I want to switch things up a bit for this column.

It’s Week 14, and we’ve players on bye, injuries, and the fantasy playoffs knocking on our door. Our decisions are much harder than earlier in the season. Well, maybe not harder, but they come with more ramifications. Plus, with over three months of games, there’s less uncertainty about the players we usually want to start anyway.

You don’t need me to tell you to start A.J. Brown against the Panthers.

CeeDee Lamb going up against the Bengals’ secondary doesn’t require any analysis.

However, some of the middle-class WRs could use some context to bolster their appeal. Honestly, they could be the guys who make or break your season. You were already starting your star players. But you have to fill every roster spot. So, let’s go through some of the lesser-discussed WRs and their outlook for Week 14.

Matchups to Target

Falcons WR Drake London at Vikings

I realize after watching Kirk Cousins throw four interceptions that rostering any of his pass-catchers is a tough proposition. But Drake London has a couple of points that are working in his favor. Darnell Mooney’s health is a partial factor.

Mooney popped up on the injury report shortly after Atlanta’s Week 10 matchup against the Saints. Coincidentally, London’s target share jumped in that game and afterward.

Unfortunately, London had to square off against CB Patrick Surtain in Week 11, resulting in a drop in volume. Regardless, the Falcons’ WR1 went from 5.3 looks per game in Weeks 7-9 to 8.6 over his last three. Also, I’m not as worried about London facing the Vikings’ defense. For all of the hand-wringing we’ve done about our skill players going up against Minnesota, the results haven’t been as dreadful for WRs.

  • Marvin Harrison Jr.: 17.0 (PPR points)
  • Keenan Allen: 23.6
  • Puka Nacua: 17.6
  • Cooper Kupp: 16.1
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown: 25.2

The names listed are just as important as the point totals. Think about the WR archetype represented by Allen, Kupp, and ARSB. London plays a similar style, as his interior snap and target rate have been above 30.0% in three of his last five games. He can line up on the outside against CB Fabian Moreau (who split reps with Stephon Gilmore and gave up a TD last week) or face Byron Murphy Jr. in the slot (he gave up the eighth-most yards per snap from the slot last week). 

While Kirk Cousins might have a tough time facing his old team, the workload and projected defensive matchups should put London in the low-end WR1 conversation for Week 14.

Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers at Buccaneers

It would be reasonable to look at the Raiders' offense and focus only on Brock Bowers. But since Davante Adams’s departure, Jakobi Meyers has averaged 9.9 targets per game. That’s the fifth-highest mark of any WR. That level of attempts should allow us to look past his poor QB play, as he has gone from Aidan O’Connell to Gardner Minshew to Desmond Ridder and back to O’Connell in two months. Plus, it’s not like more work earlier in the season has propped up his near-season-long average.

Meyers has seen over 30.0% of the Raiders’ targets in four of his last seven games. Going up against the Bucs' secondary should also add to his allure. As a unit, they’re the eighth-best defense to start WRs against, per our DVP tool. One of their issues is giving up big plays. Adam Thielen hit them with a couple just last week. In fact, Tampa has surrendered a long catch-and-run in every game since Week 2. Between his target share and game environment, Meyers is a solid WR2 for Week 14.

Sneaky Matchups

Vikings WR Jordan Addison vs. Falcons

To be fair, when I look at Jordan Addison’s target shares over the last few weeks, the word “sneaky” doesn’t come to mind.

However, playing alongside Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson can force our attention away from Addison. That’s certainly been the case for defenses facing the Vikings. Additionally, having an overall WR1 week sandwiched between two games outside of the top 20 would give any fantasy manager pause before starting Addison. But let’s look at the defense he’ll be running against on Sunday. 

  • Passing Yards per Game Allowed (last six games): 250.3 (6th-most)
  • Passing TDs Allowed: 15 (T-2nd-most)
  • Fantasy Points Allowed to WRs: 33.9 (T-6th-most)

Since Addison largely lines up on the right side, he’ll see Falcons’ CB Clark Phillips. Phillips has given up the sixth-highest reception rate of any corner with over 100 coverage snaps in his last six games. Just last week, Ladd McConkey zoomed past him on a long gain. So, while Addison profiles as a boom-bust option, he has the game environment to give us a ceiling outcome in Week 14.

