Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Buy Low On A League-Winning WR
Have one more week before your trade deadline? Jonathan Fuller is here with last-minute fantasy football trade targets just for you:
Most leagues are either approaching or past their fantasy football trade deadline, so this will be my final redraft trade targets article of the season. With that in mind, this edition is going to be primarily focused on identifying players who I think can be league winners in the fantasy playoffs. With just three weeks left in the regular season, you know whether or not your team can afford to start looking ahead to the playoffs or not. If not, you need to make whatever moves give you the best chance to win this week.
For those that can look ahead, Fantasy Life's strength of schedule tool, rest-of-season rankings, and trade analyzer can give you an advantage over your league as you prepare your roster for the fantasy playoffs. I used these tools to identify my top trade targets which are detailed in this article, but every league is different so be sure to leverage those tools to find ways to improve your roster.
Fantasy Football Trade Targets With League-Winning Upside
Jayden Reed - WR, Packers
Early this season it looked like Jayden Reed could be headed for a true breakout season. In the first two games that he played with Jordan Love (Week 1 and Week 4), Reed finished as the WR1 and WR2 with 33 and 27 PPR fantasy points in those games. Since then, he hasn't finished better than WR16 in any week.
Green Bay has been one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL this season and the WR room is likely to remain a rotation. On the surface, this doesn't seem like a situation to target for fantasy purposes, but I have good reason to think that will change.
This stat is both crazy and insightful because it points to how the Packers operate their offense. They want to be run first, and when they are, the game will flow through Josh Jacobs. However, in situations where they fall behind early or are being pushed by the opposing offense, the passing game tends to flow through Reed.
The extreme win/loss splits are partially noise (the numbers would look different if they didn't block that field goal in Chicago), but there is some truth to them. Green Bay is not an offense that is going to score points just for fun, we need them to be pushed to create the huge fantasy performances that win fantasy championships. So what does their schedule have in store?
Of the remaining six games on the Packers' schedule during fantasy football season, five of their opponents rank in the top half of the NFL in points per game and three are in the top-10. The only team that isn't? The Miami Dolphins who have averaged nearly 28 points per game since Tua returned four weeks ago. I don't expect every game to be a shootout where the Packers are forced to throw, but all of their remaining games have that potential so it seems like a safe bet that at least a few of them will.
How about Week 17 when fantasy championships are on the line? Green Bay will travel to face the Vikings who possess a good offense and the NFL's toughest run defense. Add in the fact that this game is in a dome and it sets up beautifully for Jayden Reed to deliver fantasy championships.
The best part is that Reed's perceived value has been steadily declining due to the lack of monster games since Week 4. It's worth floating offers to trade away guys like Calvin Ridley or Courtland Sutton who also have a volatile profile but have had a big game more recently. I would be happy to send away any FLEX-level WR like that to acquire Reed, and bonus points if they're on a worse offense or haven't had their bye yet.
Bucky Irving - RB, Buccaneers
The Bucs backfield has been a frustrating committee situation this year with two or three players contributing each week. Recently, Tampa Bay has settled into using Bucky Irving as the primary rushing back and Rachaad White as the main receiving back. Both Irving and White have been valuable fantasy assets in these roles and they both managed to finish as top-7 fantasy RBs in Week 10.
The Bucs are likely happy with this split, keeping both players fresh and letting them play the role they are best at. If nothing changes Irving appears properly valued (RB24 in our rest-of-season rankings) based on his current role, but this ignores the upside that exists if he consolidates more of the work.
Not only is Irving clearly the superior rusher, but he also isn't far behind White as a pass catcher.
Player | Yards after contact per attempt | Missed tackles forced per attempt | Explosive rush rate | Yards per route run |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 3.78 | 0.31 | 13.5% | 1.41 |
| Rachaad White | 2.98 | 0.14 | 5% | 1.53 |
Even with a 4-6 record, the Bucs are firmly in the playoff hunt thanks to the fact that they play in NFC South. Coming out of Tampa Bay's bye I expect Irving's usage to continue trending in the right direction.
However, even if it doesn't improve as much as I would hope, the Bucs schedule is so favorable that Irving could still be an important part of league-winning rosters.
Here's how the Bucs remaining opponents rank in terms of points allowed to opposing RBs (with 1st being the most points allowed):
- Week 12 - Giants (9th)
- Week 13 - Panthers (1st)
- Week 14 - Raiders (12th)
- Week 15 - Chargers (29th)
- Week 16 - Cowboys (6th)
- Week 17 - Panthers (1st)
Other than that Week 15 matchup against the Chargers this schedule is incredibly favorable for Irving as the Bucs should be leading in most of those contests and able to run the ball at will. He should project as a solid RB2 if he keeps the same role, but if it improves he could easily be a top-10 weekly player at the position.
