Well, friends, we had a ride, didn't we? From last week's Tyjae Spears call by Laghezza to Gene's Ray-Ray McCloud start and Alvin Kamara sit… we did some work. And we hope we were helpful along the way.
This is, if you haven't guessed it, our last column of the season. And we had a blast.
If you want top stay in touch with our thoughts on everything, come find us on X! Gene is @geneclemons and John is @johnlaghezza.
But enough about us. Let's get to the advice!
Laghezza's Week 16 RBs To Start
Jets (vs Rams) — We successfully faded New York all year, rightfully trashing them the whole time—only for me to turn around and recommend Jets in a most critical spot last week. Well, somehow it actually worked—and now we may need to go back to the well. Ah, the poetic cruelty of fantasy football.
Don’t look now but in perfect Jets’ fashion, we may finally be seeing the offensive continuity promised at the outset. Right on time, too (eye-roll). Someone apparently yelled “Contact!” and manually spun the Jets’ propeller when the calendar hit December. After not scoring +24 points all season, NYJ just dropped +27 in three of four. Woohoo. Aaron Rodgers not only posted his two best passing games of the year (628-4-0), the old man looked pretty spry… even rushing for 45 yards!
It’s been rough sledding for Breece Hall, posting just a single RB1 finish since Week 8. But he brought me to the party and we’re dancing together. Hall and the Jets surprised the fantasy world with a start last week, in which he scored but most importantly finished healthy. Worth noting, backup Braelon Allen left the game with a back injury that I highly doubt he’ll return from Sunday. Backfield opportunities narrowing down to a lone pair of tailbacks anywhere, let alone a potential shootout suddenly gets very interesting in a tight spot.
Hard not to love the LAR matchup to boot—the Rams’ interior defense couldn’t stop a snail race with a salt shaker on the ground this month. LAR’s 30th or worse in defensive EPA/rush (-0.07), rushing yards/game (155.8), yards/carry (5.6), yards before contact/rush (2.25), and +20-yard carries (4). In desperate need of double-digit touches? Queue up dual-threat backup Isaiah Davis as well.
Laghezza's Week 16 QBs/WRs/TEs To Start
Patriots (at Bills) — First off, quality fantasy gamers don’t bench their studs in the championship. For the rest of us who snuck into the finals streaming QBs all season, there’s still work to do. I generally target progression over everything, perhaps even matchup and noone’s been more impressive to me than the Patriots’ Drake Maye.
It’s worth noting that unlike fellow rookies Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix, Maye sat with a clipboard on his lap until Week 6. Despite it beginning a four-game losing streak, things started to click on tape (for me at least) against the Rams. Post-snap reads, accuracy and getting through progressions presented an initial challenge for the first-year QB, nothing out of the ordinary. Since then, the turnaround resonated from the video to the spreadsheet—we’ll take 17.5 fantasy points/game on +0.25 EPA/attempt, a 72.9% completion rate, and 35 rushing yards/game any day. Considering the lower tier weaponry on the Pats’ roster I’d consider this rookie campaign a resounding success.
As far as the Bills’ defense, they aren’t bad—their game scripts and stylistic approach just lend themselves to fantasy success. For starters, Buffalo seemingly scores at will, and in a variety of different ways. Push on offense or the wagons will circle you. Then Sean McDermott loves to deploy a Chamin-soft style of near exclusive 5-DB looks, featuring everyone’s favorite preventative two-high shell.
If the trend continues, BUF will allow Maye to work underneath where they’ve allowed more than 8 grabs and 95 yards per game to the slot. I just added Demario Douglas as a FLEX to go with Hunter Henry in one of my most desperate fantasy appearances ever. Fortune favors the bold (I hope).
Gene’s Bold Prediction: Start Michael Penix Jr.
Atlanta is turning to Penix looking for better, more consistent performance from the QB position. Penix was their first round pick for a reason — he's a big arm quarterback who has a level of athleticism that he never showed off at Washington while he established himself as one of the best passers in college. Look for him to immediately upgrade the vertical game. His arm strength, anticipation, and willingness to throw it deep has to be exciting for fantasy managers of all the Falcons skill position players. He is stepping in to lead a team with legit weapons at receiver and running back. If you're still alive in the playoffs but you do not feel good about your quarterback, Penix could be a great alternative, especially when you consider the team faces the Giants defense — they're missing several key members of their starting lineup, especially in the secondary.
Gene’s Bold Christmas Cookies for Santa: Start Toffee Almond Sandies
Santa is tired of the traditional cookie. Imagine going to countless houses and always seeing the same cookies. Spend a little money for Santa and show him that you care about him. The toffee and almond combination is always a winner, but when you add that to a buttery sandy cookie? It's an unquestioned smash. You know Santa loves his cold glass of milk; there’s no better way to enjoy a sandy than with a cold glass of milk. It is such a winning combo that Santa could spend a little extra time at your place and you may wake up and catch a glimpse of the big guy.
