I need to push back on my brethren.

You’ve probably heard the sentiment of time flying by to get us to Week 7. Admittedly, I agree with this idea. Drafting our teams in August feels like a lifetime ago. But think about how much has happened since then. 

Actually, forget that, think about what happened this week! 

And, here’s the kicker: We still have over two months of action ahead of us. So, before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s dive into the current fantasy landscape. Our Discord community has been rife with excellent strategy questions to optimize their rosters. To help, I took a crack at a few and expanded on some processes and tools that can help you re-evaluate your rosters.

Jonathon Brooks & Chuba Hubbard Value

With (Jonathon) Brooks returning to practice, but with the uncertainty on his ROS role, is now the perfect time to trade FOR Hubbard? Would you move Diontae or Higgins for him if you need an RB2 in PPR? Thx — Rob Monacelli

My knee-jerk reaction was no.

Why try to acquire a guy who will be a part of a committee? Chuba Hubbard’s fantasy outlook would look even worse if the Panthers implode (again). However, his usage isn’t something I’d eagerly dump off my roster.

Using our Utilization Comparison tool, we can see Hubbard’s opportunities line up with the top rushers in the league. He’s fifth in total targets amongst all RBs (23). Carolina’s RB1 sits ahead of Kyren Williams (13.7%) and Breece Hall (9.6%) in forced missed tackle rate (14%). Unsurprisingly, history tells us we should hold on to players commanding this much volume.

Players with a Utilization Score of 8.0 have finished as an RB1 80% of the time, based on the last four seasons of data. Otherwise, they’ve been a high-end RB2 (15.7 PPR PPG). Again, I wouldn’t want to give up anyone hitting these marks. But we know Hubbard’s situation is changing. It might be a few weeks, but Jonathon Brooks will be on the field soon. So, let’s find some reasonable comps.

  • Zack Moss (UR Score: 6.9)
  • Rachaad White (6.8)
  • Javonte Williams (6.5)

Each RB has a different playing style, and their offensive situations are different. But they all have younger, faster counterparts eating into their workloads. Rachaad White and Javonte Williams have two! Hubbard’s rushing efficiency should secure him a fantasy-viable workload even with Brooks in the lineup. And RBs in his situation have still been productive.

  • Mid-Range RB2: 17.0% (hit rate)
  • Low-End RB2: 28.0%
  • High-End RB3: 22.0%

So, I wouldn’t try to trade for him now. Let’s give it a couple of weeks for more positive news on Brooks. The uncertainty will drive his cost down, allowing for a more advantageous trade.

David Njoku Outlook Post-Cooper Trade

Do you view David Njoku as the biggest beneficiary for the Amari Cooper trade despite how horrible Deshaun Watson looks? — HammyTakes

The “biggest” beneficiary? No.

A big beneficiary? Yes. One reason we can’t vault him into the overall TE1 discussion is how Cleveland has deployed him so far this season.

The first few columns of David Njoku’s utilization game log look great from a usage standpoint. My concern is the last two. His 6.0% air yard share on the season ranks behind Ian Thomas (8.0%) and Grant Calcaterra (7.0%). And I’d take Nojku’s spike to 13.0% more seriously if his aDOT didn’t fall to 2.4 yards. Meanwhile, by the numbers, it looks like Amari Cooper was playing playing a different sport.

  • Air Yard Share: 47.0%
  • aDOT: 12.0

Through six weeks, Cooper had the most targets on passes in the intermediate and deep parts of the field. Their catchability is something of a debate, but earning more downfield looks (not just raw attempts) would make Njoku the biggest benefactor. Deshaun Watson was already looking Njoku’s way. In his first week back, he led the team in target share. We’d need to see an evolution in his routes to boost him higher.

Njoku sits in the low-end TE1 ranks for Week 7, which makes sense. Coincidentally, every TE ahead of him (from Travis Kelce to Evan Engram) has a greater air-yard share. The lowest is 17.0% (Engram). So, until we see deeper routes from Njoku, he’s more along for the ride than in the driver’s seat after Cooper’s departure.

Sell or Hold Chase Brown?

How do you feel about Chase Brown? Is he a hold or a sell high? I’m looking to get a Brian Robinson Jr. for him. Wondering which back you’d prefer ROS — hants03

I’m a Bengals fan, so I love Chase Brown. He’s been the complement to Zack Moss I (and, more importantly, the Bengals) wanted. However, I’m not ready to put him on Brian Robinson Jr.’s level just yet.

I condensed Brown’s utilization report to the last two weeks, since we’ve seen more of the sophomore RB recently. Clearly, he’s been the preferred option over Moss, as Brown has led Cincinnati in carries in two consecutive weeks. To be fair, he’s no Joe Burrow in the open field. Regardless, let’s keep in mind Moss came into the week nursing an ankle injury. Plus, unfortunately, Brown’s usage has barely aligned with Robinson’s. 

  • Week 1: 7.6 (UR Score)
  • Week 2: 7.2
  • Week 3: 6.7
  • Week 4: 8.7
  • Week 5: 3.6 (on injury report)

Prior to missing multiple practices with a knee issue, Robinson had top-10 marks in total carries and totes from inside the 10-yard line. Coupled with his 10.4% target share, his RB1 status wasn’t in question. In either case, his usage has a higher range of outcomes than Brown’s.

  • Brown: 12.0% (chance of finishing as an RB2), 28.0% (RB3)
  • Robinson: 25.0%, 32.0%

Assuming health, Robinson’s higher-end tails give him the edge in fantasy. Unless we see a greater shift away from Moss, trading for the Commanders’ RB1 will take a bit more than the Bengals’ RB1A.