Chris Allen…

Understanding matchups is one of the few remaining edges in fantasy football.

Like everything else, we can be wrong. A player doesn’t line up on a certain side of the field, or a specific defender plays better than the weeks prior. In other words, our projection of the environment can shift. However, when things go right, we can find players who can keep us winning.

It’s all about setting expectations for our fringe players. A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and Ja'Marr Chase should be (read: better be) in your starting lineup independent of the defense they’ll face. But for some of the guys we’re not as confident about, let’s use some data to see if they’re worth a start in Week 11.

 

Matchups to Target

Jameson Williams vs. Jaguars

Two larger storylines came out of Detroit’s comeback win in prime time last week:

  1. The Lions gutted out a huge win
  2. Jared Goff threw 5 interceptions? Yikes.

However, a third topic was Jameson Williams’ involvement in his first game back from suspension. To be fair, Sam LaPorta scoring on a well-schemed TD likely kept Williams out of the limelight. Regardless, Jameson’s involvement in the offense was as if he never left.

Williams has now accrued more air yards than Amon-Ra St. Brown in half of their starts together. And at an 18.0% share on the season, the third-year WR is more than a deep threat. However, if there ever were a defense for him to face, it’d be Jacksonville.

  • Yards per Game Allowed (on throws of 20 air yards or more): 66.4 (most)
  • Passing Success Rate Allowed: 44.1% (4th-highest)
  • Passing Touchdowns Allowed: 4 (3rd-most)

Per our DvP tool, the Jags are the third-best matchup for opposing QBs. Deshaun Watson and an injured Jordan Love are the only passers not to eclipse 200 yards against them. Anyway, Williams plays both sides of the field, but will draw CB Ronald Darby if lined up on the left. Against the Eagles, Darby single-handedly gave up 102 yards and a score, marking his third triple-digit contest on the season. Williams’ workload, even on a run-first team, should have him in your lineup. The matchup gives him a chance at a WR1 finish. 

Cedric Tillman vs. Saints

At first glance, maybe I won’t advocate for Cedric Tillman.

New Orleans’ lack of resistance up front gives opposing RBs an easy day at the office, leaving less work for the QBs. However, when offenses do take to the air, they know which CB to target.

  • Week 10: 37.6% (of the opposing team’s passing yards allowed by Alontae Taylor)
  • Week 9: 27.5%
  • Week 8: 23.3%
  • Week 7: 46.3%

Darnell Mooney set up Bijan Robinson’s first TD on a shot play down to the 1-yard line against Taylor. Ladd McConkey smoked him two weeks prior. Allowing chunk plays has been a common occurrence for the Saints’ (now) top corner. Since Amari Cooper’s departure, Tillman has been battling for the WR1 spot in Cleveland, with the results backing up his claim.

We know Jameis Winston’s tendencies as a passer. Accordingly, Tillman’s aDOT hasn’t been in the single digits since earning more snaps. Even with other options in the passing game, Tillman’s usage and efficiency on his catches make him a solid WR2 for Week 11.

Sneaky Matchups

DeMario Douglas vs. Rams

The Patriots’ offense appears to be condensing. Kendrick Bourne spent his time on the sidelines in Week 10 as the team wanted to get more of their younger players on the field. As a result, we saw more of Kayshon Boutte and Ja’Lynn Polk. But let’s not forget Pop Douglas. 

Douglas is averaging 5.7 targets per game over his last three. However, his sneaky upside for Week 11 isn’t just because of his volume. As our Utilization Report game logs highlight, he’s become one of Drake Maye’s favorite targets in obvious passing situations. Plus, if you want to attack the Rams, it’ll be on the interior.

LA’s CB Cobie Durant has taken the most snaps in the slot over the last two weeks. Despite limiting Miami’s WRs to 4 yards and a score, most remember Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 166-yard outburst in Week 9. While a similar output is hard to expect, Douglas functioning as Maye’s checkdown in pressure situations gives him enough runway to be in the WR3/FLEX conversation for Week 11.  

