For this week's roundtable, I invited Kendall Valenzuela, Matthew Freedman, and Dwain McFarland to help fantasy players sort out the Chiefs' backfield, thet Top 5 tight ends, the must-start rookies, and more. Much, much more.
Let's jump in!
1. How does Isiah Pacheco’s injury impact the Chiefs’ fantasy outlook? Which players are poised to step up, and how does this affect overall offensive production?
Kendall: First of all, can someone please turn off these injuries?? The backfield will become a full-blown committee in Kansas City, but I have Samaje Perine on more of my teams than Carson Steele or Kareem Hunt. Perine is a better pass-blocker and pass-catcher than the others, so I hope that catapults him to more fantasy points. I'm really not excited about starting any of these running backs in this situation. We could see more Patrick Mahomes because of the Pacheco injury, and the Chiefs could turn to their receivers more. Ultimately, I'm starting Perine in some leagues where I have no better option and crossing my fingers that it works out.
Freedman: Injuries are terrible for real-life players and fantasy investors, but running backs don't matter much within an offense's overall scheme. The Chiefs might pass the ball a little more than they otherwise would have with Pacheco, but they'll probably be fine whenever they want to run the ball. I expect a split committee between rookie Carson Steele on early downs and veteran Samaje Perine on passing downs.
Dwain: With the injury to Pacheco, I expect a committee approach between Carson Steele and Samaje Perine. Steele handled most of the backup work on the ground while Perine took the passing downs. That probably leads to some early box scores like Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle. However, if one back manages to wrestle away the majority of snaps, volume is king at RB, and we could quickly see one of these players boost up rankings sets. Of course, Kareem Hunt (practice squad) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (IR) could further muddy the waters in the coming weeks. Kansas City is already a pass-first operation, so expect Andy Reid to supplement the run game with more quick passes and designed stuff around the line of scrimmage, which could create an opportunity for more looks for Xavier Worthy.
Jess: The Chiefs' targets have been concentrated among Isiah Pacheco (8), Rashee Rice (15), Travis Kelce (7), and Xavier Worthy (7) through Week 2. With Pacheco out and the running back room now consisting of Kareem Hunt, Samaje Perine, and Carson Steele, it's difficult to predict who will emerge. I see Steele as the primary/short-yardage back, with Perine taking on receiving duties. Kelce may benefit the most from Pacheco's absence, as Mahomes will need a reliable short-yardage target. While Kelce hasn't been a major fantasy producer so far, he did have a big play called back last week, and I expect a bounce-back performance in Week 3.
I'm not concerned about the Chiefs' offensive production without Pacheco. Andy Reid has a track record of making any personnel combination work. I expect some creative adjustments in the backfield, and Week 3 should clarify Reid's strategy moving forward.
2. Now that we’ve seen two weeks of the season, which rookies have proven to be must-starts across all fantasy lineups? Also, which low-cost rookies are you targeting for value in daily fantasy?
Kendall: I owe an apology to the Raiders' rookie tight end Brock Bowers! When he was drafted, we talked a lot about how this was a bad landing spot for the tight end, but he's been SOLID these last two weeks. Looking at the landscape of tight ends so far this season is beyond disappointing, but Bowers has been a shining light for anyone who drafted him. Per Dwain's Utilization Report, Bowers now boasts a 24% target share with an 8.9 Utilization Score for the season.
Here are the Top 5 TEs ranked by Utilizaion Score. I'm sneaking them in front of the paywall for all of you. Thank me later!
I think a good callout for a low-cost rookie with some value is Cardinals' running back Trey Benson. He doesn't hold much standalone fantasy value right now, but if James Conner were to go down with an injury, Benson would be the clear next man up. We saw him get a utilization uptick in Week 2, and I think he is a great player to stash right now.
Freedman: Looking at our weekly fantasy football rankings, I see QB Jayden Daniels, WRs Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, and TE Brock Bowers as the four must-start rookies, with WRs Brian Thomas and Xavier Worthy sitting on the borderline as upside options. For DFS, WR Jalen McMillan stands out at $3,700 on DraftKings. He should see soft coverage against the Broncos, given that No. 1 CB Pat Surtain will likely shadow teammate Mike Evans.
Jess: Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jayden Daniels, and Brock Bowers are must-starts, and I have each of them starting in at least one league. I also have Brian Thomas, Xavier Worthy, and Ladd McConkey starting in the FLEX position this week. I am confident in Thomas and hopeful with Worthy. Please surprise me, McConkey!
