Welcome to the Utilization Report, where Dwain McFarland highlights his top fantasy football takeaways heading into Week 15.

The Top Fantasy Football Takeaways for Week 15

Let's follow the data to identify the top waiver wire options, trade targets, upgrades, and downgrades based on what we learned in Week 14.

Note: as you read through the Utilization Report, you'll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it's more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.

Upgrades, Downgrades and Emerging Trends

1. Jauan Jennings has dominated since the loss of Brandon Aiyuk.

Jennings has played in five games since the loss of Aiyuk. Over that span, he has the top Utilization Score (8.3) and leads the team in target share (32%) by a large margin while averaging 17.4 fantasy points per game.

 

Despite a dip in fantasy points in Weeks 12 and 13, with Brock Purdy battling a shoulder injury and a snow game, Jennings' underlying utilization never wavered. He notched 27% and 29% target shares in the down performances.

Based on the last four years of data, Jennings' Utilization Score comps have averaged 16.6 points, with the vast majority securing a WR1 campaign.

  • WR1 to 6 finishes: 7%
  • WR7 to 12 finishes: 64%
  • WR13 to 18 finishes: 29%

Jennings UPGRADES to low-end WR1 territory.

2. Jordan Addison is on a heater, but can he keep it up?

Addison has improved his Utilization Score by 1.7 points over the last four weeks—the third-most behind Puka Nacua (+2.1) and Adam Thielen (+2.0).

Over that stretch, the second-year wide receiver boasts a 9.4 Utilization Score with 23.5 points per game. He leads the team with a whopping 29% target share and 42% air yards share.

 

While Jefferson remains the undisputed WR1 in Minnesota, Addison is showing why he was a first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. He can beat defenders at every level of the field and offers home-run hitting upside with the ball in his hands. But his scoring potential hasn't been restricted to big plays—he leads the team with a 40% share of endzone targets over the last month.

Addison's season-long Utilization Score (6.8) comps haven't been WR1 caliber, but many have notched a WR2 season.

  • Fantasy points per game: 12.8
  • WR13 to 24 finishes: 27%
  • WR25 to 36 finishes: 40%
  • WR37 to 48 finishes: 34%

The season-long data tells us that Addison is due for negative regression. That makes sense, considering he might battle ups and downs in a crowded offense with Jefferson and Hockenson. However, the Vikings' attack is strong enough to power multiple weapons—Sam Darnold ranks eighth in passing yards per game (254) and third in TDs (2.2). Additionally, Addison's recent production could be the product of a massive leap forward by a young player, which would make the season-long Utilization Score less relevant.

Addison UPGRADES to high-end WR3 status and offers high-end WR2 upside.

3. Can you trust Chuba Hubbard and Adam Thielen in the playoffs?

With Bryce Young back under center, the Panthers have kept games against the Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Eagles close—covering the spread in all three contests. While they haven't morphed into offensive juggernauts, Carolina isn't giving up, and the offense has consolidated around two players.

Chuba Hubbard

One week ago, it looked like Hubbard's backfield domination was in jeopardy, with Jonathan Brooks carving out more playing time. However, Brooks re-tore his ACL and is out for the season.

Hubbard returned to his backfield bogarting ways with Brooks sidelined, notching his ninth game with a 70% or higher snap share. He ground his way to 20.7 fantasy points with his highest Utilization Score of the season (9.7) against a stingy Eagles' run defense.

Based on historical data, Hubbard's Utilization Score comps have fared exceptionally well.

  • Fantasy points per game: 16.5
  • RB1 to 6 finishes: 31%
  • RB7 to 12 finishes: 38%
  • RB13 to 18 finishes: 31%

Over the next two weeks, Hubbard gets the Cowboys and Cardinals—favorable matchups for running backs.

Hubbard UPGRADES to borderline RB1 territory.

Adam Thielen

Thielen has played full-time over the last two games, posting a 9.5 Utilization score and averaging 21.6 points per game. He leads the team with a 30% target share, 33% air yards share, and 50% endzone target share.

