Welcome to the world's greatest Start/Sit column, where John Laghezza and Gene Clemons dig deep into their fantasy football bag of tricks with non-obvious, outside-the-box lineup advice. John's a numbers guy (who writes our newsletter), Gene is a literal football coach (who is on both our Tuesday LG show and Sunday morning SiriusXM program) — what more could you ask for?

Let's jump in.

Laghezza's Week 12 RBs To Start

Using a weighted mix of over a dozen different advanced stats on each side of the balI, I reverse-power-ranked every defense in the league — all to point fantasy gamers of any league size toward the right start/sit answers this weekend.

  1. Commanders (vs Cowboys) — Double-digit point spreads always make a great place to look for RB breakouts. In fact, this week’s spot versus Dallas could have enough meat on the bone for two. The Cowboys continue to tailspin into irrelevance, losing all four games since the bye, highlighted (lowlighted?) by bottom-5 defensive ranks in rushing yards/game (162.8), yards/rush (5.0), yards before contact/rush (2.21), explosive rush rate (10.9%), rushing TD (8), and fantasy points allowed/game to RBs (22.9). Yikes. Jayden Daniels has run less since his injury, opening the door for a returning Brian Robinson to hit his fantasy ceiling Sunday. Mix in the lack of a true secondary target behind Terry McLaurin, and even backup Austin Ekeler could pop as a strong FLEX play out of the backfield again.
  2. Buccaneers (vs Giants) — Fantasy playoff-run preparation aside, start charting the Giants' schedule. And get used to seeing them listed here every week. Big Blue hosts the Bucs off a bye, rested and likely returning star WR Mike Evans into the fray. None of this bodes well for the Giants. Newly-named QB Tommy DeVito has a major propensity for taking sacks and throwing picks. This often leads to short fields and tons of high-value fantasy opportunities for opposing RBs. If not for some touchdown variance, NYG might be more widely known as the worst run D in the league — they’re dead last this season in yards/rush (5.3), yards after contact/rush (3.59), explosive rush rate (12.5%), and +20-yard attempts (15). I’d even start both Rachaad White and Bucky Irving on the same team.

Laghezza's Week 12 QBs/WRs/TEs To Start:

  1. Chargers (vs Ravens) — Fantasy worlds collide. It’s the league’s ultimate pass funnel-Ravens in a classic get-wrong spot against the new and improved Chargers. My biggest whiff of the season looks worse for me every single week, as the Jim Harbaugh/Justin Herbert mind-meld levels up before our very eyes. What I thought would be a 1950s military academy-style offense in L.A. has totally transformed. Since Week 7, the Bolts not only rank top-5 in passing yards/game (256.4), yards/attempt (9.0), and explosive pass rate (14.5%)—they’re #1 in yards/completion (14.3) and +20-yard catches (25)! What? Yeah, that’s right. I’m bought in and fully on-board going forward. Changing your mind with new data isn’t flip-flopping, it’s critical thinking. Key up Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Will Dissly for a ceiling game against a bottom-3 Baltimore secondary.
  2. Giants (vs Buccaneers) — Intestinal fortitude, courage, bravery. Call it what you will, you’ll probably need a combination of all three for this week’s bold start. Yes, the Giants’ offense has stunk to high heaven so far this year. And yeah, the idea of moving to Tommy DeVito’s pretty terrifying on its face. That said, we should have a good throwing environment for NYG if you find yourself desperate enough this weekend. As underdogs, we’re assuming Big Blue will be playing from behind and you’d be hard-pressed to find a better matchup. Tampa’s allowed the most fantasy points/game to QBs on the season and it’s heading in the wrong direction — they rank dead last in opposer passer rating (127.5), completion rate (75.2%), and passing yards allowed/game this month. Fry up some cutlets, fortune favors the bold. Start Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson and even Tommy DeVito in SuperFlex leagues.

Gene’s Bold Prediction: Start Will Dissly TE, LA Chargers

After wondering if the Chargers could support one pass receiver in fantasy early in the season, they seem to have become more comfortable with who they are as an offense — and one of the beneficiaries has been Dissly. 

Since their Week 5 bye, he has only failed to receive five or more targets once. That means Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh believe in him. His production has not been consistent over this six game run, and last week was the only time he has found the end zone — but Dissly has a chance to have another double digit fantasy performance this week. Why? Because they face the Ravens. And Dissly will be needed on Monday night.

First, the Ravens do not give up big rushing yards to backs. They also have a pretty formidable pass rush, so holding the ball to allow downfield shots will not pay dividends. What should be available to the Chargers is the intermediate areas. Teams have feasted on Raven all season via the intermediate padding game and that could result in Dissly being a major factor in this matchup. 

Last week against the Steelers, Baltimore allowed Darnell Washington, who is essentially an offensive lineman in an eligible number, to catch two passes for 42 yards. Mike Gesicki and Tanner Hudson both found success in the Ravens' second matchup with Cincinnati. This is the time for Dissly to put back-to-back double digit fantasy efforts on the board. 

