Welcome to the Utilization Report, where Dwain McFarland highlights his top fantasy football usage takeaways heading into Week 6.

The Top 10 Fantasy Football Usage Takeaways for Week 6

Let's follow the data to identify the top waiver wire options, trade targets, upgrades, and downgrades based on what we learned in Week 5.

Note: as you read through the Utilization Report, you'll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it's more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.

Priority Waiver Wire Recommendations

1. Tank Bigsby is forcing a timeshare in Jacksonville.

Bigsby bypassed Travis Etienne in Week 5 for the lead rushing role on the Jaguars, garnering 57% of the rushing attempts. The snap shares (39% vs. 40%) remained close, with Etienne receiving preferential treatment in the passing game with a 44% route participation versus 24% for Bigsby.

 

Bigsby has averaged 30% of snaps and 46% of the rushing totes in three healthy games. He reached 50% of the rushing attempts in Week 1 as well. The second-year back has handled three of four attempts inside the five-yard line over the last two games.

Doug Pederson claimed Etienne is still their guy when asked about the backfield split after the game. In Pederson's mind, this is likely a true statement, but here is the thing with coach speak: it is all relative. Etienne probably still has a slight lead in snaps the rest of the way, but make no mistake about it, things have changed in Jacksonville.

While I expect a split backfield the rest of the way, Bigsby is outplaying Etienne, flashing a rare combination of speed and power that could help his role grow as the season progresses. Of course, if Etienne went down, Bigsby would immediately become a borderline RB1.

Hopefully, you grabbed Bigsby last week on the cheap as the No. 1 rated rest-of-season rated pickup. However, if you didn't, don't be shy–he should be rostered in all medium and larger-sized leagues.

Bigsby UPGRADES to RB4 territory and offers RB1 upside should his role grow or if Etienne suffers an injury. He is a HIGH-PRIORITY waiver wire target.

  • Small/Medium league FAAB: 5-10%
  • Large league FAAB: 25-30%
  • Sicko FAAB: 50%+

2. Tyrone Tracy has the talent profile we covet as a handcuff option.

Devin Singletary missed Week 5 due to a groin injury, and Tracy flashed. The rookie has served as the RB2 but might have earned more playing time after totaling 129 rushing yards on 18 attempts (7.2 yards per carry).

Tracy led the team with a 62% snap share, 58% rush share, and 43% route participation rate on his way to a mid-range RB2 finish with 14 fantasy points.

 

It is worth noting that Eric Gray was off to a hot start, but a fumble at the Seahawks' one-yard line that resulted in a Seattle TD put him in the doghouse. If Singletary misses another game, we can't completely rule Gray out.

For a player who only played running back for one year in college (previously a wide receiver), Tracy showed a natural feel for the position. He displayed patience, vision, change-of-direction skills, and the acceleration to get to the second layer of the defense quickly. It is a small sample, but Tracy might be the player everyone hoped Antonio Gibson would be. His traits could unlock massive upside for the rookie should he find more playing time due to injury or a change of heart by the Giants coaching staff regarding their pecking order.

Tracy is a priority stash-play. He is an RB5 who could quickly climb to RB3 territory with expanded playing time and offers RB2 upside in games without Singletary.

3. Not available in my league, pal! (Available in 40 to 60% of leagues)

These players aren't available in sicko leagues (I feel ya), but believe it or not, most of the Milky Way galaxy doesn't play in a sicko league. These players are prioirity targets if available.

Rico Dowdle | RB | Cowboys (Available in 44% of Yahoo leagues)

Dowdle registered a season-high in rush attempts (67%) on his way to 19.4 fantasy points against a tough Steelers run defense. Could this be the beginning of a backfield takeover in Dallas? Maybe, but his snap shares have remained steady, at 47% on the season.

 

Dowdle's 7.5 Utilization Score was by far the highest mark of the season, and it would mean a significant boost in value if it became a trend. Over the last four years, the average RBs in that range have mostly been RB2s.

