Welcome to the Utilization Report, where Dwain McFarland highlights his top fantasy football takeaways heading into Week 14.

The Top Fantasy Football Takeaways for Week 14

Let's follow the data to identify the top waiver wire options, trade targets, upgrades, and downgrades based on what we learned in Week 13.

Note: as you read through the Utilization Report, you'll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it's more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.

Upgrades, Downgrades and Emerging Trends

1. The Bucs offense is going to win fantasy championships.

Tampa Bay is fighting for a playoff birth with a 58% probability of getting in, per NFL.com. That makes the Bucs a highly motivated team with a favorable schedule, facing the Raiders, Chargers, Cowboys, and Panthers over the final four games of the fantasy season.

Baker Mayfield

Mayfield stumbled against the Panthers in Week 13, registering only 11.2 fantasy points, but he still ranks seventh in passing yards (253) and third in touchdowns (2.1) per game. The seventh-year veteran is on pace to register career-highs in completion percentage (71%) and passer rating (101.3), with his highest yards per attempt (YPA) mark since his rookie campaign.

Mayfield is the QB5 with 20.4 fantasy points per game, and with Mike Evans back in the fold and a soft schedule outside of the Chargers, he is positioned perfectly for the fantasy playoffs.

Mayfield is a top-five quarterback the rest of the way.

Bucky Irving

Since their Week 11 bye, the Buccaneers have made a conscious effort to give Irving more opportunities. Over the last two games, he has an 8.1 Utilization Score, leading the backfield in snaps, rushing attempts, and target share.

 

It is hard to imagine this trend reversing, considering how Irving has rewarded the team with 240 rushing yards, two rushing TDs, and 97 receiving yards. The rookie has averaged 6.5 yards per carry, with 5.1 per carry coming after contact.

Rachaad White continues to see playing time, keeping Irving from ascending to every-down status, but the rookie doesn't need a full-time workload to provide high-end fantasy production. His historical comps have reached RB1 status 58% of the time.

  • RB1 to 6 finishes: 8%
  • RB7 to 12 finishes: 50%
  • RB13 to 18 finishes: 33%
  • RB19 to 24 finishes: 8%

Irving UPGRADES to borderline RB1 status and offers high-end RB1 upside.

Mike Evans

Tampa was cautious with Evans in Week 12, restricting him to a 66% route participation, but they removed the governor in Week 13. Evans registered his second-highest mark of the season at 90% and dominated with a 35% target share on his way to 25.8 fantasy points.

Over the last two contests, Evans leads the team with an 8.7 Utilization Score—he has a whopping 32% targets per route run (TPRR).

 

Evans delivered a top-10 fantasy campaign last year with Mayfield, averaging 16.6 points per game. This year, his average in games with a 70% route participation or higher is 17.7. His historical comps averaged 17.5, with 38% notching a top-six finish.

Evans UPGRADES to mid-range WR1 territory the rest of the way.

2. Jakobi Meyers is balling and his fantasy playoff schedule is juicy.

Brock Bowers gets most of the headlines in Las Vegas, but what Meyers has done in seven games without Davante Adams is also impressive.

  • Utilization Score: 8.1
  • Routes: 96%
  • Targets: 29%
  • Air yards: 40%
  • Endzone targets: 38%

Over that stretch, Meyers has posted a top-24 finish in five of seven contests, averaging 15.1 fantasy points. His Utilization Score comps fared slightly better than that, with 15.9, and WRs of his caliber have demonstrated WR1 upside.

  • WR1 to 6 finishes: 7%
  • WR7 to 12 finishes: 44%
  • WR13 to 18 finishes: 22%
  • WR19 to 24 finishes: 22%

Meyers has been a solid WR2 since Adams's departure, but there is room for more if Aidan O'Connell can build on his 340-yard performance against the Chiefs. Almost half of Meyers's comps delivered WR1 finishes, but the majority received quality quarterback play.

Meyers has one of the best schedules in fantasy over the next four games. Every opponent ranks in the top 10 in fantasy boost allowed to the WR position.

  • Buccaneers: 4.6 points per game boost (ninth-most)
  • Falcons: 5.9 (fourth)
  • Jaguars: 6.5 (third)
  • Saints: 4.2 (10th)

Meyers UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 territory and offers low-end WR1 upside.

3. Can we finally count on the Bears passing attack?

Caleb Williams

Williams has notched QB4 and QB3 finishes over the last two games with 24.9 and 26.1 fantasy points. However, we have seen this act before. We thought Williams had arrived in Weeks 5 and 6 thanks to QB6 and QB1 finishes with 23.6 and 29.6 points. He averaged 8.5 points over the next three games, failing to register a top-24 QB finish.