Devaughn Vele vs. Falcons

A single week doesn’t make an entire season, but Week 10 was an inflection point for Devaughn Vele.

If you skip over the numbers, nothing sticks out. We can find 15.0% target shares elsewhere. And, no, recommending a player with just 13.0% of their team’s air yards isn’t a cry for help. Look at his average on the season compared to last week.

Vele ran more routes and earned more attempts in high-leverage (i.e., better for fantasy scoring) situations than in weeks past. The rookie WR hit season highs in targets on third/fourth downs and end-zone targets. The latter netted him his first touchdown. Admittedly, we’re working off of one game, but add in on-field usage, and the result should give us confidence we’ll see more of him.

Luckily, the Falcons set up Vele for another strong performance. They rank seventh in PPR PPG allowed to opposing WRs. Vele will draw Atlanta’s slot corner, Dee Alford. Alford has given up the ninth-most yards per snap from the interior of any CB (min. 100 slot coverage snaps). With Vele’s bump in workload, he’s a deeper FLEX option for Week 11.

Matchups to Avoid

Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 49ers

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a few things working against him. His teammate is one of those things.

The return of any team’s WR1 puts the remaining options at risk for a downtick in usage. But I didn’t truly understand how much JSN benefited from DK Metcalf’s absence until I looked at the numbers.

  • Target Share: 21.0% (w/ Metcalf), 33.0% (w/out Metcalf)
  • Air-Yard Share: 21.0%, 63.0%
  • aDOT: 8.3, 15.4
  • YPRR: 1.10, 3.51

I’m from Ohio and, like most of you, saw Smith-Njigba in college. He went toe-to-toe with Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Marvin Harrison Jr., and produced alongside all of them. So, the former Buckeye morphing into Geno Smith’s WR1 isn’t a surprise. However, OC Ryan Grubb relegated JSN to the slot on 81.1% of his snaps with Metcalf active. And for enemy wideouts, it’s the last place you want to be when facing the 49ers.

San Francisco just extended its slot corner, Deommodore Lenoir, for a reason. He’s yet to give up a TD in coverage and forced 2 interceptions. Of the 31 CBs with over 100 coverage snaps from the slot, Lenoir has generated the lowest passer rating. Metcalf is back. The 49ers’ secondary has surrendered the 6th-fewest PPR PPG to WRs. Metcalf can get there on explosive plays. With him back, Smith-Njigba’s path to a similar result just got slimmer and limits his upside for Week 11.

Amari Cooper vs. Chiefs

On the one hand, I’d like to roster as many pieces from either offense as possible in the KC-BUF game. The game has a tight spread and ties for the third-highest total this weekend. Plus, Amari Cooper should have less competition for looks.

Keon Coleman will be out with a wrist injury, and Dalton Kincaid is battling a potential MCL sprain. Between those two, that’s 9.5 targets per game missing from the Bills’ starting lineup. It’d be reasonable to push up Cooper’s projection for this week, but he’s dealing with an ailment of his own.

Cooper’s cast is a result of the same wrist injury that’s kept him on the injury report since shortly after he joined the team. And now he’s missed two games. With Khalil Shakir primarily manning the inside (71.1% slot snap rate), Cooper will likely play on the outside opposite Mack Hollins. Subsequently, he’ll face off against KC’s Trent McDuffie, who’s put a cap on perimeter receivers this season.

  • Passing Yards Allowed in Coverage: 254 (8th-fewest of 38 qualifying CBs—min. 300 coverage snaps)
  • Reception Rate Allowed: 61.0% (14th-lowest)
  • PFF Coverage Grade: 66.8 (15th-best)

McDuffie has given up only two touchdowns this season while minimizing the output of the WRs he’s faced. Last week was the first time he had given up an explosive play. Cooper has caught 7 passes from Josh Allen since his arrival in Buffalo. And it’s been two weeks since the two have been able to hook up during an actual game. Given the matchup and lack of history between the two, Cooper falls into the WR3 category for Week 11.