Welcome to the Utilization Report, where Dwain McFarland highlights his top fantasy football takeaways heading into championship weekend. 

The Top Fantasy Football Takeaways for Week 17

Let's follow the data to identify the top waiver wire options, upgrades, and downgrades based on what we learned in Week 16.

Note: as you read through the Utilization Report, you'll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it's more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.

Upgrades, Downgrades and Emerging Trends

1. Tyjae Spears brings Tidings of Comfort and Joy.

That isn't a lump of coal at the bottom of your stocking; it's fantasy points!

With Tony Pollard battling injuries and the Titans in trailing game scripts, Spears stepped into the RB1 role over the last two games. Over that span, he has a 7.6 Utilization Score with 24.4 fantasy points per game.

 

This backfield remains a committee, but Spears has the hot hand and could edge out Pollard the rest of the way. The most stable part of the second-year back's profile is his role in the passing game. He has handled 100% of the long-down-distance snaps and two-minute offense in the last two games.

Spears still carries game-script risk, but is playing too well to hold down—he UPGRADES to borderline RB2 status and offers RB1 upside. Spears is available in 44% of Yahoo leagues.

2. Here comes Santa Claus Keenan Allen.

Keenan may have gone up a pant size or two, but like the big guy in the red suit, he loads lots of toys and goodies on his sleigh. Since Week 12, he ranks No. 4 in Utilization Score (9.5) and No. 8 in fantasy points per game (20.4).

 

Yes, Allen gets to play from the friendly confines of the slot, but he isn't just a check-down merchant. His 10.8 aDOT is higher than Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jaxon Smith-Njigba—two players who play inside that fantasy managers love. He isn't the same yards-after-catch player he once was, but let's give the 32-year-old credit and acknowledge that he can still ball, y'all!

Going back to the Bears bye week, when Allen was finally over his early-season heel injury, he has an 8.1 Utilization Score. Based on the last four years of data, 64% of his comps were WR1s, with the remaining 32% finishing as WR2s.

Allen UPGRADES to high-end WR2 status.

3. Fantasy managers are dreaming of a Jameis Christmas.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw for 157 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions in Week 16. In three healthy starts over his career, DTR still hasn't cleared 170 yards through the air. That is a recipe for disaster for all of the passing game options.

David Njoku was able to scratch out 14.6 points on a 33% target share, but Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore were less fortunate with only 4.0 and 4.1.

 

Unless we get Jameis Winston back under center, the Browns' pass catchers should be avoided in fantasy.

Njoku DOWNGRADES to borderline TE1 status, Jerry Jeudy DOWNGRADES to boom-bust WR4 territory, and Elijah Moore can be dropped in most formats.

4. A Holly(wood) Jolly Christmas for the Chiefs.

Hollywood Brown was only on the field for 33% of the Chiefs' pass plays but posted a monster 53% targets per route run rate.

 

We have no idea how quickly the Chiefs will integrate Brown into the offense or what his ceiling utilization might be. DeAndre Hopkins joined the team in Week 8 and has yet to reach a 70% route participation rate in eight games.

However, we know two things: the path to playing time is wide open, and the Chiefs need a playmaker in the passing attack. Justin Watson (50%) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (28%) continue to receive significant route participation. In the coming weeks, it would make sense for Brown to push for similar utilization to Xavier Worthy, and if that happens, he could quickly become Patrick Mahomes' top option.

Brown UPGRADES to boom-bust WR4 status but could quickly ascend to WR2 territory, making him an appealing way to differentiate in Guillotine playoff contests. Brown is available in 68% of Yahoo leagues.

5. Utilization Score Risers

This section will highlight some of the biggest Utilization Score movers over the last four games.

Note: Sometimes, the players are the same as the previous week, and in those cases, I might highlight a different player to cover more players. Be sure to check out last week's risers and fallers.

Running Backs

  • Jahmyr Gibbs | Lions (+0.5): Gibbs has a 9.3 Utilization Score over the last two games with David Montgomery injured. The second-year back has averaged 26.9 fantasy points, handling 69% of the rushing attempts and garnering a 14% target share on a 68% route participation rate. Sonic is a high-end RB1 with Knuckles sidelined.
     
