Hello friends! And welcome back to the world's greatest Start/Sit column, where John Laghezza and Gene Clemons dig deep into our fantasy football bag of tricks with non-obvious, outside-the-box lineup advice. John's a numbers guy (who writes our newsletter), Gene is a literal football coach (who is on both our Tuesday LG show and Sunday morning SiriusXM program) — what more could you ask for?

Let's jump in.

Using a weighted mix of over a dozen different advanced stats on each side of the balI, I reverse-power-ranked every defense in the league — all to point fantasy gamers of any league size toward the right start/sit answers this weekend.

Laghezza's Week 14 RBs To Start

Eagles (vs Panthers) — Get your number two pencils out for some expert 4-D analysis. You ready? Start Saquon Barkley against the Panthers. Boom. How do I do it? I know, I know. What can I say, I’m a savant (bows). Kidding aside, lots of us are in a real pickle. NFL schedule-makers must’ve really had it out for fantasy gamers with such bye-week imbalance at the most critical point in our season. Six teams will be leaving holes in your roster, chock-full of winning RB fantasy assets like Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Brian Robinson. Carolina’s been God’s gift to fantasy RBs in 2024 — perpetual double-digit underdogs with a bottom-5 run stopping unit. So Barkley’s an obvious candidate for start of the week unless things go sideways early for Bryce Young. As much as I’ve backed CAR lately, they could easily get boat-raced by the Eagles, vaulting backup Kenneth Gainwell into streaming viability. A dozen mop-up touches behind an excellent O-line could be better than most options. Desperate times and such…

Bengals (vs Cowboys) — Going against the grain to get weird here with the same bye week information forcing our fantasy backs against the wall. No one’s been more of a must-start the last month than Cincinnati’s Chase Brown, with good reason. The fifth-round sophomore went three straight games shouldering 100% of his team’s touches in a pure bell-cow role. The thing is at the time, Cincy placed all hands on deck in a last-ditch effort to make the postseason. Well, that  striped ship’s sailed — and it’s reasonable to think Zac Taylor pumps the brakes on Brown’s excessive workload. Enter a ghost of fantasy past, Khalil Herbert. He not only played a dozen snaps for the second straight week, he actually touched the ball! Yes, I double checked. For reference, Khalil Herbert's lone carry last week was the first Bengal RB touch not by Chase Brown since Week 8. Could it be a trend? In a league or two, I have no choice but to find out. As bad as the Cowboys look lately, there’s a non-zero chance Herbert mops up a few meaningless fourth quarter drives with a good offense in garbage time.

Laghezza's Week 14 QBs/WRs/TEs To Start

Titans (vs Jaguars) — My weekly tradition of digging through waivers for whoever’s facing the Jaguars continues again in Music City. With the majority of dual-threat QBs taking the weekend off (Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Anthony Richardson, Bo Nix, and Drake Maye) lots of us haven’t needed a backup plan until now. With an improving Bryce Young facing the vaunted Eagles (gulp), we’ll need to turn our attention elsewhere. Don’t look now but Will Levis might be good at pro football (ducks). I know, right? Since returning from injury, Levis has thrown seven scores to just 2 picks, ranking 7th or better among all QBs in EPA/attempt, passer rating, and yards/attempt—with two top-10 fantasy finishes. No secondary’s worse than Jacksonville, with no signs of changing anytime soon. Calvin Ridley’s going nuclear but it’s Tyler Boyd I’ve added in my most frenzied spots. The Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TD fairy tale has gone on long enough (though I’d start him too where available).

Cowboys (vs Bengals) — The 2024 Bengals could have been dreamt up in a fantasy lab somewhere. This stat’s almost hard to believe. Since Week 9, Cincinnati’s game totals averaged an absurd 69 points per contest. What?!? If that sounds insane, it is. For you math whizzes out there, that’s 30% more than the next team, and almost 25 points higher than league average. Wow. And Cincy’s got very little, if anything, to play for. Queue up your Cowboy pass catchers against soon-to-be former defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo’s secondary. Cee Dee Lamb’s a no-brainer. The combination of Brandin Cooks and Luke Schoonmaker however, may be widely available to serve in a pinch. Should be enough love to go around, considering Cincinnati’s allowing +325 passing yards/game this month and we’ve got a 50-point game total on our hands—the perfect recipe for fantasy goodness.

Gene’s Bold Prediction: Start Elijah Moore

The Browns passing game has come to life since Jameis Winston's insertion into the lineup. The biggest benefactor of Winston's presence is Jerry Jeudy. Before Winston, he didn’t have a game with over 73 receiving yards. Over the past five games every game has been 73 or more yards, including a 142-yard and a 235-yard game. During this time, Elijah Moore has also seen his production increase, and although it has not been as meteoric as Jeudy it has been noticeable and fantasy worthy. 

On a week where you are looking for answers at receiver, when guys who you have depended on all year are on a bye, Moore has the chance to save your week in fantasy. He is only rostered in 17% of leagues and his matchup against the Steelers could be advantageous because of all the attention they will likely pay to Jeudy and tight end David Njoku. Moore has multiple games with eight targets during the Jameis run and this game feels like another opportunity for a big target day. 