  • RB1 finishes: 12%
  • RB2 finishes: 71%
  • RB3 finishes: 18%

Dowdle hasn't been great, but he has outperformed Ezekiel Elliott across the board.

  • Missed tackles forced per attempt: 20% vs. 7%
  • Average yards after contact: 2.48 vs. 2.30
  • 10-plus yard attempts: 7.4% vs. 0%

The Cowboys could push Dowdle back into a lesser role in the coming games. Still, he is a priority waiver target because this could be the beginning of a trend, and we don't have the luxury of waiting–he won't be available after this Tuesday in most leagues.

Dowdle UPGRADES to high-end RB3 status and offers RB2 upside if Week 5 is the beginning of a trend. He is a must-add option if you are in need at the position.

Darnell Mooney | WR | Falcons (52% availability)

Don't look now, but Mooney is the WR15 in fantasy, averaging 15 points per contest. The veteran WR appears locked into the No. 2 role for the Falcons with a surprising 24% target share and 45% air yards share.

 

Mooney's 7.3 Utilization Score indicates that he is likely a WR2 or high-end WR3 the rest of the way, based on his comp group (14.4 PPG).

  • High-end WR1 finishes: 3%
  • Low-end WR1 finishes: 6%
  • High-end WR2 finishes: 23%
  • Low-end WR2 finishes: 29%
  • High-end WR3 finishes: 32%
  • Low-end WR3 finishes: 3%

Kirk Cousins looked fantastic in Week 5, throwing for over 500 yards, and the Falcons have the weapons to make noise as an offense. They started the year as a run-heavy operation but have settled in the No. 6 team in dropback rate over expected (DBOE) at 3.6% after the last two performances (11% and 18%).

Mooney UPGRADES to borderline WR2 status and should be rostered in all fantasy formats.

Jakobi Meyers | WR | Raiders (46% availability)

While a Davante Adams trade isn't a certainty, the intent is there–the Raiders will move on with the right offer. With this news, Meyers gets a significant rest-of-season upgrade as the new No. 1 WR in Las Vegas. The veteran WR has a history as a WR2-worthy target earner, and over the last two games without Adams, he has a 32% target share.

 

Of course, we can't go overboard because a 32% target share in this offense doesn't mean the same thing as if we were talking about a team with a quality QB situation. Luckily for us, the Utilization Score already accounts for this by factors for offensive volume and accounts for fantasy points as well.

Over the last two games, Meyers has a 6.8 Utilization Score. Here is how his comps have fared:

  • WR2 finishes: 21%
  • WR3 finishes: 41%
  • WR4 finishes: 39%

It is worth noting that Week 5 was an extraordinarily tough matchup against a Broncos defense that has shut down every WR1, which could skew this sample to the negative side. However, we also know it isn't realistic to assume a 32% target share for Meyers the rest of the way, so it all likely washes out.

Meyers UPGRADES to low-end WR3 status and offers WR2 upside in a perfect runout; he should be rostered in most fantasy leagues.

Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | Giants (47% availability)

Robinson made this column last week, so I won't go into great depth, but below is an updated range of outcomes based on his Utilization Score (7.2) comps:

  • WR1 finishes: 0% (primarily due to low air yards)
  • WR2 finishes: 58%
  • WR3 finishes: 27%
  • WR4 finishes: 16%

One caveat is the increase in route participation in Week 6 without Malik Nabers in the game. That might be slightly inflating the outcomes here, causing me to lean more toward the WR3 range, but a WR2 finish is definitely in play if Robinson sustains his 28% target share. Based on my history of doing this, I doubt Robinson will win your league, but he is good enough to help you get by at your WR3 position of flex, and that matters.

Robinson is a mid-range WR3 that offers WR2 upside in PPR formats. He should be rostered in all PPR and half-PPR formats–especially with bye weeks here.