 

The big difference for Thielen versus earlier this season is the absence of Diontae Johnson, reducing his target competition. Of course, this is familiar territory for the 34-year-old wide receiver—he averaged 20 fantasy points per game over the first eight weeks of 2023 with Bryce Young at the helm.

Young is pushing the ball further down the field, boosting Thielen's aDOT to 11.7. Thielen eclipsed 100 air yards only three times last year but has bested that mark in the last two games (113 and 132 yards). This positive development opens up much more upside in his comparison group.

To create a comp group for Thielen, I blended his Utilization Score with Bryce Young from 2023 (7.3) with the last two games (9.5). His comps averaged 15.4 points. The majority were WR2s, but over a third were WR1s.

  • WR1 to 12 finishes: 35%
  • WR13 to 24 finishes: 55%
  • WR25 to 36 finishes: 10%

Thielen has neutral WR matchups over the next two games against Dallas and Arizona but gets a plus matchup against Tampa Bay in Week 17 for the championship game.

The one outstanding variable for Thielen is the potential return of Jalen Coker, who had played his role before an injury in Week 10. There is a chance that the two players form a platoon, which would be a massive hit to Thielen's fantasy outlook.

Thielen UPGRADES to high-end WR3 status but offers WR2 upside for the fantasy playoffs if Coker remains in a backup role upon his return.

4. Brian Thomas Jr.'s outlook is bright in dynasty formats.

Thomas suffered a chest injury the week after Christian Kirk's injury, which limited his output. However, the rookie has demonstrated high-end upside over the last three healthy games.

Over that span, he has an 8.3 Utilization Score, a 28% target share, and a 44% air yards share. Despite quarterback challenges, the rookie has averaged 16.3 points per game.

 

His Utilization Score in healthy games—which has a strong year-over-year correlation with future fantasy points for wide receivers—paints an encouraging picture. His comps averaged 14.6 points per game, and over were WR2s.

  • WR1 to 12 finishes: 13%
  • WR13 o 24 finishes: 56% 
  • WR25 to 36 finishes: 29%

Kirk and Evan Engram will challenge for targets, which this accounts for—however, the last three games paint an even higher upside. If Thomas makes significant strides in year two, he could post similar numbers next year, given that Kirk has never been a high-end target earner. If we use the last three games to build his comps, things improve dramatically.

  • WR1 to 12 finishes: 55%
  • WR13 to 24 finishes: 42%
  • WR25 to 36 finishes: 3%

Thomas UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 status and offers high-end WR1 upside in dynasty formats. He is a low-end WR2 the rest of the way in 2024.

5. Utilization Score Risers

This section will highlight some of the biggest Utilization Score movers over the last four games. 

Note: Sometimes, the players are the same as the previous week, and in those cases, I might highlight a different player to cover more players. Be sure to check out last week's risers and fallers.

Running Backs

  • Tyrone Tracy | Giants (+0.6): Tracy has eclipsed a 70% snap share in three of the last four games, and the only time he didn't was due to two fumbles. He has an 8.3 Utilization Score over the last four games, with a 71% snap share and 63% attempt share. He doesn't leave the field in short-yardage or obvious passing situations. The Giants offense is one of the worst in the NFL, but the rookie plays an every-down role. Tracy is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range RB2.
     
  • Josh Jacobs | Packers (+0.4): Since the Week 10 bye, the Packers have fed Jacobs 73% of the rushing attempts, leading to 20 totes per game. Over that span, he has an 8.3 Utilization Score with 24.6 points per game. Chris Brooks is handling obvious passing downs and the two-minute offense, but Jacobs still gets looks on early downs, with an 11% target share and a 46% route participation rate. He has bogarted 77% of the team's attempts inside the five-yard line on the season—a valuable role on a high-quality offense like the Packers. Jacobs is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range RB1 with RB1 overall upside in favorable matchups.

