Week 17.

Championship week. And Christmas. And Festivus.

With that in mind, this week we're publishing a truncated version of “Freedman's Favorites.”

Just one article. Fewer words of analysis on a per-player basis. Less time spent writing, editing, and reading for everyone. Win-win-win.

But, first—here's my arbitrarily definitive top 10 Christmas movies.

  • No. 10 - Little Women (2019): Maybe not technically a Christmas movie, but still great.
  • No. 9 - Batman Returns: Michelle Pfeiffer as Catwoman. Enough said.
  • No. 8 - Love, Actually: Alan Rickman as a lovable bad guy.
  • No. 7 - National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation: Maybe the best of the series.
  • No. 6 - Mixed Nuts: Best Christmas movie you've never heard of. Amazing cast.
  • No. 5 - Harry Potter: Any of them. Rickman as a lovable bad guy.
  • No. 4 - Home Alone: Still an all-time banger. The John Candy cameo is great.
  • No. 3 - Bad Santa: Deliciously NSFW.
  • No. 2: Die Hard: Definitely a Christmas movie. Rickman as a lovable bad guy.
  • No. 1: Elf: A must-watch movie every year.

I wish you the happiest of holidays—and of course a cornucopia of fantasy football championships.

Freedman's Favorites

As of Monday evening, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 17 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Should be considered in daily fantasy.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.

Some customary notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players in separate sections are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Time Stamp: All information and analysis is as of 7:45 p.m. ET on Monday, Dec. 23. All sports betting odds are based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

Top Week 17 QBs For Fantasy Football

Jayden Daniels (Commanders) vs. Falcons

  • Commanders: -5
  • O/U: 46.5
  • TT: 25.75

Jayden Daniels now is a -20000 Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite following Week 16, which saw him pass for 258 yards and five TDs and rush for 81 yards in a last-minute come-from-behind 36-33 victory over the Eagles, who entered the game with one of the best defenses in football.

No. 1 among all starting QBs with a 12% scramble rate (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report), Daniels has a high weekly floor, and his matchup this week gives him a vaulted ceiling. 

The Falcons are No. 5 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+3.7).

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) vs. Panthers

  • Buccaneers: -7.5
  • O/U: 48.5
  • TT: 28

Mayfield didn't have a great game against the Cowboys—and he still passed for 303 yards and two TDs (with an INT) and added 42 yards rushing. That's pretty good for a mediocre performance.

Since the Week 11 bye, Mayfield has six INTs in five games; for the season, 15 in 15. He's a through-and-through gunslinger.

Even so, in his 12 games this year with No. 1 WR Mike Evans, Mayfield has 10 top-10 positional finishes.

He has a great matchup against the Panthers, who are No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.173, per RBs Don't Matter).

And I think this game will shoot out. I bet over 47.5 in the lookahead market (logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker), and I have this line projected at 51.1 in our Fantasy Life Game Models.

The Buccaneers and Panthers have both been over-happy teams in the betting market (per Action Network).

  • Buccaneers Overs: 10-5 | 27.1% ROI | +6.17 Margin
  • Panthers Overs: 11-4 | 40.4% ROI | +5.37 Margin

Lots of points should benefit Mayfield and the entire Bucs offense.

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The Dropback

Sam Darnold (Vikings -1, TT: 25) vs. Packers: Darnold passed for 275 yards and three TDs (with one INT) in a 31-29 win against the Packers in Week 4.

Anthony Richardson (Colts -8, TT: 24.25) at Giants: Richardson has 45-257-5 rushing in five games since returning to the starting lineup in Week 11.

Bo Nix (Broncos +3, TT: 23.5) at Bengals: Nix has three extra days to rest and prepare off Thursday Night Football, and the Bengals are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (19.5).

Bryce Young (Panthers +8, TT: 20.75) at Buccaneers: Young still trails backup Andy Dalton in our Fantasy Life QB ATS Value Chart, but he passed for a season-high 298 yards against the Bucs in Week 13.

Matt LaMarca likes Panthers +7.5 in our early Week 17 lines piece.

Top Week 17 RBs For Fantasy Football

Kyren Williams (Rams) vs. Cardinals

  • Rams: -6
  • O/U: 48
  • TT: 27

In Week 13, Kyren Williams had a season-low 67% snap rate and shared work with rookie third-rounder Blake Corum. It seemed like a potential harbinger of things to come.

