Welcome to the Utilization Report, where Dwain McFarland highlights his top fantasy football takeaways heading into Week 10.

The Top Fantasy Football Takeaways for Week 10

Let's follow the data to identify the top waiver wire options, trade targets, upgrades, and downgrades based on what we learned in Week 9.

Upgrades, Downgrades and Emerging Trends

1. Will the real Jaxon Smith-Njigba please stand up?

For the first 25 games of his career, Smith-Njigba averaged 42 air yards per game with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 6.7 yards. Those constraints resulted in a lackluster fantasy option averaging only 9.6 points per game. However, the second-year WR erupted for 37 fantasy points in Week 9, with 243 air yards and a 20.3 aDOT.

Over the last two games with DK Metcalf missing from the lineup due to a knee injury (MCL), Smith Njigba has posted 28% and 38% target shares. He has an elite 9.5 Utilization Score without Metcalf.

 

So, what does this mean for Smith-Njigba moving forward?

Admittedly, I was very high on the former first-round NFL Draft pick coming into the league. He is still young enough where his collegiate profile matters, making this performance noteworthy. However, disregarding his first 25 games is not a reasonable approach. Wide receivers own their aDOT, and 96% of JSN's sample tells us he is not the player we saw in Week 9 (at least stylistically).

It is also important to note that JSN was not a high-aDOT player in college. He flashed the ability to get vertical when needed, though, so it was nice to see that gear in his game against the Rams. At a minimum, that opens up the possibility of more spike games like this in the future when the right matchups present themselves. It is worth mentioning that Geno Smith has the pin-point accuracy and timing to take advantage of JSN downfield in tight windows.

On the one hand, Smith-Njigba deserves an upgrade in the rest of the season ranks because he is still an ascending player who has proven he can do something we haven't seen before. There is a *chance* that JSN is an outlier who can drastically bend the aDOT curve in his favor. On the other hand, I can't get behind an all-in approach on JSN, which likely puts my outlook below consensus.

Smith-Njigba also represents an excellent time for remembering the psychology of fantasy sports. We all want to love the next greatest thing–recency bias is huge (it's human nature). If you know that, you can use it to your advantage by having nuanced data-driven stances that allow you to profit from breakout and dud performances, depending on how your league mates react. Remember how everyone thought Isaiah Likely would be a high-end TE1 after Week 1? The way to win in fantasy sports is by resisting the urge to overreact except when warranted!

Smith-Njigba UPGRADES to low-end WR2 territory (that's significant, y'all!), but I would SELL HIGH if one of your league mates believes he is a WR1 after Week 9.

Note: If the Seahawks deal Metcalf before the trade deadline, JSN would upgrade to high-end WR2 status, so hold on selling high until after Tuesday!

2. Endangered Species: The Cheetah and the Penguin.

De'Von Achane and Jonnu Smith have poached Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle's targets since the bye week.

Over that three-game stretch, Smith has become a near-every-down tight end with a 76% route participation rate, and Achane has dominated the passing-down duties in the backfield at 68%. This is a dilemma that Hill and Waddle have never dealt with before in Miami. Historically, most of the targets consolidated around them.

Combined target shares for Hill and Waddle:

  • 2022: 31% + 21% = 52%
  • 2023: 32% + 23% = 55%
  • 2024: 23% + 16% = 39%

The Dolphins' offense has evolved, and Hill and Waddle's weekly floor has been lowered. While it is essential to recalibrate our expectations around the duo, they both still have astronomically high ceilings, as always. Remember that these trends don't always hold, so we could also see a big bounce-back from the duo, especially if defenses start paying more attention to Smith and Achane.

Over the last two games with these changes and Tua Tagovailoa back under center, Hill has a 7.2 Utilization Score, and Waddle sits at 4.8.

 

Those numbers suggest massive downgrades, but we must consider their multi-year history and talent profiles, which says don't overreact (yet).

Hill is HOLDING STEADY as a high-end WR1, but his weekly floor is now a WR3. Waddle still offers WR1 spike-week upside, but he DOWNGRADES to mid-range WR3 territory.

3. Chase Brown: I am not throwin' away my shot!

Okay, Brown didn't say those words, but his play did. Watching him play, I couldn't help but think of the words from the song "My Shot" from Hamilton (my daughter is obsessed with the musical).

