I want to rant about the schedule.

Six teams out with the end-of-season tournament around the corner — just one more hurdle fantasy managers have to overcome. However, we have to do this again in Week 14. Even still, evaluating matchups shouldn’t fall out of our process for putting together a starting lineup.

If you’re anything like me, finding active, healthy players is more than half the battle. But they still need to score points! And, in theory, they’re generating more than your opponent. So, even with the slim pickings, setting expectations should inform your roster decisions. And, to help, let’s walk through six matchups to set the stage for Week 12.

Matchups to Target

Mike Evans at Giants

NFL Insiders broke the news on Wednesday that brought a sigh of relief to Bucs fans and fantasy managers alike.

Evans needs to average 95 yards a game to close out the season with his 11th 1,000-yard season. On the one hand, I’d like to think Tampa prefers to continue stacking wins. But, actually, on the flip side, with their WR1 back, there’s a path for them to do both.

  • (Weeks 1-6) Air Yard Share: 41.4% (8th-most of 34 WRs – min. 20.0% target share)
  • First Downs per Target: 0.48 (6th-most)
  • End-Zone Targets: 8 (2nd-most)

Even at 31 years old, Evans is still using his 6-foot-5 frame to make plays downfield. When everyone was healthy, Evans’ air yard share dwarfed Chris Godwin’s 25% slice of the pie. With Godwin gone, Evans walks into a WR group that is equally injured as he was. Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard have had their own hamstring ailments. So, Evans’ offensive situation situation lends itself to earning a majority of the targets. But his defensive matchup sets him up to produce like he was at the start of the season.

Evans has lined up on the left side on 65.0% of his snaps and will likely draw Giants CB Deonte Banks. Of the 45 corners with 300 or more coverage snaps, Banks has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards and the second-most TDs. Banks has surrendered a league-high 137.8 passer rating when targeted. It’s reasonable to assume Tampa will ease Evans back into action, but against the Giants’ secondary, a WR1 outcome is in his range of outcomes. 

Courtland Sutton at Raiders

Five targets.

Two receptions.

Thirty-two yards.

Divisional rematches usually give me pause. The teams that are playing are already familiar with each other. Courtland Sutton’s 5.2-PPR-point outing in Denver’s initial meeting with the Raiders doesn’t make me feel any better. But Bo Nix has gotten more reps. The offense, as a whole, looks better. But, specific to Sutton, he’s separated as Broncos’ WR1.

Sutton has hoarded 30.0% of Nix’s targets over the last month of action. His 9.4 UR Score aligns with the top receivers this year. Plus, going up against the Raiders’ secondary puts him in contention for a top-12 spot by the end of Week 12.

Per Las Vegas’ practice reports, starting CB Jakorian Bennett is still out with a shoulder injury. He’s played the defensive right side on 404 of his 406 coverage snaps. In his absence, the Raiders have trotted out rookie Decamerion Richardson. Consequently, Richardson allowed 20.0 yards per reception against the Dolphins just last week. With the workload and positive game environment, Sutton has a WR2 projection with WR1 upside in a divisional rematch.

Sneaky Matchups

Jaylen Waddle vs. Patriots

Let me make the case before you skip over this one.

Yes, I realize Jaylen Waddle hasn’t had a double-digit PPR performance since Week 1. De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith have (essentially) taken his job. Waddle now has to fight with Odell Beckham for targets. But there’s a pattern to the shift.

  • Tua Tagovailoa (passing aDOT): 9.1 (Week 1), 5.2 (Weeks 10-11)
  • Tyreek Hill (receiving aDOT): 11.6, 7.0
  • Jaylen Waddle (receiving aDOT): 14.4, 11.6

Tua’s been targeting the short-intermediate parts of the field as compared to letting it rip, as we had seen throughout the ’23 season. With Jonnu Smith (6.5-yard aDOT) also operating in this area, Waddle is (literally) the odd man out. However, Waddle has still had an 88.0% route rate since Tua’s return. Plus, his targets have diminished (14.0%) instead of completely disappearing, as any upset Waddle manager would suggest. Miami’s WR2 plays the more volatile role in the offense. But against the Patriots, he has a path to surprise us.

We just watched Puka Nacua smoke NE CBs Marco Wilson and Christian Gonzalez for 74 yards and a score. However, the Rams’ outside WR hasn’t been the only one.