Rome Odunze may have his best week yet with the Bears playing the Colts. We saw the Colts' terrible rush defense on display last week against the Packers, but Indianapolis also has a weak secondary, led by Kenny Moore II, who is having a down year. Nick Cross leads the team in defensive tackles with 29, but the Colts have 0 interceptions on the year and have given up 400 yards per game. The only team to surrender more yards? The Rams. And while the Colts rank 8th in pass yards against, that is mainly due to the Packers' run-heavy game plan in Week 2; in Week 1, against the Texans, they ranked 22nd. If — and it's a big if — Caleb Williams improves, and Odunze is healthy, the Bears' well-rounded WR could have a big week.
Dwain: Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Jayden Daniels, and Brock Bowers should be in starting lineups in all formats. Xavier Worthy is the player with the best chance to catapult himself into must-start status. With Hollywood Brown now likely out for the season, the runway is clear for Worthy to ascend to the No. 3 option, and the speedster offers big-play upside. Worthy is a name I still love in daily fantasy. Rome Odunze should also have bigger days ahead but needs to get healthy (MCL), and Shane Waldron must do a better job of putting Caleb Williams into a position where he can succeed.
3. Who do you predict will finish the 2024-2025 season as the top 5 tight ends, and what makes them stand out in their position?
Kendall: In no particular order, let's go with Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, George Kittle, Sam LaPorta, and Travis Kelce. We've already talked about Bowers, but if he continues to get this kind of volume (17 targets, 15 receptions, 156 receiving yards), then we can expect a finish inside the top 5.
Trey McBride is in an Arizona Cardinals offense that I love this season. He has an 86% route participation and 29% target share through two games, and I am trying to buy him from anyone in my leagues willing to sell. George Kittle will get a boost from the injuries on the 49ers offense. We should see him elevate, especially with Deebo Samuel sidelined (even for a few weeks). I faded the Chiefs last season, so I feel inclined to put Kelce in here because of their injuries and because I just can't fade them again. He's probably the long shot, though, from this list to make the Top 5.
Freedman: The tight end position is volatile, and almost everyone is playing so poorly right now that I have no idea who will finish in the top five — but right now, I'll go with (in no order) Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Dalton Kincaid. Bowers has dominated through two games. McBride might be the No. 1 option in his offense. Kittle should benefit without RB Christian McCaffrey (Achilles, IR) and WR Deebo Samuel (calf). Kelce is a proven producer. And Kincaid still feels like the guy most likely to lead the Bills in targets by the end of the season.
Jess: I am going with Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, George Kittle, Sam LaPorta, and Travis Kelce in a very loose order. For the season, all these TEs rank in the Top 10 in targets and are known entities with proven success. Bowers is a rookie but a top prospect at the position with huge expectations that he's met. It's easy to panic about tight ends, given the position's overall production so far, but McBride, Kittle, LaPorta, and Kelce are on teams with proven quarterbacks and a decent target share. For his part, Minshew is second only to Brock Purdy (Kittle's QB) in passing yards per game, with 266.5. Marvin Harrison Jr.'s and Jameson Wiliams' breakout years may impact McBride's and LaPorta's volume, but the tight end position is critical to Arizona's and Detroit's offenses, respectively. If I could pick 6 TEs, I'd add Kincaid for similar reasons—a proven player with a great QB on a high-octane offense.
Dwain: Based on talent, utilization, and offensive environment, here are my top five in order of preference, along with some quick notes.
- Trey McBride: High-end talent with more playing time and a better QB than Brock Bowers.
- Travis Kelce: Playing a ton and without Marquise Brown and Isiah Pacheco, things will quickly funnel to Kelce along with Rashee Rice. How quickly folks forget Kelce's 21.5 points per game last year in the playoffs.
- Brock Bowers: Young alpha, but I trust Gardner Minshew less than Patrick Mahomes or Kyler Murray. Bowers needs more playing time (71% route participation).
- Sam LaPorta: The emergence of Jameson Williams creates more volatility in LaPorta's weekly range of outcomes. He has the talent, but it is a crowded offense willing to run the rock. This is George Kittle all over again, but Williams isn't a lock to remain red-hot once defenses begin to scheme to take him away.
- Dalton Kincaid: Kincaid's 80% route participation tells us the door is wide open for a massive rebound. However, he must do more as a target earner (13%), which was a concern I wrote about entering 2024. He is still a young player, so I am giving him the benefit of the doubt. It was a VERY close call versus George Kittle (going nuclear this weekend), though.
4. Preseason buzz wasn’t as high for teams like the Saints, Vikings, Seahawks, Raiders, and Chargers (outside of Jim Harbaugh). With these teams now exceeding expectations to varying degrees, which players from these teams have earned weekly start consideration that you didn’t expect?
