It’s “My Guys” season, and one of the biggest challenges to landing one of your “My Guys” is understanding current ADP, its trends and how to navigate them to assure you can draft who you want while keeping your draft from unraveling by unnecessarily reaching for a player.

Now, your “My Guys” are likely not the same as my “My Guys,” and our “My Guys” are probably not the same as their “My Guys,” but let’s discuss some worthy players within the top six tiers of my Half PPR Rankings who are most misaligned with ADP.

But first, in the wise words of the noble Ian Hartitz — "don’t hate the player, hate the ADP.”

Tiers 1 & 2

No surprises here. Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb lead the way in Tier 1 while a trio of wide receivers in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson round out Tier 2 along with a pair of running backs in Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall.

Despite the season-ending knee injury to J.J. McCarthy, Jefferson remains entrenched within Tier 2 as the WR5. ADP has him going off the board as the WR4 ahead of St. Brown, but I’m against consensus on that one.

Sam Darnold was already projected to be the Vikings' Week 1 starting quarterback under the assumption he would eventually be benched for the rookie at some point during the season. Since that scenario is no longer a possibility, Chase is now more comfortably entrenched above Jefferson, a result of a much more stable (and better) quarterback throwing him the ball.

Draft any eight of these players however you wish. They are among the safest options with steady floors and exceptional upside — in any given week they'll be the foundation of your fantasy football team.

Tiers 3 & 4

These tiers include 20 WRs, 16 RBs and four TEs, but outside of one outlier, ADP and I are most misaligned on the WRs.

For starters, Derrick Henry (RB4) is a certified “My Guy” this season. The Ravens saw the second-most red zone rushing attempts in 2023 with 111, and sixth-most in 2022. In those years, no RB saw half of the snaps, but Henry was chosen to be the Ravens bell cow and is projected to see a 72.4% opportunity share. I prefer Henry over the ADP-favored Jahmyr Gibbs (RB5), Jonathan Taylor (RB6), Saquon Barkley (RB7) and Isiah Pacheco (RB8).

While I am a fan of the player and talent, there are currently four WRs going after Drake London (WR14) in drafts who I feel shouldn’t be — Davante Adams (WR10), Deebo Samuel (WR11), Chris Olave (WR12) and Mike Evans (WR13).

Because these players share a tier, it is widely acceptable to assume they’re interchangeable as their range of outcomes aligns with each other, but I feel that Kirk Cousins (QB17) and more proper usage of Bijan Robinson (RB2) will be detrimental to London’s upside. While I feel similarly about Derek Carr (QB25) and Olave, I believe Carr will see and use more designed passing opportunities from new OC Klint Kubiak to accommodate Alvin Kamara’s (RB17) skill set, which would provide Olave with increased opportunity. Rashid Shaheed (WR52) is also dealing with his second lower-body injury of the offseason, and while it may not be anything serious, it's worth noting when fine-combing the ranks.

The upside of Adams, Samuel, and Evans has been on display for years, and each player should have another solid season thanks to their team’s play-calling styles. Having QBs Gardner Minshew (QB33) and Aidan O’Connell (QB34) is not worth promoting, but the Raiders offense funnels through Adams, who has seen no fewer than 27% of the Raiders targets per route run (TPRR) while participating in no fewer than 95% of the team’s offensive snaps since joining the team in 2022. Samuel, Olave and Evans were also highlighted in my draft targets for touchdown-only leagues article.

Jaylen Waddle (WR18), Malik Nabers (WR22) and Nico Collins (WR23) are three WRs I do like skill-wise, and each has incredible upside in scoring fantasy points, but I just don’t think I can elevate them as much as everyone else. D.J. Moore (WR15) is going after all three but shouldn’t be. I recently highlighted Moore in my PPR rankings update, referencing how his four-year $110M contract extension and history of hogging his team’s target share are notable indicators that the Bears are immediately identifying him as Caleb Williams’ (QB14) franchise WR1. That must count for something.

Amari Cooper (WR20) and Rashee Rice (WR26) round out these tiers, and like Moore are deserving of more love. While they have not been efficient, the Browns are still churning out plays at a wild rate, leading the league with 69.72 per game in 2023 and 65.12 in 2022 — sixth-most in the league. Despite missing a pair of games last season and seeing a slightly lower snap and target share, Cooper improved on his already-favorable 2022 numbers, seeing increased marks in his TPRR, yards per route run (YPRR) and average depth of target (ADOT) in 2023. In his rookie campaign, Rice was offered a 56% opportunity in routes and 18% opportunity in targets on those routes. While the numbers appear low individually, they indicate that Rice saw a target on 26% of his routes — a very optimistic indicator of what the future may hold. There are other mouths to feed in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense but with Hollywood Brown’s (WR51) recent shoulder injury likely sidelining him through the first two games of the season, and 2024’s 28th overall pick Xavier Worthy (WR40) familiarizing himself with the offense, Rice’s stock should naturally blossom.

