we're talking about a probable workhorse RB who has demonstrated the ability to be explosive inside of a 49ers offense that ranks third in rush yards before contact per carry this season. Guerendo is a top-15 play for me this week ahead of guys like Tony Pollard, Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Tyrone Tracy, Chuba Hubbard, Rachaad White, D'Andre Swift, Nick Chubb, and Isiah Pacheco, among others.

Of course, RB isn't the only position that fantasy managers are likely struggling to fill during bye-maggedon …

2. What QB streaming options should you prioritize this week?

We've discussed this for a while now, notably naming Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson, and Drake Maye as suggested streamers back in the Week 10 edition of this column. Hopefully you heeded that advice then and are comfortably set with either Herbert or DangeRuss this week because neither is too readily available in more leagues than not at the moment.

But never fear: We still have several viable options for down-bad managers suddenly forced to deal with the bye ahead of Week 14.

1. Browns QB Jameis Winston (rostered in 9.5% of ESPN leagues): Look, we can debate the merits of the Jameis experience when it comes to being a good REAL LIFE QB, but there's no debate of how great he is with a long leash in fantasy land thanks to the reality that interceptions are worth only -1 points in more leagues than not. I mean, the man is averaging 336 passing yards per game in his five full starts for crying out loud! While Winston hasn't been lights out since taking over as Browns QB1, Monday night's 497-4-3 effort against the Broncos' allegedly elite pass defense proves that even a tough matchup isn't enough to limit the ceiling here. This is a necessary point ahead of Sunday's date with the Steelers, who Winston did manage to throw for 219 yards against during a blizzard two short weeks ago. Early forecasts call for reasonably fine weather this Sunday, and accordingly, I'm firing up the veteran gunslinger as a legit top-10 option at the position with Cleveland seemingly fine embracing the experience at this point. Consider: The Browns' +4% dropback rate over expected since Week 8 trails only the Bengals and Chiefs across the entire NFL.

2. Bears QB Caleb Williams (37%): Week 13 showed off the Jekyll and Hyde nature of the 2024 NFL Draft's No. 1 overall pick. It took the Bears over 29 minutes to pick up their first 1st down of the game, but then Williams managed to throw for 3 scores during a spirited second-half comeback. The performance was certainly aided by a banged-up Lions defense, but that sentiment also holds true for the 49ers, who have allowed a league-high 73 points over the past two weeks. I don't necessarily expect Williams and Co. to have the prettiest offensive performance, but that won't be necessary if interim head coach Thomas Brown continues to air the ball out: Only the Chiefs (+16%) have a higher dropback rate over expected than the Bears (+12%) since Week 12. I still lean toward guys like Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes over Williams, but I do prefer the rookie ahead of flailing veterans like Brock Purdy and our next streaming option.

3. Rams QB Matthew Stafford (39.2%): We've essentially seen Stafford get to play with a fully healthy group of pass-game weapons for six games this year. He's ripped off QB6, QB14, QB21, QB5, QB9, and most recently QB22 fantasy finishes in those contests, throwing for multiple scores in all but one contest along the way. This week's matchup against the Bills' 10th-ranked defense in EPA allowed per dropback isn't ideal, but then again Josh Allen and Co. possess the sort of firepower to potentially drag this Rams offense into a shootout. Overall, only Lions-Packers (51) and Cowboys-Bengals (50.5) have higher game totals than Rams-Bills (49) this week. I don't love the fact that Stafford is now dealing with an ankle injury, although the longtime pocket passer also wasn't exactly making a habit of moving around too much before the issue anyway. Ultimately, I trust the Stafford-McVay partnership more than guys like Will Levis, Geno Smith, and Kirk Cousins, among others, despite the tougher-than-usual matchup.

Titans QB Will Levis (4.8%) and Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell (0.8%) would be my next two recommended streamers should none of those big three be available in your league. Both are set up quite nicely in their respective matchups against the Jaguars and Buccaneers, even if most are well aware of the scary-low floor they possess inside their bottom-6 scoring offenses.

Speaking of attempting to take advantage of some matchups …

3. What are some of the league's most prominent pass and run-funnel defenses?

The following chart denotes every defense's EPA allowed per run and pass. Groups in the upper right quadrant have been quite good at defending both, the bottom left have sucked at both, the far left have been worse against the pass, and the bottom groups have especially struggled at stopping the run.

