Fantasy Football Expert Roundtable: George Pickens' Upside, NFL MVP Picks, and More
In this week’s roundtable, we bring in Fantasy Life’s Sheesh-Master, Ian Hartitz and Jagger May (aka @JagSays) of Footballguys.
Let’s get into it:
The George Pickens Conundrum
Q: George Pickens had not one, but TWO TDs called back Monday night. For the Pickens managers who lost their matchups due to these calls, do you have any words of wisdom to bestow upon these unfortunate teams? Any hope for George Pickens’ two feet moving forward?
Jag: If Ian is a priest of the Sheesh Gods, I’m a Shaman of the Oof. Think of it like the Force except it’s actually real and 40-year-old incels don’t fight about it on the internet. Anyway, back to George Pickens. He has not been blessed.
However, we can’t ignore the higher upside of the entire offense under Russell Wilson and the fact that Pickens actually tries for him. Wilson has beaten the “washed” allegations and is delivering the football all three levels of the field with zip. The question you should be asking is “How excited are you that George Pickens now has the consistent opportunity for these types of plays?”
Ian: The Sheesh gods truly work in mysterious ways. Sadly, Pickens' fantasy managers are already plenty familiar with these sorts of problems. Take his 2-29-0 "dud" against the Broncos earlier this season that featured Pickens largely stuffing ace CB Pat Surtain into a locker for 60 minutes.
So why should we expect anything to change? Well, Russell Wilson partying like it's 2018 again certainly helps. Small sample-size be damned, we're looking at the QB8 in EPA per dropback (+0.190) and QB7 in completion percentage over expected (+5.1%) after two starts. And here's the really cool thing: The upcoming schedule only gets easier:
- Week 10 at Commanders: 22nd in PPR points per game allowed to WRs
- Week 11 vs. Ravens: 31st
- Week 12 at Browns: 27th
- Week 13 at Bengals: 16th
- Week 14 vs. Browns: 27th
- Week 15 at Eagles: 19th
- Week 16 at Ravens: 31st
Overall, Pickens has the third-easiest schedule at the position over the next five weeks. I'm not saying top-10 numbers are inevitable, but possible? Abso-lutely.
Cooter: We all remember exactly where we were when George Pickens landed on his right foot inbounds TWICE on Monday night for what many thought should have been ruled a TD. And as a fellow right-footer, I get it!
I land on my right foot everytime I jump over a crack so I don’t break my momma’s back!
I land on my right foot when I get out of bed in the morning!
Right feet are the breadwinners. Left feet are just emotional support feet - we all know this!
The Tight End Landscape
Cooterdoodle: Oh boyyyy! I waited sooo patiently for National Tight Ends Day!
With 16 total TDs in Week 8, those tight little ends did NOT disappoint! But let's not forget that this position has had a rocky start in 2024...
So, which TEs are you excited about moving forward? Any flukey TE traps to avoid? Which sneaky TE plays should managers be targeting in trades?
Jag: Inside Hunter Henry are two wolves. Drake Maye raises one while the other is hand-fed lead-based paint chips from Jacoby Brissett. As long as Drake Maye’s wolf is running the show you want Hunter Henry and there isn’t a soul in the world who believes Brissett would come back full-time.
Henry's the TE9 in Fantasy Points and the TE11 in PPG over the last three weeks Drake Maye has been the starter. Beggars can’t be choosers in the TE game; I’m willing to ignore the Patriots’ Stank on Henry.
Ian: Zach Ertz is boring. There used to be an entire Twitter account simply devoted to pointing out that he never breaks tackles. The man turns 34 in a few weeks; it's fair to not be overly excited about the Commanders' TE1.
But you know what Ertz still does pretty well these days? Score fantasy points. The TE13 in PPR points per game ahead of guys like Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, and the Ravens TEs (of course), the ex-Eagle/Cardinal veteran continues to play a near every-snap role inside a Commanders offense that ranks third in scoring through eight weeks of action.
So what do you need to do in order to acquire Ertz? Well, potentially nothing! Ertz is only rostered on 56.8% of ESPN teams and 34% of Yahoo squads. Let's face it: Ertz would be on the cover of every waiver wire article in the world if his name was, I don't know, Ben Sinnott or something instead. Remember: Style points don't count for extra in fantasy land, don't be afraid to scoop up the No. 2 target earner inside one of the league's best offenses to this point.