Williams has demonstrated a high-end QB1 upside four times this season, but we must remember his seven low-end QB2 outings when setting our lineups.

Williams is a boom-bust mid-range QB2.

DJ Moore

Moore has delivered WR4 (24.9 points) and WR5 (23.7) finishes with Williams running red-hot over the last two games. Williams leads the team with a 6.9 Utilization Score and is second in target share (25%).

When considering his outlook the rest of the way, we must remember his rookie quarterback's Jekyll and Hyde nature. Over the last four years, most of his Utilization Score comps have finished between high-end WR2 and mid-range WR3 status, but there are also some cautionary WR4 finishes.

  • Average fantasy points: 13.5
  • WR13 to 18 finishes: 23%
  • WR19 to 24: 23%
  • WR25 to 30: 23%
  • WR31 to 36: 11%
  • WR37 to 48: 20%

Moore UPGRADES to mid-range WR3 territory but offers high-end WR2 upside if Williams can keep up his recent performance.

Keenan Allen

Allen picked up a heel injury in training camp that he reaggravated in Week 1, which caused him to sit out until Week 4. However, the 32-year-old wide receiver has looked healthy since the Week 7 bye, leading the team with a 7.3 Utilization Score.

 

Ultimately, Williams's play has held Allen's fantasy production in check over this six-game span. However, Allen has been the most consistent Bears receiver since the bye, and his Utilization Score comps fared slightly better than Moore's.

  • Average fantasy points: 14.5
  • WR1 to 12: 16%
  • WR13 to 18: 23%
  • WR19 to 24: 23%
  • WR25 to 30: 30%
  • WR31 to 36: 3%
  • WR37 to 48: 3%

Allen and Moore's comp groups each had 46% of the WRs finish in WR2 territory, but Allen's group had a higher ceiling, with 16% managing a WR1 finish. This feels counterintuitive given Moore's play-making ability and age advantage over Allen, but the Bears' eldest WR has averaged an additional target and 34 more air yards per game since the bye.

Allen UPGRADES to borderline WR2 status and offers WR1 upside if Williams stays hot.

4. Signs of encouragement for Isiah Pacheco fantasy managers.

Kareem Hunt held onto the backfield lead in Pacheco's first action since Week 4, but the split was close. Pacheco tied Hunt with 47% of the rushing attempts and trailed in snap share by only seven percentage points.

 

It is challenging to decipher what this means moving forward, but Pacheco could regain the lead role as soon as Week 14 against the Chargers.

Pacheco UPGRADES to mid-range RB3 status and Hunt DOWNGRADES to low-end RB3 territory.

5. Utilization Score Risers

This section will highlight some of the biggest Utilization Score movers over the last four games each week. 

Note: Sometimes, the players are the same as the previous week, and in those cases, I might highlight a different player to cover more players. Be sure to check out last week's risers and fallers.

Running Backs

  • Bucky Irving | Buccaneers (+0.8): See No. 1.
     
  • Tyrone Tracy | Giants (+0.5): Tracy struggled with ball security in Week 12, leading to his lowest snap share (41%) since taking over the starting role. However, the rookie back rebounded with a 71% snap share and 14.5 fantasy points in Week 13. Tracy has a 7.6 Utilization Score since landing the starting gig for New York. Tracy is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range RB2.

Wide Receivers

  • Puka Nacua | Rams (+2.7): Fully healthy, Nacua has played a full-time role over the last four weeks. He posted a 9.0 Utilization Score with a 35% target share during that span, leading to 20.5 fantasy points per game. Nacua is one of the best young receivers in the game, and 100% of his comps delivered a WR1 finish, with 78% notching top-six campaigns. Nacua UPGRADES to mid-range WR1 territory.
     
  • Adam Thielen | Panthers (+1.3): Thielen returned to the lineup in Week 12, and over the last two games, he has a 7.2 Utilization Score. Last season, we saw Thielen bond with Bryce Young, delivering three top-six finishes over the first six games before the passing game deteriorated. Young posted his best game of the season in Week 13 with 298 yards, and Thielen was the catalyst, leading the team with a 25% target share and a 9.3 Utilization Score. Thielen UPGRADES to borderline WR3 status and offers WR2 upside if Young gets hot.

Tight Ends

  • Jonnu Smith | Dolphins (+1.5): Smith has a 9.5 Utilization Score over the last four games, averaging 20.1 fantasy points. He leads the Dolphins with a 23% target share over that span and is now the TE5 on the season. Smith is HOLDING STEADY as a top-six option.
     