Josh Downs | WR | Colts (60% availability)

Downs has a 30% target share since returning from injury in Week 3. He has the skill set to win at all field levels, but right now, the Colts are limiting most of his utilization to underneath. Downs has a 5.9 aDOT, leading to a low air yards share of 18%.

The second-year WR comps are the same as Wan'Dale Robinson, but there are a couple of caveats.

  1. Downs could flourish in a way Robinson can't if the Colts deploy him downfield more often. However, that seems to be the role they want Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell to play (at least for now). From this standpoint, Downs offers more upside than Robinson.
     
  2. Joe Flacco is inflating Downs' fantasy points per game, impacting his Utilization Score. The Colts pass more and enjoy a much higher completion rate with Flacco under center. From this perspective, Downs offers more downside than Robinson.

Downs is a WR2 with Flacco under center but only a WR4 when Richardson returns unless they give him more downfield opportunities.

4. Stash plays: patience and foresight are required.

If you play in a sicko league, here are some names that are more likely to be available. They should not be sitting on the wire due to potential value in the future, but they won't be helping your fantasy squad in Week 6.

Ty Chandler | RB | Vikings (72% availability)

Aaron Jones suffered a hip injury against the Jets, which opened the door for a much larger role for Chandler. Chandler dominated on 10 drives without Jones.

  • Snaps: 83%
  • Attempts: 79%
  • Routes: 56%
  • Targets: 11%

Chandler only managed 5.9 fantasy points, but those numbers would make him a borderline RB1 in more weeks than not in an explosive offense like the Vikings. The Vikings have a bye in Week 6, so there is a chance Aaron Jones is ready for Week 7. Still, Chandler's role in Week 5 is a reminder of his role if Jones misses time, and coaches aren't always the most forthcoming around player injuries.

Chandler is a high-end RB5 stash option, but with Jones's injury lingering, he should be rostered in most medium-sized and larger leagues. If Jones misses time, he immediately enters the RB2 conversation.

Blake Corum | RB | Rams (83% availability)

Corum registered a snap for only the second time this season with a 14% share.

 

He was still firmly behind Kyren Williams, handling only 18% of the rushing attempts, but the rookie re-enters the high-end handcuff conversation.

Corum is an RB5 stash play that could still offer RB1 upside if something happened to WIlliams. Corum should be rostered in deep leagues.

Jordan Whittington | WR | Rams (85% availability)

Whittington has taken over a starting role over the last two games, with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua sidelined. During those two games, he has been impressive, leading the team with a 25% target share and 14.1 points per game.

 

The Rams have a bye in Week 6, and Kupp and Nacua should return to the lineup soon, so we can't count on Whittington in the immediate future. However, Sean McVay is a mastermind and is one of only a handful of NFL coaches who can elevate WR to insane levels with his scheme.

Whittington has a 7.3 Utilization Score over this two-game stretch. This is a small sample alert, but his comps averaged 14.4 points, 48% registered a WR2 finish, and 36% notched WR3 campaigns.

Whittington is a WR6 stash play and is an excellent handcuff to Kupp and Nacua if they are on your roster. If either player suffers a setback upon return, Whittington offers WR2 upside.

Note: Read the Utilization Bytes section at the bottom of this column for more waiver wire options. It is loaded with nuggets from every team, including waiver wire tidbits (i.e., should you buy the big Week 5 performances from Alec Pierce, Jalen Tolbert, and Darius Slayton?).

Navigating the Fantasy Football Trade Market

To truly set your fantasy football brain free, you must move away from polarizing takes around players. The truth is that every player has a potential range of outcomes, which means that any player could be a buy or sell candidate simultaneously!

This section of the Utilization Report aims to help you understand the range of outcomes on a handful of players so you can work your magic. Based on what I think is most likely achievable, I may label players as sell-or-buy candidates, but remember, the real secret is in the outcome ranges so that you can adapt.