"I am not throwin' away my shot

I am not throwin' away my shot

Hey yo, I'm just like my country

I'm young, scrappy and hungry

And I'm not throwin' away my shot"

Brown led the Bengals backfield in rushing attempts each game from Week 4 to 8, including a 63% attempt share in the two games before Week 9. That told us a breakout game was on the horizon, and as eight-point favorites against the Raiders, it was as good of a spot as any. However, a late-week neck injury to Zack Moss opened the door for Brown to handle more passing-down work, and the second-year back didn't disappoint.

Brown registered a 79% snap share, handling 90% of the rushing attempts. He posted a 63% route participation rate with a 14% target share. He finished the day with 157 total yards and a TD. The second-year back delivered a whopping 9.6 Utilization Score and 26.7 fantasy points.

 

Similar to the JSN situation, it is hard to say how Brown's role will look once his teammate (Moss) returns to the lineup. However, at the running back position, we merely need the coaches to agree to more playing time. Snaps correlate highly with fantasy points at the RB position because many of the touches are handoffs rather than targets, which WRs must earn by getting open and being on the same page as their quarterback (among other things).

Brown certainly didn't throw away his shot. He UPGRADES to low-end RB2 territory but is a borderline RB1 in games without Moss, who is out indefinitely.

4. The Bills have returned to their pass-happy roots.

Buffalo had a minus-4% dropback rate over expectation (DBOE)—a data point that accounts for the score at the play level—over the year's first six games. That kept the team's dropback rate suppressed to 50%, one of the lowest in the NFL. However, they have shifted to a pass-first approach over the last three contests with an 8% DBOE, leading to a 63% dropback rate.

 

Over the three-game span, Josh Allen has averaged 20.6 fantasy points with 280 yards and 2.3 touchdowns passing. While we can't be definitive about whether this trend will continue, the Bills traded for Amari Cooper, another hint that they want to attack more often through the air (why wouldn't you with Allen as your QB?).

While the Bills haven't committed to full-time roles for any of their wide receivers, if they stick with this offensive approach, it creates upgrade scenarios for everyone involved.

  • Amari Cooper: Cooper missed Week 9 due to a wrist injury. However, he remains the option I am most bullish on the rest of the way. The 30-year-old vet has proven WR2 worthy time and time again, and Buffalo hasn't given any other option a dominant route participation rate, but Cooper could break that trend. Cooper projects as a mid-range WR2 once acclimated to the offense, making him a BUY-LOW option. Based on fantasycalc.com, Cooper was moved for Nick Chubb, Travis Etienne, Keenan Allen, and Tank Bigsby over the last few days. Those are strong deals if needing WR help.
     
  • Khalil Shakir: The Bills refuse to give Shakir a full-time role (70% route participation), but he continues to make the most of his reps. The third-year WR is tied for the team lead in targets per route run (TPRR) at 24%. If the Bills are willing to air it out more often, Shakir can provide fantasy output despite a less-than-ideal role. Shakir UPGRADES to mid-range WR3 territory.
     
  • Keon Coleman: Coleman delivered two top-16 fantasy finishes in Weeks 7 and 8, but he doesn't play a full-time role (73% route participation), and his 16% TPRR needs to improve to unlock consistent fantasy potential. The NFL Draft first-rounder is a boom-bust WR4. Note: Coleman is dealing with a wrist/hand injury that could cause him to miss time.
     
  • Dalton Kincaid: Like his teammates, Kincaid is rotating (73% route participation), but his TPRR (24%) ranks second. Over the last four games, Kincaid has a 7.6 Utilization Score despite not managing a top-12 fantasy finish. Essentially, he has been the pre-breakout JSN of TEs, gobbling up low-aDOT targets and not adding much after the catch. However, that isn't bad for the tight end position; the primary driver is targets, and the former first-round NFL Draft selection has averaged seven per game over the last three contests, with the Bills passing more often. Kincaid is a BUY-LOW candidate who is due for a strong performance.

5. Lamar Jackson can support multiple high-end passing weapons.

Jackson is averaging 264 yards per game passing and has eclipsed 270 yards in six of nine games. The Ravens' passing offense is one of the best in the NFL, and it can support strong fantasy finishes by both Zay Flowers and Diontae Johnson.