Laghezza's Week 16 RBs To Sit
Cowboys (vs Buccaneers) — Never easy to recommend sitting one of the main reasons you’re surprising the kids with Disney tickets this Christmas (shhhh). Especially over these last three weeks, the fantasy world has fallen in love with Dallas’ Rico Dowdle. And why wouldn’t it? He’s leading the NFL in rushing yards during the span, yet therein lies the rub. The trio of CAR, CIN, and NYG isn’t just uniquely horrific at defending the run, it also possesses one of the few underdogs to Dallas.
Expect the recent holiday party to go full Nakatomi Plaza, ending this weekend against Tampa in Jerry’s World. The Cowboys stand a snowman’s chance in a sauna of stopping Baker Mayfield. And without the proper game script, out the window goes Dowdle’s value. Remember despite being the league’s top rusher since Week 13, Rico’s still just the fantasy RB9.
And in case you haven’t noticed, Tampa Bay’s swarming around with their hair on fire since the bye. Fine, the competitions lagged a touch, I’ll give you a fair point. However, how often do we see smash spots left unfulfilled? The Bucs defense continues to play its best ball down the stretch. Are they regaining their reputation as an interior that can’t be run on? Not sure I’m quite there yet—but at +0.21 EPA/rush, and allowing just 69.3 yards/game on 3.9 yards/carry with a 3.9% explosive rush rate, TB’s doing something right. I’m getting out first on Dowdle.
Laghezza's Week 16 QBs and WR/TEs To Sit
Browns (at Bengals) — If you can remember a more collective sigh across the fantasy spectrum than the one for the Browns benching Jameis Winston, I’d love to hear it. Sadly, our fantasy unicorn’s heading back to Fantasia. What easily could and should have been the highest over/under of the entire season transformed into a lowly, sad horn sound. The worst. Sigh. Correction, double sigh. That leaves all the Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku folk feeling abandoned and alone with fifth-round sophomore Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center.
Face it. Cleveland’s season is over and the organization needs to know where they stand with DTR. If you’re into statistics at all, I’m literally not sure the argument for him could get any worse. Get your barf bag, people. Of 58 QBs with at least 140 attempts since 2023, the former Bruin ranks dead last in (drumroll)… fantasy points/game (2.2), EPA/attempt (-0.35), passer rating (42.6), yards/attempt (3.9), deep-shot rate (5.8%), touchdowns (1), and TD:INT ratio (0.1). Last. Yikes.
So it’s the stoppable force versus the movable object in another appearance of fantasy’s poetic cruelty. Just when it matters most, you’re a crazy person wanting to face the Bengals.
Gene’s Bold Prediction: Sit Jaxon Smith-Njigba
It's not that JSN has been bad — or that the Vikings defense has been lights out in pass coverage. There are˜ just a bunch of things to consider. First is the health of Geno Smith. He is coming off an injury that kept him from finishing the team's Week 15 game. If he is not in the game, it's hard to trust anyone; so even though he has been participating in practices, what will his status for Sunday look like? JSN is also in a quiet battle over the team's WR1, with DK Metcalf. It seems like one of the two can have a great fantasy performance, but not both. Then there's the Vikings defense — they can make things confusing for opposing QBs. Plus their offense can possess the ball and make it difficult to get into a rhythm offensively. With all of these factors, are you ready to put your fantasy livelihood in the hands of JSN? Nah!
Gene’s Bold Christmas Cookies for Santa: Sit Gingerbread Cookies
Yes, they are so much fun to make and decorate but that's the problem. They've become more art projects than they are yummy treats for Santa to enjoy in his travels. You know how many gingerbread men Santa has forced down his gullet over the centuries? So many times they have been adorned with overrated gumdrops and globs of icing all over the place masquerading as decorations. One can only imagine that Santa slides down the chimney and drops off presents in a home in Front Royal, Virginia, only to look on the table and see gingerbread cookies. His reaction is less than excited but because he knows that it is the creation of some seven-year-old he forces them down with only a glass of milk as his salvation. Stop doing Santa like this. Give the big guy some flavor dynamics!
John's Parting Thought: Let’s Go To The Circus
Since it’s our final start/sit article of the season, allow me to extend a warm and Happy Holidays to you and yours. The thought of connecting with so many cool people is truly surreal. Good luck in the fantasy finals and make sure to share those championship screenshots with me on X!
And in case you haven’t had enough NFL, be on the lookout for postseason content right here at Fantasy Life!
Simply put, winning weekly fantasy matchups is all about attaching yourself to the highest scoring games. When I’m in a pinch it’s my favorite picture when I need a thousand words. If all else fails, just head toward the circus music which currently leads right to Cincinnati…. until now.
I also charted the entire league’s average total points scored per game as another simple reference tool. This beauty will help you find the wagons worth hitching to in a pinch.
Gene’s Parting Thought For Week 16
If you are still here, congratulations! You're close to claiming a championship, but these are the times where we can be stubborn in our decision making. It's time to give up on that player you have essentially been carrying all season with little to no production. You can't be afraid to bench him. I know what you're going to say. “What if this is the week he goes crazy?” If “if” were a fifth of alcohol, we would all be drunk! Waiting for the “ifs” will get you beat in a championship game and you will have nobody to blame but yourself. If you are going to go down, go down swinging, not with the bat on your shoulder. Good luck and Merry Christmas!
