Welcome to the Utilization Report, where Dwain McFarland highlights his top fantasy football takeaways heading into Week 12.

The Top Fantasy Football Takeaways for Week 12

Let's follow the data to identify the top waiver wire options, trade targets, upgrades, and downgrades based on what we learned in Week 11.

Note: as you read through the Utilization Report, you'll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it's more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.

Upgrades, Downgrades and Emerging Trends

1. De'Von Achane: The Little Engine That Could.

"I think I can, I think I can."

The primary concern around Achane this preseason was his workload, which many thought would be capped due to his size (188 pounds). However, history told us that backs as good as Achane typically find their way onto the field more, which is the story now unfolding in Miami.

Over the last four games, Achane has a 9.0 Utilization Score, averaging 22.4 points per game with RB2, RB2, RB24, and RB5 finishes. However, his workload got another bump over the last two games, hogging 66% of the snaps and 62% of the rushing attempts.

 

Mostert briefly left the game on Sunday, but his snaps have been equally dismal for two consecutive weeks at 15% and 14%. He is now splitting time with Jaylen Wright for the third of the pie Achane doesn't account for.

Achane UPGRADES to high-end RB1 territory and will challenge for the RB1 overall if his expanded role sticks.

2. Chase Brown has reached the coveted status of every-down RB.

Since the loss of Zack Moss, Brown has dominated the Bengals backfield with a sizzling Utilization Score of 9.9. He has handled 83% of snaps and 92% of attempts. He has also been highly active in the passing game, with a 66% route participation and 17% target share.

 

Over the three-game span, Brown has averaged 23.5 points per game on the back of 21 carries and seven targets per game. Averaging 28 opportunities in a high-quality offense is hard to top, putting Brown in elite company.

Since 2020, Browns' Utilization Score comps have dominated fantasy football, averaging 20.5 points. Every comp managed an RB1 finish, with 86% posting a top-six campaign. We could see the team expand Khalil Herbert's role as he acclimates, but at this point, Brown has plenty of room to give because his utilization is so strong.

Brown UPGRADES to high-end RB1 status.

3. Brock Bowers is the best rookie TE we have seen in 24 years.

Bowers is on pace to register the highest fantasy points per game for a rookie TE since 2000.

The record target share over that span was 23% (Jeremy Shockey, 2002), which Bowers is also on pace to beat at 26%. While it is hard to guarantee that Bowers will best that mark, he has been on another level in seven games without Davante Adams.

  • Routes: 84%
  • Targets: 30%
  • Air yards: 28%

Over that span, he has a 9.4 Utilization Score, averaging 17.4 fantasy points. The rookie has notched a top-six finish in five of seven games. His Utilization Score comps have averaged 16.3 points per game with 100% tallying a top-three finish.

Bowers is a high-end TE1, and he is just a baby. Enjoy, dynasty managers.

4. Matthew Stafford + Cooper Kupp + Puka Nacua = BOOM.

The Rams' passing attack has been on an absolute tear since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned to the lineup in Week 8.

Matthew Stafford

Stafford has averaged 291 yards and 2.5 TDs through the air over the four-game stretch. Only Jameis Winston (321) and Joe Burrow (317) have averaged more yards per game. Stafford has QB6, QB16, QB22, and QB5 finishes with 20.1 fantasy points per game, nearly doubling his average over the first seven games (10.6).

The schedule gets more challenging with matchups against the Eagles, Saints, Bills, 49ers, and Jets. However, with Kupp and Nacua healthy, Stafford has the weapons to challenge better defenses.

Stafford UPGRADES to borderline QB1 territory and shouldn't be available in 43% of Yahoo leagues–especially with bye weeks looming for Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Jayden Daniels over the next two weeks.

Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua

We now have three full games with Kupp and Nacua in the lineup together (Nacua was ejected in Week 9 for throwing a punch). Below is how they have fared in those three contests.