 

 

A few key takeaways here for Week 14 specifically:

 

Titans pass catchers: Nobody has been worse at slowing down opposing passing games than the Jaguars this season. Accordingly, Calvin Ridley is a legit WR1 candidate and deserves the benefit of the doubt in close start/sit decisions; he does rank eighth in total receiving yards since DeAndre Hopkins was shipped off to Kansas City after all. Also don't sleep on Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, a waiver wire darling who inexplicably has more receiving TDs (8) than anyone other than Ja'Marr Chase (13), Terry McLaurin (9), and Amon-Ra St. Brown (9). While chasing TDs is usually bad fantasy football process, NWI has racked up at least 5 targets in four of his last five games, and thus is hilariously in the WR3 conversation next to guys like Amari Cooper and DeVonta Smith ahead of this smash spot.

Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle and Giants RB Tyrone Tracy: Both are normally in the lower-end RB2 conversation, but each suddenly finds themselves set up quite well against the Bengals and Saints this week. Dowdle has set back-to-back, season-best marks in rush-attempt share and is more ingrained as the Cowboys' featured back than ever. While Tracy's ball security issues haven't impacted his job security, he's one of the week's top utilization score risers. We still don't love the scoring upside of these offenses, but it's tough to overly bicker about the attached volume and matchup—both deserve to be ranked as top-18 options at the position this week. I'd start each ahead of guys like Chuba Hubbard, Rachaad White, D'Andre Swift, and Nick Chubb among others.

Saints pass catchers: The Giants were a mid-to-bad pass defense before losing all-world DT Dexter Lawrence (elbow, IR) for the season. This sets up nicely for Derek Carr, who has performed rather admirably this season despite the Saints dealing with all kinds of injuries themselves across the offensive line and in their WR and TE rooms. However, those latter issues have helped condense things around two key parties ahead of Week 14: WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling and TE Juwan Johnson. The former party is still very much a boom-or-bust WR4 type of option, but again: This sets up as the sort of plus matchup that could bring out the former outcome. After all, MVS has found the end zone on four separate occasions during his last three games, commanding a whopping 32% of the team's air yards during his time in New Orleans. And then there's Johnson, who deserves to be the TE add of the week; he's coming off season-best utilization and possesses double-digit target upside with Taysom Hill (knee, IR) done for the year. I would start the talented pass catcher ahead of guys like Tucker Kraft and Pat Freiermuth, among others.

Gotta love targeting a good matchup in fantasy land. That said, sometimes simply trusting good offenses to overcome perceived tough on-paper defenses is still advised. With that in mind …

4. Should we still be overly worried about this Chiefs defense?

Meh. While the group looked like one of the league's best units for the better part of the first eight or so weeks of the season, things have started to slip in recent matchups.

Just look at the group's performance in terms of EPA allowed per play by week.

The defense has remained competent enough against the run (16th in EPA allowed per rush) since Week 9, but the pass defense has fallen off a cliff. Overall, only the Jaguars, Giants, and Raiders have allowed more EPA per dropback than the Chiefs (+0.237) over the last five weeks.

This brings us to Week 14 against a Chargers offense that yes, the Chiefs managed to shut down back in Week 4, but that was also with a heavily hobbled Justin Herbert under center. The 26-year-old golden-armed talent has forced himself back into the real-life top-5 conversation at the position since returning from the team's Week 5 bye, posting a league-best 91.1 PFF pass grade while averaging a whopping 8.1 yards per attemp—the seventh-highest mark among 36 qualified QBs.

While the Chargers haven't always opened up the offense enough to fully unleash Herbert, he's been efficient enough to enable two fairly consistent studs in fantasy land in recent weeks:

  • WR Ladd McConkey: Here's to hoping the rookie's knee injury won't keep him sidelined for Week 13, because the George product has emerged as one of the game's most productive pass-catchers in recent weeks. Overall, McConkey's 639 receiving yards since returning from the team's Week 5 bye trail only A.J. Brown (674), Jerry Jeudy (667), and Ja'Marr Chase (649). Pretty, pretty, pretty good, and McConkey has accordingly scored the 7th-most PPR points at the position during this stretch. Again, keep an eye on the injury report. But if good to go, fire up McConkey as a legit top-15 option at the position against this struggling secondary.
  • TE Will Dissly: Last week's goose egg sucked, but Dissly's 71% route rate reflects the reality that he's still very much a near-every-down player in this passing game. This has helped produce two top-7 booms since the team returned from bye, and the role doesn't seem to be going anywhere with Hayden Hurst (hip, IR) sidelined in the near term. While I do prefer Juwan Johnson as a streamer this week, it's certainly close thanks to Dissly getting a matchup with a Chiefs defense that has allowed 17 PPR points per game to opposing TEs this season—the second-highest mark in the league.

