Living the fantasy life isn't always all fun and games, but that doesn't mean we can't appreciate the ups and downs that any given season presents along the way. Accordingly, we'll be chronicling some of the ebbs and flows of the fantasy calendar as we progress through the 2024 season. And just like that: We're on to Week 3 …

Mentioning pretty much any early-season trend for better or worse almost inevitably leads to receiving some version of:

“It's only been two weeks.”

“Small sample size.”

“I can't trust him keeping this up, it's too early in the season.”

These conclusions aren't necessarily wrong. The 2024 fantasy year is only two weeks old, we are dealing with a small sample size, and it is objectively early in the season.

That said: When exactly does the page turn to a point where we can begin trusting the data? I've usually been willing to mostly disregard offseason agendas or data from previous seasons by roughly Week 4, but what if that's too early or late?

I've decided to download a helluva lot of CSVs (shoutout StatHead) to get to the bottom of this: The below table shows the r coefficients (correlations) of fantasy points per game (PPR) from the top-12 QB/TE and top-24 RB/WR scorers for each week compared to the end of the season over the past three years.

Higher numbers indicate a stronger correlation between the performance of the position's top performers through that week. Typically, R values between 0-0.19 are considered very weak, 0.2-0.39 weak, 0.4-0.59 moderate, 0.6-0.79 strong, and 0.81 very strong.

As you can see, not all early-season production is created equal when it comes to figuring out what is ultimately more likely to be real or fake.

Some high-level takeaways:

  • QB: Doesn't carry a moderately strong correlation until Week 3, but the position quickly catches up and carries the most consistently strong correlation of any position by Week 7.
     
  • RB: Early-season performance easily carries the weakest correlation with eventual season-long production and doesn't qualify as a strong correlation until about Week 8. It takes until Week 4 to have as strong of an RB correlation as WR and TE experience after Week 1. However, RB correlation fully catches up during the second half of the season and even out-performs WRs and TEs by Week 12.
     
  • WR: Is our most-correlated position after four weeks of action, indicating there's a better chance that early-season ballers at WR will continue to put up big-time numbers than at RB and QB.
     
  • TE: Trails only WR in terms of very early-season correlation. This indicates that we should be more confident in productive pass-catchers keeping on keeping on relative to RBs.

Moral of the story: It takes five-to-six weeks for QB, WR and TE production to reach a strong correlation with season-long performance, while RBs are closer to seven-to-eight weeks.

Hell, early-season RB performance hasn't reached even a moderate correlation (+0.4) until Week 4 over the past three seasons. Out of everything we've seen through two weeks, there's a good chance some of the high-end RB production is the fakest. This doesn't mean some of 2024's top performers so far won't find a way to keep on balling out; just realize out of all the positions, RB tends to be the wonkiness when attempting to predict long-term production.

Speaking of potential frauds, let's take a quick look at the top-five RBs in PPR points next to their offseason ADP:

Two players have clearly made a surprising leap relative to what we thought about their fantasy upside just a few short weeks ago – so what gives? Is Alvin Kamara and J.K. Dobbins' hot start REAL or FAKE?

Fraud check: Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins

Is Dobbins a great story? Absolutely.

Is he also drastically out-performing even the most optimistic expectations? You bet.

The ex-Ravens veteran is averaging 9.9 yards per carry at the moment and leads the NFL in rushing. His 5.16 rush yards over expected per carry is more than the majority of RBs can attest to averaging period. The man is objectively playing some great football … but should we REALLY expect this to continue?

Consider: Dobbins and the Chargers have been gifted back-to-back pristine matchups to open up the season against the Raiders and Panthers, who allowed 151 and 180 rushing yards in their other early-season matchups. This has helped Dobbins make the absolute most out of his touches, as he hasn't exactly been dominating the backfield through two weeks:

Could this utilization shift more in Dobbins' favor as the season goes on? Sure, but as it stands right meow, JK has just the 25th-best utilization score at the position behind guys like Rachaad White and Devin Singletary. The Chargers rank 31st in targets to RBs this season (5), so failure to completely dominate the rushing pie will make it difficult for Dobbins to keep on keeping on.

I'd be VERY surprised if Dobbins and the Chargers are able to play in such run-friendly, positive game-script environments against the Steelers and Chiefs over these next two weeks, while a hobbled Justin Herbert (ankle) could convince defenses to devote more resources to the line of scrimmage than ever. It's also not exactly a given that Dobbins – who has played 11 total football games since 2021 – maintains his current level of good health.

Ruling: Fraud. Recent trades involving Dobbins have netted established high-end WRs like Zay Flowers and Jameson Williams, DeVonta Smith and even Garrett Wilson. Don't give the man away, but WR-needy rosters should strongly consider shipping the 25-year-old RB for a legit upside WR2 if given the chance, as we're currently looking at an RB1 with something much closer to a mid-tier RB2-caliber workload.

Fraud check: Saints RB Alvin Kamara

Let's see what glass-half-full and glass-half-empty guys have to say about this one (note: I am both guys):

Glass-half-full: The Saints have gone from 32nd (14.4%) to first (52.3%) in play-action rate and 30th (37.6%) to 11th (72.9% in pre-snap shift/motion rate: New OC Klint Kubiak is pressing all the "easy" buttons that we want to see out of play-callers, and it's accordingly helped alleviate some serious preseason offensive line concerns.

Overall, New Orleans ranks second in rush yards before contact (2.2) after ranking 24th collectively from 2021-2023 (1.1). Throw in an elite (for RBs) 20% target share (tied for second at the position) and essentially zero touch competition, and it's no wonder Kamara is Fantasy Life's consensus RB4 ahead of Week 3 and legend Rob Waziak's RB10 for the rest of the season.

Glass-half-empty: The Panthers look like the single-worst team/defense in the league at the moment, while the Cowboys have regularly had all sorts of problems defending the run despite their ability to generate plenty of turnovers in recent seasons.

Right now, Kamara is averaging his most yards per carry (5.7) since his rookie season, and his 13.1 yards per reception is laughably high and would be a new NFL record for an RB with decent usage--but is it just due to this underrated comfy schedule? We shouldn't fault the man for making the most out of his opportunities, but is it realistic to expect the 29-year-old veteran to keep this going behind an offensive line that was widely considered one of the worst in the NFL just a few short weeks ago?

I do think the latter argument could carry some weight on certain rosters overflowing with great RBs. Recent trades involving Kamara have netted guys like CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson and Nico Collins straight up in return – three talented young WRs who I would be confident in parting ways with Kamara for given their respective upside.

That said …

Ruling: Not a fraud. We have a proven talent in a seemingly ascending offense in an offense that seems plenty content to feed him a true workhorse role. God forbid the Saints engage in a competitive football game soon and we could really see the receiving upside at hand come to fruition. Maybe Kamara regresses a tad and finishes closer to RB12 than RB1, but it'd be pretty shocking at this point to see him finish outside the position's top-12 options with a little bit of help from the injury Gods.

Good luck to everyone this week and always remember: It's a great day to be great!