Welcome back to the your favorite Start/Sit column, where John Laghezza and Gene Clemons dig deep into a fantasy football bag of tricks with non-obvious, outside-the-box lineup advice. John's a numbers guy (who writes our newsletter), Gene is a literal football coach (who is on both our LG show and SiriusXM shows).

Let's jump in.

Using a weighted mix of over a dozen different advanced stats on each side of the balI, I reverse-power-ranked every defense in the league — all to point fantasy gamers of any league size toward the right start/sit answers this weekend.

Laghezza's Week 15 RBs To Start

Cowboys (vs Panthers)

Dallas entered the season as one of the league’s worst run attacks before Dak Prescott went down and the whole offense bordered on untouchable. Props to Mike McCarthy for leaning into whatever strengths remained on the roster and still getting a viable offense on the field. Rico Dowdle returned from injury as the lead tailback the same week Prescott injured his hamstring — and his ascension to fantasy RB1 can’t be denied. Dowdle’s inside the top-10 in usage with borderline elite production since (I know) — his yards per rush (5.2), yards over expectation per rush (0.93), yards after contact per rush (3.9), and success rate (52%) all rank top-5 in that span. Meanwhile, the Panthers allowed an insane +200 rushing yards/game this month, sitting dead last in defensive EPA/rush and yards/carry on the season. Hopefully you held on to Dallas’ fourth year UDFA — he’s my RB start of the week.

Titans (vs Bengals) 

Getting anyone with a pulse in your lineup against the Bengals paid the bills all year. Keep striking while the striped iron’s hot — it’s second nature at this point until something changes. Lou Anarumo’s D couldn’t stop a snail race with a salt shaker, and it’s gotten worse as the year progresses. Cincy’s circling the drain in EPA/rush (-0.12), rush success rate (43.1%), yards/carry (5.5), +20-yard rushes (5), and explosive rush rate (14.5%). Now mix in the effectiveness of the high-flying Bengal offense for the perfect fantasy recipe (chef’s kiss). Enter Tony Pollard, Tennessee’s overinflated beach ball being held underwater. For the elite dual-threat utilization this year (252 touches), it’s a shame Pollard posted just one top-10 positional finish. Yes, the Titans’ offense plays the weekly anchor, dragging down anyone attached to it. And yes, I mistakenly bought into Will Levis’ recent run—but I do expect a bounceback in a smash spot. I’d even queue up Tyjae Spears in deeper leagues. Music City could get funky.

Laghezza's Week 15 QBs/WRs/TEs To Start

Jets (at Jaguars) 

You either die the hero or live long enough to recommend the dumpster fire Jets. In what feels like the ultimate fake out breakout, there’s no choice but to prioritize your NYJ players Sunday. Last week Aaron Rodgers eclipsed +300 passing yards for the first time since December… of 2021. The Dolphins can play, too. Could this finally be the offensive continuity we’ve waited for? Even a downtrodden Jet fan has to admit there’s an excess of talent in the WR room — it’s just a matter of delivering the rock to your stars. Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams just marked the 10th pair of Jets wideouts to go over the century mark in the same game. That’s the type of potential we’re talking about, especially as an already narrow target tree loses a main branch in Breece Hall. Sure, the Jags just stopped Will Levis in his tracks. Who cares? Big whoop. Jacksonville’s the worst of the worst, pulling up the caboose as the 32nd squad in yards/game (396.1), yards/play (6.0), average drive distance (36.6), EPA/dropback (-0.26), opposer passer rating (107.5), and +20-yard completions (58). I even have a playoff team with Kyle Pitts (yuck) and Juwan Johnson (no Derek Carr) that might benefit from NYJ’s third option, Tyler Conklin.

Vikings (vs Bears) 

Time for this week’s mail-in pick. Start Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. You’re welcome. I know, how do I deliver this type of brain-wracking analysis so frequently? It’s a gift. More applicable to those of us with eyes still locked on the fantasy prize is Sam Darnold’s recent play. The former third-overall pick could’ve gone in the tank after losing his star LT but didn’t — all amidst a four game skid in which he threw more picks than any QB in the league. Talk about a major bounceback. Darnold’s leading the NFL in passer rating (126.7) with an incredible 11 TD:0 INT as fantasy’s QB3 this month. Wow. Still available in about a quarter of fantasy leagues, he’s worth a rare playoff stream against a struggling Bears’ secondary — Chicago’s allowed the most deep completions and yards after the catch over the last four games.

Gene’s Bold Prediction: Start Sean Tucker

Let’s operate as if Bucky Irving will be ready to play this weekend. He's still dealing with an injury, so what will that mean for his touches in this game? Rachaad White is still in the mix and will likely always be as long as he’s healthy but if you're looking for a starter in Week 15, the pickings may be thin. 

Enter Sean Tucker. 

Tucker is a tough, explosive runner who keeps finding his way into the lineup. Here are a few paths to a successful day for Tucker: 

  • The first is goal line/red zone touches. Because he is a strong, tough back with explosiveness he can blast through small holes and run around bad angles. He could be in line for those tough carries to try and keep Irving healthy. 
  • The second is if Irving or White gets banged up again and they need to leave the game; that will elevate Tucker into a role with much more responsibility. 
  • Finally, if the Bucs get out to a good lead they tend to salt the game away with their running backs, which means a bigger role for Tucker, especially if they sit Irving, White, or both to keep them healthy. 

I can’t stress enough that this is a bold start and one that would only result if you did not have clearly better options… but there are paths to a good day for him even in a crowded backfield. 

Laghezza's Week 15 RBs To Sit

Jaguars (vs Jets) 

Uh oh, two nice things to say about the Jets in one article. 

