Shit happens in fantasy football land. Whether it's another manager deciding they need the exact player you were hoping would fall just one more spot, or irrational roster construction ruining your carefully crafted strategy: The only certainty during any given fantasy draft is the general uncertainty surrounding what the hell everyone is going to do.

While this inherent randomness can be tilting at times, it also makes fantasy football a lot of fun — particularly when we can use it to our advantage.

Enter: Tier-based drafting. This is essentially the practice of asking yourself "What can I get now that I can't get later" before every pick and acting accordingly. This practice certainly goes hand in hand with fantasy football rankings and general draft strategy; just realize leaning on tiers is really useful when attempting to discern whether or not you have the luxury of waiting on the position in question, or if the time to act is meow.

Today's goal: QB tiers with superlatives to highlight some of the biggest questions facing the involved signal-callers. The QBs are listed in order of my personal rankings inside the tiers and are followed by one specific superlative-themed write-up. Check out my team preview series for full thoughts on every team's QB room.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Tier 1: Dual-threat aliens (6)

QBs with high-volume rushing roles tend to be cheat codes in fantasy football land. These signal-callers are all expected to have just that, with the one exception quite possibly being an actual alien …

  • Bills QB Josh Allen: QB2, QB1, QB2 and QB1 in fantasy points per game over the past four seasons.
  • Eagles QB Jalen Hurts: Trails only Allen (22.3 vs. 23.8) in fantasy points per game over the past three seasons.
  • Ravens QB Lamar Jackson: Owner of the single-most productive fantasy season from a QB on a per-game basis (27.7 in 2019) in NFL history.
  • Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: Career average of 22.4 fantasy points per game is first among all QBs to ever start 16-plus games.
  • Colts QB Anthony Richardson: I will ride my bike from Columbus, Ohio to Lucas Oil Stadium if the reigning QB1 in fantasy points per dropback plays 17 games next season and doesn't finish as a top-12 fantasy QB.
  • Cardinals QB Kyler Murray: One of four QBs in NFL history to average 20-plus fantasy points per game for their career.

Most likely to surprisingly fall in drafts: Kyler Murray

Five quick awesome things about Murray's fantasy football prognosis:

  • The 2019 NFL Draft's No. 1 overall pick is one of four QBs in NFL history to average 20-plus fantasy points per game for their career.
  • He led a top-10 offense in EPA per play, yards per play and TD drive percentage upon returning from injury last season — and looked good doing it.
  • Now healthy, Murray received one of the offseason's biggest prizes in the form of (wait for it) generational WR Marvin Harrison Jr., who is projected to put up top-12 numbers in his first season as a pro.
  • Dual-threat QBs tend to be a bit of a cheat code in fantasy land.
  • Oh yeah, there's also weekly shootout potential on a team with the league's reigning 31st-ranked scoring defense 

And you're telling me there are 85-plus players who ESPN drafters would apparently rather draft at the moment? Couldn't be me: Murray is my QB6 and 64th-ranked player off the board — both highs among the Fantasy Life rankings staff.

Tier 2: Really f*cking good at playing QB (4)

The lack of a true high-end rushing role might leave these more pocket-oriented QBs outside of the position's top-five producers in fantasy land, but make no mistake about it: These players remain some of the position's very best real-life talents, and the ceiling remains sky-high — particularly in formats that reward more than four points per passing TD…

  • Texans QB C.J. Stroud: One of only four QBs to post top-12 fantasy numbers as a rookie over the past decade and now gets Stefon Diggs.
  • Bengals QB Joe Burrow: Only had one fewer top-eight fantasy finish than Stroud last season despite only playing 10 games.
  • Packers QB Jordan Love: Was arguably the league's best QB during the second half of 2023; that's what the numbers say anyways.
  • Cowboys QB Dak Prescott: QB3, QB1, QB8, QB14 and most recently QB5 finishes in fantasy points per game since 2019.