Both receivers boast a juicy 27% target share (WR1 territory) for the season, and while they could cannibalize each other, we could also see this offense consolidate around two players. The tight ends continue to receive sporadic playing time, and Rashod Bateman is not a high-end target earner (16%).

That means we could see both players in the 22% to 25% target share range the rest of the way. Since 2011, we have seen three teams with between 250 and 275 passing yards per game with two target earners between 22% and 25%:

It is worth noting that most passing attacks didn't have two target earners in this range, but many didn't have two viable candidates. The big takeaway on this one is to keep an open mind about the bull case for Flowers and Johnson because of Baltimore's high-ceiling passing attack. Johnson's value has fallen since the trade, which is odd, considering he left one of the worst passing attacks to join one of the best. If he can acclimate quickly, Johnson is in one of the few offenses where the quality of the offense could offset a downturn in targets.

Recent 1:1 trades for Johnson that I would make if needing WR help:

Johnson is HOLDING STEADY as a high-end WR3 with WR2 upside and is a BUY-LOW candidate.

6. Jakobi Meyers might be a WR1 in an alternate timeline.

Meyers has a phat 32% target share in four games without Davante Adams. Over that stretch, he has an 8.1 Utilization Score and averages 14.7 fantasy points per game.

The Raiders are QB-challenged, which keeps our outlook on Meyers sober, but his Utilization Score comps tell us what life might have been like in a better offense.

  • WR1 to 12 season finishes: 39%
  • WR13 to 24 season finishes: 45%
  • WR25 to 36 season finishes: 16%

Meyers might have offered WR1 upside in the 2024 campaign in a high-octane offense.

Meyers UPGRADES to high-end WR3 territory and offers WR2 upside despite the Raiders' offensive woes.

7. Utilization Score Risers

This section will highlight some of the biggest Utilization Score movers over the last four games each week.

Note: Sometimes, the players are the same as the previous week, and in those cases, I might highlight a different player to cover more players. Be sure to check out last week's risers and fallers.

Running Backs

  • Tyrone Tracy | Giants (+2.2): Tracy has a 7.0 Utilization Score over the last three games with Devin Singletary back from injury. The rookie has handled 65% of the snaps, 59% of attempts, and has a 55% route participation rate. Tracy is a mid-range RB2.
     
  • Chase Brown | Bengals (+1.4): Brown has a 7.7 Utilization Score over the last four weeks, but that includes a 9.6 score in Week 9 with Moss out due to injury. Still, before Moss's absence, the second-year back took over the lead rushing duties with 60% over the previous three games before Week 9. Brown UPGRADES to low-end RB2 status and offers RB1 upside if he retains passing-down work when Moss returns.

Wide Receivers

  • Cedric Tillman | Browns (+3.0): Has an 8.9 Utilization Score since the departure of Amari Cooper. Over that stretch, he leads the team in targets (24%), air yards (33%), and endzone targets (36%). Tillman needs Jameis Winston to remain under center to continue to thrive, which could change with the turnover-prone nature of Winston's game. Tillman UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 status with Winston but is a SELL-HIGH candidate if you are concerned about Dorian Thompson-Robinson regaining the starting QB role. DTR would be a near-certain death sentence for Tillman's value (46% completion rate).
     
  • Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (+2.3): Ikhine has a 6.1 Utilization Score with a 96% route participation rate in two games without DeAndre Hopkins. However, much of that comes down to scoring a TD in each game. Fantasy points account for around 20% of a player's Utilization Score, and touchdowns dramatically impact fantasy production. Westbrook-Ikhine is a low-end target earner for his career despite multiple stints as a starter, and his 13% TPRR this year is in line with history. Westbrook-Ikhine has shown the ability to hang around on a roster, but we should be leery about buying into him in fantasy football–he is a WR5 or WR6.
     
  • Calvin Ridley (+1.3): Ridley has a 9.3 Utilization Score in two games without DeAndre Hopkins. He and Mason Rudolph have found a groove with the veteran QB targeting Ridley on 35% of his passes. Ridley also boasts a mouth-watering 45% air yards share. Ridley UPGRADES to high-end WR3 status with Rudolph under center, but he would plunge to boom-bust WR4 status if Will Levis regains the starting role. That makes him a SELL-HIGH candidate.

