August is here and we are finally starting to get live draft data, causing real ADP shifts that we can analyze and react to. Of course, most redraft leagues are still a few weeks away from their draft date, but it's never too early to start preparing.
Fantasy Life's 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit is LIVE (and free)! Click here to access all of the content you need to dominate your drafts this summer.
I'll be checking in regularly throughout the month of August with updates on who is rising and who is falling in the ESPN Live Draft ADP and whether I'm in or out at their new ADP. Things are just starting to heat up, so buckle in and get ready for a fun month of drafting.
While this piece is focused on ESPN ADP, I highly recommend checking out our ADP tool that has data from all the major fantasy sites so you can compare across whatever platforms you play on and find the best values for each of your leagues.
ADP Risers
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Earlier this offseason there were concerns about Joe Burrow's wrist injury but those seem to be fading now that they have hit the field for training camp.
Assuming the Bengals can work out the Ja'Marr Chase contract situation, I do really like the weapons that Burrow will be working with this season. Cincinnati got a draft steal with rookie Jermaine Burton and early reports have been very positive on second-year WR Andrei Iosivas.
The Bengals offense has the potential to be among the most explosive in the league, but even in that scenario, Burrow's value as a fantasy QB is only so high due to his lack of rushing. Things are trending in the right direction for Burrow and Co., but his ADP of 63.1 on ESPN is a tough sell for me. I would strongly prefer to take one of the elite quarterbacks who goes a couple of rounds ahead of him or wait and take Jordan Love or Kyler Murray a couple of rounds later. I want to be in on the Cincinnati offense but my exposure is unlikely to come via Burrow.
Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
Following some glowing reports and electric highlights from training camp, the hype train is building for the second-year back in Cincinnati.
The Bengals will almost certainly use a committee approach with Brown and Zack Moss, but Brown is the more explosive player of the two and showed the ability to handle a large workload in college (29.5 touches per game in his final season). I think there is more upside here than most people realize because they simply view Brown as a change-of-pace back.
Brown's ADP on ESPN is only up 1.9 spots in the last seven days, but he's likely to continue to rise up draft boards in the next few weeks. If the positive reports continue Brown could (and should) be a top-100 pick by the start of the season. He will almost certainly be a priority target for me on draft day.
Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs
Another player making waves early in camp is Chiefs rookie WR Xavier Worthy. His speed is evident and there are reports of Mahomes regularly connecting with the rookie on deep passes. Since before the NFL Draft, I have been advocating for the fact that Worthy is different from past speed merchants because he had a strong college production profile to go along with his blazing 40-yard dash.
In addition to positive early reports, Worthy could be forced into a big role early in the season if Rashee Rice ends up getting suspended. That is looking less likely now that we know Rice's first court date is in December, but this will loom over the Chiefs offense all season, with the potential to shake up the fantasy value of their pass-catchers.
At pick 114 on ESPN, Worthy is still a screaming value and has the potential to rise significantly over the rest of this month. If he doesn't, he will be one of my favorite bench receivers to add to my squad.
George Kittle
Most of the 49ers' offseason headlines have revolved around what Brandon Aiyuk's future looks like, but how that situation shakes out will have an impact on all of San Francisco's pass-catchers. The possibility of an Aiyuk trade is the only reason that makes sense to me for why Kittle would be rising when every other top-10 TE has fallen (slightly) over the last seven days.
Kittle remains one of the top receiving TEs in the NFL and is coming off his best season since 2019, but his price makes me uneasy in fantasy drafts. I like Kittle, but his ADP is one of my least favorite at the position. I would rather take Trey McBride, Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, or Kyle Pitts at their current prices when compared to Kittle.
If Aiyuk gets traded this ADP would be fine (although he would probably rise further in that scenario), but with Aiyuk still on the roster this cost in drafts is too high for me due to the amount of target competition Kittle faces. If things stay as they are, I expect Kittle to be too boom-bust on a weekly basis for my liking in redraft leagues.
Fantasy Life's 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit is LIVE (and free)! Click here to access all of the content you need to dominate your drafts this summer.
ADP Fallers
T.J. Hockenson
Hockenson is the biggest overall ADP faller on ESPN over the last seven days, which makes sense with his return from a significant knee injury making it difficult to project when he will actually be available for fantasy managers. The Vikings' offense is also set for a downgrade in QB play with Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy slated to start for them this season.
When healthy, Hockenson has been one of the most productive TEs in the league and has topped 900 receiving yards in each of the last two seasons. While I don't expect much from Hockenson this season, if his ADP gets cheap enough and your league has IR spots where you can stash him and then add another player he could be a worthwhile late-round lottery ticket. I don't anticipate drafting Hockenson this year, but he is someone I'll be keeping an eye on if he hits waivers during the season due to this upside over the second half of the season.
Nick Chubb
Another player coming off of major injury, Nick Chubb is down 7.6 spots on ESPN and is now going after pick 100. Despite the hype video of him squatting 600+ pounds, the market is rightly adjusting to the fact that Chubb will be limited for a good portion of the season. We don't even know if Chubb will be active for Week 1, as he's currently on the PUP with no definitive timetable for his return.
I would love to see Chubb get back to full health and dominate like his old self, but we have to be realistic about his ability to do that in 2024. If it does happen, it will likely be over the second half of the season, which does have value but is not worth a top-100 pick in my opinion. It's also worth noting that D'Onta Foreman left practice with a neck injury and it remains to be seen whether he will be available to start the season.
There is no denying that Chubb could be a big win for fantasy managers taking him in the late rounds if he can return to anything close to his former self. At this point my biggest concern is just how much of the season he will be back for and if it is worth using a roster spot on him for that period of time. It will be important to stay up to date on Chubb's recovery over the remainder of the offseason for any clues about when we might see him back on the field and earning a real workload.
Joe Mixon
The entire RB position tends to get drafted higher on sites like ESPN and Yahoo when compared to best ball, but I still had sticker shock when I first saw Mixon's ESPN ADP. Originally, he was going in the middle of the third round ahead of younger and more explosive players like De'Von Achane and James Cook. He has now fallen behind those two, but his ADP at the end of the third round is still higher than I would be willing to take him.
Yes, Mixon should see the bulk of the carries in a good Texans offense, but he has really struggled in the efficiency department over the last few seasons. In 2023, among RBs with at least 50 carries Mixon ranked:
- 39th in yards per carry (4.0)
- 55th in yards after contact per attempt (2.51)
- 54th in PFF's elusive rating (39.0)
Overdrafting predictable volume is a dangerous trap in fantasy football and Mixon seems to be the clearest case for that in 2024. There is a point in drafts where I would be happy to take Mixon, but that is about two rounds lower than his current ADP so I don't expect to end up with him on my redraft teams.
Jerry Jeudy
The first three ADP fallers all make sense to me, but this one is a little surprising because Jeudy's ADP was already quite low at pick 140, and now he has fallen six spots further. Fantasy managers have been burned by Jeudy at times in the past, but he still projects for a solid role in this Cleveland offense. The most recent Fantasy Life projections have Jeudy getting 90 targets and going for 700+ yards.
His TD projection is modest but we know TDs are volatile so he could easily outperform that projection if the Browns' passing game is good. With an ADP in the mid-140s, there is plenty of upside for Jeudy to outperform his cost in drafts and be a valuable bench receiver for fantasy managers.