5.  What should we do with Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson?

Hall and Robinson are depreciating in value in season-long formats. Based on data from Fantasycalc.com, the two backs are valued similarly to Kyren Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Jonathan Taylor. In Best Ball Resurrection drafts on Underdog, Hall is the RB3 at pick 11.7, and Robinson is the RB7 at pick 14.8.

Overall, the market is about right for both players, assuming that the first five weeks of the season isn't a static view of their talent profiles or roles. However, both must improve in one or both areas to reach their high-end potential based on their historical Utilization Score comps.

For the sake of this exercise, I will walk through Hall in great detail and quickly run through Robinson. They are very close.

Breece Hall

Hall averages 14.7 fantasy points per game, but his Utilization Score (8.4) suggests he is due for positive regression. His comps have averaged 15.9 points per game, which would make Hall a mid-range to low-end RB1 in most seasons. However, the actual distribution of outcomes is much broader.

  • High-end RB1 finishes: 21%
  • Low-end RB1 finishes: 26%
  • High-end RB2 finishes: 42%
  • Low-end RB2 finishes: 11%

Again, it is essential to remember that these outcomes are based on the first five weeks, and Hall's role could change, and he could play better moving forward. However, this range is helpful for us as we consider Hall in the context of trades. Based on this information, here is how I would handle hall in the trade market.

Recommendations if you are the seller:

  • Sell if someone is willing to pay a high-end RB1 price tag.
  • Consider selling at a low-end RB1 price tag if you hit on other RBs in your draft, and it fetches you a low-end WR1 or better.
  • Hold if offers are below low-end RB1 value.

Recommendations if you are the buyer:

  • Buy if someone is willing to sell Hall at the price of high-end RB2 or lower.
  • Consider buying if someone is willing to sell Hall at the price of a low-end RB1, and you can trade from a position where you have excess depth.
  • Don't buy if Hall requires paying a high-end RB1 price tag unless you are loaded at other positions.

Bijan Robinson

Robinson averages 13.5 points per game with a Utilization Score of 7.9. His comps have averaged 14.9 points, suggesting Robinson is due for positive regression. While Robinson's comps have provided a similar RB1 hit rate, the number of high-end RB1s is lower.

  • High-end RB1 finishes: 5%
  • Low-end RB1 finishes: 40%
  • High-end RB2 finishes: 35%
  • Low-end RB2 finishes: 10%
  • High-end RB3 finishes: 5%

Honestly, I wouldn't get overly caught up in the differences between Robinson and Hall. They have very similar talent profiles. Getting over-prescriptive with this data isn't the goal–think of these more as guidelines. So, I recommend using the same guidance outlined above for Hall on when you should be willing to buy or sell Robinson. Just know there might be slightly less upside and slightly more downside.

6.  Terry McLaurin is a high-upside and limited-downside trade target.

McLaurin ranks 33rd in fantasy points per game (13.1), but his underlying data tells us he might only be scratching the surface. The newly-invigorated WR has a 7.5 Utilization Score (16th) through five weeks of action, thanks to a budding connection with Jayden Daniels as the clear-cut No. 1 in Washington. McLaurin is on pace for a career-high 28% target share.

 

Over the last three games, McLaurin and Daniels have vibed at new levels. Over that period, McLaurin has a whopping 8.6 Utilization Score. However, let's stick with the full-season Utilization Score to create a range of outcomes for the veteran WR based on his comps.

  • WR1 finishes: 18%
  • High-end WR2 finishes: 30%
  • Low-end WR2 finishes: 27%
  • High-end WR3 finishes: 24%

Based on this data, we can confidently target McLaurin as a low-end WR2, which leaves us a ton of upside and limited downside. Essentially, his floor is his historical WR3 range. If his utilization over the last three games is a trend and not variance (both are possible), his evaluation would morph into a low-end WR1 (64% of comps).

McLaurin is a BUY-LOW trade target if you can acquire him at the price of a WR3 or low-end WR2.