  • Jerome Ford | Browns (+0.4): With Nick Chubb out, Ford notched a season-high 79% snap share, totaling 11 rushing attempts and five targets. With Thompson-Robinson at the helm, the Browns offensive ceiling is low, but Ford delivered 24.1 points on an 8.8 Utilization Score in Week 16, proving he could be up to the challenge. Ford UPGRADES to borderline RB2 status with DTR under center but would climb toward mid-range RB2 territory with Winston.

Wide Receivers

  • Jalen McMillan | Buccaneers (+1.1): McMillan has handled the No. 2 WR role for Tampa Bay over the last four weeks with an 86% route participation. Over that span, he has a 6.4 Utilization Score, averaging 15.4 points per game. His 18% target share is slightly above average for an NFL WR2, but he gets big-play and scoring opportunities regularly in a high-quality passing attack. If not for a tremendous defensive play by Jourdan Lewis, McMillan would have had an even bigger day in Week 16. Over the last four years, 66% of McMillan's comps were WR3s, and 29% were WR2s. McMillan UPGRADES to mid-range WR3 status and is available in 55% of leagues.
     
  • Xavier Worthy | Chiefs (+0.6): Decorations of red on a green Christmas field … okay, you guys have probably had enough of my cheesy holiday song references. Still, Worthy has looked more like the gift we had hoped to open when drafting him over the last two games. Over that span, he has a 29% target share and an 8.5 Utilization Score, averaging 17.1 points per game. He isn't consistently getting the big downfield targets (7.7 aDOT and 29% air yards share), but he has been much more involved in scoring position with a 60% endzone target share. Worthy UPGRADES to boom-bust WR3 territory.

Tight Ends

  • Sam LaPorta | Lions (+1.0): Over the last four games, LaPorta has an 8.9 Utilization Score, averaging 14.6 points per game. During that stretch, he has an 86% route participation and 18% target share. Over the last four years, 64% of LaPorta's comps were mid-range TE1s. It took a long time, and the Lions offense remains diverse, but LaPorta is finally paying dividends—he UPGRADES to mid-range TE1 territory.
     
  • Chig Okonkwo | Titans (+0.8): Okonkwo registered season-highs in route participation (83%), target share (31%), Utilization Score (8.7), and fantasy points (17.1) in Week 16. Over the last two games, he has had an 8.3 Utilization Score of 15.5 points per game thanks to a 29% target share. Okonkwo has flashed play-making ability, so it will be interesting to see if his expanded playing time continues—he is easily the second-most talented pass-catching offense on the team. Okonkwo UPGRADES to the high-end TE2 tier.

6. Utilization Score Fallers

Running Backs

  • Tony Pollard | Titans (-0.4): Pollard has battled an ankle issue over the last two games, which opened the door for more playing time for Spears. Over that span, he has a 43% snap share and a 5.0 Utilization Score, averaging 8.3 fantasy points. Given how well Spears has performed, we could see more of a hot-hand approach the rest of the way, and game scripts could be a problem—Spears has taken over the long-down-distance (100%) and two-minute (100%) roles. Pollard DOWNGRADES to RB3 territory.

Wide Receivers

  • DK Metcalf | Seahawks (-0.6): Metcalf has been good long enough to know he is probably just in a funk or playing through an injury (shoulder). His 6.0 Utilization Score over the last four games makes him one of the largest fallers, pulling his season score down to 7.4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has won the love of Geno Smith over the last month, outtargeting Metcalf 26% to 19%. Metcalf is HOLDING STEADY as a borderline WR2. 

Tight Ends

  • Kyle Pitts | Falcons (-0.4): Pitts has a lowly 4.0 Utilization Score over the last four games, bringing his season score down to 6.0. The former No. 4 overall NFL draft pick has averaged only 2.7 fantasy points over that stretch with a 12% target share. In the past, Pitts had substantial underlying utilization despite playing time challenges, but that has evaporated this year; it is time to waive the white flag. Pitts is a low-end TE2.

