Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Elijah Moore, Russell Wilson, and More
John Laghezza and Gene Clemons dig deep with non-obvious, outside-the-box lineup advice. John's a numbers guy, Gene is a literal football coach — what more could you ask for?
Let's jump right in.
Laghezza's Week 8 RBs To Start: Sticking With J.K. Dobbins
Using a weighted mix of over a dozen different advanced stats on each side of the balI, I reverse-power-ranked every defense in the league — all to point fantasy gamers of any league size toward the right start/sit answers this weekend.
- Broncos (vs CAR) — Just as fantasy gamers contemplated quitting Javonte Williams for good, he finally breaks out (14-88-2; 3-23-0) and the four-win Broncos find new life. Granted, Denver’s competition likely drove these outcomes. But if that’s the case for a repeat, one good turn deserves another — because it’s the historically bad Panthers on deck. Carolina’s now allowed +34 points four weeks in a row, so even if CAR stops the run per se, oppositions feast via volume. DEN doesn’t usually support multiple RBs but desperate players with injury-riddled rosters can consider Jaleel McLaughlin.
- Chargers (vs NO)— Rake-shaped bruise on my face or not, I’m going back to the well and starting the Chargers’ J.K. Dobbins. Despite an underwhelming game versus the Cardinals last Sunday (14-40-0; 3-26-0), Los Angeles’ O-line’s back to full health, and Dobbins still commanded the lion’s share of touches — he had a 6.9 UR Score — with reasonably strong efficiency metrics (5.0 yards/rush, 1.0 yards over expectation/rush, 11.6% explosive rush rate). Deeper leaguers can meditate on rolling with backup Kimani Vidal against a Saints rush defense ranking 30th or worse in just about everything that matters.
Laghezza's Week 8 QBs/WRs/TEs To Start: An Unlikely Source
- Packers (at JAX) — When Jaguar is on the menu, everyone’s eating good. Jacksonville is this year’s preeminent secondary to attack, ranking dead last in defensive EPA/dropback (-0.30), opposer passer rating (113.7), and passing touchdowns (16). They'll be doing their best to stop Green Bay, led by Jordan Love, this year’s QB4 in fantasy points/game. Even target distribution among the several skilled GB pass catchers spells fantasy frustration at times — but not this week. Start Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft everywhere. With no teams on bye you may have better options than Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks but they likely earn a nod in most 14-team formats.
- Browns (at BAL) — Cleveland fans finally get their wish for an agressive offense granted with QB Jameis Winston taking signals from new play-caller Ken Dorsey. The 2024 Ravens are a massive pass funnel. BAL not only stops the run (3.3 YPC) and can be beaten deep in the secondary (dead last in +20-yard completions), but they’re also a top-scoring offense pushing every game script deep into negative territory. Start Cedric Tillman and Elijah Moore with confidence, ready to hold your nose for garbage time production.
Gene’s Bold Prediction: Start David Njoku TE, Browns
Now that Amari Cooper has once again successfully tanked his way off a team and people can put their Deshaun Watson feelings away for the foreseeable future, the Browns can get back to trying to play quality football. Enter Jameis Winston, a guy who is better than a third of the QBs currently starting in the league. He's got moxie, toughness, sneaky athleticism, and a cannon for an arm. He also still has someone to throw it to — and that's tight end David Njoku.
When Winston came in the game last Sunday he hit the big tight end, who is starting to find his footing after missing the beginning of the season with injury, twice for 12 yards and a touchdown. Last season, when another big arm QB took over for the Browns, he had success. Let's hope that Winston's run as a starter comes with fewer interceptions than Joe Flacco’s did, but he's going to get the ball to Njoku. It's been a bad season for tight endsm so you are likely trying to find a spark. Njoku could definitely be the ignition you are looking for.
Laghezza Says Sit These Week 8 RBs
- CLE (vs BAL) — The Ravens are the ultimate pass funnel — that’s my story and I’m sticking to it. I love Nick Chubb as much as the next guy but there’s a time and a place for his deployment. Given the potential for a lightened workload coming off surgery, combined with his historical lack of involvement in the pass game as underdogs, I’m passing on all Browns RBs down the line, including D’Onta Foreman and Pierre Strong.
- Giants (vs PIT) — Tyrone Tracy’s a great story and a must-hold in redraft formats but both he and Devin Singletary should ride the pine if you have another viable option anywhere. The best fantasy GMs can hope for with this iteration of NYG is half a pie, long gone rotten. Avoid Giant RBs (and maybe everyone else on New York while you’re at it) against T.J. Watt and the Steelers.
Laghezza Says Sit These Week 8 WRs/TEs/QBs
- Raiders (vs KC) — Gardner Minshew’s back under center after totaling 236 yards in two full games… and may end up wishing he wasn’t by the time it’s all said and done. The Chiefs remain the final undefeated team and it has very little to do with their offense. Don’t take my word on the quality of KC’s defense, ask the books—they’re double-digit favorites on a 41.5 point game total. Las Vegas will be forced to throw, sure, but you can imagine Steve Spagnuolo will be keyed in on Brock Bowers. The star rookie TE can’t be benched — but I wouldn’t start Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, DJ Turner, or anyone else with a pirate on their helmet for that matter.
- Colts (vs HOU)— As one of Anthony Richardons’s biggest supporters this summer, even I’ve been forced to hit the eject button. His stats continually reach new, unbearable lows: 0.5 TD/INT, 6% INT/Att, -0.11 EPA/dropback, 49% completion, 60 PSR. Woof. The Texans haven’t made it easy for anyone, yet to allow a single QB to go over +235 yards while ranking top-5 in completion rate and passing yards allowed. It’s going to be difficult to push the button but wherever possible, get away from Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Adonai Mitchell this weekend.
Gene’s Bold Prediction: Sit Russell Wilson QB, Steelers
Amidst a lot of uncertainty and doubt from the fantasy community, Russell Wilson was inserted into the Steelers starting lineup and the offense produced its best statistical output of the season in their 37-15 beatdown of the Jets on Sunday Night Football; Wilson left a lot of naysayers seemingly looking foolish as he finished the week as fantasy's No. 3 QB in points scored.
I'm more than willing to admit to being wrong — after all, I like Wilson and have always believed that he needed more credit than he was given, especially during those Seahawks years. My problem is that his game was far too fluky for my taste. It was not precision passing or a well-constructed game plan that made him a fantasy standout. There were incredible catches by receivers that made it a great day. Is that sustainable? Absolutely not. Unless I'm not aware of the aliens that came from Moron Mountain and turned these receivers into the Monstars, you can expect a regression. My suggestion is wait another week and get a bigger sample size before you really let Russ cook in your fantasy lineup.
John's Parting Thought: Let’s Go To The Circus
Simply put, winning weekly fantasy matchups is all about attaching yourself to the highest scoring games. Check out this beauty (you may have to zoom in a little):
When I’m in a pinch this is my favorite image when in need of a thousand words — if all else fails, head toward the circus. I charted the entire league’s points scored with points allowed for a simple reference:
Gene’s Parting Thought: Patience, Darlin', Patience
Another week, another active waiver wire full of finding replacements for injured receivers and underperforming running backs. Ask yourself: is it wise to gamble on an unknown commodity for a couple more fantasy points? We're all looking for the gem we can tell our friends we locked in long before anyone else. The truth is that your best option may be right on your bench or the player you are reluctant to play weekly. Now is the time for patience. The big moves may be coming but they are not here yet. Let's go get ‘em!