Wide Receivers

  • Jordan Addison | Vikings (+1.7): See No. 2.
     
  • Tyreek Hill | Dolphins (+0.8): Hill has been a disappointment with only 13.6 points per game in 2024. However, over the last four weeks, we have seen signs of life at 19.3 points per game with an 8.7 Utilization Score. Over that span, he has averaged nine targets (22%) and 89 air yards (35%)—Hill UPGRADES to borderline WR1 territory.

Tight Ends

  • David Njoku | Browns (+1.1): Since Jameis Winston took over as the starter for the Browns, Njoku has an 8.8 Utilization Score. Over those six games, his targets have jumped from 6.5 per game to 9.0. His air yards have climbed from 26 to 57, and his end zone targets are up from 0.5 to 1.1. Njoku has TE7, 15, 6, 31, 2, and 2 finishes with Winston, averaging 14.6 points. Njoku is a borderline high-end TE1.
     
  • Michael Mayer | Raiders (+1.0): Mayer saw his most prominent role of the season in Week 14 with a 71% route participation and 27% target share. The Raiders hinted at a two-tight-end offense in the preseason, and given their limited wide receiver options, it could make sense down the stretch. However, with Desmond Ridder taking over as the starting quarterback and Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers challenging for targets, it is hard to imagine a world where Mayer becomes a viable fantasy option in most leagues. Mayer is on the map, but only as a low-end TE2 for now.

6. Utilization Score Fallers

Running Backs

  • Tyjae Spears | Titans (-0.5): Spears has a 3.5 Utilization Score over his last four healthy games. Over that span, he has averaged only 4.3 attempts and two targets per game. Tony Pollard remains entrenched as the clear-cut RB1 in Tennessee's lackluster offensive attack. Spears theoretically offers three-down ability, which could lead to significant production should Pollard go down, but the second-year back is only an RB5 handcuff. 

Wide Receivers

  • Tyler Lockett | Seahawks (-0.7): Father time has finally caught up with the 32-year-old Lockett. He has a 3.1 Utilization Score over the last four games, with an identical 3.1 fantasy points per game—Lockett DOWNGRADES to WR6 territory.
     
  • Jayden Reed | Packers (-0.6): Early in the season, Reed overcame his lackluster playing time and target share with big plays. However, his Utilization Score over the last four games is 3.8, with a 66% route participation rate and 15% target share. His Utilization Score now sits at 5.3 on the season—a range where we rarely see strong fantasy performers emerge. Over the last four years, only 10% of Reed's comps have notched a WR3 finish or better. Reed DOWNGRADES to boom-bust WR4 status. 

Tight Ends

  • Cade Otton | Buccaneers (-0.4): Otton has a 6.2 Utilization Score over the last three games with Mike Evans back in the lineup. However, the more significant challenge has been Sterling Shepard and Jalen McMillan carving our roles over the last few games. Otton' has a 16% target share with only 6.7 fantasy points per game since Week 12. Otton DOWNGRADES to the low-end TE1 tier.

7. It's a Fugazi!!!

A few players pop up weekly in the fantasy boxscore but lack the underlying goods to back them up. They are best left for the next fantasy manager to worry about.

Donnie Brasco: “You should give it to somebody who doesn't know any better because that's a fugazi.”

  • Mack Hollins | WR | Bills: Not wearing shoes is a superb bit. Who doesn't want to stay grounded? Speaking of staying grounded, Hollins has a 10% target share and a 3.5 Utilization Score on the season. With Keon Coleman out, he has two top-24 finishes in four games, but that isn't likely to continue. His comps have averaged 6.3 fantasy points, with only 3% managing a WR5-worthy campaign. Hollins remains a WR6.

Waiver Wire Recommendations

8. Waiver options that are available in most leagues.

Patrick Taylor Jr. | RB | 49ers (96% available)

Isaac Guerendo left the game with a foot injury. When asked about the injury, he noted that he wasn't worried about it and that leaving the game was a precaution due to the short week. Kyle Shanahan labeled the back as day-to-day, giving him a shot to take the field on Thursday. Hopefully, Guerendo can suit up on Thursday Night Football against the Rams, but if he can't, Taylor would be the favorite to lead the backfield.