Kendall: If you have Rashid Shaheed right now, you have to play him. We have seen so many injuries in the first two weeks, and we have also seen some poor wide receiver performances from fantasy players we thought we could rely on. So if this Saints team continues looking this good (thanks largely to Klint Kubiak), then you have to keep riding the hot hand. Of course we can expect some regression, but the Saints look legit right now.
I'm also excited we got to see a Jaxon Smith-Njigba breakout game. It's exciting what this Seahawks’ offense can look like without Shane Waldron (I'm a Seahawks fan, so I can say this). Ultimately, we will see if he can continue this target share over a banged-up Tyler Lockett, but it's been fun to watch!
Freedman: The guy who stands out to me is Sam Darnold. He has looked like a competent Kirk Cousins replacement through two games. I have Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Darnold in one SuperFlex league. Clearly, Allen is my QB1, but it's no longer a given each week that I start Burrow over Darnold. Now, I at least need to think about it, and if I had started Darnold in Weeks 1-2 over Burrow, I'd be in a better position right now.
Jess: I grabbed J.K. Dobbins off waivers after Week 1 and am starting him everywhere I have him. He is in top form this season and somersaulting in the endzone. Derek Carr's had an incredible start to the season and has the top passer rating (142.4) after two weeks, showing a great return on value. I am fading Tyler Lockett and high on Smith-Nijgba and Geno Smith in Seattle. Smith is 9th in PPR points per game, 6th in passing yards per game, 4th in completion%, and 7th in passer rating.
Dwain: The Saints’ players received massive UPGRADES in the Utilization Report, and while it might slow down, there are many reasons to believe the team can keep it up under Klint Kubiak. The biggest riser is Rashid Shaheed, who is now a low-end WR2, making him a must-start in most leagues. Derek Carr is a low-end QB1 now, making him a viable option on many fantasy teams. I also love Freedman's callout on Sam Darnold; I have him just a little below Carr. J.K. Dobbins is also here to stay, but he won't be able to sustain RB1 production on less than 45% of the attempts, so expect regression to RB2-territory.
Which playoff bet are you taking for the 2024-2025 season? Here are the odds (via FanDuel):
- Arizona Cardinals (+198 yes, -250 no)
- Cincinnati Bengals (-130 yes, +106 no)
- Green Bay Packers (+116 yes, -142 no)
- Los Angeles Chargers (+100 yes, -122 no)
- Los Angeles Rams (+420 yes, -600 no)
- Philadelphia Eagles (-375 yes, +285 no)
Kendall: GIVE ME THE ARIZONA CARDINALS BABY! Not only do they have Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr., but they also have a cotton candy burrito at State Farm Stadium — that's a recipe for success.
In all seriousness, though, seeing the Murray and Harrison Jr. connection on full display in Week 2 was great. I think this is a team that people can't sleep on for a potential playoff bet, especially because of all the injuries in the NFC West.
Freedman: I'm quickly taking the Chargers to make the playoffs at +100. The odds (+100 yes, -122 no) should be flipped.
Jess: I'm with Kendall and taking the Cardinals. The defense hinders their playoff potential, but Kyler looks sharp this season. He's escaping the pass rush and already has 116 rushing yards on the season. With James Conner, Harrison Jr., and Trey McBride playing well, I can easily see a postseason in Arizona's future. I wouldn't take them on a Super Bowl bet, but a playoff spot, absolutely.
Dwain: Gimme the Chargers! Jim Harbaugh strikes again with his win in the trenches no-nonsense approach. Eat your hearts out, spreadsheet nerds (looking in the mirror).
Pop Culture: I binged Hulu’s The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives in just a couple of weeks — it was all over TikTok, and I had to know more. What have you been streaming outside of football since the season kicked off?
Kendall: *adding Secret Lives of Mormon Wives to watch list*
Honestly, right now, there isn't a ton of time for streaming, but I have been watching The Sopranos for the last couple of months. It's my first time watching the series, and oh my goodness, it is so good. NO SPOILERS, PLEASE.
Freedman: I haven't been streaming anything since the season started. With dinner, I'm either listening to football podcasts, on the phone with my mom, or rewatching old Seinfeld DVDs. I have a very exciting life.
Dwain: We need unfettered access to the life of Freedman. Let's just stick a go-pro on him and stream it live. I can already envision Freedman pitching it to our managing editor, Nando Di Fino:
Nando: So, what have you come up with?
Freedman: I think I can sum up the show for you in one word. Nothing.
Nando: Nothing?
Freedman: Nothing.
Nando: What does that mean?
Freedman: The show is about … nothing!
Nando: What's the premise?
Freedman: Nothing happens on the show. You see, it's just like life. You know, you eat, you go shopping, you read, you eat, you read, you go shopping.