7.  Rhamondre Stevenson provides a chance to sell high (again).

Thanks to concerns over the Patriots' offense, Stevenson was a sell-high candidate after the first two games. Guess what? Those same concerns remain, but things are now even more dire because Stevenson has lost his once-dominating grip over the backfield.

 

Lucky for us, Stevenson managed 19.1 fantasy points in Week 5 in a manageable matchup against the Dolphins, creating another opportunity to sell. He ranks 22nd in points per game (14) for the season but is trending down. Stevenson's Utilization score now sits at a 6.2 since the Patriots backfield rotation started in Week 3. 

Yes, injuries and fumbles have been a factor, but on offenses like this, it is crucial to understand the worst-case scenario, and based on the last three contests, here are Stevenson's comps:

  • RB1 finishes: 0%
  • RB2 finishes: 5%
  • RB3 finishes: 55%
  • RB4 finishes: 46%

Get out while you still can, y'all!!! If anyone is willing to pay an RB2 price, get the deal done (there are a lot of fantasy managers hurting at RB).

8.  Now is the time to buy Miami Dolphins players.

Three weeks ago, I recommended selling on Miami players while you could. It is time to flip the script as we near a potential return for Tua Tagovailoa in Week 8. We don't know for sure what will happen with Tagovailoa, but a little birdy with second-hand NFL contacts told me to expect Tagovailoa back soon. 

Y'all, I have no desire to try and become an NFL insider and am not trying to act like I know something big–I am purely sharing the information that was passed along to me. The veteran QB has been symptom-free and is eligible to return to practice after Week 7, so we needed a mindset shift either way.

Here is what two markets have to say about the value of the big-name Dolphins:

Depending on your roster and risk tolerance, you might consider these prices too high, which is okay. But let's break each one down. There are more scenarios than two, but for simplicity, let's look at the polar ends: a) Tagovailoa returns in Week 8 and plays the rest of the season and b) Tagovailoa misses the rest of the season.

  • Tyreek Hill: top-three WR versus boom-bust WR3 → low-end WR1 splits the difference
  • De'Von Achane: top-six upside versus low-end RB2 → low-end RB2 splits the difference
  • Jaylen Waddle: WR2 upside versus WR5 downside → low-end WR3 splits the difference

You might disagree with my assessment of these upside and downside values, but I believe they are directionally accurate based on what we have seen from this group over the last two years versus the last few games.

It is important to consider that these are averages across markets. These players can be had at prices below their average, so I recommend checking in on all of them. Additionally, the Dolphins' bye this weekend creates another advantage–your league mates can't use them and may be hurting due to injuries or bye weeks. Understand the pain points of your potential trade partner.

Upgrades, Downgrades and Emerging Trends

9.  Kenneth Walker had a bad game, and it was tremendous.

Coming off of a 33.6 fantasy point performance, many were befuddled by Walker's curious stat line that included only five rushing attempts. Yeah, that was pretty wild. But what if I told you his Week 5 performance is good news for his rest-of-season value? Well, it is true. 

Walker is officially an every-down back. Even in a game where the Seahawks dropped back to pass on an astounding 88% of plays, Walker posted a 68% snap share. Last season, Walker would have been dust in this sort of game. However, he has a healthy 54% route participation and has bogarted 82% of the two-minute offense in his three games.  

 

Walker now has an 8.9 Utilization Score on the season, which is fantastic news. Similar players have averaged 16.8 points per contest and boasted a tight range of favorable outcomes.

  • High-end RB1 finishes: 38%
  • Low-end RB1 finishes: 46%
  • High-end RB2 finishes: 15%

The only thing holding Walker back from more is Seattle's pass-first mentality. Through the first five weeks, the Seahawks rank No. 1 in DBOE at 10%. For those new to DBOE, that means they drop back to pass 10% more than their peers in similar game situations.

The good news is that Week 5 was as heavy as you can get (23% DBOE), and Walker survived with a solid fantasy outing (14.6 points). He averages 22.4 points per contest in his three games despite an average DBOE of 7%.

