In today's “Regression Session”, Jonathan Fuller takes a look at fantasy football trades to make ahead of Week 6 based on expected positive or negative regression:

Regression Session is back after taking last week off while I was on vacation. As we head into Week 6, we're hitting a critical time in the fantasy football calendar. We're almost halfway to the fantasy playoffs and you should have a good idea whether your team is a championship contender or needs serious help just to make the playoffs.

Either way, now is the time to get aggressive and make trades to set your team up for success.

To help with that, be sure to keep using the awesome tools we have available with a FantasyLife+ subscription. Usage data is changing every week and there is no better place to see the trends for every player than in the Utilization Report.

And if you're negotiating any trades be sure to check out our rest-of-season rankings as well as our fantasy football trade analyzer to make sure you're getting a good deal.

Fantasy Football Trade Targets - Positive Regression Candidates

Breece Hall | RB | NYJ

One of the more disappointing results through the first five weeks that seemingly isn't injury-related has been the extreme underperformance of Breece Hall. Last season, Hall was one of the most dynamic playmakers down the stretch and there was a lot of optimism that he could be even better this year.

Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case with Hall averaging a dismal 3.0 YPC (57th out of 59 qualifying RBs). He has managed to score three times already this season which has prevented the bottom from completely falling out, but he has massively underperformed his expected fantasy production based on the workload he has gotten.

Hall's full season average in 2023 was 4.5 YPC and he was coming off of a major knee injury. Through five games this season he hasn't managed to average better than 4.4 YPC in any contest. His yards after contact are down as well, sitting at 2.98 yards after contact per attempt after averaging 3.41 (2023) and 4.13 (2022) in his two previous seasons.

Perhaps the worst news for fantasy managers is that Hall hasn't been heavily involved in the passing game, especially over the last three games. During that time he has averaged just three receptions for 19 yards per game. It's unacceptable usage for one of the league's best receiving backs, in my opinion. 

Unless there is an injury that we don't know about, it's hard to imagine that Hall will stay among the NFL's least efficient RBs. There is also some uncertainty about how the offense will look following the firing of Robert Saleh and change of the offensive play caller. I'm hopeful that these changes (particularly removing Hackett from play calling) can lead to better efficiency and more work in the passing game for Hall.

Breece Hall Trade To Make in Fantasy Football

Hall is a great buy-low candidate before we see how things look in New York following the coaching changes. At the RB position, I would love to flip an aging veteran who has started hot (Alvin Kamara) for a younger star who has struggled out of the gate. I'm also a fan of packaging together two mid-tier players to acquire a potential stud for the rest of the season.

Of course, the trade that makes sense will depend on your league so be sure to use our fantasy football trade analyzer to give yourself an advantage when working those trade negotiations. 

As you can see above, our trade analyzer favors the Kamara side. So, doing what we do in terms of forecasting positive or negative regression, this could be a great opportunity to buy Hall in your leagues.

Ja'Lynn Polk | WR | NE

The Patriots are finally making the switch to their rookie QB and while that won't suddenly turn them into a good offense, it does give them a better chance at creating explosive plays and fantasy value for their weapons.

 

One player who should benefit from the QB change is rookie WR Ja'Lynn Polk. He's been getting more involved each week, including back-to-back weeks with a 20%+ target share and an aDOT of 15+ yards. That type of role has a much better shot of delivering big fantasy performances with a QB willing and able to throw the ball downfield, something Drake Maye was known for during his college career.

Polk was also incredibly close to scoring his second receiving TD of the season this past week but ended up with a disappointing box score so he isn't on the radar of most casual fantasy players. Thankfully that can work to our advantage as he is still available in most leagues. 

I think Polk is a great add on the waiver wire if you need WR depth. I'm excited to see what the New England offense can do with Maye at QB and Polk has a good shot to be their leading receiver.

Players To Trade Away in Fantasy Football - Negative Regression Candidates

Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR

The Panthers offense has been functional with Andy Dalton under center and that has made Chuba Hubbard a very valuable fantasy asset. Since Dalton took over in Week 3, Hubbard has averaged 105 rushing yards per game and has scored three times.

Unfortunately for Hubbard, several factors are working against him sustaining this strong production.

First, the Panthers' offensive line is struggling with injuries after their starting center was placed on season-ending injured reserve, and their starting right tackle was ruled out for Week 6 (and possibly longer). To make matters worse, the schedule is about to get tougher for the running game as well.

Each of the Panthers' last three opponents (Raiders, Bengals, Bears) ranks in the bottom half of the league (i.e. giving up the most points to opposing RBs), while each of their next four opponents (Falcons, Commanders, Broncos, and Saints) all rank in the top half of the league for points allowed to opposing RBs.

I wouldn't classify any of those upcoming matchups as truly elite run defenses, but they haven't been giving up a ton of points to RBs through the first five weeks.

Finally, the biggest threat to Hubbard's fantasy value is the looming presence of rookie RB Jonathon Brooks, who is working his way back from a torn ACL.

Carolina is being understandably cautious with their rookie but he should join their practices soon and then join the lineup within a couple weeks. Once he is on the field, he is going to cut into Hubbard's workload, with a running-back-by-committee situation being the most likely outcome.

Chuba Hubbard Trade To Make In Fantasy Football

I think the next week or two is the prime opportunity to trade away Chuba Hubbard. Once Brooks returns to practice Hubbard's value will likely decline by the week, but there hasn't been much discussion about that yet, so your leaguemates may not be aware.

Ideally, I would like to turn Hubbard into an ascending player like Bucky Irving.

Similar to the trade example for Hall outlined above, our Trade Analyzer greatly favors the Hubbard side, indicating that this is a great time to sell high on Hubbard for an ascending player like Irving before the masses catch on.

I would also love to trade for Brooks, although that seems less likely if someone in your league drafted him and stashed him on IR this entire time.

Keon Coleman | WR | BUF

Buffalo's rookie WR has scored in two of his last three games which might make him seem like an interesting bench stash or a good flex play in deep leagues.

The reality is that his usage has been terrible and it is going to make him very difficult to trust for fantasy football until that changes.

Coleman was a polarizing prospect, but when the Bills drafted him 33rd overall there was plenty of optimism that he would be the primary target in the passing game. He might still become that eventually, but through the first five games, he hasn't been asked to do much besides run deep and try to win a couple of contested catches each week.

After hitting a 90% route rate in Weeks 1 and 2, Coleman hasn't come close to that over the last couple of games. He is seeing targets in the end zone which will allow him to pop up for occasionally relevant games when he scores, but he isn't being schemed touches or given easy looks. His role is so bad that the PFF Expected Points model has him at just 5.1 expected half PPR points per game over the last three games, 81st among WRs over that stretch.

 

The only caveat here is that Coleman is a rookie so there is a decent chance his role could evolve as the season progresses and he gets more comfortable in the offense. If that happens, I'm definitely willing to reconsider this position but for now, he is not someone that I have any interest in for redraft fantasy leagues.

Keon Coleman Trade To Make In Fantasy Football

Let's be realistic, there aren't many trades for bench receivers in fantasy football, but Coleman could be a good piece to throw into a 2-for-1 trade where you upgrade to get the best player in the deal in exchange for two serviceable assets.

There are positives you can point to like his solid target share and two TDs while angling to acquire a player you feel better about for the rest of the season.