Most likely to have a "ya'll must have forgot" campaign: Joe Burrow

Burrow looked like a complete shell of himself during the first month of the season, rarely leaving the pocket or even taking a snap under center. The results were atrocious and largely nuked his numbers on the year.

Things started to really change after someone woke him up when September ended (see what I did there):

  • Week 5 at Cardinals: 317 pass yards-3 TD-1 INT, fantasy QB6
  • Week 6 vs. Seahawks: 185-2-1, QB14
  • Week 8 at 49ers: 283-3-0, QB5
  • Week 9 vs. Bills: 348-2-0, QB6
  • Week 10 vs. Texans: 347-2-2, QB8

Overall, Burrow posted top-seven marks in EPA per dropback (+.180, 7th), completion percentage over expected (+7.1%, 1st), PFF pass grade (83.3, 6th) and passer rating (107, 2nd) during this five-game stretch of good health. Even against some truly great defenses, he once again looked every bit like anyone's idea of an elite professional QB.

Reminder: Only Josh Allen (24.2), Jalen Hurts (23) and Patrick Mahomes (22.9) averaged more fantasy points per game than Burrow (20.8) during the 2021 and 2022 seasons. Don't discount the potential for a return to top-five standing from the Bengals' 275-million-dollar man.

Tier 3: High-upside rookies (2)

It's common for first-year signal-callers to struggle at the NFL level, but things like rushing volume and a strong supporting cast can help offset that. Enter: The top two picks of the 2024 NFL Draft, who each tentatively seem set up well enough to produce top-12 fantasy production sooner rather than later in their promising careers…

  • Commanders QB Jayden Daniels: 2023 Heisman Trophy winner racked up ridiculous numbers as both a passer (3,812 yards, 40 TDs) and rusher (135-1,134-10) in final season at LSU.
  • Bears QB Caleb Williams: 2022 Heisman Trophy winner offers the sort of uncoachable off-script ability that could make this suddenly loaded Bears offense a real-life and fantasy juggernaut.

Most likely to lead the NFL in rushing yards: Jayden Daniels

While Daniels shouldn't necessarily be considered the favorite to achieve this relative to every QB in the league — it's possible and not erroneous to believe Daniels will be one of the position’s top-five most-productive rushers the second he steps on an NFL field. The man posted 11-163-1, 12-234-2, 10-96-2 and 11-120-0 rushing lines during his final four collegiate games, regularly proving capable of making men miss in the open field and erasing pursuit angles from second-level defenders on his way to racking up chunk gains:

  • Daniels’ rate of 0.31 missed tackles forced per rush attempt tops what guys like Lamar Jackson (0.25), Justin Fields (0.24), Jalen Hurts (0.22) and Kyler Murray (0.18) achieved during their collegiate careers.
  • The LSU product’s 28.5% explosive run play rate is within shouting distance of what Jackson (30.5%), Murray (30.6%) and Malik Willis (31.9%) managed in college.
  • Overall, Daniels' 14.5 fantasy points per game from purely rushing production in his final collegiate season easily led this class and bested what guys like Kyler Murray (12.3) and Anthony Richardson (10) managed in their final year in school

The fact that Daniels achieved this against the best competition that college football had to offer also matters. Our only red flag here is Daniels' recklessness in the open field: He can slide, but as Yahoo’s Nate Tice points out: There’s some Johnny Knoxville to his game.

Fifteen of 16 QBs to rack up 125-plus carries in a season ever went on to post top-12 numbers in fantasy points per game — including 11 top-five finishes. This is certainly something Kingsbury has plenty of experience with dating back to his time with Kyler Murray in Arizona: Only the Saints (s/o Taysom Hill) utilized more designed QB runs than the Cardinals during the 2019 to 2022 seasons.