Walker UPGRADES to mid-range RB1 status as my No. 5 back the rest of the way. I prefer him over Breece Hall, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, and James Cook.

10.  D'Andre Swift: Example 4,738 of why we shouldn't overreact.

Just so we are clear, that headline is directed at the man in the mirror. It was hard to have much confidence in Swift after averaging 5.8 points over the first three games. However, given his utilization then, I shouldn't have needed more time to push him down into low-end RB3 territory. I should have taken him through my typical one-tier-at-a-time process.

Two weeks later, Swift's utilization is in a similar range, but his fantasy production has exploded with 24.8 points per game. He is now averaging 13.4 points for the season with a 7.6 Utilization Score.

 

That puts him in a pretty nice position moving forward. Backs with a similar Utilization Score have averaged 14.3 points, and most have delivered an RB1 or RB2 finish.

  • High-end RB1 finishes: 0%
  • Low-end RB1 finishes: 29%
  • High-end RB2 finishes: 35%
  • Low-end RB2 finishes: 24%
  • High-end RB3 finishes: 12%

Swift UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 status.

More Fantasy Football Usage Takeaways

QB Utilization Bytes

  • Caleb Williams: Williams played his best game of the season in Week 5, making the routine look routine–something that had been missing. His completion rate has dramatically improved, reaching 74% and 69% over the last two games. Williams UPGRADES to mid-range QB2 territory.
     
  • Deshaun Watson: Downgrade to low-end QB2 status.
     
  • Josh Allen: Holding steady as a high-end QB1.
     
  • Kirk Cousins: Upgrade to high-end QB2 territory. Available in 49% of leagues.
     
  • Trevor Lawrence: Holding steady as a mid-range QB2. Available in 46% of leagues.

RB Utilization Bytes

  • Antonio Gibson: Gibson registered a season-high 47% snap share and 43% route participation. He started over Stevenson but didn't expand his role as a rusher. Gibson is a low-end RB4 and is available in 62% of leagues if you need some gross bye-week coverage in PPR formats.
     
  • Chase Brown: Zack Moss suffered an ankle injury, and his status for Week 6 is uncertain. Brown has recently forced a closer split in rushing attempts, but Moss is still the preferred passing-down option. If Moss misses time, Brown UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 status.
     
  • Chuba Hubbard: Hubbard continues to perform at a high level, averaging 16.5 points, with Miles Sanders stealing 38% of snaps. However, the return of Jonathon Brooks continues to linger, and this backfield could be a three-way split soon. If you have a local manager desperate for RB help willing to pay a high-end RB2 price tag for Hubbard, now is a good time to consider moving on.
     
  • Jaylen Warren: Warren hasn't played in the last two games, but Najee Harris looks lackluster. We can't trust anything about an Arthur Smith offense, but talent isn't an issue for Warren. Warren is available in 48% of Yahoo leagues and offers contingent RB2 upside if the coaching staff tires of Harris' inefficiency.
     
  • Jaylen Wright: We can't touch the Dolphins offense with a ten-foot pole right now, but that could soon change if Tagovailoa returns. With De'Von Achane knocked out of the game after two drives (concussion), Wright was the next man up after Raheem Mostert with a 34% snap share and 34% rush share. Wright is an RB6 stash option and is available in 92% of leagues, but remember, Miami has a bye in Week 6.
     
  • Jerome Ford: The Browns continue to confuse us with their RB deployment. Ford was a no-show in the first half of the game and only managed to scrape together 7.9 points thanks to late-game snaps when Cleveland just wanted the game to end. Nick Chubb will soon return to this pitiful offense, so don't be afraid to trade Ford away.
     
  • KenDre Miller: Miller returned to full practice last week. Despite being inactive against the Chiefs, Miller is a name to remember in deep leagues. He is available in 93% of leagues, and the Saints apparently have zero interest in giving touches to Jamaal Williams. Miller UPGRADES to RB6 stash status.
     