It absolutely wasn't.

In three games since then, Williams has 338 yards and three TDs on 81 carries and five targets with an 84% snap rate, 74% rush share, and 65% route rate.

He's a locked-in lead back, and he should get his usual workload as a home favorite against the Cardinals, who are No. 28 in defensive rush SR (44.3%).

Williams is No. 3 in the NFL with 18 goal-line carries, and when the sportsbooks post his anytime TD prop I will probably bet it. Since last year, he has scored 30 TDs in 28 games (including playoffs), and this week I have him projected with a 58.9% chance to find the endzone, which translates to -144 (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator).

Use our Fantasy Life Prop Finder to find the best odds available for almost any player-focused bet.

Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs. Panthers

  • Buccaneers: -7.5
  • O/U: 48.5
  • TT: 28

Bucky Irving exited Week 14 early with hip and back injuries, but in his four full games since the Week 11 bye, he has 542 yards and three TDs on 68 carries and 14 targets.

And in Week 13 he specifically had 185 yards and a TD on 25 carries and three targets against the Panthers, who are No. 32 in defensive rush DVOA (13.4%, per FTN).

James Cook (Bills) vs. Jets

  • Bills: -9.5
  • O/U: 46.5
  • TT: 28

Since the Week 12 bye, the usage numbers for James Cook look bad.

  • Snap Rate: 43%
  • Rush Share: 43%
  • Route Rate: 36%

Cook is in a full-blown committee with Ty Johnson and Ray Davis. Over the past four weeks, he's the No. 30 RB in our Fantasy Life Utilization Score (6.1).

Even so, he still has 408 yards and five TDs on 45 carries and seven targets in four games since the bye, and he has impressed as a home favorite since last season (1,597 yards, 10 TDs in 17 games).

Cook missed Week 6 against the Jets, but he had 39 opportunities in two games against them last year. I'm not worried about Cook's workload.

The Checkdown

Chase Brown (Bengals -3, TT: 26.5) vs. Broncos: Since Week 9, Brown is the No. 1 RB in Utilization Score (9.5) without No. 2 RB Zack Moss (neck, IR).

Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks -3.5, TT: 23.5) at Bears: No. 1 RB Kenneth Walker (ankle) is uncertain, and Charbonnet has 435 yards and six TDs in his four Walker-less games this year.

Aaron Jones (Vikings -1, TT: 25) vs. Packers: "How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! … Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!" Jones had 139 yards against the Packers in Week 4.

Gus Edwards (Chargers -4, TT: 23) at Patriots: The California-domed Chargers might lean into the running game in the frigid New England elements, and the Pats are No. 3 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+5.3). 

Alexander Mattison (Raiders +1.5, TT: 19) at Saints: Without RBs Zamir White (quadriceps, IR) and Sincere McCormick (ankle, IR), Mattison had 12 carries and seven targets last week.

Top Week 17 WRs For Fantasy Football

Nico Collins (Texans) vs. Ravens

  • Texans: +5.5
  • O/U: 46.5
  • TT: 20.5

Nico Collins exited Week 5 with a hamstring injury, missed Weeks 6-10, and then used Week 11 as a ramp-up game—but since Week 12 he has 24-288-3 receiving on 36 targets in four games.

No. 2 WR Stefon Diggs (knee, IR) last played in Week 8. No. 3 WR Tank Dell (knee) is out after exiting last week with a severe-looking season-ending injury. No. 4 WR John Metchie (shoulder) missed last week and is uncertain for this week. And WR Diontae Johnson—just added off waivers from the Ravens—seems unlikely to make much of an impact in a #RevengeGame in a short week.

Essentially, the Texans WR room consists of Collins and some smattering of dust.

The Ravens are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (29.6).

Davante Adams (Jets) at Bills

  • Jets: +9.5
  • O/U: 46.5
  • TT: 18.5

I don't know if the Jets should want to keep QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Davante Adams next season … but I do know that Rodgers in four games since the Week 12 bye has endowed Adams with 48 targets, which he has converted into 30-441-5 receiving with a two-point conversion.

Those are some old-school Davante numbers.

In the secondary, the Bills might be without No. 1 CB Rasul Douglas (knee), SS Damar Hamlin (back, ribs), and FS Taylor Rapp (neck), all of whom missed last week.

