I think I said this a few weeks ago, but mentally working through fantasy questions as a writer is so much easier than doing it live. Well, maybe I just need more reps. I think it’s my process for answering questions that makes this medium so much easier (at least for you to digest my thoughts). 

My initial response is usually me shooting from the hip. It’s maybe 60% emotional with whatever data I have floating around in my head. Sometimes, it makes sense. But then, as I’m talking, I’ll remember another piece of info or a tool I could reference to buttress my initial point. So, I’ll backtrack, add more numbers to sound smarter, and then forget where I started. Not here, though.

Each week, I’ll dive into a few of your questions without talking in circles. Plus, I can show off some of our tools in the process. Let’s dig into what the people are talking about ahead of Week 8.

What to do with Anthony Richardson

Could you talk me out of getting out of Anthony Richardson? This has been painful. — drhammond

Unfortunately, I can’t.

To be clear, I hope Anthony Richardson has a long and impactful career. Someone with his athletic ability should be a menace on the field. But let’s keep it a buck for a minute. 

Richardson had 13 college starts. In his final season at Florida, he ranked 91st out of 93 qualifiers (min. 300 dropbacks) in adjusted completion percentage. We overlooked the inaccuracy in favor of the upside. In fairness, making that bet is right. We should look for outliers. But we should also acknowledge the downside.

  • What if Richardson’s accuracy never improves?
  • What if Richardson doesn’t get the time to develop?

None of those questions were on our minds over the summer. We were too busy looking at clips of Richardson throwing to Michael Pittman. Playing in just two full games last year wasn’t a red flag. Now, with only four full games under his belt this season, the tide is already turning against the phenom. Plus, it’s not like Richardson’s showing any signs of development as a passer.

  • Behind the LOS: -0.25 (EPA per dropback), 24th (rank out of 32 qualifiers – min. 112 dropbacks)
  • 1-10 Air Yards: -0.38, 32nd
  • 11-20 Air Yards: 0.03, 27th
  • 20+ Air Yards: 0.17, 20th

Indianapolis’ franchise QB has been one of the least efficient passers relative to his peers at every level of the field. But, for the sake of argument, let’s say Richardson hasn’t thrown enough passes for EPA to be useful. He doesn’t have a large enough sample. Let’s look at this another way.

Richardson has thrown for 783 yards in his five active games. Joe Flacco has generated 716. If we break down their yardage totals by depth, their differences as passers start to stand out.

  • Behind the LOS: 12.4% (Richardson), 5.6% (Flacco)
  • 1-10 Air Yards: 22.7%, 40.2% 
  • 11-20 Air Yards: 32.2%, 32.4%
  • 20+ Air Yards: 32.7%, 21.8%

Most of Richardson’s yards have come on deep passes. In fact, two of three TD passes have come on throws of 50 yards or more. Meanwhile, Flacco has concentrated on the short and intermediate parts of the field. Competing styles aside, with Michael Pittman and Josh Downs as your starting WRs, we shouldn’t have to wonder why fantasy managers prefer Flacco on the field.

On the bright side, it was good to see Richardson tote the rock 14 times in his return. Neither he nor HC Shane Steichen are trying to change the way he plays. Good! But both need to improve how he plays. Until then, looking elsewhere at QB is the right move.

Ray Davis vs. James Cook

What’s your take on the Ray Davis/James Cook dynamic going forward? — trades4sweets

I like how you put Ray Davis first. Subtle.

Technically, shouldn’t Josh Allen be the first rusher on this list? I digress.

Anyway, I try not to overreact to rookies causing an upheaval in their backfield. Well, unless the starter has a history of inefficiency (I’m looking at you, Rachaad White). Then, there’s cause for shoehorning in another (i.e., better) RB. But, in this case, Buffalo didn’t need one.

Our Utilization Report game logs can give us all the context we need. Through the first five weeks, James Cook was a workhorse RB. A 7.2 UR score puts him in the same range as De’Von Achane, J.K. Dobbins, and James Conner. Using the last four seasons of data, RBs around a 7.2 UR have finished as top-12 rushers 25.0% of the time. From Cook’s 50.0% rushing success rate (a top-five mark amongst all rushers with a +50.0% share of their team’s carries) to his 1.71 YPRR (behind only Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara), Cook was playing like a high-end RB1. His only problem was his health.

His toe injury caused him to miss Week 6. And he “eased back” into the offense with 63.0% of the carries this past Sunday. It’s good to see Ray Davis carving out a role, but I’d prefer to take a shot on an RB getting more than 22.0% of the snaps when the starter returns.

Of course, things can change. Maybe Cook’s toe injury lingers. He didn’t get any receiving work in Week 7. Davis could have some contingency value there. Regardless, we need more than a missed game from Cook to crown Davis as the next Chase Brown. But rostering any piece connected to Josh Allen isn’t a bad idea.

McMillan vs. Tillman

For waivers this week, would you drop McMillan (or an RB like Vidal or Bucky) for Cedric Tillman, given his usage this week and Jameis incoming? — chrisdeville

I’d hold Jalen McMillan if possible. I noted in his prospect profile how close he was to Rome Odunze in production prior to getting injured. I’m intrigued as to what he’ll look like as the WR1(B?) in an Evans/Godwin-less Bucs’ passing game. If you had another bench WR, I’d drop them, though.

Kimani Vidal and Bucky Irving hold too much conditional value to place outright on the waiver wire. Even with Rachaad White active, Irving still maintained strong RB2 usage.

On the season, other RBs with a UR score of around 5.8 include Alexander Mattison (6.0), Zach Charbbonet (5.8), and Rico Dowdle (5.6). I’d consider Irving with a WR in a 2-for-1 deal to tier up. Afterward, with the extra bench slot, you could stash Tillman. That’s a win-win. I can’t say the same for Vidal, though.

We may be seeing fewer explosive runs from J.K. Dobbins, but that hasn’t translated to a drop in touches. I thought after a productive debut we’d see more of him. But he’s maxed out at 15.0% of the rushing attempts. Still, should anything happen to Dobbins, he’d vault into the RB2 discussion. So, again, out of those options, there’s no obvious drop candidate. But you’re not wrong to want Tillman.

Admittedly, Tillman fell behind Jerry Jeudy in targets once Jameis Winston took over in the fourth quarter. Cincinnati wasn’t blitzing. Winston had plenty of time in the pocket. The environment was atypical to most Sundays he’ll see in the near future. But, for Tillman’s fantasy value, he looked like the better Cleveland WR for Winston.

  • Air Yards per Target: 11.0 (Tillman), 15.8 (Jeudy)
  • YPRR: 1.87, 1.13

However, try comparing McMillan to Tillman. Both have aggressive pocket passers who can throw an errant pass or five in a single game. Neither is the established WR1 for his offense. We don’t have enough data to definitively say one is in a better situation than the other. Hence, that’s why I’d try to acquire both. And once we get a better read on the passing games, we can adjust from there.