The 49ers could turn to more of a committee approach, but Taylor was the No. 2 behind Guerendo in Week 14. Taylor posted 8.5 fantasy points on a 33% snap share and 22% rush share. Ke'Shawn Vaughn was the RB3 but didn't enter the game until the final drive in mop-up duty. Israel Abanikanda wasn't active.

Taylor would upgrade to high-end RB3 territory if Guerendo is out.

Sean Tucker | RB | Buccaneers (96% available)

Bucky Irving left the game due to back tightness, and his status for Week 15 is in jeopardy. If Irving didn't play, Tucker would be the No. 2 behind Rachaad White in a matchup against the Chargers. 

Tucker flashed high-end upside in his only game with significant playing time in Week 6. In that game, he parlayed a 41% rush share and 8% target share into 34.2 fantasy points. While we wouldn't expect that sort of outburst, he could push for 40%-plus of the opportunities, giving him a shot at an RB2 finish.

Tucker UPGRADES to mid-range RB3 territory and offers RB2 upside if Irving is out.

Sincere McCormick | RB | Raiders (85% available)

McCormick took over the lead role in Week 14, handling 59% of the snaps and 60% of the rushing attempts. Ameer Abdullah remained the primary passing-down back, but McCormick collected 17 opportunities, 15 attempts, and two targets.

Alexander Mattison and Zamir White didn't play, and it is hard to know if the Raiders will continue to feed McCormick when they are healthy. However, neither veteran was effective with their opportunities, leaving the door open for the team to ride McCormick the rest of the way.

Aidan O'Connell suffered a potential season-ending injury, which would push Desmond Ridder to the top of the quarterback depth chart. Ridder struggled as a starter in Atlanta, and while O'Connell and Minshew haven't been high-end quarterbacks, they have been steady enough to support one or two weapons each week—something that is at risk with Ridder taking over.

McCormick UPGRADES to high-end RB3 territory as long as Mattison and White remain sidelined.

Ray-Ray McCloud | WR | Falcons (82% available)

McCloud has averaged 12.2 points over the last four games with a 5.7 Utilization Score. He has surpassed Kyle Pitts as the third option in the passing game with a 19% target share over that stretch.

 

Despite McCloud's recent ascension in target share, he remains a deep-league option only. The majority of his Utilization Score comps have finished as a WR4 or WR5, making him a player to avoid in starting lineups in smaller leagues.

McCloud UPGRADES to the borderline WR4 tier.

Jalen McMillan | WR | Buccaneers (95% available)

McMillan registered a season-high 27% target share and a 7.7 Utilization Score on his way to 21.9 points against the Raiders in Week 14. The rookie third-rounder could challenge for the No. 2 spot in the pecking order behind Mike Evans. Cade Otton has regressed over the last three games, and Sterling Shepard is a 31-year-old vet with a lengthy injury history.

The Buccaneers are fighting for their playoff lives, and Baker Mayfield ranks fourth in passing yards per game (256) and is tied for third in touchdowns (2.2). That makes McMillan worth a roster spot in deep leagues.

McMillan UPGRADES to boom-bust WR5 status.

9. Not available in my league, pal!

These players aren't available in sicko leagues (I feel ya), but believe it or not, most of the Milky Way galaxy doesn't play in a sicko league. If available, please allow us sicko-leaguers to live vicariously through you and prioritize these options off the waiver wire.

Adam Thielen | WR | Panthers (47% available)

See No. 3 above.

10. Stash plays: patience and foresight are required.

If you play in a sicko league, here are some names that are more likely to be available. They should not be sitting on the wire due to potential value in the future, but they likely won't be helping your fantasy squad next weekend.

