Every offseason, I spend an inordinate amount of time researching and tweaking my process, focusing on the data points that best predict future success. This process also includes knowing which data to ignore or not overfactor.

The journey begins with a 30,000-foot overview of what I got right and wrong in the previous season. However, the key to this activity is thinking about the why. Is there something actionable we can use to improve or questions we should further investigate in the offseason?

We want a process that helps us get things right more often than not over time—always knowing that variance and luck (which we must also leverage and embrace) play a massive role in any one game, week, or season.

Today, we will focus on what I got right based on the players I touted and drafted the most in 2024. Next week, we will break down what I got wrong.

Looking to see who Kendall Valenzuela nailed for the 2024 season, too? Click here to read her biggest hits for the season!

Jayden Daniels | QB | Commanders

Heading into last season, 21 quarterbacks had recorded 100 or more rushing attempts while passing for fewer than 3,500 yards since 2011. That group averaged 20.3 fantasy points per game with an average finish of QB8.

Those numbers and Daniels' cost (Round 8 or later) were the reasons for my bullish stance on him as the No. 1 quarterback option in 2024. The rookie averaged 23.3 points in 15 healthy contests, making him a smash success as a fantasy draft pick in Round 8 or later.

Lesson for 2025: We should continue to lean into dual-threat quarterbacks—especially when the average draft position (ADP) already accounts for their unknown as a passer. Anthony Richardson is the cautionary tale. He offered a similar profile to Daniels but with even more doubts as a passer and a higher ADP.

De'Von Achane | RB | Dolphins

My logic for drafting Achane was simple. First, the assumption by many that his role wouldn't expand was flawed based on similar archetype backs throughout history (e.g., Austin Ekeler). Second, his big-play upside in a high-quality offense offered insulation from those concerns.

Interestingly, the second part of that statement fell flat—the Dolphins' offense floundered this season. While Achane maintained a respectable 4.5 yards per carry, it was down from 7.8 as a rookie. Still, volume is king, and Achane improved across the board.

  • Snaps: 62% (+12 percentage points)
  • Attempts: 48% (+13)
  • Route participation: 61% (+17)
  • Targets: 15% (+3)
  • Attempts inside the five-yard line: 70% (+36)
  • Two-minute offense: 71% (+28)
  • Utilization Score: 8.3 (+2.0)
  • Fantasy points: 17.6 (+1)

Lesson for 2025: We shouldn't overestimate our ability to predict specific roles for players—especially talented ones. Size also pushed many experts and drafters away from Achane (188 lbs) and James Cook (190 lbs), thinking it would keep them from getting carries inside the five-yard line. They ranked 17th and 15th with 0.8 and 0.9 per game, respectively, which helped fuel RB6 and RB11 finishes.

It will be interesting to see if the market twists itself in knots with another back that fits this archetype in Bucky Irving next season.

Bucky Irving | RB | Buccaneers

Irving is a very interesting name because much of my love for him came down to things that are hard to quantify in historical data.

  1. He looked terrific in the preseason, flashing a much more electric skillset than Rachaad White's.
  2. He was the clear-cut No. 2 behind White in preseason action.
  3. The coaching staff openly noted the areas White needed to improve, and all those areas matched Irving's game better.

The Round 4 NFL Draft pick smashed his late-round ADP, delivering an RB20 finish with 14.1 points per game. Over the last four games of the season, he assisted fantasy managers in hoisting their fantasy championship trophies, taking control of the Buccaneers backfield.

 

Lesson for 2025: This one is tough because preseason stars don't have high hit rates in a vacuum. The additional context is key, but even that requires caution—humans have a propensity for connecting dots that aren't there. In other runouts of this scenario, we could argue that is what I did based on the reasons listed above. Still, even the data-centric process I use has hits and misses, and there is value in finding players like White *if* the price is right.

Malik Nabers | WR | Giants

The Rookie Super Model loved Nabers, but we can keep things even more straightforward than that by focusing on wide receivers drafted in the top six picks of the NFL Draft. Since 2011, ten rookies have gone inside the top six, and those who played at least 12 games averaged 14.5 points per game.

NFL teams are good at evaluating the wide receiver position when it comes to the elite draft capital options. Nabers didn't disappoint, ranking among the league leaders in many of the most predictive data points for the position.

  • Utilization Score: 9.0 (2nd)
  • Targets: 35% (1st)
  • Air yards: 46% (3rd)

Marvin Harrison offered a similar profile to Nabers, which is a cautionary tale. However, their fantasy draft prices were vastly different. Harrison was a second-round pick in most formats, creating a challenging path for upside. Nabers was a round-six selection on ESPN (64) and Yahoo (69).

Lesson for 2025: High-end NFL Draft picks at the wide receiver position continue to make profitable targets in fantasy. However, there are limitations to how high we should push them in fantasy drafts. Roughly 40% have scored enough points to pay off a Round 2 fantasy selection since 2011.

Rashee Rice | WR | Chiefs

It was a brutal runout for my most rostered player of the season. However, I cried out to my wife and children that the process was right as they packed up the car and drove away forever.

Technically, Rice wasn't a victory because he didn't help your team win after suffering an unlucky season-ending knee injury via Patrick Mahomes as they pursued a defender on a turnover. Still, I wanted to include Rice because there is a lesson.

Rice flashed high-end potential once in a full-time role as a rookie, delivering 16.4 points per contest with a 7.4 Utilization Score from Week 14 to the Super Bowl. Yet, legal concerns and offseason additions drove his ADP into bargain territory with fantasy managers seeking to avoid uncertainty. However, as his legal situation became more favorable, his ADP didn't adjust enough, creating value.

Rice profiled similarly to Nico Collins as an ascending young target earner at a massive discount due to fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). Their ADP deltas were astronomical in late August.

  • ESPN: Collins (38) vs. Rice (98)
  • Sleeper: Collins (28) vs. Rice (84)
  • Yahoo: Collins (35) vs. Rice (97)

These adjusted more dramatically on high-stakes sites like Realtime Sports and best-ball platforms like Underdog and DraftKings, but Rice still offered a round or two of value versus similar options.

In Year 2, Rice averaged 21.6 fantasy points with an 8.5 Utilization Score and was well on his way to being one of the top-value picks before the injury.

Lesson for 2025: We should seek to attack ADPs aggressively when the market is slow to react based on new information. Additionally, uncertainty is our friend when it comes to young ascending talents like Rice. We can plan around misses in the middle rounds so that it doesn't sink our team if it goes wrong. The upside was there; Rice would have been a Round 1 pick after the first three games.

Trey McBride | TE | Cardinals

McBride flashed immense target-earning prowess after taking over a full-time role in Week 8 in 2023. Over the remainder of that season, he garnered a 29% target share and posted a 9.1 Utilization Score.

Those numbers were better than Sam LaPorta, and McBride was priced one to two rounds cheaper, making him my primary target for the position. Despite the arrival of Marvin Harrison, which scared some drafters away, McBride remained the top target earner for the Cardinals in 2024 and was the TE1 with 15.6 points per game.

 

Lesson for 2025: Ascending young target earners should be targeted at a premium—they have a strong historical track record. New target competition is always a factor, but Sam LaPorta already had more proven target competition on his roster. Additionally, weighting our portfolio toward the cheaper option is preferable when we have two similar assets (e.g., McBride and LaPorta).

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