Tier 4: A strong supporting cast is a helluva drug (3)

These signal-callers are a bit like Batman: No special superpowers, but the toolkit is DEEP in each QB's respective fantasy-friendly environment, and they accordingly deserve to be prioritized in the QB2 landscape…

  • 49ers QB Brock Purdy: Combines largely unmatched passing efficiency numbers with off-script ability that deserves far more praise from the mainstream media. 
  • Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa: NFL's reigning passing yards leader has posted top-five numbers in virtually any meaningful advanced passing efficiency metric since 2022.
  • Lions QB Jared Goff: Eighth in EPA per dropback (+0.173) and yards per attempt (7.5) over the past two seasons inside this well-coached and complete Lions offense.

Most likely to cheer for global warming: Tua Tagovailoa

Just look at his fantasy points per game by month over the past two seasons:

  • September: 22.1
  • October: 18.7
  • November: 16.9
  • December: 14.1
  • January: 10

Tagovailoa put up solid fantasy production in 2022 (17.8 fantasy points per game, QB10) and (to a lesser extent) in 2023 (15.9, QB18). The passing efficiency and counting numbers are tough to argue with, but the floor here is low due to the lack of any rushing upside: Tua has totaled 144 yards on the ground over the past two seasons and has never reached even 50 rushing yards in a game during his collegiate or professional career.

Of course, getting to throw to one of the NFL's very best WR duos helps matters, and head coach Mike McDaniel consistently puts this passing game in a position to succeed thanks to some of his work with pre-snap shift/motion (84.3% in 2022-23, 1st) and play-action (34.1%, 2nd).

Would Tua be ranked this high in fantasy land if he was forced to play for a team with less fantasy-friendly pass-game resources like the Chargers or Steelers? Nope, but guess what: Style points don't matter in fantasy football, so perceived "system" QBs tend to be pretty solid assets when said system happens to be one of the best in the league.

Tier 5: Could be a QB1 if you squint hard enough (5)

This looks a lot like the last group of signal-callers who you could SOMEWHAT realistically see finishing among this season's top-12 producers. Then again, your argument would likely fare quite a bit better after a handful of alcoholic beverages …

  • Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence: The nauseating amount of near-miss TDs and injuries helped nuke 2023; perhaps new weapons on the outside and a revamped offensive line bring out a new level of fantasy goodness from the 24-year-old RICH QB. 
  • Chargers QB Justin Herbert: QB7, QB2, QB15 and QB10 fantasy finishes on a per-game basis since entering the league, but now faces the prospect of combining career-low volume with his worst supporting cast yet.
  • Browns QB Deshaun Watson: Remains one of just four QBs in NFL history to average at least 20 fantasy points per game for their career.
  • Titans QB Will Levis: The entire Titans offense seems to be embracing more of an up-tempo, pass-heavy approach, perhaps enabling Levis to put up better fantasy numbers than real-life goodness on a team fully expected to be trailing and in comeback mode often.
  • Seahawks QB Geno Smith: One year removed from working as fantasy's QB9 on a per-game basis. Loaded WR room and new vertically-minded OC will hopefully make up for what still looks like a mediocre offensive line.

Most likely to emerge as this year's must-have late-round QB: Deshaun Watson

Watson has started just 12 football games over the past three seasons. Glass-half-full optimists can point to the ever-brutal December weather in Cleveland as well as rotator cuff and shoulder injuries as reasons why the three-time Pro Bowler hasn't managed to catch his stride with his new employer.

That said: We're talking about a guy who ranks among the league's bottom-10 QBs in virtually any meaningful advanced passing metric over the past two seasons. Quite the falloff for someone who trailed only Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees in EPA + CPOE composite score during the 2017 to 2020 seasons.

This brings us to the primary question here: What are the chances that Watson turns things around ahead of a CRUCIAL 2024 season that could represent his last opportunity to work as the team's full-time starter? Don't get it twisted: The Browns can't realistically get out of this hideous contract without forfeiting over $60 million in dead money before 2027, but another lackluster campaign could feasibly be the last straw considering how much public ridicule this team has faced since trading for his services in the first place.