Laghezza's Week 14 RBs To Sit

Jets (at Dolphins) — Why can’t the Jets have nice things? Any slim hope for a miracle run went flying out the window last week, with yet another dejecting loss to the Seahawks. That’s now eight of nine for anyone out there keeping score. To top it off, Breece Hall’s been battling injuries and just posted his lowest touch share of the season (52%). Knowing Hall’s type, he’ll continue to tough it out every weekend. However, without the postseason push motivating the coaching staff, I’m fully expecting New York to throttle his workload into a dreaded three-man backfield (with Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis). Nooooo! None of this even mentions how well the Dolphins have played defensively against the run lately, entering their own must-win scenario. Sometimes you have to ignore draft capital and flush a sunken cost to make the dance.

Cardinals (vs Seahawks) — With six teams on a bye you’re often starting anyone with a pulse depending on the format. But fortune favors the bold and no one came here for me to tell them to bench obvious floor plays like Cam Akers or Dameon Pierce. If afforded the choice, I’m sitting usual no-doubter James Conner. Arizona’s undergone a recent personality shift, relying solely on defense since the bye. Unfortunately for fantasy gamers, they’ve also more fully embraced Emari Demercado as a tertiary backfield option. Conner’s ceiling will remain limited by ceding some pass downs to Demarcado and for the first time last week, a lion’s share of goal-to-go snaps to Trey Benson. They’re facing Seattle who’s become a fantasy-avoid since their Week 10 bye—ranking top-3 in defensive EPA against the run without allowing a single +20-yard carry for three weeks. This game could end 9-3.

Laghezza's Week 14 QBs and WR/TEs To Sit:

Seahawks (at Cardinals) — The way both of these NFC West defenses have played of late, I’d outright avoid the entire contest if I could. Arizona’s gotten healthy on defense, playing with their hair on fire. Since Week 9, the Cards stand as the NFL’s top dog in points allowed/game and yards/play, surrendering just over 250 yards/game. Jon Gannon’s doing a great job of constantly mixing up post-snap zone looks, disallowing their competition to get comfortable—even with time to operate. Meanwhile, Geno’s struggled all season against zone coverage, boasting a negative EPA/dropback with more interceptions than touchdowns. Seattle posted just a single top-10 WR fantasy finish in four games and I think the downtrend extends at least one more week. I’m holding my nose and sitting the lot—Geno Smith plus (holds breath) DK Metcalf and yes, even Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Panthers (at Eagles) — I’m on record backing Bryce Young so I won’t stand for being accused of an obvious dogpile. That said, these Week 14 Panthers are set up to look a lot like the team getting demolished every seven days earlier this Fall. Carolina mostly succeeded against below-average defenses, and these Eagles are a horse of a different color. Seemingly getting the most out of every draft pick, Philadelphia’s truly separating itself from the field. During their eight game win streak off the bye, aside from giving up a measly 15 points/game, Philly’s allowing just 4.1 yards/play. For perspective, not a single other team held opponents under 5.0! That’s crazy—it’s not a small sample. Sit anyone in silver and blue, including Xavier Legette and Adam Thielen. On the bright side, look for any Panthers to get rage-dropped for a quick scoop-and-stream next week versus Dallas.

Gene’s Bold Prediction: Sit Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Over the past three weeks MVS has produced. He has four touchdowns during that time and has been a double digit fantasy scorer. With the injury to Taysom Hill many fantasy managers are thinking that MVS will be a fantasy winner. After all, who else do the Saints have to throw the ball to? Add to it that the Giants would seem to be an absolute smash play. It is at times like this, where everything is perfectly set up for MVS to go crazy in fantasy, that he will end the game with pedestrian numbers. 

Most of the receivers that have great games against the Giants do so via a bunch of targets and short to intermediate catches. That sets them up for the big shot over the top. MVS is not a difficult check as a short and intermediate route runner, so if he is just trying to blow the top off the defense, the Giants D can handle that type of strategy. They will make MVS prove he can be a CeeDee Lamb and guess what, he's not him. This is a gut feeling based on the type of game MVS plays and how it matches up against New York’s secondary. I'll try to find someone with less bust potential. 

Gene’s Parting Thought For Week 14

It's Bye-Pocalypse II and with six teams not playing on the final week of most fantasy football regular seasons the goal is simple; survive and advance! You have to do everything in your power to not only put the best players in your lineup but you must go the extra mile. Hit the message boards, DM every fantasy manager in your league personally. You must make sure that the managers who are out of the playoff hunt do not shut it down on you and allow others to get a free win that could cost you a playoff berth or a higher seed in your fantasy league. 

Too many times we have seen fantasy managers check out and leave players’ spots unfilled. The audacity! If you have to shame them into setting their lineups, then do it! Do whatever you must, by any means necessary. Get an honest final week out of them. 

John's Parting Thought: Let’s Go To The Circus

Simply put, winning weekly fantasy matchups is all about attaching yourself to the highest scoring games. When I’m in a pinch it’s my favorite picture when I need a thousand words. If all else fails, just head toward the circus music which currently leads right to Cincinnati.

I also charted the entire league’s average total points scored per game as another simple reference tool. This beauty will help you find the wagons worth hitching to in a pinch.