Tight Ends

  • Jonnu Smith | Dolphins (+1.1): Smith has a 7.9 Utilization Score since the Dolphins' bye week and ranks second in target share (22%). He has carved out a 76% route participation–up from 48% before the bye week. Smith UPGRADES to low-end TE1 status.
     
  • Taysom Hill | Saints (+1.1): The Saints are hurting on offense, with Rashid Shaheed done for the season and Chris Olave questionable with another concussion. Hill had his best game of the season in Week 9 with 16 fantasy points. His Utilization Score is trending upward, and it doesn't even do him full justice because it doesn't account for his rushing or pass attempts. Hill handled 12% of the team's rushing attempts in Week 9, including one that went for a rushing TD. Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller (IR) missed the game. Hill UPGRADES to borderline TE1 status.

8. Utilization Score Fallers

Running Backs

  • Devin Singletary | Giants (-1.7): Singeltary has a 2.8 Utilization Score since returning from a groin injury three weeks ago. He has fallen well behind Tracy in the pecking order, handling only 22% of the attempts. Singletary DOWNGRADES to RB5 status and is merely a handcuff option.
     
  • Ty Chandler | Vikings (-0.8): Ever since handling 61% of the snaps in Week 5 with Aaron Jones out, Chandler's role has declined. His snap shares fell to 12%, 4%, and 0% over the last three games. Cam Akers took over the primary backup role in Week 9. Chandler DOWNGRADES to free agent status, and he can be released.

Wide Receivers

  • Wan'Dale Robinson | Giants (-1.0): Robinson was always a risk because of his low-aDOT nature. He is highly dependent on large target shares, which have fallen off over the last two games (14% and 16%). Over the last four games, he has had a 5.0 Utilization Score, but he is still at a 6.2 for the season thanks to a 25% target share. Targets can be volatile in small samples, so there is no need to overreact. Robinson is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range WR4 option.
     
  • Dontayvion Wicks | Packers (-1.0): Wicks registered two more drops on Sunday despite a 100% catchable target rate in the wet weather. But that isn't why his score has fallen over the last two games (they are highly volatile, so they get zero weight in the Utilization Score). Wicks has had a 36% route participation since the return of Christian Watson. Wicks still leads the team in TPRR (27%) for the season, making him one of my favorite upside stash WRs–he would ascend to WR2 territory immediately if one of the starting Packer WRs suffered an injury. However, he is only a stash play as a WR5 in two-WR leagues and a WR6 in three-WR leagues.

Tight Ends

  • Isaiah Likely | Ravens (-1.0): Likely has a 58% route participation and 11% TPRR over the last four games, powering down his Utilization Score to 4.3 over that span. The third-year TE is as boom-bust as they come, with two top-five finishes and seven performances outside the top 20. Likely is a low-end TE2 with TE1 upside should something happen to Mark Andrews.

9. It's a Fugazi!!!

A few players pop up weekly in the fantasy boxscore but lack the underlying goods to back them up. They are best left for the next fantasy manager to worry about.

Donnie Brasco: "You should give it to somebody who doesn't know any better because that's a fugazi." 

  • Demarcus Robinson | Rams: Third-most added WR since Sunday. Don't buy it! Robinson is living on TD production with four scoring grabs in the last two games. However, he only has a 15% target share, which aligns with his 14% for the season. Despite multiple chances playing with quality quarterbacks, the 30-year-old WR has never been a high-end target earner. Robinson is a boom-bust WR5 at best.
  • Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | Titans: Eighth-most added WR since Sunday. Don't buy it! See No. 7 (Utilization Score Risers) for all the details. Westbrook-Ikhine is a WR5 to WR6.

Waiver Wire Recommendations

10. Priority waiver options that are available in most leagues.

Quentin Johnston | WR | Chargers (84% available)

Johnson returned to action in Week 9 and delivered 22 fantasy points on a 7.2 Utilization Score. We highlighted him as an early add last week, but if you missed out, he is still available in most leagues.

