Fantasy Football Expert Roundtable: Sleeper WRs, Bad Shrimp, and More
In this week’s roundtable, we bring in Lawrence Jackson (aka @LordDontLose) of NBC Sports, and Jeff Bell (aka @4WhomJBellTolls) of Footballguys.
Let’s get into it:
Q: The WR landscape feels desolate, depleted, and quite frankly, I’m f*cking discouraged.
While we’re waiting for players to return from injury and fill our lineups again…
Are there any WRs with lesser name value that we can try to target to stay afloat? Anyone that might be the next Cedric Tillman? Anyone?
Asking for a friend. A desperate friend…
Jeff Bell: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine only catches touchdowns, which are helpful no matter the league. He has scored in four straight games and locked down the WR2 job opposite Calvin Ridley in Tennessee, playing 97% of the snaps in Week 9. Westbrook-Ikhine is a volatile player, but his red zone prowess is evident.
Kendrick Bourne was WR29 through Week 8 in 2023 and WR12 in Weeks 6 to 8 before a season-ending injury. Drake Maye has passed for a 68% completion and 242 yards per game in his three complete games, a yardage total good for 7th in the league. Bourne was quiet in his early return but caught four passes for 41 yards with a 78% snap share. The Patriots cycled receivers but have settled on Bourne and Kayshon Boutte outside, with DeMario Douglas in the slot.
Noah Brown caught the Commanders’ game-winning Hail Mary against Chicago in Week 8. He followed that up with a 5-60 line in Week 9 while leading the team in targets. He has settled into the WR2 role in an exciting Jayden Daniels offense. The Commanders are playing five receivers heavily, which cuts into Brown’s ceiling, but Daniels makes a big game possible any week.
Lawrence: Well obviously my answer depends on whoever the desperate friend is! I mean how desperate are we talking? Sterling Shepard is the Bucs’ “leading wide receiver” (now that Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are gone). He won’t be Cedric Tillman, so to speak, but Baker Mayfield is still playing at a top QB level and Shepard had 5 targets (leading all Bucs’ receivers) and caught 4 of them for 48 yards in Week 9 against the Chiefs. They even gave him two carries that he turned into 21 yards! Remember, you said desperate…
Q: One time when I was a little girl, I ate a bad shrimp. It made me soooo sick that 30 years later I still won’t eat any. And now, the New Orleans Saints are my metaphorical shrimp. Because after seven straight losses, anytime I hear a “WHODAT” chant, my tummy hurts real bad and I wanna throw up.
So give it to me straight, guys:
Is there any hope left for Saints fans now that Dennis Allen has been fired?
Or should I just give up on the Saints altogether for the next 30 years?
Jeff Bell: Deion Sanders has more career interception return yards (240) against the Saints than any other team. His son Shedeur grew up outside of Dallas and started his college career at Jackson St., three hours north of New Orleans. Shedeur Sanders is viewed as the top quarterback in the draft class, and there is reason for optimism that Sanders would be comfortable if he were a Saint.
The salary cap is a problem. The team stands at $77 million over the 2025 projected cap. For context, three teams are over the projected cap. The other two are the Browns ($44 million over, primarily due to “the quarterback who cannot be named”) and the Seahawks, $1 million over.
It could be worse. The Saints wanted that quarterback that Cleveland does not want anymore.
Lawrence: You had Drew Brees, I think you can manage another 30 years, champ.
Q: PHEW! WE ARE NINE WEEKS DEEP! Regardless of fantasy records, there’s always something we can take away from our good (or really really bad) experiences.
What lessons, if any, are you taking with you into next year’s draft?
Have we learned anything at all?
Jeff Bell: Bellcow backfields are back. Committees were the rage, but teams have realized that splitting a backfield, particularly with diverse skill sets, can serve as a dead giveaway to defenses. The rules also favor an offensive team building the most diverse skill position groups possible, not substituting, and forcing defenses into a difficult position. This is a key behind two tight end sets. Tight ends, especially athletic ones capable of lining up as outside receivers, can serve to create a power formation against lighter defensive sets or spread heavier sets out.
In my weekly Monday article on Footballguys, I detail every backfield. Last year, I tracked about 10 backfields that utilized a bellcow back. This year, the number is in the low 20s. In a standard 12-person fantasy league, 24 backs must start weekly. If there are 10 Bellcow backs, most of the league will have one as their “RB1.” A couple may have two of these backs, and at least two will not have an “RB1”; instead, they will rely on depth and potentially play matchups. Those teams can look to offset their weakness at running back with a “ZeroRB” approach, building advantages elsewhere on their roster.
If we bump that number into the low 20s, now most of the league is capable of starting two of these high-volume options. Instead of a couple having two, some teams may now have three or even four, considering ADP. This landscape makes “ZeroRB” builds more difficult. Not only do fantasy managers have fewer split backfields to create a pool to utilize in favorable matchups, but they are also playing against two or more top running backs weekly.
Running backs have always been king in fantasy football. They are reasserting their value in 2024.
Lawrence: I haven’t really learned anything new, but I do see that trading in fantasy football seems like it’s at an all-time low. NOBODY wants to do deals unless they’re getting two Kings ransoms for three pawns. Most times people are overvaluing players they don’t even want anymore LOL. Even funnier, once you make an offer for a certain mid-level player, all of a sudden your potential trade partner acts like that player is Michael Jordan. So I’ll say this, make sure you really get the guys you want in your draft.
Q: Aside from his impending BYE in Week 14, can Derrick Henry… ever be stopped?
Jeff Bell: Derrick Henry rushed for 12,124 yards in four years of high school football. He averaged 8.7 yards per rush and scored 153 rushing touchdowns. But his senior year is next level. In 13 games, he rushed 462 times for 4,261 yards, and 55 touchdowns. NFL players play 17 games. In NFL history there have been five quarterback seasons above 462 pass completions and Peyton Manning holds the single season record with 55 touchdown passes. Imagine being a 16 year old worried about who you are going to ask to homecoming and new to driving a car. And you have to tackle an 18 year old Derrick Henry in front of thousands of fans.
No. None of us can stop Henry. And to fantasy players benefit, the Ravens are just 6-3 and look locked in for meaningful games through the fantasy playoffs. Like that 16 year old, all we can do is enjoy the ride.
Lawrence: Only thing or person that can stop the Derrick Henry is whenever someone else on the Ravens’ offense touches the football. So for those plays, his opponents get a breather. Then you realize those “someone elses” are Lamar Jackson or Zay Flowers and that sucks.