  • Mark Andrews | Ravens (+0.8): Andrews continues to split time with Isaiah Likely, but the Ravens' offense is vibing, allowing Andrews to parlay sub-optimal playing time into 14.4 points per game over the last four contests. The veteran has six top-10 finishes in his last eight outings. Andrews is HOLDING STEADY as a low-end TE1.
     
  • Sam LaPorta | Lions (+0.7): LaPorta has a 7.2 Utilization Score with an 18% target share over his last four games. Those numbers are much higher than his 6.1 and 14% on the season. The second-year TE has been one of the biggest busts in fantasy football this year, but his trend line is pointing upward over the last month of play—LaPorta UPGRADES to low-end TE1 status.

6. Utilization Score Fallers

Running Backs

  • Zach Charbonnet | Seahawks (-0.5): Kenneth Walker has returned to a dominant role with a 69% snap share and 72% attempt share over the last four contests, pushing Charbonnet's Utilization Score downward. The second-year back has a 3.2 Utilization Score over the last four games, averaging 5.5 fantasy points. Charbonnet remains one of the top handcuffs in Fantasy Land, but he carries little stand-alone value.

Wide Receivers

  • Garrett Wilson | Jets (-0.7): Wilson has a healthy 26% target share over the last four games, but the Jets passing attack has sputtered. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for under 186 yards in three consecutive outings. Wilson remains a high-end talent, but the newfound lows of the Jets' passing attack hurt his weekly floor. Since Adams joined the team, Wilson has a 7.7 Utilization Score—down from 8.7 without Adams. Wilson DOWNGRADES to high-end WR2 status.

Tight Ends

  • Kyle Pitts | Falcons (-0.5): Pitts has a 4.3 Utilization Score over the last four games, pulling his season score down to 6.1. Since Week 9, he has averaged only 3.4 fantasy points per game with a lowly 9% target share. Only 16% of Pitts' comps have notched a top-12 finish over the last four years, and most have been mid-range TE2 material. Pitts DOWNGRADES to the mid-range TE2 tier.

7. It's a Fugazi!!!

A few players pop up weekly in the fantasy boxscore but lack the underlying goods to back them up. They are best left for the next fantasy manager to worry about.

Donnie Brasco: "You should give it to somebody who doesn't know any better because that's a fugazi." 

  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | Saints: MVS has averaged 18.1 points over the last three weeks in a full-time role with New Orleans. He has a 6.0 Utilization Score as the Saints' primary deep threat with a 25.5 aDOT and 41% air yards share. That sort of profile can undoubtedly run into some random boom games, but it is rare to see staying power over a three-game sample. Valdes-Scantling's comps averaged 11.2 points per game, and 66% finished below WR3 territory. Valdes-Scantling is HOLDING STEADY as a boom-bust WR4.

Waiver Wire Recommendations

8. Waiver options that are available in most leagues.

Isaac Guerendo | RB | 49ers (98%)

If you have been holding your FAAB dollars to the end, now is your moment. Guerendo pulled Triple 7s on the injury slot machine this weekend with Christian McCaffrey (PCL) and Jordan Mason (high-ankle) heading to injured reserve. McCaffrey is likely out for the regular season and Mason will miss at least four games, leaving Guerendo as the new RB1 in San Francisco.

We have only seen Guerendo in a full-time role one time this season when he delivered 19.2 fantasy points in Week 8 with an 8.6 Utilization Score. Guerendo handled 66% of the snaps and 47% of the rushing attempts that week with Patrick Taylor and Deebo Samuel acting as the RB2 and RB3 options.

Guerendo UPGRADES to low-end RB2 territory and could quickly climb to RB1 status. The rookie is a MUST-ADD—don't be afraid to block your local CMC manager if they are in the playoff hunt!

Bonus: Patrick Taylor UPGRADES to RB5 stash status in deep leagues.

Parker Washington | WR | Jaguars (99%)

With Gabriel Davis on IR, Washington stepped into a starting role and delivered 22.3 fantasy points. The second-year sixth-round NFL Draft pick led the team in targets (29%) and notched a 9.7 Utilization Score.

Trevor Lawrence suffered a concussion, and the Jaguars could shut down their starting signal caller. Jacksonville's playoff chances are now less than 1%. Lawrence was already battling a non-throwing shoulder injury, and it would make sense for the team to turn their attention to 2025, leaving Mac Jones as the starter.

Washington's high-end Week 13 production makes him worth adding in deeper leagues—especially if you are bye-week challenged. However, the quarterback situation, a below-average schedule, and target competition from Brian Thomas and Evan Engram make a late-season explosion unlikely.