  • Roschon Johnson: Johnson sniped two rushing TDs from D'Andre Swift to fuel a 14.5-point outing. However, his role remained limited, with a 30% snap share. The second-year back is a low-end RB4 and is available in 80% of Yahoo leagues.
     
  • Travis Etienne: Etienne notched a season-low 26% rush share. While we can't overreact to one data point, his high for the season in three healthy Bigsby games is 46%, and the average is 39%. In those three games, his Utilization Score is 6.1, which isn't something we can ignore. Etienne's comps averaged 11.2 points per contest over half finished in RB3 territory, while only 28% achieved RB2 status. Etienne DOWNGRADES to borderline RB2 territory and is a SELL-HIGH candidate.
     
  • Trey Sermon: Sermon led the Colts backfield in Week 5 with a 58% snap share and 52% of the attempts. Tyler Goodson slightly bested Sermon in passing-down duties 44% to 33%. If Jonathan Taylor misses more time, Sermon offers borderline RB2 value and is available in 48% of Yahoo leagues.

WR Utilization Bytes

  • Alec Pierce: Pierce averages 13.6 points per game thanks to several deep TDs but has a lowly 13% target share on the season. Pierce is a boom-bust WR5, so don't overpay him on the waiver wire.
     
  • Amari Cooper: Beneath the floating turd known as the Browns' passing game, Cooper is doing his part with a 28% target share and 48% air yards share. Those numbers would make him a strong WR1 in most offenses, but that isn't the case in Deshaun Watson's world. Only 57% of Cooper's targets have been catchable, which pulls his Utilization Score down (7.1). Cooper DOWNGRADES to WR3 territory, leaving fantasy managers praying for a switch to Jameis Winston.
     
  • BrIan Thomas Jr.: Thomas had another sensational outing with 23.2 fantasy points against the Colts. He is averaging 16.2 points per game, and his 2.78 yards per route run (YPRR) is the fifth-highest mark in the NFL for WRs with at least 100 routes this year. However, the Jaguars continue to limit this man to a 79% route participation, and we should get Evan Engram back in Week 6. While the former first-round NFL Draft pick's talent profile looks legit, Trevor Lawrence must show more consistency in a potentially crowded offense, OR we need an increase in playing time to unlock a significant upgrade. Thomas is a high-end WR3 with WR2 upside if the team expands his route participation.
     
  • Courtland Sutton: The Broncos offense isn't a unit we want to invest heavily in, but Sutton is due for some positive regression. He ranks 39th in Utilization Score (6.7) but 49th in points per game (9.0). Historically, WRs in Sutton's range averaged 12.5 points and have posted a WR2 or WR3 finish 62% of the time. Sutton is a borderline WR3 and is a BUY-LOW option that shouldn't cost much if you need help.
     
  • Darius Slayton: Slayton did his best Malik Nabers impression with 26 fantasy points. However, Nabers should be back soon, and Slayton's career talent profile tells us this is an outlier game. Slayton remains a WR6 option and shouldn't be a top waiver wire claim.
     
  • Deebo Samuel: Samuel missed Week 3 due to injury and has only 13.2 fantasy points over his last two games. However, his underlying data is the same as it has always been, with a 22% target share and a 12% rush share. His recent downturn is simply a by-product of the crowded 49ers offense. Last week, Brandon Aiyuk was the buy-low option in this offense, this week, he passed the baton. Samuel remains a mid-range WR2 and is a BUY-LOW candidate.
     
  • Dontayvion Wicks: Despite a four-point dud in the fantasy box score, Wicks led the Packers in targets (25%) and air yards (40%). He had two drops that cost him a more productive outing. However, historically, drops are not predictive for WRs–they are one of the most over-rated stats in fantasy football. Wicks remains a low-end WR2 in games without Watson and is a WR3 with upside with Watson.
     
