Welcome to the Utilization Report, where Dwain McFarland highlights his top fantasy football takeaways heading into Week 13.

The Top Fantasy Football Takeaways for Week 13

Let's follow the data to identify the top waiver wire options, trade targets, upgrades, and downgrades based on what we learned in Week 12.

Note: as you read through the Utilization Report, you'll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it's more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.

Upgrades, Downgrades and Emerging Trends

1. Can Bucky Irving keep turning a part-time role into RB1 goodness?

Over the last four games, Irving has averaged 16.6 points per game with a 6.9 Utilization Score as he continues to share the backfield with Rachaad White and Sean Tucker.

 

Historically, backs in that Utilization Score range have averaged 13.6 points, suggesting that Irving is due for negative regression. However, the electric rookie—who ranks fifth in yards per carry (5.4) for backs with at least 75 totes—has several factors working in his favor that tell us we shouldn't dismiss the potential for a dynamic finish.

First, while his comp group primarily finished as RB2s, there were a significant number of RB1 outliers. His comps offered midrange RB2 to high-end RB1 upside in 39% of cases.

  • RB1 to 6 finish: 9%
  • RB7 to 12 finish: 13%
  • RB13 to 18 finish: 17%
  • RB19 to 24 finish: 35%
  • RB25 to 30 finish: 22%
  • RB31 to 36 finish: 4%

Second, coming off of the Week 11 bye, Irving registered a season-high snap share (55%) in a game with Rachaad White healthy. While White kept the long-down-distance (LDD) work, Irving took over the two-minute offense (100%), which is much more valuable in fantasy. If that trend sticks, Irving's target volume will receive a boost.

 

Finally, the Buccaneers' schedule is chock-full with favorable matchups the rest of the way. Below is the fantasy boost provided to the RB position by Tampa Bay's remaining opponents.

  • Week 13: Panthers, 8.9 (1st)
  • Week 14: Raiders, 3.6 (8th)
  • Week 15: Chargers, -3.3 (29th)
  • Week 16: Cowboys, 3.3 (11th)
  • Week 17: Panthers, 8.9 (1st)

The Bucs should be favored in four of these games. Irving has only one tough matchup and gets a monster layup in Week 17, when most fantasy football championships are decided.

Irving UPGRADES to low-end RB2 status and offers high-end RB1 upside for the stretch run.

2. The Vikings passing attack is winning through diversity.

Over the last two games, Sam Darnold and the Vikings' passing attack have faced two quality defenses in the Titans and Bears, and something interesting happened. Darnold posted two of his best fantasy outings with 25.6 and 21.1 points.

Even more interestingly, Darnold did this without big games from Justin Jefferson. Instead, his secondary passing-game options stepped to the forefront—especially Jordan Addison. Over the last two outings, Addison leads the team with a 9.3 Utilization Score thanks to a robust 28% target share and 41% air yards share.

 

There is an old adage in the NFL known as The Rule of Three. Essentially, the rule goes like this:

  • One good receiving option can beat bad to average defenses
  • Two good receiving options can beat good defenses
  • Three good receiving options can beat great defenses

Despite the two tough matchups, Darnold has delivered 576 yards, four TD passes, and avoided throwing an interception. With the emergence of Addison and Hockenson to go along with Jefferson and Aaron Jones, even quality defenses will struggle to stop the Vikings' attack. SKOL!!!

While Jefferson is still the favorite to lead in targets, the newfound passing-game ceiling is a plus for the value of Hockenson and Addison. Addison's season-long Utilization Score now sits at 6.1, where 48% of his comps have collected a WR3 performance or better.

  • WR13 to 24 finish: 9%
  • WR25 to 36 finish: 39%
  • WR37 to 48 finish: 39%
  • WR49 to 60 finish: 12%

Addison UPGRADES to borderline WR3 territory and Hockenson is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range TE1. Darnold UPGRADES to low-end QB1 status.