Washington UPGRADES to mid-range WR4 territory.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | Titans (83%)

Westbrook-Ikhine has found his way into the fugazi section of this article over the last three weeks. His eight touchdowns on 20 receptions are due for massive regression. However, the 27-year-old has improved his Utilization Score by 1.3 points over the last month and has a 6.2 mark since taking over a starting role. Over that stretch, he has an 18% target share, eclipsing 20% in three of six starts.

Most of NWI's comps have finished as a WR4 or lower (62%), but 28% notched a WR3 campaign, and 10% managed a WR2 season. With matchups against the Jaguars, Bengals, Colts, and Jaguars, Westbrook-Ikhine has a shot at making noise down the stretch, even if his touchdowns regress.

Westbrook-Ikhine UPGRADES to boom-bust WR4 territory. 

Juwan Johnson | TE | Saints (97%)

Taysom Hill is out for the season, leaving the Saints without many pass-catching options. With Hill injured, Johnson collected a season-highs in multiple utilization categories.

  • Utilization Score: 7.1
  • Routes: 79%
  • Targets: 19%
  • Air yards: 21%

Johnson UPGRADES to mid-range TE2 territory and offers low-end TE1 upside if his route participation holds.

Aidan O'Connell | QB | Raiders (98% available)

O'Connell stepped into the lineup against a tough Chiefs pass defense and tossed the rock around the yard for 340 yards and two touchdowns. While throwing for over 300 yards every week isn't something we should expect, the second-year QB has reached 270 yards or higher in 25% of games where he played 90% of the snaps.

Over the next three games, he will face the Buccaneers, Falcons, and Jaguars—one of the better schedules over that stretch.

O'Connell is a low-end QB2 but offers low-end QB1 upside in Week 14 against the Bucs if you have bye-week challenges.

9. Not available in my league, pal!

These players aren't available in sicko leagues (I feel ya), but believe it or not, most of the Milky Way galaxy doesn't play in a sicko league. If available, please allow us sicko-leaguers to live vicariously through you and prioritize these options off the waiver wire.

Russell Wilson | QB | Steelers (65% available)

Wilson has averaged 271 yards per game and has eclipsed 260 yards in four of six starts. He has averaged 18.4 fantasy points with only one dud in Week 11 (7.3 points) while finishing inside the top 10 three times.

Wilson is a high-end QB2 who offers high-end QB1 upside for those with bye week challenges.

Adam Thielen | WR | Panthers (69%)

See Utilization Score Risers.

10. Stash plays: patience and foresight are required.

If you play in a sicko league, here are some names that are more likely to be available. They should not be sitting on the wire due to potential value in the future, but they likely won't be helping your fantasy squad next weekend.

Kimani Vidal | RB | Chargers (84% available)

With J.K. Dobbins out for at least the next three games, Vidal is the RB2 behind Gus Edwards for the Chargers. Vidal registered a 27% target share and handled 24% of the rushing attempts in Week 13.

Gus Edwards ranks 51 out of 57 backs in yards per carry (3.4) and is 55th in missed tackles forced per attempt (7%), which leaves the door open for Vidal to earn a more significant role. He is the more natural pass-catcher out of the backfield, and his fresh young legs could add more pop to the ground attack.

Vidal is an RB5 with a path to RB2 upside and should be stashed in deep leagues. 

Blake Corum | RB | Rams (86% available)

Corum notched season-highs in snaps (33%), attempts (28%) and routes (23%) in Week 13 against the Saints. The rookie offers little stand-alone value at the moment, but that could change if the Rams continue to give him more opportunities. If something happened to Kyren Williams, Corum would offer RB1 upside.

Corum is a high-end RB5 stash play with RB1 upside if Williams goes down.

P.S. Remember to revisit last week's stash plays for additional options that could still be on your waiver wire.

More Fantasy Football Takeaways From Week 13

Running Back Utilization Bytes

  • Aaron Jones: Jones rejoined every-down status in Week 12 but fumbled twice early in Week 12, leading to a 51% snap share and 42% attempt share. We don't know if the playing time reduction will continue, but Jones gets a SLIGHT DOWNGRADE to mid-range RB2 status until we find out.
     
  • Bijan Robinson: Robinson has a sky-high 9.6 Utilization Score over the last four games. Over that stretch, he has reached 24-plus opportunities in three of four games and averaged 21.7 points—Robinson UPGRADES to high-end RB1 territory.
     
  • Chuba Hubbard: Hubbard posted a monster snap share (79%) again in Week 13, but he registered his lowest rush attempt share (67%) since Week 2. Of course, that was also a strong mark, but Jonathon Brooks was more involved, and the rookie's workload could grow. Hubbard DOWNGRADES to low-end RB2 territory.
     