Guys like Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer would be in the WR4 conversation should McConkey ultimately be sidelined, but yeah, the moral of the story: This Kansas City defense is hardly a unit opposing fantasy managers should be overly fearful of at the moment.

Now for a bit tougher question…

5. Can we REALLY trust these Panthers ahead of their trip to Philly?

The Bryce Young-led Panthers have posted two of their top-5 marks in points and total yards in two games since their Week 11 bye. This has coincided with the 2023 NFL Draft's No. 1 overall pick playing the best football of his career, and it hasn't been particularly close.

Fresh off two of his best three career games, vibes are high for Bryce truthers and Panthers faithful alike … but now it's time to face the hottest defense in the NFL.

Eagles defense since returning from their Week 5 bye:

  • Yards per game: 241.3 (1st)
  • Yards per play: 4.1 (1st)
  • Points per game: 15.3 (2nd)
  • EPA per play: -0.161 (2nd)
  • EPA per dropback: -0.106 (2nd)
  • EPA per rush: -0.266 (2nd)

The first stat is truly preposterous considering the next-best defense in total yards per game has been the Lions … at 306.

I wouldn't quite call the Panthers' (improved) offense an unstoppable force at this point, but the Eagles defense is as close to an immovable object in the league at the moment. The continued absence of CB Darius Slay (concussion) wouldn't be ideal, although the team's youngsters in the secondary more than carried the slack on their way to limiting the Ravens under 20 points and 375 total yards of offense for just the second time all year.

Ultimately, I'm mostly siding with the Eagles keeping on keeping on here. Young hasn't posted a 300-plus yard effort or thrown for multiple TDs in any of his past four games despite his noted improvements, and Chuba Hubbard posted his worst Utilization Score (5.4) since Week 1 against the Buccaneers as the team gave Jonathon Brooks more work. I'm not against sliding in Xavier Legette or (especially) Adam Thielen into the FLEX, but the former has just one game with 5 catches or 60-plus yards this season, and the latter showed the floor (PPR WR46) in Week 12 before a nice boom (WR5) in Week 13.

Fun stuff—now let's get into some potential roster management moves to find tomorrow's Isaac Guerendo.

6. Who are some handcuff RBs to stash down the stretch?

The following RBs would instantly be in the ~top-15 conversation should their team's starter go down *and* are rostered on under 45% of ESPN fantasy squads:

I would also throw guys like Jerome Ford (30.8%), Cam Akers (18.5%), Antonio Gibson (16.9%), Khalil Herbert (6.2%), Jaylen Wright (5.4%), Kenneth Gainwell (2.5%), and Dameon Pierce (1.2%) into the conversation, although they would likely profile more so as low-end RB2-esque options as opposed to players who would need to be in lineups of most shapes and sizes. I'm inclined to include Tank Bigsby (32.1%), although the game-script monster is always at risk of messing up his day, and the Jaguars aren't exactly fostering the sort of offensive environment fantasy managers should be dying to get a piece of.

Fun times, but here's an important fact: We can't conquer the fantasy football playoffs unless we make it there first! Accordingly, let's double-check just how real some of last week's surprising performances really were.

7. Fraud check: Which top Week 13 performances were real?

The following players ripped off sterling top-12 PPR performances last week, but that doesn't mean the production is here to stay. Presenting: Fraud check, where we (me) decide if last week's biggest stars are here to stay, or if we simply just witnessed a one-off boom.

Steelers QB Russell Wilson (QB3): The artist known as DangeRuss is now averaging 271 pass yards per game this season—more than anyone not named Joe Burrow (278). His latest performance featured 414 yards and a trio of TDs through the air; the INT really wasn't even his fault. The upside at hand truly is a breath of fresh air, although we've seen Wilson limited to under 30 pass attempts in four of his six starts this season. More of the same could be on the way against the Browns if Pittsburgh's status as 6.5-point favorites means anything. I'm cool with treating Wilson as a legit top-10 option at the position with so many quality QBs on bye this week, but his continued lack of rushing upside inside an offense still not exactly keen on overly airing it out will keep him out of the position's weekly top-8 options down the stretch.