 

The Chargers have posted positive DBOE marks over the last three games (8%, 3%, and 2%), and Justin Herbert is dealing. Herbert has averaged 303 passing yards over the last three games.

Johnston UPGRADES to high-end WR4 territory and offers WR2 upside if the Chargers remain committed to passing the ball.

Xavier Legette | WR | Panthers (73% available)

In the first game after the Diontae Johnson trade, Legette notched a 93% route participation and 25% target share. Legette has a 22% target share and 34% air yards share in two games without Johnson, leading to a 6.8 Utilization Score. We don't have a significant sample, but here is how Legette's Utilization Score comps have fared:

  • WR13 to 24: 31%
  • WR25 to 36: 41%
  • WR37 to 48: 26%

Legette doesn't get the benefit of playing in a robust passing attack, but he is still a young talent who should be rostered in more leagues.

Legette UPGRADES to high-end WR4 status and offers WR3 upside.

Mike Gesicki | TE | Bengals (87% available)

Gesicki has a 7.9 Utilization Score in four games without Tee Higgins this season. Over that span, he has averaged 15.3 fantasy points in those games with a 19% target share. The veteran tight end doesn't get elite route participation (55%), but Joe Burrow looks for him when he is on the field. Gesicki has a 20% TPRR on the season, surging to 31% without Higgins.

With Erick All out for the season, we could see more playing time for Gesicki. Without any options beyond Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins emerging in the passing attack, the veteran TE is the favorite to finish the year as the No. 3 target-earner on the team.

Gesicki UPGRADES to high-end TE2 territory but is a mid-range TE1 option in games without Tee Higgins.

Note: The Bengals play again on Thursday in a sensational matchup against the Ravens–one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.

Jonnu Smith | TE | Dolphins (91% available)

See No. 7 (Utilization Score Risers).

11. Not available in my league, pal!

These players aren't available in sicko leagues (I feel ya), but believe it or not, most of the Milky Way galaxy doesn't play in a sicko league. If available, please allow us sicko-leaguers to live vicariously through you and prioritize these options off the waiver wire.

Taysom Hill | TE | Saints (63% available)

See No. 7 (Utilization Score Risers).

Justin Herbert | QB | Chargers (56% available)

Herbert has averaged 19.4 fantasy points over the last three games, with 303 yards and 1.3 passing TDs per game. The team has loosened the reigns on its healthy quarterback, upping its DBOE to 3% since the bye week. Before the bye, it was minus-5%. With Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston playing well, Herbert is back on the fantasy radar.

Herbert UPGRADES to high-end QB2 status.

Cedric Tillman | WR | Browns (42% available)

See No. 7 (Utilization Score Risers).

12. Stash plays: patience and foresight are required.

If you play in a sicko league, here are some names that are more likely to be available. They should not be sitting on the wire due to potential value in the future, but they likely won't be helping your fantasy squad in Week 8.

Ray Davis | RB | Bills (89% available)

Davis delivered 18.2 fantasy points while filling in for James Cook in Week 6, but he has been released in many leagues. In Week 9, he reminded everyone how good he is with a 63-yard receiving TD.

Davis resides in a quality offense, has proven he can play, and is the top option behind Cook. That makes him a priority RB5/6 stash option.

Cam Akers | RB | Vikings (94% available)

It appears that Ty Chandler has lost his grip on the Vikings' RB2 duties. Chandler's snaps have fallen in the last three games, culminating with zero in Week 9. Akers took all of the RB2 snaps against the Colts (23%) and handled 19% of the rushing attempts.

Akers is the new RB2 to stash on the Vikings' quality attack. 

Keaton Mitchell | RB | Ravens (90% available)

Mitchell can return to action but wasn't activated in Week 9. If something happened to Derrick Henry, Mitchell would see a spike in value. Justice Hill and Rasheen Ali would also figure into the mix, but Mitchell demonstrated big-play ability last season.

Mitchell is an RB stash play in sicko leagues.

Troy Franklin | WR | Broncos (98% available)

Franklin has upped his route participation rate to 55% over the last four games and ranks second in TPRR (20%) for the season.

 

The Broncos desperately need a WR2 to step up, and Franklin has chemistry with Bo Nix, thanks to their time together at Oregon.

Franklin is an upside WR6 stash option in deep leagues.