  • Jonathon Brooks: Brooks doubled his playing time and tripled his rushing attempt share from 11% to 33% in his second outing. He was also actively targeted with a 50% TPRR on his handful of pass plays. He finished the day with six attempts and three targets. Brooks UPGRADES to RB4 status.
     
  • Rico Dowdle: Dowdle has taken over the clear-cut RB1 for the Cowboys over the last two games with a 67% snap share and 71% attempt share. He has averaged 17.1 points with an 8.2 Utilization Score in those two games. Dowdle UPGRADES to the low-end RB2 tier.
     
  • Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne: Etienne led the Jaguars in snaps (52%) and rushing attempts (59%) in their first game out of the bye. Interestingly, he finished behind Bigsby in route participation rate at 38%. Getting excited about the Jaguars backfield takes a lot of wishful thinking at this point, but Etienne appears to have a slight edge on the RB1 duties. Etienne UPGRADES to high-end RB3 status and Bigsby DOWNGRADES to RB4 territory.

Wide Receiver Utilization Bytes

  • Amari Cooper: Despite a bye week entering Week 13 without an injury designation, Cooper remained in a rotational role (63% route participation), the Buffalo Bills way this year. Cooper posted a healthy 25% TPRR but needs more playing time to have a shot at the WR2 upside we hoped for when he was traded. Cooper DOWNGRADES to the WR4 tier.
     
  • Brandin Cooks: Cooks returned to the lineup with a 54% route participation but posted a healthy 30% TPRR. None of the other receiving options behind CeeDee Lamb have carved out a significant target share, leaving the door open for the veteran to step into a more substantial role while the Cowboys playoff hopes are on life support. Cooks is available in 90% of Yahoo leagues, making him a WAIVER WIRE stash option in deeper formats.
     
  • Brian Thomas: Thomas has looked healthy over the last two games, averaging 16.1 points. He has a 25% target share and 39% air yards share with an 8.0 Utilization Score. The Jaguars have a below-average schedule the rest of the way, and there is a chance they will shut down Lawrence. Thomas looks like a certified baller, but those factors keep his rest-of-season outlook from inflating. Thomas is HOLDING STEADY as a borderline WR2.
     
  • Jauan Jennings: Bad weather conditions derailed the 49ers passing attack in Week 13 against the Bills, but Jennings posted another big target share (29%). Jennings leads the team with a 7.9 Utilization Score and 32% target share over the last four games. Jennings is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range WR2 and is a BUY-LOW candidate if your league trade deadline hasn't passed.
     
  • Ladd McConkey: McConkey posted a monster target share (52%) on his way to 20.7 fantasy points and a 9.1 Utilization Score against the Falcons. The rookie receiver has a 7.5 Utilization Score over the last four games, averaging 15.1 points. Over the last four years, 57% of McConkey's comps have posted a WR2 finish, while 18% managed a top-12 campaign and 24% were WR3s. McConkey UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 territory.
     
  • Marvin Harrison: Harrison posted his highest Utilization Score of the season (9.0) with a 29% target share and 56% air yards share. His Utilization Score for the season now rests at 6.6. His historical comps have notched a WR2 campaign 30% of the time, but the majority have been WR3s at 64%. Harrison is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range WR3.
     
  • Sterling Shepard: Since the bye week, Shepard has had a 22% target share in two games—second on the team behind Mike Evans. The veteran slot WR hasn't been able to make much of his opportunities, averaging only 7.4 points, but the Buccaneers' schedule is highly favorable down the stretch. Shepard UPGRADES to low-end WR4 territory and is available in 95% of Yahoo leagues.
     
  • Tank Dell: Dell has a 5.3 Utilization Score and 17% target share since Nico Collins returned to the lineup in Week 11. He has averaged only 7.8 points with WR38, WR29, and WR69 finishes. Dell DOWNGRADES to low-end WR4 territory.

Tight End Utilization Bytes

  • Cade Otton: Shepard is challenging Otton for the underneath targets since the Bucs' bye week. Shepard has a 22% target share versus 16% for Otton. While Otton remains the best bet to finish as the No. 2 on the team behind Mike Evans, his outlook takes a hit with this development. Otton DOWNGRADES to the low-end TE1 tier but still offers high-end TE1 upside on a Bucs team we love down the stretch.
     
  • Trey McBride: McBride is on a heater over the last four games, averaging 17.7 points with a stellar 9.7 Utilization Score. He ranks second in Utilization Score for the season (9.1) behind only Brock Bowers. McBride is HOLDING STEADY as a badass high-end TE1.