3. Has Courtland Sutton morphed into an ALPHA WR1?

Only Ja'Marr Chase has a higher Utilization Score (9.8) than Sutton (9.7) over the last five weeks. Over that span, Sutton has averaged 21.2 fantasy points, delivering WR11, WR6, WR5, WR23, and WR2 finishes as the clear-cut No. 1 for Bo Nix.

Using the Utilization Comparison Tool, we can see that Sutton has dominated targets (29%), air yards (45%), and endzone targets (36%).

 

Sutton is on pace to record a career-high target share (25%). In five healthy seasons, Sutton has posted target shares of 13%, 23%, 18%, 19% and 17%.

Notably, the 23% share was in his second season in 2019 before the arrival of Jerry Jeudy via the first round of the 2020 NFL draft. The Broncos traded Jeudy to the Browns ahead of the 2024 season. So, Sutton is sitting at a 24% target share in his last two campaigns without Jeudy.

The sustainability of a 9.7 Utilization Score isn't realistic, but given Nix's evolution, his 7.6 mark for the season is more likely the floor. I used an asymmetrical comp group versus Sutton's 7.6 score (7.2 to 8.2) to account for the rookie QB's improvement.

  • Average points: 15.2 per game
  • WR1 to 12 finish: 33%
  • WR13 to 24 finish: 48%
  • WR25 to 36 finish: 18%
  • WR37 to 48 finish: 2%

Over the last four years, 57% of Sutton's comps posted a midrange WR2 finish or better.

Sutton UPGRADES to midrange WR2 status and offers WR1 upside the rest of the way.

4. The Jonnu Smith rocket soars to new heights.

Since the Dolphins' Week 5 bye, Smith has enjoyed a near full-time role, garnering a 76% route participation rate. Over that timeframe, he has morphed from a fantasy afterthought into near must-start territory with 16.3 points per game.

Since Week 6, Smith has led Miami's TEs and WRs with an 8.7 Utilization Score. No Dolphins player has been targeted more (22%).

 

Since 2020, 92% of Smith's comps have delivered a top-six season with 46% reaching top-three status. None of them failed to secure a top-12 campaign.

The Dolphins' cold-weather narrative will completely grip the fantasy and NFL news headlines this week with a game on tap on Thursday night in Green Bay (20-ish degree forecast). However, zooming out, the Dolphins should enjoy favorable temps in three of their final five games.

  • Week 13: at Packers (cold)
  • Week 14: vs. Jets
  • Week 15: at Texans (dome)
  • Week 16: vs. 49ers
  • Week 17: at Browns (could be cold)

Smith UPGRADES to mid-range TE1 territory.

5. Utilization Score Risers

This section will highlight some of the biggest Utilization Score movers over the last four games each week. 

Note: Sometimes, the players are the same as the previous week, and in those cases, I might highlight a different player to cover more players. Be sure to check out last week's risers and fallers.

Running Backs

  • Rico Dowdle | Cowboys (+0.7): Dowdle has a 7.3 Utilization Score since Week 9, averaging 12.8 attempts and 4.3 targets per game. Over that span, he averaged 12.1 fantasy points. The Dallas offense has issues, but it is hard to completely fail with 17 opportunities per game—Dowdle's comps managed an RB2 finish 58% of the time, and 21% were high-end RB3s. Dowdle UPGRADES to high-end RB3 territory.
     
  • Jaylen Warren | Steelers (+0.7): Warren has averaged 12 fantasy points with a 5.9 Utilization Score over the last four games. Najee Harris remains the primary ball carrier, but Warren has handled 31% of the rushing attempts and taken over the two-minute offense (67%). Over that stretch, he leads the backfield in route participation (41%) and target share (12%). When you add it all up, the third-year back averaged 13.8 opportunities (10.5 attempts and 3.3 targets). Since 2020, 50% of Warren's comps posted an RB3 finish, and 25% managed an RB2 finish—he UPGRADES to mid-range RB3 status.

Wide Receivers

  • Courtland Sutton | Broncos (+1.2): See No. 3.
     