Bears WR Keenan Allen at 49ers

I’ll get into the superlatives for Keenan Allen, but monitor his practice participation to close out the week.

Allen was limping to close out the Bears' game on Thanksgiving. So, an early-week DNP isn’t too surprising. However, given his workload, allowing him more time to rest makes sense. 

Up until Thanksgiving, Allen had been Chicago’s WR1. He had out-targeted DJ Moore in every game since their bye week. In a one-game sample, it does appear like the tide is turning back to Moore, as Caleb Williams’s Thanksgiving gift to Moore was a 44.0% target share. Regardless, Allen still operated out of the slot on 51.8% of his snaps, and that’s the area to target when going up against the 49ers.

As San Francisco slot corner Deommodore Lenoir continues to work his way back from a knee injury, offenses have looked inside to keep their passing game moving. Even in the snow, Josh Allen forced multiple targets to Khalil Shakir. Replacement defenders Nick McCloud and Renardo Green both allowed 100% completion rates while they tried to keep up with the Bills’ receivers. With Caleb Williams playing better, if Allen is active, he should be in your starting lineup.

Matchups to Avoid

I'm re-upping this from last week, but “Avoid” doesn’t mean to sit a player.

This section is more about adjusting expectations, given either the defensive environment or recent shifts in usage. Accordingly, we should scour the rest of our rosters for upside. It’s still possible they can hit their ceiling through a big play or a touchdown, but being mindful of their floor can set us up for success.

Jets WR Garrett Wilson at Dolphins

Downgrading Garrett Wilson’s outlook isn’t about his target-earning ability. Looking at his last month of action, he’d be a top-end starter for most teams.

However, he has a few things working against him. First and foremost is his teammate. Davante Adams has earned more targets (32.0%) and had a greater share of the team’s air yards (42.0%) than Wilson. At first glance, that’s not a bad thing. We like Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp or Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Receiver duos are a necessity. But, for fantasy purposes, we’d like them to be on productive offenses.

  • Yards per Drive (last four games): 30th
  • EPA per Play: 29th

It’s not just the vibes that are bad in New York. As Aaron Rodgers continues to falter, the rest of the offense drags down with him. And this week, facing the Dolphins adds another layer of complexity for Wilson.

With the third-year receiver playing 66.5% of his snaps out wide, he’ll face off against CB Jalen Ramsey more often than Adams. The savvy vet has given up the sixth-fewest yards of any corner with more than 300 coverage snaps so far this season. It’s been six weeks since he’s allowed a TD. Wilson has multiple factors working against him, making him more of a mid-range WR2 based on his volume within the offense.

Chargers WR Quentin Johnston at Chiefs

I don’t think (read: I hope) nobody is counting on Quentin Johnston to secure them a playoff spot. However, the byes plus the news stemming from Sunday might make folks reconsider.

Even in a game where Ladd McConkey’s snap rate fell to 63.0%, Johnston could barely eke out a 17.0% target share. And, unfortunately, last week highlighted a three-week downward trend in his targets. 

Johnston’s opportunities and air yards have dwindled over the last three games. Actually, so has his aDOT. So, on the one hand, this could be good for the receiver with “stone hands.” His catchable target rate has climbed up as Justin Herbert has looked for Johnston closer to the LOS. But four to five targets aren’t worth our time in such a critical week. His defensive matchup doesn’t help, either.

As Johnston has primarily lined up as the left WR (60.0% of his snaps), he’ll likely see CB Joshua Williams. Of the Chiefs’ corners, Williams has allowed the lowest catch rate (53.8%) and given up the second-fewest yards per reception. In Week 13 alone, he played 32 coverage snaps, and Aidan O’Connell only tested Williams twice. Neither attempt worked. Even if McConkey’s injuries limit him, adding Johnston shouldn’t be the corresponding move from savvy fantasy gamers.