I'm loving being back in the rhythm of the weekly football schedule. Sunday morning walks in the park to tire out my dog before a long day of football is one of my favorite traditions, and I'm guessing you have your own.
Another favorite part of my weekly routine is diving into the expected points data on Tuesdays. Early in the season this data can be pretty noisy, but each subsequent week brings a larger sample size and more signal to the data we are looking at. When trying to identify regression candidates, there was a lot of noise in the Week 1 data. With a second week now in the books, we are starting to see usage trends emerge as well as getting a better feel for which defenses are actually good.
This week and next should be great opportunities for fantasy managers who are ahead of the curve to benefit from mistakes by your leaguemates. Whether that is dropping a player who has gotten off to a slow start or wanting to trade for a player who is due for negative regression. Let's stay ahead of our competition and explore some of the top positive and negative regression candidates heading into Week 3.
Positive Regression
Chris Olave
If I told you three weeks ago that the Saints would be the NFL's best offense through two games, you would (rightfully) assume Chris Olave has been dominating. In reality, Olave has seen just 8 targets and totaled 92 receiving yards with no TDs through two weeks. So what gives?
Olave is actually suffering from the Saints offense being too efficient (a sentence I couldn't have imagined writing just a couple weeks ago). New Orleans leads the league in yards per attempt and is tied for the most passing TDs, but its success on deep passes has actually limited the overall passing volume. New Orleans is dead last in pass attempts with just 40 so far this season.
What really stood out to me was that Olave has been a full-time player (running 89% of routes) and has posted a really strong YPRR of 2.36 (just above Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, and Marvin Harrison Jr.) but hasn't been very relevant for fantasy.
New Orleans has scored on every single one of its drives with Derek Carr at QB, which has led to a lot of garbage time and clock killing as the Saints hold onto big leads. This environment hasn't required the Saints to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters yet, but I'm excited to see what can happen when they actually get pushed by an opposing offense.
We've already seen Olave's usage bounce back in a major way following a disappointing Week 1, but he hasn't had a huge fantasy day yet. It's only a matter of time before the talented third-year WR has some big games of his own.
I'm buying this offensive revolution in New Orleans and I'm expecting Olave to be a big part of it over the course of the season. The Rashid Shaheed breakout is awesome (and very real), and although it may have contributed to the slow start for Olave, I think Shaheed's presence will ultimately help Olave as defenses have to account for another weapon in the passing game.
I was worried about this Saints offense coming into this season, but they have quickly dispelled all of those concerns. This has made Olave my favorite buy-low candidate in all of fantasy football, I want to be trading for him anywhere I can. If you drafted him, just sit back and wait for the big games to pile up. If you didn't draft him, check in with the manager who did and see if they are nervous about his slow start.
Josh Jacobs
The Packers have leaned heavily on Josh Jacobs to open the season and he is tied with Jordan Mason for the most carries among all RBs through two games with 48. He has even been reasonably efficient at 5.0 YPC, which would be the best mark of his career if he can sustain it. The part of his game that is due for positive regression is in the TD department.
Jacobs has yet to score this season, but he appears locked into the goal-line role on what should be a high-powered offense when Jordan Love returns. He really should have scored against the Colts but ended up fumbling inches before he made it to the end zone.
The depth chart behind Jacobs remains incredibly thin with MarShawn Lloyd headed to IR so I don't see any threats to his workload. No, he won't get 32 carries like he did in Week 2 very often, but he should see all of the high value touches. With highly encouraging news that Jordan Love could return in the next week or two, I'm very excited to see what the Packers offense can do at full strength and what that means for Jacobs' fantasy value.
Negative Regression
J.K. Dobbins
Dobbins has been one of the stories of the season so far, with his improbable comeback from multiple major injuries. He leads all RBs in rushing yards through two weeks despite ranking 21st in carries. He's been insanely efficient, averaging 9.9 yards per carry. The next-highest mark among RBs with 10+ attempts is just 6.3 YPC. Last season, De'Von Achane's 7.9 YPC was considered a massive outlier.
All of that is to say that what Dobbins has done through the first two weeks is very unlikely to be sustainable. Normally, a player who is wildly efficient on moderate volume would be expected to get more work, which could help to offset the inevitable regression of their efficiency. In Dobbins' case, it is worth asking how much more volume the team really wants to give him considering his injury history and its offseason investment in Gus Edwards.
I'm not totally shutting the door on Dobbins being the Chargers' workhorse (he did get 17 carries in Week 2), but I'm skeptical of his ability to stay healthy with a large workload. It's also worth noting that his first two matchups were against the Raiders and Panthers, neither of which looks like a strong run defense. The Chargers' next two games are against the Steelers and Chiefs, and both teams rank in the top 7 of defenses against the RB position.
I still expect Dobbins to be a valuable fantasy asset, but tougher opponents and the long grind of the NFL season should bring his efficiency down. If you can use Dobbins' hot start to upgrade to a true stud who has gotten off to a slow start (see Josh Jacobs above) I would be happy to make that trade.
Calvin Ridley
Hand up, I was not expecting Calvin Ridley to get off to such a great start this season. The Titans' big offseason signing has lived up to the billing so far by leading the team in receiving each of their first two games as well as scoring twice in Week 2. Ridley looks to be the focal point in the passing game, particularly while DeAndre Hopkins is hampered by his knee injury.
While Ridley delivered for fantasy managers with a WR2 performance in Week 2, there are several reasons to be concerned. The biggest issue is simply that the Titans offense has been very inefficient outside of Ridley, ranking 27th in yards per attempt. Meanwhile, Ridley ranks 13th among all WRs with 18.1 yards per reception. Not only is it unlikely that he can remain so efficient while the overall passing game is inefficient, that number is also well above his career average of 13.5 yards per reception.
Of course, two weeks is a small sample size and his strong efficiency is primarily being driven by connecting on a handful of deep targets as evidenced by his 23.9-yard aDOT (2nd among all WRs with at least 5 targets). Unless the Tennessee passing game can take a big step forward, I'm not confident in Ridley maintaining his value
Another reason to be worried about Ridley is that he hasn't been a target dominator despite DeAndre Hopkins running only 37% of the routes so far this season. This could partially be due to the fact that he is running a lot of deep routes, which tend not to get targeted at a high rate, but 6.5 targets per game is unlikely to be enough for him to deliver significant fantasy value.
Ridley wasn't drafted super highly so I'm not panicked about his role thus far, but this does seem like an ideal opportunity to see if you can offload him to another manager if you have the WR depth to support that move.