Israel Abanikanda | RB | 49ers (97% available)

Taylor was the RB2 behind Guerendo in Week 14, but Abanikanda is the more explosive runner who fits Shanahan's scheme as a one-cut big-play runner. Should Guerendo miss time, Abanikanda could challenge for playing time quickly. He played in a similar scheme with the Jets.

Abanikanda is an RB5 stash play in deeper leagues.

Kendre Miller | RB | Saints (94% available)

Miller returned from IR and notched a 26% snap share, operating as the RB2 behind Alvin Kamara. The second-year back handled 30% of the rushing attempts—one of which he punched in for a touchdown.

Derek Carr is week-to-week with a non-throwing hand injury and a concussion, which could further limit the offense's potential. However, the new coaching staff doesn't hate Miller like Dennis Allen, putting him on the fantasy radar in deep leagues.

Miller UPGRADES to RB5 stash status in deep leagues.

P.S. Remember to revisit last week's stash plays for additional options that could still be on your waiver wire.

More Fantasy Football Takeaways Ahead Of Week 15

Running Back Utilization Bytes

  • Browns RBs: Nick Chubb has 41% and 44% attempt shares over the last two games, with the team getting Jerome Ford more involved (41% and 40%). Ford has a 5.8 Utilization Score in the Browns' new-look rotation, while Chubb has fallen to 4.3. Ford UPGRADES to low-end RB3 status and Chubb DOWNGRADES to mid-range RB4 territory.
     
  • Isaac Guerendo: Guerendo accumulated 26.8 fantasy points on 14 attempts and two targets before missing the final two drives with a foot injury. The rookie back indicated his departure from the game was only precautionary due to the short week. Kyle Shanahan labeled the back as day-to-day, giving him a shot to take the field on Thursday. While that is positive, this is a situation we will have to monitor closely this week. Guerendo UPGRADES to high-end RB2 territory if healthy.
     
  • Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco led the backfield in snaps (48%), attempts (58%), routes (33%), and targets (12%) in his second game back from injury. The third-year back posted a 6.4 Utilization Score, making him a borderline RB2 if it sticks. If he continues his upward trajectory, he could re-enter mid-range RB2 territory next week. Pacheco UPGRADES to borderline RB2 territory.
     
  • Kimani Vidal: Vidal led the Chargers with a 53% snap share, carving out the lead pass-down role with a 47% route participation. He only managed 3.4 fantasy points, a positive step for the rookie. While Gus Edwards still led the way with a 42% attempt share, Vidal was just a little behind at 33% and looked like the more explosive back. Vidal UPGRADES to mid-range RB4 territory and offers high-end RB2 upside should he surpass Edwards as the primary ball carrier.
     
  • Jaguars RBs: The Jaguars have split the backfield fairly evenly in two games since the bye week. Travis Etienne has a 50% snap share, and Tank Bigsby has 49%. Bigsby has been the primary ball carrier (54%), but Etienne has handled more passing-down work with a 44% route participation and 10% target share. Expect leading and close game scripts to slightly favor Bigsby while trailing scripts favor Etienne. Both backs are mid-range RB3 options.
     
  • Jets RBs: Breece Hall didn't play in Week 14, and the Jets divided the backfield opportunities almost evenly between Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis. Allen handled 56% of the snaps and led the team with a 55% snap share while posting a 47% route participation rate. Davis came in at 52%, 45%, and 42%. Both backs are borderline RB2 options if Hall misses more time.
     
  • Rachaad White: White dominated the backfield, with Irving departing early due to back tightness. White notched an 8.2 Utilization Score with a 75% snap share and accumulated 24.9 fantasy points as a top-three option for the week. Tucker should challenge White for some of that work, but both backs benefit in a two-way split. White UPGRADES to high-end RB2 territory if Irving misses time.
     
  • Zach Charbonnet: Charbonnet has a 9.3 Utilization Score with 27.3 points per game in three contests without Kenneth Walker this season. Charbonnet is a high-end RB1 option in games without Walker.