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+1.1): JSN has an 8.6 Utilization Score over the last two contests since the return of DK Metcalf. The second-year WR continues to patrol the field underneath defensive coverages (6.1 aDOT) and demand a high-end target share (30%). Yesterday, JSN scored inside the five-yard line and ripped off a 46-yard gain on a tunnel screen against the blitz. Smith-Njigba is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range WR2—a mark that 56% of his comps have cleared.
     
  • Keenan Allen | Bears (+0.9): Allen might not be what he once was, and many of his fantasy points might come from "scam" targets underneath, but that isn't any different than JSN. Since the Bears' bye in Week 7, the 32-year-old has led the team in targets (29%) and tied for the lead in air yards (36%) and endzone targets (43%). Over that span, he has a 7.2 Utilization Score with 10.7 points per game. The more significant issue with Allen's fantasy points this season has come down to the erratic play of Caleb Williams, not his weight. With Williams playing well in Week 12, Allen delivered 22.6 fantasy points. Allen is UPGRADES to borderline WR3 territory but remains hard to trust until Williams becomes more consistent.

Tight Ends

6. Utilization Score Fallers

Running Backs

  • Javonte Williams | Broncos (-0.6): The Broncos offense is riding high, but the backfield is a complete mess. Over the last four games, Williams has a 5.1 Utilization Score, averaging 8.6 fantasy points. Technically, he is the lead back with a 49% snap share but only has 32% of the carries. That is a sharp dropoff from the 51% he enjoyed over the previous four-game stretch. Williams DOWNGRADES to RB4 territory.

Wide Receivers

  • Terry McLaurin | Commanders (-0.7): McLaurin has a 5.6 Utilization Score over the last four games, pulling his season mark down to 7.1. This drop could have been even worse if not for a very lucky 86-yard TD the Cowboys should have never allowed at the end of Week 12's contest. However, it is hard to get too down on McLaurin—much of his downturn has come since Jayden Daniel's chest injury, which has paralleled lower passing production. McLaurin DOWNGRADES to low-end WR2 status—a mark 64% of his comps have reached.

7. It's a Fugazi!!!

A few players pop up weekly in the fantasy boxscore but lack the underlying goods to back them up. They are best left for the next fantasy manager to worry about.

Donnie Brasco: “You should give it to somebody who doesn't know any better because that's a fugazi.”

  • Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | Titans: Westbrook-Ikhine continues to taunt the Utilization Gods, registering his third top-24 finish since taking over a starting role five weeks ago. He has averaged 13.3 points over that stretch—well above the 10.8 of his comparison group. Since 2020, 78% of NWI's comps have finished as a WR4 or lower. The blown coverage-TDs can't last forever. I will keep listing Westbrook-Ikhine as a FUGAZI until he duds or improves his Utilization Score. Nothing personal, just business, y'all.

Waiver Wire Recommendations

8. Waiver options that are available in most leagues.

Dontayvion Wicks | WR | Packers (85% available)

Romeo Doubs suffered a concussion, seriously jeopardizing his availability for a Thanksgiving matchup against the Dolphins. Wicks has been the odd man out when it comes to playing time recently, but he still leads the team in targets per route run (TPRR) for the season at 25%.

 

If Doubs misses the game against Miami, Wicks should see a significant bump in playing time, and he has the talent to boom in the fantasy boxscore.

Wicks UPGRADES to WR3 and offers WR2 upside in any game without Doubs.

Adonai Mitchell | WR | Colts (94% available)

Mitchell is a similar play to Wicks. Josh Downs suffered a shoulder injury in Week 12 and is considered week-to-week. That opens the door for playing time in the short term, and Mitchell has flashed high-end target-earning ability (27% TPRR).

Mitchell's upside isn't as high as Wicks's because the Colts' passing game doesn't carry the same upside as Green Bay's. Anthony Richardson has surpassed a 50% completion rate only once this season. However, he can get hot and was close to his second-consecutive strong passing performance if not for some unfortunate plays.

Mitchell UPGRADES to boom-bust WR4 territory and offers WR2 upside if Downs misses time.

Ameer Abdullah | RB | Raiders (75% available)

With Zamir White and Alexander Mattison out, Abdullah notched an 89% snap share and 8.5 Utilization Score.