Cooper Kupp

  • Targets: 27%
  • Air yards: 26%
  • Endzone targets: 38%
  • Utilization Score: 7.7
  • Fantasy points: 19.9

Puka Nacua

  • Targets: 31%
  • Air yards: 38%
  • Endzone targets: 19%
  • Utilization Score: 8.9
  • Fantasy points: 20.7

Both receivers have been WR1-worthy over the three-game span, but the 23-year-old Nacua holds a 1.2-point lead over the 31-year-old Kupp in the Utilization Score.

Based on the last four years of data, Kupp's comps have finished as a WR1 38% of the time while landing in WR2 territory 53%. Nacua's comps have locked in a WR1 campaign 100% of the time, with 79% dialing up a top-six season.

Kupp is a borderline WR1, and Nacua is a high-end WR1. 

Kyren Williams (BUY LOW)

Since the return of their starting WRs, the Rams' dropback rate over expected (DBOE) has risen from -5% to -1%. That has pushed their dropback rate from 58% to 61%, slightly deflating the available opportunities for Wiliams. However, Los Angeles remains a run-balanced unit, and Williams' underlying utilization has been elite over the past four games.

  • Snaps: 92%
  • Attempts: 77%
  • Routes: 65%
  • Utilization Score: 8.3
  • Fantasy points: 13.7

Historically, Williams' Utilization Score comps have fared much better than 13.7 points per game.

  • Average: 16.1 points
  • RB1 to 6 finishes: 25%
  • RB7 to 12 finishes: 33%
  • RB13 to 18 finishes: 38%
  • RB19 to 24 finishes: 4%

Your local Williams manager could feel down after RB28, RB15, and RB25 finishes, making him a player worth inquiring about.

Williams is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range RB1.

5. Four wide receivers that continue climbing the ranks.

If you are a returning reader of the Utilization Report, you are likely familiar with the names below. Each pass catcher has already received at least one upgrade in the last four weeks.

George Pickens | Steelers

Since Russell Wilson took over as the starting quarterback, Pickens has soared to new heights. He has a 9.0 Utilization Score in four games with a 92% route participation and 31% target share. Over that span, he has averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game.

 

Pickens is averaging 7.5 more fantasy points per game with Wilson under center, and his Utilization Score comps have faired extremely well.

  • WR1 to 6 finish: 53%
  • WR7 to 12: 41%
  • WR13 to 18: 8%

Pickens UPGRADES to borderline WR1 status.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Seahawks

Smith-Njigba returned to his pre-Metcalf injury role (Weeks 8 and 9) with fewer downfield targets (8.4 aDOT), but his high-end target share remained intact at 31%.

 

There is still some risk for regression with JSN. We saw this same sort of low-aDOT/high target share performance in Week 2, and he faltered afterward. However, Tyler Lockett is a shell of his former self, with a 15% target share on the season. The 32-year-old veteran has a 10% target share over the last three games, and the door is open for Seattle to condense their targets around Metcalf and JSN in a pass-first offense.

We have seen Cooper Kupp and Amon-Ra St. Brown climb to astronomical heights in similar roles. Smith-Njigba has an 8.8 Utilization Score over the last four outings.

Smith-Njigba UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 territory.

Jauan Jennings | 49ers

In two healthy games without Brandon Aiyuk, Jennings has dominated with a 36% target share and 40% air yards share. He has a 9.5 Utilization Score, averaging 20.7 points.

 

The 49ers were without George Kittle in Week 11, so we must temper our expectations. However, we can no longer consider Jennings as the third or fourth option behind the other weapons in this offense–he is in the mix to be the 49ers' top target earner the rest of the way.

Jennings UPGRADES to low-end WR2 status.

Ladd McConkey | Chargers

With Justin Herbert healthy, the Chargers have posted a positive DBOE in four of six games since their bye. Before the bye, they were one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL, with a 49% dropback rate. That number has climbed to 58% in games since the bye.