Tiers 5 & 6

With 23 RBs, 20 WRs and many more TEs (13 to be exact), the fifth and sixth tiers are the last two tiers that aren’t bloated with players. They are often littered with players with league-winning upside who aren’t traditionally considered league winners. There are fewer WRs that ADP and I disagree on, but at the cost of disagreeing on more RBs.

A pair of Tier 5 WRs who many would argue belong a tier above are Stefon Diggs (WR30) and Zay Flowers (WR33). Diggs is the second Texans WR mentioned here that I’m lower on than most, but it doesn’t have anything to do with how awesome C.J. Stroud (QB6) is. Ultimately, I’m not sure Diggs has enough left in the tank to consistently put up WR2 numbers, and while there is supporting evidence indicating that he has his eyes on being a team captain, I think it would primarily be Diggs’ past experiences earning him the accolade instead of what he presently offers the Texans. ADP is torn between Diggs and Tank Dell (WR25), but I think the latter is the more proper league-winning choice this season.

Like Waddle, Nabers and Collins in Tier 3, Zay Flowers (WR33) is someone I’ve fallen for, but not as hard as consensus. History books will soon reference the Ravens 2024 season as “The Season of King Henry,” indicative of Henry’s effect on all pass catchers not named Mark Andrews (TE5). Ultimately, I believe the Ravens will want to maintain a similar game pace as their previous two seasons (62 to 63 plays per game) while improving their time of possession. A run-heavy approach through Henry could do just that.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR38) rounds out WRs within this tier I am currently much higher on that consensus. Hopkins’ knee injury has expectedly tempered how the public views him, but the sheer amount of younger, faster and healthier players that Hopkins shares a tier with also prevents him from seeing much movement. Eventually, I expect Hopkins to suit up in the Week 1 road game against the Colts. While the Titans signing Calvin Ridley (WR35) and Tyler Boyd (WR76) earlier this year doesn’t help Hopkins’ valuation, I’m high on the Titans' entire offense and anticipate a big year out of Will Levis (QB24).

Two Tier 6 RBs that ADP has split across three rounds that I feel are much closer in valuation are Jaylen Warren (RB29) and Austin Ekeler (RB33). Warren is currently going off draft boards as the RB23, but I prefer the likes of Raheem Mostert (RB23), Zamir White (RB24), Javonte Williams (RB25), D’Andre Swift (RB26), Devin Singletary (RB27) and Tony Pollard (RB28) over him. While Warren excelled in yards after contact (4.8) and made defenders miss on 52% of his attempts last season, I can’t expect him to see at least a third of the work on an offense called by new OC Arthur Smith, especially when Cordarrelle Patterson (RB79) followed Smith over from Atlanta.

Austin Ekeler (RB33) is being drafted outside the top 40 RBs but comfortably carries top-36 upside. New Cardinals HC Kliff Kingsbury will look to revitalize a Commanders offense that saw big declines in plays per game (-4.47) and time of possession (-3.73) between 2022 and 2023. While Kingsbury traditionally relied on two RBs in his four seasons as the Cardinals HC, he’s never had two that were as “good on paper” as Ekeler and Brian Robinson (RB31). James Conner (RB21) most recently finished as the RB18 in 2023 and RB20 in 2022 under Kingsbury, so Robinson’s current ADP ranking of RB30 (after a RB22 finish in 2023) indicates that he will see increased competition. While the market seems to have adjusted Robinson’s valuation, it hasn’t adjusted that of Ekeler’s, who shared opening drive starter snaps with Robinson in their first preseason game against the Jets.

Looking for more players to fill out your “My Guys” list? Find my complete rankings for free here! If your league doesn’t award 0.5 points for a reception, no problem! There are 18 preloaded scoring templates for you to use, and if none of those work (sicko), FantasyLife+ subscribers can generate a custom cheat sheet to reflect your league’s scoring.

Lastly, if you’re here to fight about something I said, I’ll totally hear you out, but only if you bring the heat in the Fantasy Life Discord.