The bear and bull cases for Watson ahead of next season:

  • Bull: Watson recorded three top-10 fantasy finishes in essentially his only five full games last season. It'd make sense if his third year in Kevin Stefanski's offense, combined with an improved receiving core, and better health, yields the best results yet in Cleveland.
  • Bear: One of the worst NFL QBs over the last two seasons continues to function as just that. Continued regression in rushing production leads to minimal spike weeks in an offense that ranks 28th in pass-play rate (56.5%) under Stefanski.

Priced well outside the top 150 picks over at ESPN, Watson is essentially a free LATE round pick who would instantly vault back into the weekly QB1 conversation with a Week 1 performance even somewhat similar to what fans regularly saw in Houston a few short years ago.

Tier 6: Veteran statues and Bryce Young (6)

The rushing upside here is basically non-existent, but maybe these mostly old men can string together one last hurrah inside offenses that do have some solid avenues to go with the football. Of course, they're as cheap as they are for a reason in fantasy land: There are plenty of red flags here…

  • Rams QB Matthew Stafford: Engineered a top-four offense in both EPA and yards per play when healthy last season; threw for 4,886 yards and 41 TDs the last time he managed to start every regular season game.
  • Falcons QB Kirk Cousins: Was the QB6 in both fantasy points per game and EPA per dropback in 2023. Don't underestimate the tricky recovery from the torn Achilles, but perhaps Cousins and this rock-solid supporting cast stave off Father Time for a year or two. 
  • Jets QB Aaron Rodgers: Played the position better than just about anyone … back in 2020 and 2021. Still, the Jets' revamped offensive line and solid enough group of playmakers could bring out a "last dance" sort of effort from the 40-year-old veteran.
  • Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield: 2023's revival season produced multiple 300-plus yard and three-TD playoff efforts, yet just a QB17 regular season performance in fantasy points per game. The regression gods might be coming: No QB had a larger difference in turnover-worthy plays (24) and actual turnovers (13) than Mayfield last season.
  • Panthers QB Bryce Young: The combination of a bottom-five supporting cast and mediocre play-calling made Carolina arguably the single least-QB-friendly offensive environment in football last season. Of course, offseason improvements aren't guaranteed to take Young from arguably the league's single-worst QB to something closer to average.
  • Saints QB Derek Carr: Actually tied C.J. Stroud for the NFL lead in 300-plus yard passing performances with six. Still, the utter lack of a rushing floor has always made Carr a not-so-fantasy-friendly QB, and this offense isn't exactly overflowing with high-end pass-game weaponry with all due respect to Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.

Most likely to function as the best real-life QB: Matthew Stafford

The "Wait Matthew Stafford is actually really good" tour has continued this offseason, most notably with Texans QB C.J. Stroud stating that the ex-Lions signal-caller would have more rings than Aaron Rodgers if he had spent the early portion of his career in Green Bay.

Offseason speculation is a helluva drug. Regardless, there is plenty of evidence that, at a minimum, Stafford functioned as a pretty damn good QB in the year 2023.

Stafford among 32 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks in 2023:

  • EPA per dropback: +0.144 (No. 8)
  • Completion percentage over expected: -1.9% (No. 26)
  • PFF pass grade: 86.0 (No. 4)
  • Passer rating: 94.3 (No. 12)
  • Yards per attempt: 7.8 (No. 5)

The performance was particularly impressive considering longtime No. 1 WR Cooper Kupp missed time with a hamstring injury and generally didn't look like his usual self throughout the season. Credit to Puka Nacua as well as (to far lesser extents) Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell for picking up the slack; just realize Stafford wasn't exactly dealing with the world's great pass-catching core here.

Of course, having Sean McVay will always help from a play-calling perspective, and the league's ninth-ranked rushing attack in terms of raw yards per carry consistently kept opposing defenses honest. This offense was grooving by the end of the season, scoring 37, 36, 31, 28, 30, 26 and 23 points in their final seven meaningful games.