Cooter: I’m always excited about tight ends.
(Pause)
But more than anything, I’m excited to watch Tampa Bay get torn apart by the position every week. Mark Andrews vs Tampa in Week 7: DAWG. Kyle Pitts vs Tampa in Week 8: DAWG. Kelce and Kittle (soon to be) vs Tampa: DAWGS. (good boys!)
Lock it in.
Traps - SOUND THE ALARMS AND REPEAT AFTER ME: We will not fall for Adam Trautman!
Just because Trautman found the end zone in Week 8 does NOT mean that he’s a safe play moving forward. Not only has Trautman laid 5 goose eggs through the first 8 weeks, but he’s only seen a combined total of 10 targets all season. TEN. And four of those came from last week.
Oof.
I hope Trautman’s family was able to attend the game in Week 8. It might be his only stellar performance all season.
Our MVP Picks
Q: I think I’ve seen enough. If you had to pick today, who is your 2024 NFL MVP?
Jag: Baker Mayfield is playing every bit as well as his 2020 Progressive Insurance commercials would make you believe. This is the guy from OU who planted a flag on Ohio State’s field. This is the guy who was a number one draft pick. “BuT jAg HiS wEaPoNs!” Guess what baby girl? He’s still doing this without them.
What makes one an MVP is a truck that pulls along an offense through the mud, like a Ford commercial, and Mayfield is at that level. We’re witnessing one man equipped with only Cade Otton and a pack of Zyn lead the NFL in passing touchdowns — and I find that to be more impressive than Lamar Jackson’s gaudy stats on a superior team.
Ian: Penei Sewell and I don't think it's particularly close.
Okay, fine: Lamar Jackson. The reigning winner deserves another for putting together an encore campaign that has been a rare superior sequel. Not only is Jackson still the league's most electric QB — and maybe just player — as a runner, but he's also averaging a league-high 9.95 adjusted yards per attempt.
But Lamar's own pristine performance aside: His ability to elevate this suddenly one-sided roster has been nothing short of remarkable. The Ravens allowed the NFL's fewest points from 2018 to 2023, but in 2024? We're suddenly dealing with the league's 26th-ranked scoring defense. And yet, the Ravens are still (relatively) sitting pretty at 5-3 with another AFC North crown still firmly within reach.
LaMV3. Something like that? But yeah: Lamar. Kings stay kings.
Cooter: This question is technically a thought experiment, because the NFL MVP is exactly like Schrödinger's Cat. Everyone is hypothetically considered to be the next MVP and absolutely not the next MVP, simultaneously.
It’s why we can’t ever seem to agree!
The only way to know who the MVP will be is to open the box and we can‘t do that until February.
So, while my brain says Jagger and Ian are right, my heart screams fiery sonnets for Jared Goff. Why? I want to manifest a Lions Super Bowl. But more than anything: a lion is a cat.
Sorting Out the Bills Pass Catchers
Q: Khalil Shakir seems to catch every single ball thrown his way. YLTSI.
But how should we manage our expectations for the Bills’ pass catchers with the addition of Amari Cooper? What can we expect from Shakir and Cooper moving forward?
Jag: This is a usage question. If you’re building a WR room like a basketball team, Amari Cooper just became this team's shooting guard. This means that Shakir will still have his role as a dude who can consistently hit 2-pointers and lay-ups. Will this lead to less volume? Maybe, but when you have an elite QB like Josh Allen, this allows for higher efficiency. Shakir should be a floor play WR2-3 going forward.
Ian: You aren't kidding! The man has hauled in 36 of 38 targets (94.7%) this season. The RB-esque 3.6-yard average target depth has helped matters, but regardless this is historical stuff: That catch rate is currently the highest mark since targets began being tracked back in 1992 by any WR with at least 35 targets.
Of course, the presence of Cooper and bully Keon Coleman do limit the ceiling here, but that doesn't mean Shakir can't continue producing something close to WR3-caliber numbers. Josh Allen has thrown for 323 and 283 yards with four combined TDs in two weeks since Cooper joined the squad; that's more than enough production for multiple WRs to eat in fantasy land.