Fantasy Football Regression Candidates for 2024: Expect a career year from a veteran TE?

We are less than 30 days from the start of the NFL season. Whether you have been drafting best ball teams for months or are just getting back into the football news cycle, it's time to lock in and get ready to dominate whatever type of fantasy football you play.

To help with that, I'm back again with two positive regression and two negative regression candidates for the 2024 season. If you missed the first installment of this offseason series be sure to check it out here.

Positive Regression Candidates for Fantasy Football

Javonte Williams, RB - Broncos

This could be a make-or-break season for Javonte Williams after his disappointing 2023 campaign. Williams saw plenty of volume but struggled in the efficiency department. The below table compares his 2023 results to his rookie season for a few key metrics.

There is no guarantee Williams will return to the player he was pre-injury but if it is going to happen, it will likely be this season and his ESPN ADP of 108.6 makes him a relatively low-risk bet. If the efficiency rebounds and he sees a similar level of volume to last season he should smash his current ADP. If he has even a little bit of TD luck then he could suddenly become a home run pick.

The Denver Broncos led the NFL in targets to the RB position last season and then drafted a rookie QB (Bo Nix) who was known for checking the ball down in college. The usage should be there for whoever the top back in Denver is, and there have been some very positive messages from HC Sean Payton about Williams' progress this offseason.

Per the PFF Expected Points model, Williams' usage last season was worth 12.2 half-PPR expected points per game which was tied for 22nd among RBs. There is some risk that Denver's committee approach limits his upside, but last season showed us what a bad version of that scenario looks like and he is still only being drafted four spots higher (RB30) than he finished last season (RB34). 

The positive coach speak, the additional year removed from his injury, and his low cost in drafts make Williams one of my favorite positive regression candidates to bet on for the 2024 season.

Tyler Conklin, TE - Jets

The positive regression scenario for Tyler Conklin is incredibly simple: he just needs to catch some TDs.

Conklin has had exactly 83 targets in each of the last three seasons and has been right around the 60-catch mark. The problem is that he has failed to score more than 3 TDs in any of those seasons, including his brutal goose egg in the TD column last year.

So what could help with his TD efficiency? How about a massive QB upgrade with Aaron Rodgers finally back on the field for the Jets' offense?

When Rodgers has played close to a full season he has never been below the 25 TD mark and has thrown for more than 30 TDs eight separate times during his career. During the last two seasons combined, the Jets offense has only had 26 total passing TDs. So yeah, I think there are going to be more TDs to go around this offense as long as Rodgers is on the field.

According to the PFF Expected Points model, Conklin should have had 3-4 receiving TDs last season based on his usage. Now that he gets to play with an elite passing QB, I fully expect him to set a new career high for receiving TDs in a single season (just needs to catch 4). In a ceiling scenario, I think he could match his career total of 7 receiving TDs in this season alone.

The Jets WR room isn't that deep so I wouldn't be surprised to see Conklin emerge as the third weapon in this offense behind Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall which makes him one of my favorite late-round TE selections this year.

Negative Regression Candidates for Fantasy Football

Travis Etienne, RB - Jaguars

A few factors are working against Etienne heading into this season that make him a negative regression candidate. The most straightforward reason is that he is due for negative TD regression. Etienne handled a big workload last season with 325 regular season touches which he managed to turn into 12 total TDs. This was four more TDs than projected by the PFF Expected Points model which suggests it could be tough for him to repeat that output even if he has a similar role in 2024.

To make things even more complicated for fantasy managers, there is no guarantee Etienne's role will be as valuable as it was last season.

The early reports out of the Jaguars training camp make it seem like Etienne will have more competition for touches this season now that Tank Bigsby isn't playing like the worst RB in football anymore. This is worth noting because Etienne had one of the largest roles among RBs last season. He ranked top 5 in snap share, rush attempt share, and route participation at the position. 

Fantasy Life projections still have Etienne as the clear lead back in Jacksonville and are even projecting a bounce-back season for his rushing efficiency, but he still falls well short of his 2023 fantasy output in that scenario.

Jordan Addison, WR - Vikings

In case you haven't picked up on the theme here, TDs are often one of the key levers for predicting regression candidates because they can swing wildly from one season to the next in a way that most metrics don't. I fear we could see that play out with one of the NFL's most promising young WRs, Jordan Addison.

After an electric rookie campaign where he hauled in 10 TD passes, things are going to get trickier for Addison in year two. With Kirk Cousins no longer on the team and some combination of Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy slated to play most of the QB snaps for Minnesota this season it only makes sense to project the offense to take a step back this season.

For those of you pointing out that Cousins only played eight games for Minnesota last season, and Addison still put up a strong rookie year, you are correct. However, seven of Addison's ten TD catches came in those first eight games and five of his seven games with 60+ receiving yards also came with Cousins on the field.

I wouldn't be surprised if Addison gets close to his yardage total from last season (911) but the TDs seem much less likely to repeat. Referencing the Fantasy Life projections, we have him at 5.5 TDs for this season which is reasonable, but if I was betting that line I would lean towards the under.

There are a lot of unknowns in this Minnesota offense so I will admit there is a wide range of outcomes, including Addison outperforming this projection, but I view that as a low-probability outcome.