That development has opened the door for McConkey, who upgraded to mid-range WR3 status in the Week 9 Utilization Report and is due for another bump with the Chargers sustaining their pass-friendly leanings. Over the last four games, he has had a 7.3 Utilization Score, putting him in solid comp territory.

  • Average: 14.5 fantasy points per game
  • WR1 to 12: 14%
  • WR13 to 24: 50%
  • WR25 to 36: 34%
  • WR37 to 48: 3%

McConkey UPGRADES to high-end WR3 territory.

6. Utilization Score Risers

This section will highlight some of the biggest Utilization Score movers over the last four games each week. 

Note: Sometimes, the players are the same as the previous week, and in those cases, I might highlight a different player to cover more players. Be sure to check out last week's risers and fallers.

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

  • Puka Nacua | Rams (+3.4): See No. 4 above.
     
  • Courtland Sutton | Broncos (+1.3): Sutton has a 9.4 Utilization Score over the last four games, boosting his season score to 7.3. Over that stretch, he has dominated targets (30%) and averaged 19.1 points per game, with Bo Nix finding his groove. The rookie QB has averaged 257 yards and 2.3 TDs since Week 8. Sutton's Utilization Score comps have averaged 14.5 points and posted a WR2 or better finish 63% of the time. Sutton UPGRADES to low-end WR2 status.

Tight Ends

  • Taysom Hill | Saints (+2.4): Hill has a 7.2 Utilization Score over the last two games, which doesn't account for his work as a runner and passer. With Chris Olave out, the veteran Swiss Army Knife has a 61% route participation and leads the team with a 25% target share. Hill has also handled 21% of the rushing attempts, leading to 11.5 opportunities per game between attempts and targets with Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller out. Hill and Alvin Kamara are the centerpieces of the Saints offense. Hill is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range TE1 until Olave and/or RB reinforcements return.
     
  • Travis Kelce | Chiefs (+1.2): Kelce has a 9.8 Utilization Score over the last month of play. He rarely leaves the field (88% route participation) and leads the team with a 30% target share over that span. Kelce is battling George Kittle and Bowers for the right to finish the season as the TE1 overall.

7. Utilization Score Fallers

Running Backs

  • Raheem Mostert | Dolphins (-0.9): Mostert has Utilization Scores of 2.1 and 0.9 over the last two games, dragging his four-week score down to 3.2. With Achane taking over the clear-cut RB1 role and Jaylen Wright forcing a timeshare for the remaining work, Mostert's snap share has fallen to 15% over the last two games. Mostert DOWNGRADES to RB5 stash material.

Wide Receivers

  • A.J. Brown | Eagles (-1.0): Brown is doing his part with a 29% target share and 43% air yards share over the last four games. However, the Eagles are the most run-heavy team in the NFL, with a -7% DBOE. Over the last four games, they have dropped back to pass only 45% of the time, and Jalen Hurts has turned 11% of those into scrambles. That combination of events has turned Brown's target share into 6.3 targets per game. Brown DOWNGRADES to borderline WR1 status as long as the Eagles remain a run-first offense (i.e., George Pickens range).

Tight Ends

  • Pat Freiermuth | Steelers (-0.5): Freiermuth has an 8% target share since Wilson stepped under center. He has a 4.6 Utilization Score over that stretch, averaging 6.3 points per game. Freiermuth DOWNGRADES to low-end TE2 status.

8. It's a Fugazi!!!

A few players pop up weekly in the fantasy boxscore but lack the underlying goods to back them up. They are best left for the next fantasy manager to worry about.

Donnie Brasco: “You should give it to somebody who doesn't know any better because that's a fugazi.”

  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | Saints: Valdes-Scantling thinks he will make me look bad for listing him here, but I will win this war over the long term. MVS has averaged 21.3 points over the last two games BUT only averages 3.5 targets per game (15%). He has come through on big plays, but not everyone will leave him wide open behind the defense for a free 71-yard TD romp. Valdes-Scantling remains a boom-bust WR5 and shouldn't be a priority on waiver wires.
     
  • Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | Titans: What is up with the low target earners with hyphenated names trying to make me look bad? Like MVS, NWI benefited from a long TD, thanks to lousy coverage. His defender fell down and allowed a 98-yard score. Since the departure of DeAndre Hopkins, Westbrook-Ikhine has stepped into a starting role (93% route participation) but averages only 4.5 targets per game (16%). He is due for massive regression. Westbrook-Ikhine is a boom-bust WR5.

Waiver Wire Recommendations

9. Waiver options that are available in most leagues.

Roschon Johnson | RB | Bears (93% available)

Johnson stepped into a more prominent role in the first game with Thomas Brown as offensive coordinator. He registered season-highs in snaps (44%) and rushing attempts (34%), closing the gap between himself and D'Andre Swift.

 

Notably, Johnson took over the two-minute offense and bested Swift inside the five-yard line. Those are two of the most prolific roles for RBs on a per-opportunity basis. We only have a one-game sample, but Johnson is worth a pickup to see if this trend continues.

Johnson UPGRADES to mid-range RB3 territory and would offer high-end RB2 upside if Swift missed time.

Elijah Moore | WR | Browns (92% available)

Since Jameis Winston became the starter in Cleveland, Moore has averaged 13.6 points per game with a 7.0 Utilization Score. Over that span, he is tied with Cedric Tillman in target share (22%), which has been enough, with Winston averaging 321 yards and 2 TDs passing.

If the Browns ever pull the plug on the Winston experiment, it will hurt the receiving corps, but Moore is a high-end WR4 with WR2 upside for now.

Will Dissly | TE | Chargers (77% available)

Dissly has served as the team's No. 1 tight end over the last five games. Over that stretch, he has a 7.4 Utilization Score with 10.8 fantasy points per game.

 

With the Chargers willing to throw the ball more, the veteran offers low-end TE1 upside.

Dissly UPGRADES to high-end TE2 status and gets a juicy matchup against the Ravens in Week 12. He is a strong fill-in option if Evan Engram, Kyle Pitts, or Mike Gesicki have been your starter (on bye in Week 12).

10. Not available in my league, pal!

These players aren't available in sicko leagues (I feel ya), but believe it or not, most of the Milky Way galaxy doesn't play in a sicko league. If available, please allow us sicko-leaguers to live vicariously through you and prioritize these options off the waiver wire.

Bo Nix | QB | Broncos (52% available)

Nix has averaged 257 yards and 2.3 TDs through the air over the last four games. When you pair that with his 12% designed rush rate (7th) and 8% scramble rate (8th), you have the makings of a QB with a solid weekly floor and an astronomical ceiling–precisely what we have seen over the last four games from Nix.

  • Week 8: 29.8 points (QB2)
  • Week 9: 18.7 points (QB14)
  • Week 10: 15.1 points (QB12)
  • Week 11: 28.8 points (QB3)

Nix UPGRADES to low-end QB1 status and gets juicy matchups against the Raiders and Browns (who Derek Carr roasted without any weapons) over the next two games.  

Jerry Jeudy | WR | Browns (49% available)

Jeudy erupted for 26.2 points in Week 11 and has WR31, WR23, and WR5 finishes since Winston took over as the starting QB. He has an 8.1 Utilization Score over the last three games.

 

With Winston averaging 321 yards and 2 TDs passing, all of Cleveland's pass catchers offer big-boom upside. Jeudy's Utilization Score comps have posted some impressive fantasy finishes.

  • Average: 15.6 points
  • WR1 to 12: 42%
  • WR18 to WR24: 52%
  • WR25 to WR36: 7%

While these numbers feel high, Jeudy's 19% TPRR aligns with his three-year average of 21%. Jeudy is the same player he has always been. However, that is enough for significant fantasy production when Winston is under center.

Jeudy UPGRADES to high-end WR3 status (yes, I am still taking this slow).