Laghezza's Week 12 RBs To Sit

  1. Panthers (vs Chiefs) — As a Chuba Hubbard drafter allow me to say: Mister Hubbard we thank and salute you for your services. Easily one of the best picks in this year’s fantasy draft, it’s finally a wrap for Panthers RBs (Taps plays in background). It’s tough enough as is for such an awful team to support a single RB1; but you can forget about two. Carolina announced rookie Jonathan Brooks will finally be active for Week 12, eliminating any realistic shot at fantasy viability for the Panthers’ backfield here on out. This weekend’s matchup certainly won’t help — the Chiefs’ defense clobbers the ground game, ranking fourth or better in EPA/rush (+0.16), rush yards/game (85.3), yards/rush (3.6), yards after contact/rush (2.42), +20-yard attempts (3), and explosive rush rate (5.1%). Panthers? Thanks but no thanks.
  2. Rams (vs Eagles) — I always try to get in at least one bold sit every week and boy, this one scares me. Kyren Williams currently stands as the RB9 on the season with a 97% start rate, yet has only one top-10 positional finish in five games off the bye. Perhaps more alarming for Williams’ forward-looking prospect is a threat to the bellcow role that has made him a fantasy RB1. For the first time since Week 2, Blake Corum secured 25% of the Rams' carry load and earned the only backfield target in a tightly contested game (it only earned him a 2.0 Utilization Score, but still…). Could Williams’ inefficiency finally start costing carries to Corum as the rookie gains familiarity in the system? Maybe. Again, the surging Eagles aren’t going to help you counter my argument — not a single RB managed over 100 rushing yards all season, or +63 rushing yards in seven straight games.

Laghezza's Week 12 QBs and WR/TEs To Sit

  1. Browns (vs Steelers) — Roller coasters can be fun but sometimes I just want to get where I’m going without worrying about hurling. In classic Jameis Winston fashion, we’ve had +300 passing yard efforts bookending a 3-INT nightmare. Good game, bad game, good game… What’s next? No, I’m not sitting my Browns’ pass-catchers on Sesame Street-level pattern analysis — I’m benching them because I’m avoiding Pittsburgh's defense like a plague. The Steelers slotted as a top-5 defense all year by any reasonable metric in the first place. And now, we’ve seen Mike Tomlin lean into his interior’s ability to collapse the opposing O-line by turning up the pressure dials. The result? Holding WAS and BAL, two of the league’s most prolific offenses to 42 total points and just 409 passing yards combined. Now, add shutdown corner Joey Porter into the mix and I’m tucking tail with my eyes on the horizon. Bench everyone in brown and orange… Jameis Winston, Elijah Moore, Jerry Jeudy, even my boy Cedric Tillman (sigh).
  2. Packers (vs 49ers) — Green Bay’s a perfect testament to the disconnect of how a quality offense in real life doesn’t always translate to the fantasy streets. Through ten games, GB’s averaging 388 yards/game on 6.3 yards/play. That should play. The problem? Fantasy’s all about opportunity and this pie’s being cut into too many pieces. I reached deep into my Trumedia bag for this one but it’s worth the perspective on the Packer’s distribution. GB posted three separate top-3 WR finishes so far this season… but not another single WR performance cracked the top-10. Even universally rostered Jordan Love only has two QB1 finishes. Are we really assuming he’ll add to that 20% hit rate against the Niners, who have only allowed a single QB to pass for over 270 yards? My best bet’s no. I’m getting aggressive down the stretch, holding my nose and benching my Cheeseheads.

Gene’s Bold Prediction: Sit Chuba Hubbard RB, Panthers

Don't get it twisted, the Panthers do not play the Giants every week. While Hubbard has been impressive this season, outside of the Broncos, what elite defense have the Panthers faced since their Week 1 implosion? The answer is nobody. That will not be the case this weekend. They welcome in a pissed off Kansas City Chiefs team fresh off a close loss to the Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs have not given up much in the run game, and if they surrender over 100 rushing yards it's normally a group effort. No one has trampled the Chiefs on the ground. That has led to lean days in fantasy for opposing backs. 

We have seen backs be able to cobble together good fantasy performances using pass receiving to supplement their rushing. Hubbard only has one game this season where he was a factor as a pass receiver. That was a five reception, 55-yard effort where he found the end zone against the Raiders. But this is definitely not the Raiders. The Chiefs have linebackers who can run with tight ends and running backs. They also possess a pass rush that can rattle a young quarterback who has struggled to stay upright in the pocket. This is just an overall bad spot for Hubbard to operate in. If you have other options you want to break them out. 

John's Parting Thought For Week 12: Let’s Go To The Circus

Simply put, winning weekly fantasy matchups is all about attaching yourself to the highest scoring games. When I’m in a pinch it’s my favorite picture when I need a thousand words—if all else fails, just head toward the circus music.

I also charted the entire league’s average total points scored per game as another simple reference tool. This beauty will help you find the wagons worth hitching to.

Gene’s Parting Thought For Week 12: Use Your Gut Wisely

At this point of the season tendencies matter. The data is fresh and it tells a very obvious story. Don't overthink it — players are who we think they are. Don't let a player ruin your week because you wanted to gamble in the face of all the information telling you to fade him. It is more than likely on a week like this, where there are a ton of teams on a bye, that the waiver wire is not going to offer any relief. Rely on the information available to you (and there is a gang of it at Fantasy Life). Crunch the numbers and use your gut for what it should be used for this time of year: eating!