 

His 17.5 fantasy points were a season-high for any Raiders back, and he could be in for a similar role if White and Mattison can't get right before a Friday matchup with the Chiefs.

Kansas City is the toughest matchup for running backs, so we can't get over-exuberant with our expectations, but Abdullah will be a borderline RB2 if White and Mattison can't go.

Jeremy McNichols | RB | Commanders (99% available)

Austin Ekeler (concussion) and Brian Robinson (ankle) suffered injuries that could open the door for a more prominent role in Week 13 against the Titans.

If one of the two starters misses the game, McNichols UPGRADES to mid-range RB3 territory. If both are out, he will enter the low-end RB2 tier.

Devaughn Vele | WR | Broncos (95% available)

Vele has operated as the Broncos' No. 2 wide receiver over the last three games with a 74% route participation. During that stretch, he averaged 12.8 fantasy points with a 6.0 Utilization Score.

 

While the Round 7 NFL Draft pick hasn't carved out a full-time role, his 21% TPRR has been impressive. The rookie could push for WR3 status if Sean Payton gives him more playing time.

Vele UPGRADES to low-end WR4 territory.

9. Not available in my league, pal!

These players aren't available in sicko leagues (I feel ya), but believe it or not, most of the Milky Way galaxy doesn't play in a sicko league. If available, please allow us sicko-leaguers to live vicariously through you and prioritize these options off the waiver wire.

Jaylen Warren | RB | Steelers (41% available)

See No. 5 (Utilization Risers).

10. Stash plays: patience and foresight are required.

If you play in a sicko league, here are some names that are more likely to be available. They should not be sitting on the wire due to potential value in the future, but they likely won't be helping your fantasy squad next weekend.

Will Levis | QB | Titans (88% available)

Levis has delivered three top-12 finishes in the last three weeks and demonstrated a newfound ceiling in the passing game.

  • Week 11: 295 yards and 1 TD
  • Week 12: 278 yards and 2 TDs

Over the three-game stretch, he has 20 rushing attempts for 69 yards. The second-year QB has accounted for 20% of the team's designed rushing attempts and has a 7% scramble rate.

Levis remains a low-end QB2 but offers QB1 upside and is worth stashing if you have bye-week challenges in Week 14. 

Note: Read the Utilization Bytes section at the bottom of this column for more waiver wire options. It is loaded with nuggets from every team, including waiver wire tidbits.

P.S. Remember to revisit last week's stash plays for additional options that could still be on your waiver wire.

More Fantasy Football Usage Takeaways For Week 13

Quarterback Utilization Bytes

  • Caleb Williams: The same highlights I am seeing posted on social media pointing to how Williams has arrived are the same types of plays that have led to his doom in previous weeks. I am not out on Williams as a passer long-term, but I am also not buying into his short-term outlook suddenly changing after a 340-yard passing performance against a suspect pass defense. However, since the team moved Thomas Brown as OC, Williams is scrambling more, which could be by design. The rookie has 10 scrambles for 68 yards over the last two games. Williams is UPGRADES to mid-range QB2 status.
     
  • Tua Tagovailoa: The Dolphins have torched two shotty defenses over the last two games, with Tagovailoa averaging 303 yards and 3.5 passing TDs. A cold-weather matchup against Green Bay on Thursday night could bring Miami back down to earth, but after that, they should play in favorable conditions in three of the final four games. Tagovailoa UPGRADES to borderline QB1 territory.

Running Back Utilization Bytes

  • Aaron Jones: Jones shared time with Cam Akers in Weeks 10 and 11 while nursing a rib injury but was a full practice participant all last week. Back to full health, Jones regained his elite role with an 8.9 Utilization Score. He bogarted 78% of snaps, 81% of attempts and notched a 58% route participation rate. He has an 8.6 Utilization Score in his last five healthy games—a range where 62% of comps have delivered an RB1 finish. Jones UPGRADES to low-end RB1 territory and is a BUY-HIGH candidate.
     