Wide Receiver Utilization Bytes

  • Amari Cooper: Cooper posted his highest target share (38%) and Utilization Score (7.7) as a Bill. His route participation remained subpar at 63%, but this is the connection we have been waiting for with Josh Allen. Buffalo doesn't have another high-end target earner, which leaves the door ajar for Cooper to carve out a prominent role in a high-end passing attack the rest of the way. Cooper UPGRADES to high-end WR4 territory and would quickly ascend to WR2 status in a more significant role. 
     
  • A.J. Brown: Brown's season-long Utilization Score now sits at 7.6 despite an elite 33% target share. While a 7.6 isn't bad, that target share usually accompanies a higher score. However, the Eagles' run-first approach and Jalen Hurts' scrambling ability are depressing the passing volume, holding Brown to only 6.5 targets per game. The stud wideout has finished outside the top 24 in five of the last seven games. Brown's Utilization Score comps have notched a top-12 finish only 15% of the time, with 58% finishing as a WR2. Brown DOWNGRADES to high-end WR2 territory.
     
  • Calvin Ridley: Ridley didn't boom like fantasy managers had hoped against the Jaguars with 12.9 pints. However, his underlying data continued to look great, with a 38% target share. Since the departure of DeAndre Hopkins, Ridley has a 30% target share and an 8.2 Utilization Score—up from 20% and 5.2 before Hopkins' departure. Ridley is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range WR2 who offers high-end WR1 upside.
     
  • Christian Watson: Watson notched a season-high 33% target share in an expanded role with Rome Doubs (concussion) out in Week 14. Watson had a 92% route participation rate and posted a 7.7 Utilization Score and 15.4 fantasy points. Watson will likely return to a rotation when Doubs returns but would move up the ranks if he holds onto a full-time role. Watson is HOLDING STEADY as a boom-bust WR4 in games without Doubs and is a WR5 upon Doubs' return.
     
  • Darnell Mooney: Mooney rebounded with 20.2 fantasy points after disappointing outings in Weeks 11 and 12, when he scored 4.7 and five points. Mooney remains the No. 2 option in Atlanta's passing attack behind Drake London, with a 22% target share and a 6.9 Utilization Score. Over the last four years, 46% of his comps have registered a WR2 finish. Mooney is HOLDING STEADY as a borderline WR2.
     
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Smith-Njigba has a 7.6 Utilization Score over the last four games with DK Metcalf back in the lineup. Over that span, he has averaged 18.3 points per game with a 23% target share and 29% air yards share. Historically, his comps have garnered a WR1 finish 23% of the time, while 55% have been WR2s. Smith-Njigba is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range WR2.

Tight End Utilization Bytes

  • Daniel Bellinger: With Theo Johnson out for the season, Bellinger stepped into the starting role, posting an 82% route participation. He notched a 6.2 Utilization Score with 9.5 fantasy points. The third-year TE has never been a strong target earner, but the Giants have little behind Malik Nabers. Bellinger is a low-end TE2 worth monitoring.
     
  • Grant Calcaterra: Calcaterra took over for Dallas Goedert, who will miss the next three games on IR. Calcaterra has a 5.5 Utilization Score in five contests without Goedert, averaging 7.9 points. Calcaterra is a low-end TE2.
     
  • Juwan Johnson: Johnson has a 79% route participation and 18% target share over the last two games with Taysom Hill injured. Over that stretch, he has a 7.7 Utilization Score with 11.8 points per game. Carr is week-to-week with a non-throwing hand injury, which clouds the outlook for the 28-year-old tight end. That makes it challenging to give him an upgrade. Johnson is HOLDING STEADY as a borderline TE1 in games with Carr under center.
     
  • Pat Freiermuth: Freiermuth has TE6 and TE5 finishes over the last two weeks with 18.8 and 13.8 points. However, his playing time and targets have stayed the same. Over the last four games, his Utilization Score is 6.7, with a 14% target share. Freiermuth is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range to high-end TE2 option.

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