Note: Read the Utilization Bytes section at the bottom of this column for more waiver wire options. It is loaded with nuggets from every team, including waiver wire tidbits.

P.S. Remember to revisit last week's stash plays for additional options that could still be on your waiver wire.

More Fantasy Football Takeaways For Week 10

Quarterback Utilization Bytes

  • Drake Maye: Maye has averaged 49 rushing yards per game as the starter–and in one of those games, he only played 29% of the snaps. He ranks second behind Jayden Daniels in scramble rate (13%) out of all QBs with at least 200 snaps. Rushing is a cheat code in fantasy, and Maye has QB8, QB7, and QB13 finishes in his three full starts. Maye is HOLDING STEADY as a high-end QB2.

Running Back Utilization Bytes

  • Alexander Mattison: We have no clue what to expect from this unit. After reaching a 70% rush share in three consecutive games, Mattison saw only 45% against the Bengals, and Zamir White stole two of three attempts inside the five-yard line. Things change every time a trend emerges, which will likely happen again with offensive coordinator Luke Getsy fired after Week 9. Mattison DOWNGRADES to low-end RB3 status.
     
  • Austin Ekeler: Ekeler came through for fantasy managers, scoring 17.3 fantasy points with Brian Robinson (hamstring) out. However, we have seen a committee approach in two of three games where Robinson missed most of the action. In Week 9, Ekeler handled 47% of the snaps and accounted for 31% of the rushing attempts while posting a 44% route participation. Ekeler is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range RB3, but his upside in games without Robinson is an RB2.
     
  • Breece Hall: After only handling 57% of the rushing attempts in Week 8 due to a more prominent role for Braelon Allen (43%), the Jets returned to feeding Hall in Week 9 with a 71% share. Hall has a 9.0 Utilization Score with 16.6 fantasy points per game in four games with Todd Downing as the OC. Hall is HOLDING STEADY with a high-end RB1 profile.
     
  • Chuba Hubbard: Hubbard had two down games (11.2 and 9.1 fantasy points), but his underlying utilization remained elite. In Week 9, he got back on track with 21.2 fantasy points. The Panthers' offense will keep Hubbard from posting consistent RB1 finishes, but as long as he is in his current role, he is a solid RB2 option. This was a case of REALIZED REGRESSION.
     
  • De'Von Achane: Achane has an 8.7 Utilization Score in three games since the bye, thanks to a massive role in the passing game. He has a 68% route participation and 21% target share over that span. Achane UPGRADES to mid-range RB1 status.
     
  • Jerome Ford: Ford returned to action and played 45% of the snaps versus 55% for Nick Chubb. Chubb led the way on the ground with 75% of the rushing attempts, while Ford had only 9%. However, Ford led the way on passing-downs, posting a 54% route participation, while Chub was limited to 16%. Ford is a low-end RB4. 
     
  • Kenneth Walker III: Walker saw his snap share tumble to 50% in Weeks 7 to 8, which triggered a 6.1 Utilization Score. However, he snapped back to 76% and 8.2 in Week 9, playing firmly ahead of Zach Charbonnet. Walker is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range RB1.
     
  • Rico Dowdle: Dowdle missed Week 8 due to an illness, with the Cowboys coming off their Week 7 bye. However, he returned to action in Week 9 and registered his best Utilization Score (8.7) and fantasy performance (21.7) of the year. Ezekiel Elliott didn't travel with the team due to conduct, making it hard to know if this was the plan for Dowdle coming out of the bye or if he simply benefited from Elliott missing the game. MONITORING: If Dowdle holds onto the role we saw last weekend, he will move into the RB2 conversation.
     
  • Tank Bigsby: In Travis Etienne's first game back, Bigsby led the team with a 50% rush share, which is the role we predicted. We will continue to monitor this situation as Etienne gets healthier, but for now, Bigsby is HOLDING STEADY as a high-end RB3 with RB1 upside in favorable game scripts.
     
  • Travis Etienne: Etienne was eased into action, sharing the pass-down role with D'Ernest Johnson. The 25-year-old only handled 19% of the rushing attempts but notched a 10% target share on a 34% route participation rate. Etienne is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range RB3, but we need to see him overtake Johnson and leave this three-way committee behind. 

