Fantasy Football Buy, Sell, Hold: Don't Fret About Chase Brown, Cade Otton
No one wants a stagnant roster. It's time to make some moves.
Let’s get into some buyin’, sellin’, and holdin’.
BUY
NFL GMs, They're Just Like Us!
Aw… There, there. Don't feel bad about your 3-5 team. You're not alone!
Poor team management is just as pervasive throughout the NFL as it is in fantasy football. And we were reminded of this on Tuesday when Jerry Jones traded with the Panthers, giving up a hefty pay day for … *checks notes* Jonathan Mingo?
Sure, hindsight is 20/20, but sometimes no one gives a sh*t. Sometimes, we just want the free hit of dopamine that comes from a completed trade! And it would seem that Jerry Jones agrees.
The silver lining here: ANYONE might be open to a lopsided trade if they're desperate enough. If NFL GMs can do it, why can’t we?
So what are you waiting for?? Go send some trade offers to those 3-5 fantasy managers — you never know, there may be a Jerry Jones in your league just chomping at the bit!
NEVER SURRENDER: A 24-Hour Trading Hat Trick!
Take a look at your win/loss record right now. If you aren’t mathematically eliminated from the playoffs (betcha aren’t), then it’s time to get off your ass and DO SOMETHING ABOUT SECURING A SPOT!
(Sorry, 7-2 teams. This part isn’t for you. Go do whatever winners do…)
I’m talking to the “meh” teams. The middle of the pack teams. The generic, vanilla, basic, and unfulfilling teams. Here's looking at you, Mid!
Tough love time: You need to stop white knuckling your way through the season and make some trades.
And, no, I don’t want to hear that you can’t get a trade done in your league. In the last 24 hours, I’ve seen a 4-5 team in my home league make THREE separate trades with THREE separate managers.
He pulled off the 24-hour hat trick, just because he tried.
It can be done. It has been done. And if you need to make an extra push to secure a playoff spot, you have to get it done.
Don’t stop until you get that beautiful notification: “A trade has been completed.”
SELL
This week we're selling:
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
Hey sharks, this week I'm seeking to trade away a WR who just posted seven catches for 180 yards and two TDs in Week 9! Huge value! Who’s in?
What I won't tell the sharks is that JSN's flamin' HOT production in Week 9 was suspiciously… way too hot.
We haven't seen this type of production from Njigba since… Well, ever.
Throughout the entirety of the 2023 season, JSN never once logged a 100-yard game. In fact, his best performance in 2023 came in Week 7 when he caught four passes for 63 yards and a TD. Through those 17 games, JSN only hauled in a total of four TDs in 2023.
What about now? Well, while JSN has seen an increase in targets at times this season, these have only resulted in a WR12 or higher finish TWICE through nine weeks. So it’s pretty hard to believe he’ll suddenly continue to put up WR1 levels of production when this isn’t his usual level of game play.
Add in JSN’s bye in Week 10 and DK Metcalf’s return in Week 11, and it’s a recipe to sell high now.
Short-Sighted Rigidity
Dwain put it succinctly:
And he’s right. So many fantasy managers tend to get doomy and gloomy when their player has a rough matchup or underperforms.
We’ve got to break free from the trance of the tunnel vision that holds our fantasy logic hostage!
Be flexible in this stretch of the game. Don't panic sell and don't panic buy. We're looking for patterns, not just one-week outliers. (I'm looking at you, Adam Trautman.)
How do you find trends to prevent the panic? Easy: Utilize the Utilization Report.
HOLD
Sometimes we need to just take a second to think. Don't overreact.
This week, we're holding:
RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
The internet was buzzing as it always does during the NFL trade deadline. *buzz* "Khalil Herbert to the Bengals!" *buzz* "RIP to Chase Brown's bell cow role!" *buzz* “Sell! Sell! Sell!”
But I urge you to take a deep breath.
Mere hours after the Bears and Bengals finalized their trade, the Bengals placed Zack Moss on IR. And now that Moss is reported to be "out indefinitely," let's try to ignore all the buzzing panic online.
Is Hebert going to see touches? Of course. But panic selling Brown just because the Bengals traded for an RB to take the place of the Zack-Moss-sized hole in their roster isn't the play. This was a move they needed to make.
Don't believe me? Berry made the call to ease panic before Moss' IR news was even announced:
So, yes, I'm still in on Chase Brown. I am a company woman, after all.
TE Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’ve heard rumblings over the last few days of concern for Cade Otton once Mike Evans returns. There’s fear that he’ll lose all of the beautiful targets and attention he’s gained during the absence of Evans and Chris Godwin over the last few weeks.
And while Otton has benefitted, he wasn’t exactly “quiet” prior to the Bucs’ WR woes. Otton was steadily tiptoeing around top-10 TE production (oof, say that 10 times fast) in roughly half of his outings before Week 8. And since Week 8, Otton has solidified himself in TE1 territory.
So has Otton benefited from Evans and Godwin’s absenteeism? Yes. But will it disappear once Evans returns? It doesn’t seem likely due to the role he’s carved out on this offense.
In this tumultuous TE landscape, I want in on the Otton experience that is currently providing WR-level fantasy points for as long as I can get it. So Evans or no Evans, I’m not letting go.