Fantasy Football Hot Takes for 2024: Bold Prediction on the Rams WR1?
You know you're close to real football when fantasy football hot takes season rolls around! It's one of the best times of the year because everyone loves their fantasy teams, no one is really hurt yet and it's all rainbows and butterflies! So, when we revisit these we will see just how close I really was.
Below are my bold predictions for the 2024 season. Some are spicy and others might be right in line with what you're thinking. Either way, make sure to enjoy and let me know some of your bold predictions too!
Age absolutely doesn't matter with Derrick Henry and he finishes as a top-5 fantasy running back
We all know about the dreaded age cliff in fantasy football and yes, we should be cautious with some players, BUT Derrick Henry is not one of them.
Henry is one of my most drafted players this season because I think he is going to absolutely feast in this Ravens offense. To start, let's just look at what he's walking into in Baltimore.
First of all, a way better offensive line. The Titans had the worst offensive line in 2023 according to PFF — they finished last in pass-blocking efficiency and also gave up the most sacks in the NFL (49). Henry led the league in rushing touchdowns in 2019 (16) and 2020 (17), and he also still put up good fantasy performances despite the offensive line play. Now, Henry will play with an offensive line that will help him be even more productive.
This is a team that had Gus Edwards score 13 touchdowns last season! Heading into the 2024 season, Fantasy Life has Henry projected for 247 rush attempts, 1,062 yards and 10 total touchdowns.
The other parts of Henry's game that might scare some fantasy drafters are his lack of receiving work and the presence of Lamar Jackson.
Dual-threat quarterbacks take rushing opportunities away from their running backs and also can scramble (which we love for fantasy) instead of looking for the check down. That said, we should not expect Jackson to eat too much into Henry's touchdown production.
Keep that same energy for the receiving work! Yes, Justice Hill is looking like the RB2 in this offense and he will be getting third-down and two-minute drill work, but that's OK! Overall, Henry should not be faded because of his age. He is in a new and much better environment and will only get better because of it.
Cooper Kupp finishes ahead of Puka Nacua, despite being drafted 30 picks apart
I KNOW PEOPLE WILL NOT LIKE THIS ONE, BUT IT'S BOLD PREDICTIONS SZN.
The bottom line is that Cooper Kupp is coming off an injury-riddled season, but he is still too good to be going 30 picks after Puka Nacua, in fantasy football ADP, especially with the upside he offers. His 2023 numbers do not reflect the player he will be in 2024.
Last season, Nacua and Kupp played 12 full games together — here's how usage was split up:
- Nacua: 66 receptions, 1,055 yards, four touchdowns on 100 targets
- Kupp: 63 receptions, 753 yards, five touchdowns on 99 targets
Kupp also held down a 27% target share in those games as well.
While we never want to overreact to injuries during preseason and training camp, Nacua has been banged up with a knee injury. The team said that it is "not considered serious,” but still it is something to consider.
Nacua reached incredible heights in 2023 when he captured both the NFL rookie receiving yards and receptions records with 105 total receptions, 1,486 receiving yards (4th in the NFL), and 6 touchdowns.
But we now have a healthy Kupp entering the scene as well, and I don't think the two should be as far apart in drafts as they are. Fantasy Life projections have Nacua projected for 263 PPR points and Kupp for 224 PPR points. This could be more of a 1A/1B situation with a healthy Kupp in 2024.
Look, this bold prediction is definitely spicy! I'm just more in on Kupp at his current price than paying for Nacua at the end of the first round.
A late-round rookie running back will be a league-winner
Alright before we break this one down let's get the definition of league-winner out of the way. For me, a league-winner is a player who significantly outperforms his fantasy football ADP and totally changes the dynamic of your team — someone who becomes a weekly starter that you didn't envision before (or maybe you did because you know your stuff).
There weren't a ton of flashy running backs in this year's NFL Draft, but that doesn't mean that some of these rookies won't make a difference in fantasy. As we all know, it only takes one of these guys to hit for your team to completely dominate.
It's not a cop-out, but let's go through two-ish running backs I continue to draft because of their potential to be league winners.
The first one might be the most obvious among the fantasy football community, but in more casual leagues could be someone who is overlooked and that's Panthers running back Jonathon Brooks. It's easy to see why some would pass on him, Brooks had surgery in November to repair a torn ACL and reports are saying that he won't be ready to play until Week 3 or Week 4 this season.
But if you can be patient, Brooks may be a rookie that pays off. Yes, the Panthers are not a super sexy landing spot for him, but if we focus on the draft capital (trading up to draft Brooks in the second round) then we can tell ourselves that they have big plans for him.
Dwain McFarland noted that running backs who have scored in the same range as Brooks in the Rookie Super Model have enjoyed a high success rate in their first two seasons.
- Top-12 Finishes: 48%
- Top-24 Finishes: 71%
- Top-36 Finishes: 90%
SHOUT OUT TO THE DATA! Again, when drafting Brooks make sure to have solid running backs around him because the team will want to ease him in, but after that hopefully, we can enjoy the ride.
The other running back with potential league-winning upside is Jaylen Wright of the Miami Dolphins. Again, some drafters will look at what De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert did last season and ask "Why would I want the third-best running back on this team?" which is fair, but I promise there's a reason.
We never want injuries to happen, but both Achane and Mostert missed time last season and if one of them were to go down, it would open the door to an incredible opportunity for Wright. By no means does this mean that I believe Wright will straight up take over one of their roles, because last season that duo was just so damn good. But, he does have that late-round upside we like to look for.
Oh yeah, and he's FAST (like Miami would have it any other way).
Bonus:
Please, like I was going to keep this list to just two?!
I am so glad that we can still talk about Tyrone Tracy today. The Giants running back had an injury scare, but is now no longer on the injury report.
The depth chart is thin behind Devin Singletary (who will be the workhouse RB) and this could be another situation where a rookie could come into a big workload if an injury occurs.
This Giants offense is working against Tracy a bit. Singletary got a big contract and also was reunited with Brian Daboll, who was his offensive coordinator in Buffalo. Tracy was also drafted in the fifth round, which doesn't produce many elite fantasy finishes.
Still, if Singletary went down then Tracy would be in line for a big workload. Just saying!