More Fantasy Football Takeaways Ahead of Week 17

Running Back Utilization Bytes

  • Alexander Mattison: Mattison stepped into a 57% snap share and notched a 7.9 Utilization Score with Sincere McCormick placed on IR. Ameer Abdullah is still the primary passing-down option, but Mattison had a respectable 44% route participation rate. The veteran has a 21% TPRR on the season, which is enough to keep him involved in the passing game, as we saw in Week 16 with six targets. Mattison UPGRADES to borderline RB2 territory and is a PRIORITY WAIVER TARGET in smaller leagues. He is available in 52% of leagues, but not in my league, pal!
     
  • Audric Estime: With Jaleel McLaughlin out, Estime led the Broncos with 43% of the attempts, leading to 10.8 fantasy points. However, even if McLaughlin doesn't play in Week 17, it won't be easy to feel comfortable starting Estime. He had a 3.4 Utilization Score thanks to an abysmal 21% snap share in Week 16. If McLaughlin doesn't play, Estime is a low-upside RB4 option.
     
  • Breece Hall: Hall delivered 14 fantasy points on a 79% snap share and 8.6 Utilization Score after practicing in full last week. Hall is HOLDING STEADY is a high-end RB2.
     
  • Jaylen Warren: Warren has led the Steelers backfield in snap share in four of five games, crescendoing at 67% against the Ravens in Week 16. Since the Week 9 bye, Warren has averaged 12.2 opportunities per game. Warren is HOLDING STEADY as a low-end RB3.
     
  • Michael Carter: Carter operated as the No. 1 back for the Cardinals after the departure of James Conner due to a knee injury. Carter and DeeJay Dallas were the only replacement options, with Trey Benson inactive and Emari Demercado on IR. Carter flashed as a passing-down back early in his career with the Jets and did so again with a 17% target share in Week 16. Carter is available in 99% of leagues and could step into a near full-time role if Conner and Benson are out in Week 17. SKANK LEAGUE ALERT!
     
  • Patrick Taylor: Taylor managed only 3.5 fantasy points against the Dolphins but dominated the running back snaps (79%) and delivered a solid 6.5 Utilization Score, which is very hard to do on such low production. Taylor is available in 54% of Yahoo leagues and is a borderline RB2 if Isaac Guerendo is out in Week 17.
     
  • Trey Benson: James Conner's status is in doubt for Week 17. He is part of the Cardinals' long-term plans, and their playoff pulse flatlined with a loss to the Panthers last weekend. If Conner can't go and Benson is healthy, he would be the favorite to lead the team in carries, with Carter likely spelling him on passing downs. That would make Benson a low-end RB2 option, and he is available in 82% of leagues.

Wide Receiver Utilization Bytes

  • Deebo Samuel: With Guerendo out, Samuel garnered a 7.2 Utilization Score and a season-high 28% rush share, leading to five attempts. The veteran also earned a 25% target share, pushing him to 23% or higher in five of his last seven games. While he doesn't look like the same explosive player from the past, he is still seeing enough opportunities to find a spike week. Samuel is a borderline WR3.
     
  • Falcons WRs: In Michael Penix's first start, the Falcons' target pecking order remained the same, with Drake London (31%) leading the way, followed by Darnell Mooney (23%) and Ray-Ray McCloud (15%). London is a mid-range to low-end WR2, and Darnell Mooney is a low-end WR3.
     
  • Kayshon Boutte: Boutte has reached a 20% target share or higher in three consecutive games but finally came through in the fantasy box score with 20.5 points. Over the last three games, he has a 6.0 Utilization Score, averaging 10.5 points per game. Boutte enters the boom-bust WR4 tier and is available in 97% of Yahoo leagues. SKANK LEAGUE ALERT!
     
  • Olamide Zaccheaus: Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown are battling for the WR2 role since Noah Brown went on IR ahead of Week 15. While their playing time has been similar, Zaccheaus (70% route participation) has a 17% target share versus 13% for Brown. Zaccheaus UPGRADES to boom-bust WR5 territory and is available in 100% of Yahoo leagues. SKANK LEAGUE ALERT!

Tight End Utilization Bytes

  • Dalton Schultz: Tank Dell suffered a significant knee injury and is out for the year, which opens the door for Schultz to play a more prominent role. The veteran tight end notched his second-best fantasy finish of the season with 15.5 points on an 84% route participation and 22% target share against the Chiefs. Schultz UPGRADES to low-end TE1 territory without Dell in the lineup.