Courtland Sutton (Broncos) at Bengals

  • Broncos: +3
  • O/U: 50
  • TT: 23.5

Don Draper thinking about Courtland Sutton's zero-target Week 7: “This never happened. It will shock you how much it never happened.”

Since the thing that definitely did not occur, Sutton has 50-651-4 receiving on 72 targets as well as 30 yards and a TD passing on two attempts in eight games, ranking No. 3 with a 47% share of air yards in that span.

Sutton is the one consistent functional pass-catching asset for the Broncos.

The Bengals are No. 27 in defensive pass DVOA (17.0%).

Khalil Shakir (Bills) vs. Jets

  • Bills: -9.5
  • O/U: 46.5
  • TT: 28

Khalil Shakir missed Week 5 with an injury and played sparingly in his Week 6 return, but in nine games since Week 7, he has a 78% route rate, 27% target rate, and 25% target share, which he has leveraged into a respectable 53-547-2 receiving on 73 targets.

My offseason supposition that Shakir could be the Bills No. 1 WR proved prescient, and his career mark of 9.9 yards per target speaks to his all-around playmaking ability.

The Jets secondary might be without three starters in No. 1 CB Sauce Gardner (hamstring), slot CB Michael Carter (back), and FS Tony Adams (ankle).

The Deep Route

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks -3.5, TT: 23.5) at Bears: In six games since the Week 10 bye, Smith-Njigba has been the No. 1 WR on the team with 43-521-3 receiving (along with 4-22-0 rushing) on a 92% route rate, 24% target rate, and 27% target share.

Jakobi Meyers (Raiders +1.5, TT: 19) at Saints: Since interim OC Scott Turner took over playcalling duties in Week 10, Meyers has 56 targets in six games, and the Saints are bereft in the secondary without CBs Marshon Lattimore (traded) and Paulson Adebo (leg, IR).

Terry McLaurin (Commanders -5, TT: 25.75) vs. Falcons: Following his two-target Week 11, McLaurin has 25-308-6 receiving on 30 targets in four games, and the Falcons are No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+6.1).

Jordan Addison (Vikings -1, TT: 25) vs. Packers: No. 1 WR Justin Jefferson is still the king, but Addison has 47-663-7 receiving in 10 games since the Week 6 bye, and the Packers are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (49.9%) and could be without No. 1 CB Jaire Alexander (knee).  

Calvin Ridley (Titans +1.5, TT: 19.75) at Jaguars: "If you prick us do we not bleed? If you tickle us do we not laugh? If you poison us do we not die? And if you wrong us shall we not revenge?" Ridley is the No. 7 WR with a 44% share of air yards, and he had 12 targets against the Jags in Week 14.

Darnell Mooney (Falcons +4, TT: 22) at Commanders: Mooney had a team-best 5-82-0 receiving last week in QB Michael Penix's first start, No. 1 WR Drake London (hamstring) is uncertain, and the Commanders might be without No. 1 CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring). 

The Top Week 17 TEs For Fantasy Football

Chig Okonkwo (Titans) at Jaguars

  • Titans: +1.5
  • O/U: 41
  • TT: 19.75

Given what we saw out of Chig Okonkwo last week, he upgrades to the high-end TE2 tier.

While I don't want to "buy high" after Okonkwo had a season-best 83% route rate and 31% target share in Week 16, the fact is that he has a highly encouraging 17-140-0 receiving on 21 targets since Week 15, when the Titans benched QB Will Levis in game for veteran Mason Rudolph.

With Rudolph as the starter, Okonkwo might still be discounted—especially against the Jags, who are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (28.8%).

The Hot Route

David Njoku (Browns +6.5, TT: 16.75) vs. Dolphins: QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson lowers the production expectations for everyone in the offense, but Njoku still had 8-66-0 receiving on 10 targets with him last week.

Dalton Schultz (Texans +5.5, TT: 20.5) vs. Ravens: Schultz has an 87% route rate since the Week 14 bye, and he might be the No. 2 pass catcher on the team now without WR Tank Dell (knee).

Payne Durham (Buccaneers -7.5, TT: 28) at Panthers: No. 1 TE Cade Otton (knee) is uncertain to play, and in his absence last week Durham had 5-29-0 receiving on seven targets and an 88% route rate. The Panthers are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (11.9).  

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
  • Short Down and Distance (SDD)
  • Long Down and Distance (LDD)
  • Dropback Over Expected (DBOE)

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