Quentin Johnston | WR | Chargers (59% available)

Everything we discussed about the Chargers offense under Ladd McConkey also goes for Johnston. Additionally, the second-year WR has a 6.2 Utilization Score since returning from injury in Week 9. Over that span, he is tied for second on the team in target share (21%) and leads the squad with 33% of the air yards.

 

Utilization Score Comps:

  • Average: 11.9 points
  • WR12 to 24: 8%
  • WR25 to 36: 45%
  • WR37 to 48: 37%

Johnston UPGRADES to boom-bust WR4 territory.

Christian Watson | WR | Packers (56% available)

The Packers WR corps is a challenging riddle to unravel. However, Jordan Love ranks fifth in passing yards per game (260), making it a situation we want exposure to on our bench.

Over the last three games, Watson has the second-highest route participation on the team (70%) behind Romeo Doubs. Over that stretch, he leads the team in target share (22%) and air yards (44%).

 

Ultimately, the team will likely continue to rotate their receivers, but Watson has entered the range where he offers boom-bust potential. We saw this in Week 11 when he notched 19 fantasy points on a team-leading 25% target share.

Watson UPGRADES to boom-bust WR5 status but offers WR2 upside if his role grows.

Taysom Hill | TE | Saints (46% available)

See Utilization Upgrades above.

11. Stash plays: patience and foresight are required.

If you play in a sicko league, here are some names that are more likely to be available. They should not be sitting on the wire due to potential value in the future, but they likely won't be helping your fantasy squad next weekend.

Cam Akers | RB | Vikings (83% available)

Akers makes this column section again this week because he remains available in too many leagues. He has notched 33% of the team's attempts as the clear-cut No. 2 behind Aaron Jones in consecutive games.

 

Akers is a high-end RB5 handcuff and would offer mid-range RB2 upside in the Vikings' high-quality offense should Jones miss time.

More Fantasy Football Takeaways For Week 12

Quarterback Utilization Bytes

  • Anthony Richardson: Richardson posted his best fantasy performance of the season with 28.2 fantasy points. He handled a whopping 29% of the designed rushing attempts and punched in two scores on the ground. However, those are the numbers we expect from Richardson. His work in the passing game is what unlocked a high-end QB1 finish. The second-year QB delivered 272 yards and a TD with a 9.1 average per attempt. Most impressively, he completed 67% of his passes. Richardson will likely experience ups and downs in the passing attack, but this is a reminder of how high he can finish in the weekly ranks when he does well as a passer. Richardson UPGRADES to borderline QB1 status.
     
  • Jameis Winston: Winston has averaged 321 yards and 2 TDs on his way to 20.8 fantasy points per game in three starts. We could see the team move away from Winston at some point, but as long as he is under center, he is a boom-bust high-end QB2.

Running Back Utilization Bytes

  • Aaron Jones: Jones suffered a chest injury in Week 10 that might have limited him in Week 11. However, it is also possible that the team wants to limit his workload moving forward. Over the last two games, he has a 5.8 Utilization Score with 54% of the snaps and 46% of the rushing attempts. Jones DOWNGRADES to mid-range RB2 status until we see him in a full-time role again.
     
  • Audric Estime: The old Sean Payton fakeout routine. He got us again. Esstime led the team with a 64% rush share in Week 10 but handled only 24% of the carries in Week 11, with Javonte Williams returning to head-of-committee status. Estime DOWNGRADES to RB5-stash status.
     
  • Breece Hall: From Week 8 to 10, Hall averaged 10.6 points per game despite strong underlying utilization (77% snaps, 62% attempts, 63% routes, and 11% targets). He was due for a positive regression game, and the floodgates opened in Week 11. Hall notched 31.1 fantasy points and continues to boast the third-best season-long Utilization Score at the RB position (8.9). Hall is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range RB1.
     
  • Javonte Williams: Williams returned to the RB1 role with a 53% snap share and delivered 18.7 fantasy points. His role on the ground was limited to 36% of the attempts, but Williams posted a strong target share (16%). Williams UPGRADES to low-end RB3 status, but this backfield remains hard to trust.
     