  • Keenan Allen: 4-42-0
  • Calvin Ridley: 6-67-0
  • Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: 6-50-1
  • Garrett Wilson: 5-52-0
  • Brian Thomas Jr.: 3-69-1

The archetypes differ, but the results have been the same over the last five games. New England’s secondary is susceptible to explosive gains on the outside. Given Waddle’s typical deployment, he’s worthy of FLEX consideration with six teams on bye.

DeAndre Hopkins at Panthers

Hopkins isn’t sneaky, per se. But posting a 28.6 PPR total the second week after joining the Chiefs and then ghosting us two straight weeks warrants a (quick) deeper look. Most will look at the matchup against the Panthers, buy into the narrative the Chiefs are mad they aren’t undefeated anymore, and start every KC player with reckless abandon. 

Honestly, it might work.

However, Hopkins' box score and underlying metrics are worth a second look.

Nuk’s route rate was the first trend to catch my eye. After a spike in Week 9, he’s been on the decline. Even more concerning, in what was a pivotal game against the Bills, Hopkins only played on 47.0% of the snaps. But KC’s game plan was largely the culprit.

The Chiefs used play concepts involving two TEs on 50.0% of their plays. It was a season-high mark. Accordingly, Hopkins was only on the field for 10 of them. He’s not fully integrated into the offense yet. The adjustment lends credence to the idea his workload will get back on track in a “normal” environment. Luckily, facing the Panthers is about as normal as you can get.

Carolina sits at the league average in fantasy points allowed to WRs, as teams have run all over them throughout the year. However, with the Chiefs passing at the ninth-highest rate on early downs, their script favors a return to prominence for Hopkins. And as he’s shifted from outside to the slot (30.1% slot rate, 66.7% outside), he’ll see either Jaycee Horn or Dane Jackson. Jackson alone is giving up a 126.1 NFL passer rating when targeted. With Hopkins still earning a modest share of the looks for the Chiefs, he has WR3 appeal in Week 12.

Matchups to Avoid

Cooper Kupp vs. Eagles

You’re not benching Cooper Kupp.

End of story.

However, as I mentioned in the intro, we do need to set expectations.

Kupp has averaged a 30.0% target share since returning from injury. That’s with Puka Nacua also on the field. With Sean McVay scheming up looks for both, Kupp’s PPR point totals have been in the double digits in every game since his return. But we, and opposing defenses, know where Kupp will be before the snap. His 62.9% slot snap rate is a dead giveaway. And going up against the Eagles presents two challenges for him.

First, Philadelphia’s defensive front has been in the top half of the league in pressure rate over the last six weeks. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford ranks 29th in EPA per dropback when under duress. After taking four sacks against the Dolphins (Eagles DC Vic Fangio’s last stop), facing Philly might pose similar problems. Plus, the Eagles have the personnel to limit production from the interior.

Rookie SCB Cooper DeJean has yet to allow a touchdown from the slot, and passers are averaging 16 yards per game against him. After Jayden Reed went for 138 yards and a TD against them in Week 1, just one slot receiver has eclipsed 50 yards (Chris Godwin). And that’s after facing CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, and Malik Nabers. Again, you’re not sitting Kupp, but making roster moves to support a potential drop in production would make sense ahead of Week 12.

Jakobi Meyers vs. Broncos

Jakobi Meyers falls into the same bucket as Kupp. You (likely) can’t bench him, and we’re relying on volume to get us through the weekend.

I cut off his UR game log so we can focus on the part that matters. Since Davante Adams’ departure, Meyers has averaged 8.2 targets per game. For reference, Tre Tucker (the next Raiders WR on the pecking order) is at 4.4. And credit where it’s due. For all the issues with Las Vegas’ offense, the passing game has set Meyers up to succeed with patterns across the middle of the field. However, Meyers has “sacrificed” weaker defensive attention for more targets.

With Adams, Meyers had a 48.4% slot rate. He saw fewer looks from Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell, but they were high-percentage attempts. He had a 78.0% catchable target rate. In Week 4, the first game without Adams, it plummeted to 60.0% as his snaps on the outside nearly doubled. And now, he gets to face CB Patrick Surtain.

For all the hype surrounding Denver’s CB1, the data supports the superlatives. He’s given up the fewest yards of any corner with over 300 coverage snaps (142) while securing the second-most interceptions. Plus, the Broncos’ defensive front is ninth in pressure rate. Meyers may be the WR1 by role, but the quality of targets drops his potential at a ceiling. And with the game environment on tap for Week 12, he’s more of a WR4 without much upside.