  • D'Andre Swift: In two games with Thomas Brown as the OC, Swift has a 6.6 Utilization Score with a 54% snap share. Prior to the OC switch, those numbers were 8.0 and 63%. His fantasy points have dropped from 15.2 to 12.9 per game, and his comps averaged 12.6 with 75% finishing as a mid-range RB2 to low-end RB3. Swift DOWNGRADES to borderline RB2 territory.
     
  • Jahmyr Gibbs: David Montgomery left the Week 12 contest with a shoulder injury. While he indicated he would be ready for Week 13, it is a short turnaround, with a Thursday matchup against the Bears. Gibbs has averaged 19.9 fantasy points in games with 55% or more of the rushing attempts this year. Gibbs UPGRADES to high-end RB1 status if Montgomery can't play.
     
  • Jonathon Brooks: Brooks played only 9% of the snaps and handled 11% of rushing attempts in his first action of the season. It is hard to know how the Panthers will handle Brooks' workload moving forward—it all comes down to their priorities as a team. Do they want a better look at the rookie, or do they want to reduce the risk of injury? Brooks is HOLDING STEADY as an upside RB5 stash but isn't a must-hold if you are looking for pure handcuff upside. Names like Tyler Allgeier and Blake Corum hold a higher theoretical ceiling in more potent offenses.
     
  • Kenneth Walker: Walker is due for some big performances. Over the last three games, he has dominated the Seahawks backfield with a 72% snap share. Over that stretch, he's scored 13.6 points per game, but his comps averaged 16 and notched an RB1 season 57% of the time. Walker is HOLDING STEADY as a low-end RB1 and is a BUY-LOW candidate.
     
  • Nick Chubb: Chubb came through with 19 fantasy points as the Browns bested the Steelers on Thursday Night Football. The veteran RB bogarted 77% of the rushing attempts but continued to give way to Jerome Ford on passing downs. Chubb remains a game-script-dependent early-down grinder—he is HOLDING STEADY as a borderline RB3.
     
  • Rhamondre Stevenson: Drake Maye's ability to keep games close has been a boon for Stevenson's fantasy value. However, the Patriots got shellacked by the Dolphins 34 to 15, revealing Stevenson's continued game-script-dependent nature. Stevenson's snaps plummeted to 40%, and his Utilization Score dipped to 3.8. Stevenson is HOLDING STEADY as a low-end RB2 option.
     
  • Saquon Barkley: Despite only having two carries inside the five-yard line, Barkley has averaged a whopping 30.9 fantasy points. It is rare for a running back to average that many points without getting force-fed touches from in close, but Barkley continues to hit home runs playing behind a high-end offensive line. Barkley is the RB1 in fantasy.
     
  • Trey Benson: Benson has carved out a notable role over the last three games. During that span, he has accounted for 29% of attempts and averaged 8.3 points per game. James Conner remains the clear RB1 for the team, but Benson is making progress. Benson is a high-end RB5 stash option.
     
  • Tyrone Tracy: Tracy has fumbled three times and lost two in the last two games. It is hard to know if it will impact his playing time, but the rookie back registered his lowest snap share (41%) since Week 5. Tracy DOWNGRADES to low-end RB2 territory until we see how the coaching staff responds. 

Wide Receiver Utilization Bytes

  • A.J. Brown: Brown compiled 22.9 fantasy points against the Rams on Sunday Night Football. DeVonta Smith didn't play, but that wasn't the difference—Brown saw his usual allotment of targets with seven. Brown maximized his opportunities by registering his second-highest YAC game (49 yards) of the season. Brown is HOLDING STEADY as a low-end WR1.
     
  • Adam Thielen: Theilen returned to the lineup but wasn't much of a factor (8.7 points) despite Jalen Coker not playing. The veteran has a 15% TPRR on the season, but we could see him improve his standing with Diontae Johnson gone. Thielen is a speculative WAIVER WIRE add in deeper fantasy leagues but shouldn't be near starting lineups.
     
  • CeeDee Lamb: Lamb has a 7.8 Utilization Score in three contests without Dak Prescott. He has averaged 14.6 fantasy points over that span with WR36, WR14, and WR14 finishes. Lamb is HOLDING STEADY as a borderline WR1.
     
  • DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins' route participation is trending in the wrong direction (69%, 61%, 54%, and 45%). You would think the veteran would get more run in close games like the one against Carolina, but that wasn't the case. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Justin Watson saw more playing time than Hopkins. Hopkins has a 6.3 Utilization Score with the Chiefs and trails only Travis Kelce in TPRR (23%) but needs more playing time. Hopkins' Utilization Score comps have delivered a WR2 finish only 6% of the time, most often finishing as a low-end WR3 (34%). Hopkins is HOLDING STEADY as a borderline WR3.
     
  • Jauan Jennings: Jennings led the team again in target share (27%), but Brock Purdy's absence held his fantasy performance in check. Jennings remains a solid WR2 in games with Purdy but TEMPORARILY DOWNGRADES to mid-range WR3 status if Brandon Allen starts.
     
  • Javon Baker: Baker saw his highest route participation rate (17%) of the season. He can't be anywhere near starting lineups, but there is a chance this marks the beginning of an upward trend. The Patriots are searching for options in the passing game, and Kayshon Boutte has failed to deliver in a more significant role. Baker is a WR6 stash play in SICKO leagues.
     
  • Jaylen Waddle: Waddle finally came through with a 28.4-point performance. The Dolphins' late-season surge is positive news for Waddle, a proven talent. Still, the days of Waddle as a clear-cut top-two option in Miami are gone. Jonnu Smith and De'Von Achane are now in the mix every week, which will make choosing your spots to start Waddle difficult. Waddle UPGRADES to borderline WR3 territory but is a SELL-HIGH candidate. Now is a good time to pair Waddle with another player to try and upgrade to a superior option like Mike Evans for the playoff stretch run. 
     
  • Malik Nabers: Tommy DeVito's 189 yards wasn't far off from Daniel Jones' average of 207. Still, the reality of residing in a low-voltage passing attack has hit for Nabers. The rookie hasn't posted a finish higher than WR22 over the last five games, averaging 12.1 points. His 8.0 Utilization Score suggests we shouldn't give up hope, with 88% of his comps finishing between low-end WR1 and low-end WR2 territory. A 36% target share is a helluva drug. Nabers is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range WR2.
     
  • Mike Evans: The Buccaneers didn't push it with Evans in his first game back, limiting him to a 66% route participation in a landslide victory. The veteran WR made the most of his opportunities, leading the team with a 29% TPRR, but didn't blow up in the fantasy box score (11.8). With matchups against the Panthers (twice), Raiders, and Cowboys making up four of his final five games, Evan is positioned for a big finish as the Bucs try to earn a playoff spot. Evans UPGRADES to borderline WR2 status and offers league-winning upside–he is one of my favorite trade targets.

Tight End Utilization Bytes

  • Cade Otton: Otton bombed with only four fantasy points in Week 12. While the return of Mike Evans will likely be highly talked about as the reason, there were plenty of targets to still go around. This was a game where Mayfield targeted 11 different receivers. There is still a good chance this is a highly consolidated offense, with Otton and Evans operating as the clear-cut top two options, as Evans and Godwin did early in the season. Otton is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range TE1.
     
  • Noah Gray: Since the loss of Rashee Rice, the Chiefs have used more 12 personnel. Over that span, Gray has a 55% route participation rate. However, his Utilization Score is only 5.1, making him one of many pass catchers outside of Travis Kelce, who *could* come through on any given week. His role over the last two games hasn't changed despite the 18.3 and 22.6-point outings. Gray is worth a stash in deep TE-premium leagues but shouldn't be a priority waiver wire option in most formats.
     
  • Luke Schoonmaker: Jake Ferguson missed Week 12 with a concussion, and Schoonmaker came through with 14.5 fantasy points. Unfortunately, he continued to share time with Brevyn Spann-Ford, which limited Schoonmaker's route participation to 59%. The second-year TE has a 21% TPRR on the season, which is encouraging, but we need more playing time. Schoonmaker is a high-end TE2 in games without Ferguson.