Still one of the biggest year-over-year letdowns of the entire 2024 season, the Jets’ defense started tackling again, which is nice. Gang Green’s shored up the interior over their last four games, ranking top-3 against the run in EPA/rush (0.17), success rate (70.0%), yards/rush (2.8), yards before contact/rush (0.25)—all without giving up a single +20-yard carry since Week 9. Jeff Ulbrich’s free to get in his bag Sunday versus arguably the NFL’s worst offense. Sure, Tank Bigsby looks sharp at times but Travis Etienne’s always nipping away at high-value passing-down or goal-to-go snaps. Nothing worse than the dreaded committee approach on a team implying fewer than 19 points. There’s a reason it’s been nearly two months since a Jaguar RB finished inside the top-8 at the position. Bench your spotted cats.

Colts (at Broncos) 

Winning the fantasy playoffs is a lesson in shrewdness sometimes, counterintuitively inviting discomfort. I get it, seeing your second-round pick Jonathan Taylor sitting there in your lineup every week feels warm and fuzzy — a name brand, rarely ever earning consideration for the bench. It’s time to change that. Taylor finished as a top-10 RB just once all season. Yikes. And the inputs couldn’t be worse. A struggling offense with a beast at QB soaking up tons of carries, especially at the goal-line. As if consistently losing goal-to-go carries wasn’t bad enough, GMs lose out on all those cheap PPR points we love so much — Anthony Richardson ranks 52nd out of a possible 52 quarterbacks in running back target rate (7.4%) this season. I’d consider benching J.T. in an average spot, let alone against this Broncos’ run-stopping unit. Denver’s tied for second in defensive rush EPA on the year but it’s the league-leading blitz rate I’m afraid will completely derail the Colt offense.

Laghezza's Week 15 QBs and WR/TEs To Sit

Giants (vs Ravens) 

The last time we saw Tommy DeVito under center, we wish we hadn’t. Yes, the Giants will be back in the pizzeria cooking up New Jersey’s latest version of quarterback parmigiana. Audible sigh. This goes back to something I covered regarding toxicity in our Betting Life Newsletter (sign up today for free!). The incentive structure in the NFL is broken when it comes to wins, something we can usually count on as a desired outcome. However, when you have the worst record in the league with an enormous void at the QB position, you can’t be blamed for thinking about the organization’s future. Winning is firmly off the table. So we’ll get treated to some of the worst QB play this side of the Mississippi against the former pass-funnel Ravens. Yes, you heard that right, former. John Harbuagh and Zach Orr must be readers of mine. Baltimore really tightened up the flock against tough competition recently, ranking top-3 out of nowhere in EPA/dropback (+0.09), opposer passer rating (76.3), passing yards/game  (165.0), yards/reception (9.8), +20-yard completions (3), and passing TDs (1). Really impressive stuff from a truly dangerous team still playing for a division crown. Long story long, there’s a chance the Giants throw for fewer than their 104 yards against the Eagles. Sit every 16-point underdog wearing blue, even phenom Malik Nabers.

Steelers (at Eagles) — Brutal runout for the Steelers and George Pickens fantasy managers in general. This one writes itself. The star WR missed practice again after Mike Tomlin described his hamstring injury as “more serious than expected”. Uh oh. I didn’t crunch every number but you’d be hard-pressed to find another passing attack so reliant on a single player. Then consider the extraordinary talent gap to the WR2—and it’s easy to see how this goes completely off the rails for the Steelers. You’ll hear the siren song of “they have to throw to somebody” but avoid the temptation. The floor’s almost zero against one of the league’s toughest defenses. Then, if Philly gets ahead and can remove the run/play-action game from the Steelers arsenal, it’s a wrap.

In case this is our last start/sit article of the season, let me be the first to say Happy Holidays and thanks—it’s been an honor to work with all of you this season. Good luck and make sure to share those championship screenshots with me on X @JohnLaghezza

Gene’s Bold Prediction: Sit Tyrone Tracy Jr. 

Tracy Jr. has been holding on to fantasy relevance for dear life since the Giants' Week 11 bye. In Week 12 he was nonexistent, managing only nine points in full PPR leagues. Weeks 13 and 14 were good fantasy performances but only because of a touchdown in both games. Without those, his last two weeks would have been poor as well. Now the Giants face the Baltimore Ravens — who have been excellent at holding down opposing running backs, especially in the run game. They are coming off a bye week after a loss so they have definitely been locked in at meetings and during film sessions. They know they cannot afford another loss — or even a poor performance that still results in a win. The Baltimore offense has the ability to possess the ball for long periods of time and it has one of the best rushing attacks in the game. They have two MVP candidates who know how to keep the chains moving. Ask yourself this — are you willing to risk your fantasy life on Tracy jr. having a quality double digit day against THIS team… and more specifically THIS defense? Nah fam!

Gene’s Parting Thought For Week 15

Let the second season begin! If you are here, you are still locked in and alive. Remember that in the fantasy playoffs it does not matter if you are the top seed or the final team in the bracket (like I am in some of my leagues). If you're in, then you have the opportunity to make a run at the championship. This is the time of year that you really need to consider matchups. Is the team your player is on in the playoff hunt or are they positioning themselves for a high draft pick (tanking)? Knowing this information can help you make better decisions about streaming options. Sometimes all of the statistical data in the world cannot account for will. Make sure that the team or the player has “want to.” Do they want to win, do they want to be the best they can? That should steer you away from disappointment. 

John's Parting Thought: Let’s Go To The Circus

Simply put, winning weekly fantasy matchups is all about attaching yourself to the highest scoring games. When I’m in a pinch it’s my favorite picture when I need a thousand words. If all else fails, just head toward the circus music which currently leads right to Cincinnati.

I also charted the entire league’s average total points scored per game as another simple reference tool. This beauty will help you find the wagons worth hitching to in a pinch.