  • Kenneth Walker: Walker has dominated the Seahawks backfield with 74% of the rushing attempts and 59% route participation over the last two games. He has an 8.0 Utilization Score over that span, and his season score is still at 8.7. However, the third-year back has RB34, RB20, and RB14 finishes over the last three games, opening the door to inquire about his services. Walker is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range RB1 and is a BUY-LOW candidate.

Wide Receiver Utilization Bytes

  • Amari Cooper: Cooper returned to the lineup but only managed a 53% route participation rate. In three games with the Bills, he has a 3.9 Utilization Score, as a wrist injury has hampered his integration into the offense. Cooper still offers WR2 potential but DOWNGRADES to WR4 status until we see him in a more substantial role.
     
  • Brian Thomas: Thomas has battled a chest injury that has caused him to practice in a limited fashion over the last three weeks. However, he garnered a 25% target share in Week 11 and now gets to rest in Week 12 (bye). If Trevor Lawrence returns as the starter, Thomas offers massive upside to finish the season. He has a 96% route participation rate since Christian Kirk's injury. The schedule is challenging with two matchups against the Titans over the final five fantasy-relevant weeks, but Thomas could be a WR2 for the stretch run. Thomas is a solid BUY-LOW candidate.
     
  • DeAndre Hopkins: Over the last three games, Hopkins has a 62% route participation rate and a 21% TPRR. When you add that up, you get a 17% target share, which isn't enough to remain in the WR2 conversation in the 2024 rendition of the Chiefs' offense. Hopkins has a 6.4 Utilization Score over that stretch, which places him in the borderline WR3 conversation (DOWNGRADE).
     
  • Jaylen Waddle: Waddle has a 4.8 Utilization Score with 7.6 points per game since the return of Tua Tugovailoa. The fourth-year WR continues to get lost in the shuffle with the emergence of Jonnu Smith and Achane as part of the primary target tree. Waddle has a lowly 14% target share over the last four games. Waddle DOWNGRADES to high-end WR4 territory.
     
  • Malik Nabers: The Giants have benched Daniel Jones and named Tommy DeVito the starter. In 2023, DeVito averaged only 172 yards and 0.9 TDs passing in five games where he played at least 80% of the snaps. Those are not good numbers, but Jones has averaged only 207 per game this year and was good for only 191 in a Naber-less offense last year. So, it is tough to say how much DeVito's lack of passing production ties to his performance versus the poor supporting cast in 2023. Nabers DOWNGRADES to mid-range WR2 territory.
     
  • Tee Higgins: Higgins returned to the lineup and delivered 29.8 fantasy points with a 9.7 Utilization Score. The fifth-year WR is on pace for a career-high 29% target share. Higgins has an 8.7 Utilization Score on the season, averaging 18.5 points per game in one of the best passing attacks in the NFL. Higgins UPGRADES to high-end WR2 status.

Tight End Utilization Bytes

  • Jonnu Smith: Smith registered a season-high route participation rate (92%) in Week 11 and erupted for 28.1 fantasy points. In four games with Tagovailoa, Smith has a 76% route participation and 19% target share. Over that stretch, he has a 7.5 Utilization Score with 12.8 fantasy points per game. Smith is still available in 46% of Yahoo leagues and UPGRADES to the low-end TE1 tier.
     
  • Mike Gesicki: Gesicki's fantasy points fell off the cliff with the return of Higgins to the lineup. The veteran TE gave fantasy managers a donut in the fantasy box score despite his highest route participation of the season (77%). Gesiciki DOWNGRADES to high-end TE2 status.
     
  • T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson's route participation fell from 71% to 57%. Over his first three games, he has a 16% target share and a 6.5 Utilization Score. Hopefully, we will soon see him in a full-time role, but it is hard to predict how the team will handle his workload while recovering from ACL surgery. Hockenson DOWNGRADES to low-end TE1 status until we see more consistent utilization.