  • Garrett Wilson: Wilson was a buy-low in this column last week, but his Utilization Score suggests there is still meat left on that bone. Wilson ranks as the WR10 in Utilization Score (8.3) but is 23rd in points per game (14.9). Wilson's Utilization Score comp group averaged 16.6 points, and 71% posted a WR1 finish. Wilson is a low-end WR1 and remains a BUY-LOW candidate.
     
  • George Pickens: Pickens leads the Steelers with a 27% air yards share and a 43% air yards share. However, he continues to battle suboptimal QB play and route participation (81%), and his frustration is bubbling over. Pickens DOWNGRADES to mid-range WR3 status.
     
  • Jalen Tolbert: Tolbert popped in the fantasy box score with 21.7 points. With Brandin Cooks injured, he could see more opportunities over the next three games. His 26% target share against the Steelers was out of character compared to his career, but he is still a young player in his third season. Tolbert UPGRADES to mid-range WR4 status, and we will see if he can add another solid outing. He is available in 93% of Yahoo leagues.
     
  • Jordan Addison: The Vikings have a bye in Week 6, so Addison can't provide immediate help, but he is an ascending talent. The former Round 1 NFL Draft pick posted a season-high 29% target share against the Jets. We can't expect that involvement in most games with Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson. However, Minnesota looks like one of the best offenses in the NFL, and big plays are coming for Addison (17.9 aDOT). Addison is a boom-bust WR4 status, but matchups against the Lions, Rams, Colts, and Jaguars after the by will have him looking more like a WR3 with WR2 upside for the next month.
     
  • Marvin Harrison Jr.: Harrison boasts a 26% target share and 41% air yards share, but his Utilization Score (7.2) lags due to a 59% catchable target rate. Catchable targets are sticky so this problem isn't guaranteed to resolve itself. Harrison's comps averaged 14.4 points per game, close to the rookie's 13.8 on the season. If he and Murray get on the same page, Harrison still offers WR1 upside, but for now, he DOWNGRADES to mid-range WR2 status.
     
  • Stefon Diggs: Nico Collins is week-to-week with a hamstring injury. Diggs might not be the alpha target earner we once knew in his prime, but his 22% number for the season will likely climb while Collins is out. Diggs UPGRADES to high-end WR2 territory and offers WR1 upside in games without Collins.
     
  • Tank Dell: Dell returned from injury against the Bills but came up empty in the fantasy box score with 7.3 points. Still, his 86% route participation was strong, and we know Dell offers massive upside based on last season. Dell UPGRADES to high-end WR3 status and offers WR1 spike-week upside while Collins is out. This is a great time to BUY-LOW.

TE Utilization Bytes

  • Brock Bowers: Bowers posted another solid route participation (79%), with Michael Mayer out due to personal reasons. The rookie now ranks third in Utilization Score (7.9), and his comps have averaged 12.2 points per contest. With Davante Adams likely to leave via trade, Bowers might be the number-one receiving option in Vegas. Bowers is a top-three TE the rest of the way.
     
  • Dalton Schultz: Schultz has been the forgotten man in 2024, but with Collins week-to-week with a hamstring injury, he is in line for a temporary upgrade. Schultz morphs into a high-end TE2 until Collins returns. 
     
  • T.J. Hockenson: The Vikings have a Week 6 bye, but Hockenson could return in Week 7. He will take some time to ramp up, but now is the time to try to buy low in a TE-starved world. Hockenson will start as a low-end TE1 and upgrade as his workload expands and offers high-end TE1 upside.
     
  • Tucker Kraft: Kraft has erupted for 17.3 and 24.8 fantasy points over the last two games. However, he has a 15% target share, 16% TPRR, and 5% air yards share on the season. In three games with a 79% route participation or higher, the second-year TE has a Utilization Score of 6.5. Kraft UPGRADES to low-end TE1 territory BUT he is a SELL-HIGH candidate if a desperate league-mate believes he is more than that.