Wide Receiver Utilization Bytes

  • CeeDee Lamb: Lamb has a sprained AC joint, but the Cowboys are optimistic that he will play against the Eagles. If that wasn't enough to get you bummed, Dak Prescott suffered a hamstring that could sideline him for multiple weeks. Prescott was averaging 264 yards per game this year. Backup Cooper Rush has averaged 214 yards per game in six starts since 2021. When 100%, Lamb should still demand enough targets to remain a WR1, but he DOWNGRADES to mid-to-low-end WR1 status.
     
  • Courtland Sutton: Sutton leads the Broncos with a 24% target share and 39% air yards share. He has a 6.9 Utilization Score for the season, but he has been hot lately, with marks of 9.2 and 9.5 in the last two games. Sutton dominated the Panthers and Ravens with a 31% target share, averaging 20.7 points per game. However, now is an excellent time to consider selling Sutton if you can spare him. The injury carnage at WR means supply is low and demand is high, which is an ideal environment for selling. Only 17% of Sutton's comps were high-end WR2s or better, and you might be able to get a fellow league mate to bite on a high-end WR2 or mid-range WR2 price tag, which is a range you profit far more often than not. Sutton UPGRADES to mid-range WR3 territory but is a SELL-HIGH option.
     
  • Darnell Mooney: Drake London (hip pointer) was knocked out of the game, and Mooney notched his highest target share of the season (39%). The fifth-year WR finished the day with 19.8 fantasy points and a 7.9 Utilization Score. Mooney UPGRADES to high-end WR2 status if London misses time.
     
  • Davante Adams: Adams has a whopping 37% target share in three games with the Jets. While he and Rodgers have past chemistry, that is amazing. Adams UPGRADES to high-end WR2 status.
     
  • DeVonta Smith: A.J. Brown appears to have avoided a long-term knee injury, but it would be a boost for Smith if he misses time. Smith has a 30% target share and an 8.7 Utilization Score in games Brown missed or was limited. Smith is a low-end WR1 in any games without Brown.
     
  • Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy has 12.9 and 14.3-point fantasy performances in two games with Jameis Winston. However, he remains fourth on the team in target share (19%) since the departure of Amari Cooper. Jeudy UPGRADES to borderline WR3 territory but is a SELL-HIGH candidate, given all the WR injuries. Jeudy will carry zero fantasy value if Thompson-Robinson ever gets back under center.
     
  • Jordan Addison: Addison hasn't found consistent targets from Sam Darnold (17%). Now T.J. Hockenson is back, further crowding the offense. Addison came through 16 fantasy points in Week 9, providing a potential window to SELL HIGH, given all the WR injuries. Addison DOWNGRADES to boom-bust WR4 territory.
     
  • Keenan Allen: Since the bye week, Allen has had a 29% target share. That is what we saw early in the season from Allen before a heel injury limited his productivity. Unfortunately, despite a rebound in targets, Allen has scored only 5.9 and 7.6 fantasy points over the last two games, keeping his Utilization Score (6.3) in check. Allen is HOLDING STEADY as a high-end WR4, but you have to wonder when the team will turn the page and focus on building rapport between Caleb Williams and younger options.
     
  • Parker Washington: With Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis out and Brian Thomas. playing at less than 100%, Washington finished second on the team behind Evan Engram with a 21% target share. Washington could be the No. 3 option in the passing game the rest of the way, but the Jaguars passing game is shaky. Washington UPGRADES to WR5 status and is available in 96% of leagues.

Tight End Utilization Bytes

  • Cole Kmet: Since the bye week, Keenan Allen has soaked up all the underneath targets with a 29% target share. Kmet has a 2% target share. Target shares are volatile from week to week, but the Bears' passing offense isn't good enough to support four to five pass-catchers, with only 208 passing yards per game. Kmet DOWNGRADES to boom-bust TE2 status.
     
  • T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson didn't boom in the box score (5.7 fantasy points), but his 63% route participation was impressive in his first game back. We could see Hockenson ram up toward the 80% threshold we seek sooner rather than later. Hockenson UPGRADES to low-end TE1 status and offers high-end TE1 upside once fully acclimated. Now is the time to BUY LOW before the fantasy points flow.