Every week, NFL players give us answers to some questions while generating new ones seemingly after every play. In some ways, what they do feels isolated. It is as if what one guy does on one team can't be replicated or compared to someone else. But we call the NFL a "copycat league," so often we can find analogies across the board. Well, at least I'll try.

With another set of questions from our community discord, let's dive into some of the player-specific queries and see if I can tease out some processes we can use to similar situations moving forward.

Week 6 Fantasy Football Mailbag

Would you pick up Pitts? My only TE is Kincaid right now. Pitts got dropped prior to the TNF game, and I'm debating grabbing him — YeetCannon

The allure of an underperforming player suddenly becoming fantasy-relevant is almost intoxicating. For folks with Kyle Pitts on their roster, Week 5’s TNF was like an oasis in the desert. But this question extends past Atlanta’s TE. Think about the other early-round options we drafted, who are headlining “Fantasy Busts” columns right now.

  • Mark Andrews
  • Dalton Kincaid
  • De’Von Achane
  • Breece Hall

If any of these guys have solid outings, we’ll insist they’re back to their old ways. The last five weeks are the outlier and not one performance. However, let’s use Pitts’ Week 5 as an example to see how we can evaluate a useful fantasy result.

  • Targets: 8
  • Yards: 88
  • PPR points: 15.8

Pitts hit a season-high in, well, almost everything. His box score against the Bucs instantly stands out amongst the duds he’s put up over the month prior. However, it wasn’t a significant shift from how OC Zac Robinson deployed the athletic TE.

  • Route Rate: 80.0% (Weeks 1-4), 86.9%
  • Slot Rate: 29.8%, 36.2%
  • Targets per Route Run Rate: 15.0%, 15.1%
  • Air Yard Share: 14.5%, 11.3%

It’s not like there was a concerted effort to get Pitts the ball. His eight targets didn't even outpace Ray-Ray McCloud (8). Kirk Cousins didn’t look his way when they got inside the 10-yard line. Simply put, Pitts had a good day because Cousins had a great day.

Opportunity drives production for pass-catchers. And Pitts’s 14.8% target share in Week 5 sits in between Cole Kmet’s (15.2%) and Ja’Tavion Sanders’s (14.3%). Until we see a multi-week trend or massive change in usage, it’s hard to declare anyone is back after a month of data to review. 

If you’re low on RB depth, is [Rico] Dowdle a good depth piece? Is he stretching the gap from Zeke? — Mrshowtime252

Yes, and yes.

However, Dowdle isn’t the only backup RB to come out of the woodwork this season. Zach Charbonnet kicked things off in Week 2 with Kenneth Walker out. Tyler Allgeier has put Bijan Robinson's managers on tilt. Plus, we watched Tyrone Tracy weave through Seahawk defenders like they were in slow motion. So, at least for me, I try to think about depth pieces as rushers that meet a few thresholds.

  • They have standalone value (i.e., they have a minor role each week)
  • They are a part of the rushing and passing game
  • They’d lead the backfield should the starter miss time
  • They are on an efficient offense (I’ll sometimes soften this to a squad with a good QB)

Sure, this seems stringent. But let’s walk through an instance where going after any backup might net you a one-week flier versus a league winner.

Let’s go back to Week 1 and look at two different teams: the Texans and Seahawks. Seattle had their backfield touch count at 22 for Walker and 10 for Charbonnet (eight carries, three targets). Even at less than half the carries, Seattle was already signaling Charbonnet’s role in the offense. Meanwhile, we didn’t see Cam Akers until after Joe Mixon went down. Since then, the Texans’ backfield has devolved into a three-headed committee. Regardless, our aim should be to find rushers who can be RB1s on good teams.

So, in the case of Dowdle, let’s see if the same mental exercise works in his favor.

  • Rushing Share (Week 1): 33.0%
  • Route Rate: 28.0%
  • Target Share: 3.0%

On the one hand, Dowdle was one of four Dallas RBs to touch the ball against the Browns. He had the second-highest touch share. Good! But even if Ezekiel Elliott got injured back then, there was nothing to indicate the workload would condense around Dowdle. However, our Utilization Report tells us a different story after five weeks of game data.

Dowdle ascending to the majority of the carries is the “significant shift” I was talking about when reviewing Kyle Pitts’s Week 5 outing. With (some) usage in the passing game and goal-line work, Dowdle checks all of the boxes, making him a priority depth piece at worst. If Elliott’s workload continues to recede, we may be talking about Dowdle as an every-week RB2.

Josn Allen Fantasy Value ROS

12-teamer, 0.5 PPR, stacked at RB, WRs are good too, but my QB is ARich. Trade away Josh Jacobs for Josh Allen and Davante? Current RBs are Jacobs, Mason/CMC, Mixon, Hunt, Singeltary. Current WRs are Diontae, BTJ, Tyreek — cj81

I’ll cheat and use our trade analyzer tool to start the discussion on this one.

Well, yes, do that deal!

Although, there are some caveats to both players on the winning side, right?

For instance, we don’t know when Davante Adams will be back on the field. Or, even if he does, whether he’ll be wearing black and silver or green and white is anyone’s guess. The tool assumes Adams will be playing and generating points. There’s no “coach liked an Instagram post” knock-down algorithm in the analyzer. However, 2024 Josh Allen hasn’t been the same as 2023 Allen, either.

  • Week 1 (vs ARI): 31.2 (fantasy points)
  • Week 2 (at MIA): 9.8
  • Week 3 (vs JAX): 30.9
  • Week 4 (at BAL): 7.3
  • Week 5 (at HOU): 14.6

It’s fair to say Allen met his match going up against the Dolphins and Ravens. However, he’s now had back-to-back games with passing success rates under 50.0%. Without Khalil Shakir, Allen’s middle-of-the-field throw rate hit a season-low (30.8%). Consequently, Allen reverted to his 2021 days of taking volatile shots downfield. However, instead of having Stefon Diggs or Gabe Davis on the other end, the Bills are relying on Mack Hollins and Keon Coleman.

Shakir was back at practice this week, but his becoming the engine of Buffalo’s passing game is something of a concern. The Bills mimicking the Packers in terms of not having a true WR1 is fine until you need playmakers. And, looking at Allen’s upcoming schedule, he’ll need at least one.

  • Week 6: at Jets (fewest points allowed to QBs)
  • Week 7: vs Titans (6th-fewest)
  • Week 8: at Seahawks (12th-fewest)
  • Week 9: vs Dolphins (3rd-fewest)
  • Week 10: at Colts (3rd-most)
  • Week 11: vs Chiefs (average)

Four of his next six are against top-12 units. In addition, opposing teams have limited his rushing (4.0 fantasy points per game as a runner). Allen will always have name value because of his track record. He’ll put on his Superman cape and plow through defenders into the end zone anytime. However, without reliable pass-catchers, trading for him might not net the same return as it would’ve in years past.