Steelers RB Najee Harris (RB3): Has received at least 16 touches in every game this season as the Steelers' clear-cut workhorse back. Harris seems to be dealing with one injury or another more weeks than not, but he deserves credit for playing through the pain while delivering plenty of it. Kudos to the Browns for holding Harris to just 2.6 yards per carry back in Week 12, although his status as a touchdown home favorite is tough to cry about. We'll continue to see Jaylen Warren and even Cordarrelle Patterson somewhat involved; just realize Harris should continue to be inside far more starting lineups than not as the bellcow back of the league's 10th-ranked scoring offense.

Jaguars WR Parker Washington (WR7): The second-year talent nearly had more yards in Week 13 (103) than he had in the first 12 weeks combined (118). The performance actually could have been even bigger had Mac Jones not sailed what probably should have been a 12-yard TD. Of course, Washington still profiles as the third banana behind BrIan Thomas and Evan Engram moving forward, and Jones looked positively horrendous in his lone two starts of the season. Maybe McCorkle builds off last week's momentum and manages to feed his trio of pass catchers plenty of fantasy-friendly targets against the Titans' good-not-great secondary, but I'd still caution in treating the Penn State alumni as anything more than a boom-or-bust WR4 in fantasy land.

Lions TE Sam LaPorta (TE8): Starting to come alive in recent weeks: LaPorta has received 6 targets in four of his last five games, a mark which he didn't touch once during the Lions' first seven contests of the season. Still, fantasy's reigning TE1 has only reached the 55-yard threshold once this season, making him far more TD-dependent than anyone would prefer. We saw the low floor of this equation the last time the Lions faced the Packers (2-28-0). Bye weeks and the reality that LaPorta remains a very good real-life player inside arguably the league's single-best offense elevates him to a top-8 play this week, but I could still name at least nine TEs I would prefer over the rest of the season (Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Jonnu Smith, T.J. Hockenson, David Njoku, Mark Andrews, Cade Otton).

8. What are the biggest on-paper mismatches in Week 14?

Every week I put together a group of charts meant to provide easy-to-decipher matchup advantages on both sides of the ball in a handful of categories. This includes combined explosive pass/run-play rates, pressure, yards before contact, pass yards per dropback, and EPA per play. The idea is to have one metric to show a mismatch instead of always going, “Offense ranks X, defense ranks Y.”

Without further adieu: The week's biggest mismatches in these ever-important categories. Feel free to click on any of the below categories for a full chart.

  • Explosive passing offense: The Lions, Steelers, and Eagles passing games appear to be set up quite well. However, the Panthers, Bears, Jaguars, Raiders, and Chiefs aren't looking too hot at the moment ahead of their tough respective matchups.
  • Explosive running offense: The Packers, Cardinals, and 49ers look especially poised to do good things on the ground this week. Meanwhile, the Cowboys, Browns, Falcons, and Chargers, in particular, look to have their work cut out for them.
  • Pressure: The Buccaneers, Jaguars, and Cowboys look ready to provide plenty of clean pockets this week, while the Steelers, 49ers, and Bengals could be facing more pressure than they'd prefer.
  • Yards before contact per carry: RBs from the Eagles, Giants, and Bengals might have more clear runways than usual this week, but the opposite is true for the Jets, Steelers, and Dolphins.
  • Pass yards per dropback: The best set-up passing attacks look like the Lions, Packers, Steelers, 49ers, and Bills this week, while the worst look like the Panthers, Bears, and Jaguars.
  • EPA per play: Seahawks-Cardinals and Chargers-Chiefs stand out as the week's most likely back-and-forth shootouts, whereas Jets-Dolphins looks like the week's top defensive slugfest.

9. Ranking every game of the week from a biased entertainment perspective

I remain steadfast in the idea that no NFL game is inherently "bad." Complaining about specific matchups is ignoring the reality that relatively *meh* football is so much better than *no* football; we should NEVER dismiss any given 60 minutes of professional action on the gridiron.

With that said: Some matchups are indeed more awesome than others, so let's take a quick second to rank every matchup of the week in terms of what I'm looking forward to most through my own biased lenses:

  1. Packers-Lions. Their first matchup featured a badly hobbled Jordan Love playing in porous Lambeau conditions. Thursday night will instead be inside the friendly confines of Ford Field, and the matchup accordingly boasts the only game total north of 50 of the week (51). Is Thursday Night Football officially the best prime-time game? People are asking.
  2. Browns-Steelers. Jameis Winston. Enough said.
  3. Bills-Rams. Will Josh Allen (again) rack up a passing, rushing, and receiving TD in the same game? Probably not, but it's somehow possible! Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay are always a threat to go nuclear with a fully healthy WR room. Get your popcorn ready for the late afternoon game of the week.
  4. Chargers-Chiefs. Is Kansas City poised to fall off in a bad way now that it's facing, you know, an actually good team? Or will the Chiefs continue to pull wins out of their ass in incredulously maddening late-game fashion? We'll find out on Sunday night!
  5. Bengals-Cowboys. Only the Ravens have scored and allowed more total points (701) than the Bengals (675) this season. Translation: The Bengals can score on anybody … and anybody can score on them. This might even include the Cowboys, who have quietly won two straight and appear steadfast in messing up their chances to land Travis Hunter.
  6. Seahawks-Cardinals. The never-boring NFC West is the only division featuring four teams with at least five wins. While neither offense has exactly made a habit of playing consistent lights-out football this season, both possess gaudy ceilings with plenty of entertainment potential from their respective dual-threat gunslingers.
  7. Panthers-Eagles. If Bryce Young manages to keep things close against the EAGLES after doing enough to win each of the last four games? Whoa buddy. It probably won't happen, but you could imagine what it'd be like if it did. Otherwise, yeah: Watching Saquon Barkley go nuclear should be a fun time (unless you're playing him in fantasy).
  8. Bears-49ers. The Caleb Williams experience has been a fun time for the better part of the last two weeks, while losing Christian McCaffrey might (?) force Kyle Shanahan to finally open up the playbook and really attempt to get this passing game going. 
  9. Falcons-Vikings. The Kirk Cousins revenge game! Thus, it might be a good time for Captain Kirk to stop playing like one of the worst QBs in the league. Meanwhile, we feel overdue for a Justin Jefferson eruption, especially if Sam Darnold continues to largely play good football.
  10. Jets-Dolphins. The Dolphins are back to functioning as one of the league's best offenses whenever allowed to not play in the cold, while the J-e-t-s, Jets, Jets, Jets have battled to one-score finals in seven of their last nine games. Will this combination produce an overly great football game? Probably not.
  11. Raiders-Buccaneers. The Bucs have been a fun offense more weeks than not this season, while watching Brock Bowers blossom into arguably the best receiving option at the position as a rookie has been a joy. Of course, the 7-point spread (second-highest of the week) reflects the reality that this one isn't expected to be overly close.
  12. Saints-Giants. The week's second-lowest game total (40.5) at least could feature Drew Lock under center, who is more of a fun-bad QB than a just-bad QB. Even then, I won't blame anyone for booting this matchup from the early-afternoon quad box.
  13. Jaguars-Titans. Anything can happen when Will Levis is under center, although he's been slightly more controlled since returning from injury. Good news for him and the Titans certainly, but not for NFL RedZone viewers. This is the week's only matchup with a game total south of 40.

10. Three bold predictions for Week 14:

Every week I'll put my reputation on the line regarding a handful of players I believe could outperform their general fantasy-related expectations. The majority will NOT work out—they wouldn't be bold otherwise—but will that stop me? Hell, no!

Without further adieu: Let's get weird.

  • Giants RB Tyrone Tracy: A talented rookie serving as largely the only consistent source of goodness inside an offense with few other places to go with the football actually set up in a solid matchup against a defense that typically funnels production to the ground … Is that something you might be interested in? I'm calling for 120 total yards and a trip to the end zone for Mr. Tracy in this one.
  • Packers WR Christian Watson: The living definition of a boom-or-bust field-stretching WR, Watson is quite good at getting open deep, but the whole "catch the football" part of the equation occasionally gives him some problems. I like his chances of overcoming that obstacle at least a few times against a Lions secondary that remains banged up and loves to take their chances in man coverage—risky business against this size-speed demon with a QB never afraid to take chances deep. Give me 5 receptions, 125 yards, and 1 TD for Watson on Thursday night.
  • Bills WR Khalil Shakir: The Rams have been flamed for some huge WR performances this season and are surrendering the largest combined EPA per play margin of Week 14 in this matchup. Shakir has gone a whopping eight straight games without finding the end zone despite continuing to be Josh Allen's most-reliable target. Don't be surprised if Allen and Co. are forced to keep their foot on the gas more than usual against this ever-lethal Rams offense when healthy. Calling 11 targets, 10 receptions, 95 yards, and 1 TD for Shakir this week. Book it!

Players highlighted last week and results: Rome Odunze (2-25-0), Kenneth Walker (16-49-0), Tank Dell (1-23-0). "The process was right!" The man called out as his wife and kids packed their final belongings into the car and drove off into the sunset.