Ideally, I would like to trade away someone who is either a lesser talent or plays on a worse offense than Irving. Trading away players like Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, or Tony Pollard for Irving would be a significant upgrade so I would start. Those probably won't get the deal done in most leagues though so I would be willing to go as far as trading away players like D'Andre Swift or J.K. Dobbins who are still in really good roles on solid offenses, but are showing signs of slowing down.
Players To Trade Away In Fantasy Football
D'Andre Swift - RB, Bears
Hand up, I'll admit that Swift is having a better season than I expected, and he deserves full credit for that. Despite that, he still makes my list of players to trade away this week before your trade deadline. The two main reasons for this recommendation are Swift's declining efficiency and a tough remaining schedule.
In Weeks 4 through 8, Swift reeled off an extremely impressive stretch of games where scored in four straight and topped 20 PPR points three times in a row. Since then, he has still been solid, even finishing as the RB12 in PPR scoring last week but the efficiency hasn't been there. In his last two games, Swift has been below 2.0 yards after contact per attempt and has totaled just 19 receiving yards despite running 36 routes across those matchups.
At the same time, Roschon Johnson could be earning a bigger role. In a critical game against Green Bay last week (which was also Thomas Brown's first game as OC) Johnson tied his season high with 10 rush attempts and also had two carries inside the 5-yard line (vs. just one for Swift). Any decline in workload without a bounce back in efficiency will be devastating to Swift's fantasy outlook.
To make matters worse, the Bears schedule features multiple games against two of the NFL's top run defenses. Chicago has to play both the Vikings (Weeks 12 & 15) and the Lions (Weeks 13 & 16) twice over their next five games. Minnesota has given up the second fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs while Detroit has given up the fourth fewest. Not only will it be difficult to run on those teams, but the Bears are also unlikely to be in a positive game script that would allow them to feed Swift.
It's going to be difficult to trust Swift going forward so now is the time to get what you can for him in a trade to set your team up for success. I already discussed my top RB trade target, Bucky Irving, earlier in this article so I would strongly suggest that be the first trade offer you make. If you can't get that deal done, players like Brian Robinson and Tyrone Tracy would also be on my list to target.
Tee Higgins - WR, Bengals
I want to be clear right out of the gate, I would be happy to have Tee Higgins on my roster for the rest of the season. He's a good player on a great offense, so I view him in a very different category than someone like D'Andre Swift, who I would like to trade away for anything close to fair value.
Higgins is more of a sell-high candidate because he's coming off of a great game where he racked up 148 receiving yards and a score. Moving forward, several risks make me nervous about Higgins living up to fantasy managers' expectations which is why I believe it is worth exploring the trade market.
The biggest risk is that with last week's loss, the Bengals are just 4-7 and firmly on the outside of the playoff picture. They will likely need to win the rest of their games to get in. That scenario isn't impossible, but it is much more likely that they will be eliminated from the playoff race by the time we get to the most important weeks of the fantasy football season.
This is where Higgins' contract situation becomes important. He is widely expected to leave the Bengals after this season, so if they are out of the playoffs his top priority instantly becomes staying healthy so he can get paid this offseason. This makes him much less likely to play through any sort of injury and could even impact how the Bengals use him if they want to prioritize playing young guys who are under contract next year.
Another risk is the Bengals schedule which, after their bye, features games against the Steelers, Titans, and Broncos. All three of those teams rank in the bottom seven of the NFL for points allowed to opposing WRs and two of those matchups (Titans and Broncos) are in the fantasy playoffs. The Bengals offense is good enough to put up points in those games, but the schedule is worth noting because they could choose to attack these teams on the ground.
Since the Bengals are on bye this week, your best bet is to look for a trade partner who is already in good shape for the playoffs and can afford to have Higgins out of their lineup this week. That can also give you a good excuse as to why you're trying to trade him away rather than all of the reasons I just went through.
As I said at the top, I don't want to trade Higgins away for just anything, there is a scenario where he could be very good down the stretch. I would try to target someone like Mike Evans or Marvin Harrison, someone that you can feel confident putting in your starting lineup each week.
Another great option could be trying to get Jauan Jennings plus something else if your league isn't respecting Jennings' role in the 49ers offense because he isn't a big name. I would gladly take a perceived downgrade at WR from Higgins to Jennings to upgrade at a different position.