The potential for multi-TD spike weeks is certainly still here. I'm more than fine with Stafford as my second QB, even if cheaper options like Deshaun Watson and Will Levis probably present higher best-case *fantasy* ceilings in the year 2024.

Tier 7: Wild Cards (11)

None of these QBs are locks to start all 17 games ahead of 2024. While each deserves credit for at a minimum being a top-40 or so QB on planet Earth, it's tough to be overly optimistic about their fantasy upside inside these mostly anemic offensive environments…

  • Giants QB Daniel Jones: Unironically worked as the QB8 in fantasy points per game in 2022; it's just tough to expect a return to form in that department coming off last season's season-ending ACL injury and an ongoing neck issue that reportedly caused a significant lack of strength in his left arm in 2023.
  • Broncos QB Bo Nix: Scored more total TDs (94) than any other Power 5 QB over the past two seasons and should start 17 games. Still, the Broncos might have the league's single-worst overall roster, and relatively elderly QB prospects generally haven't worked out too well over the years.
  • Patriots QB Drake Maye: A potentially porous offensive environment and the presence of Jacoby Brissett could make volume an ongoing issue.
  • Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy: The supporting cast here stands out as the best of the group, but the 2024 NFL Draft's 10th-overall pick could struggle to provide fantasy-viable volume in both the pass and run game even if/when he lands the starting job.
  • Steelers QB Russell Wilson: Wilson averaged a mere 0.38 fantasy points per game fewer than that Patrick Mahomes dude last season, but is fully expected to operate a run-first offense under every fantasy footballer's favorite coach Arthur Smith.
  • Steelers QB Justin Fields: Possesses more upside than any other QB on this list … if he can ever land the starting job, which is far from a guarantee.
  • Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell: Was the NFL's single-least accurate QB in completion percentage over expected last year. The expected short leash and utter lack of rushing upside makes this a low-ceiling bet.
  • Raiders QB Gardner Minshew: Not guaranteed the starting job and finished as just the QB26 in fantasy points per game in 2023.
  • Vikings QB Sam Darnold: It'd be pretty shocking if Darnold is still under center after the Vikings' Week 6 bye.
  • Patriots QB Jacoby Brissett: Low-key has been pretty damn good the last two years, notably generating a TD drive on all five of his meaningful drives with the Commanders, but it'd be surprising if Maye doesn't start before too long.
  • Giants QB Drew Lock: The Jeezy lover reportedly has a real chance to win the starting job, even if his lack of rushing volume and expected meh passing efficiency still wouldn't make him an overly fantasy-relevant option at the position.

Most likely to surprise and quickly emerge as a #good QB: Drake Maye

The 2024 NFL Draft's No. 3 overall pick's 2022 campaign (4,321 pass yards, 38 TDs) was a bit more prolific than the encore in 2023 (3,608 yards, 24 TDs), but maybe that’s just life after losing your top-two WRs to the NFL (Josh Downs, Antoine Green) and dealing with a pretty meh offensive line (and sore ankle) all season long.

PFF's highest-graded passing QB over the past two seasons also possesses some sneaky-solid rushing upside. His rushing production wound up being more prolific than any of the big-six QBs not named Jayden Daniels when removing yards lost from sacks:

Fantasy points per game from purely rushing production 2022-23:

For reference, Maye (57 rushing yards per game in 2022-23) finds himself in the same group as guys like Anthony Richardson (59 in 2022) and Justin Fields (55 in 2019-20). Having this extra bit of dual-threat goodness could really help Maye surprise early on in fantasy land, even if his real-life development takes a bit to get going.

Top-10 QBs seldom spend much time on the bench as rookies, so failure to win the job by Week 1 shouldn't necessarily be seen as a full-season issue for Maye. The team's unproven (to put it nicely) group of pass-catchers and probable run-first offense doesn't bode too well for Maye's chances of returning too much fantasy goodness, but then again, fantasy managers don't need to look back too far to find the last time a top-three QB immediately elevated his offense and emerged as a late-round gem in fantasy land.