We made it, folks.

The playoffs are here.

Congrats on making it to the dance after three and a half months of chaos. But we’re not done yet. Every start-sit decision becomes all the more critical as we need the best out of every starting roster spot. You don’t need me to tell you to start Puka Nacua. But your other WR spots may be weaker. 

So, let’s dive into the matchups and see which receivers have an edge or warrant other roster decisions ahead of Week 15.

Matchups to Target

Titans WR Calvin Ridley vs. Bengals

Before even looking at the player, look at the matchup.

As a tired (but happy for this week!) Bengals fan, I could probably rattle off every WR from the other team I’ve watched prance into our end zone after a missed tackle or botched communication between defenders. Actually, both probably happened to enable the score. And you’ve probably heard all of the stats on WRs going against Cincinnati. So, I’ll put it like this. Here’s the list of receivers to face Cincinnati, garner at least a 15.0% target share, and not wind up with 10 or more PPR points.

  • Zay Flowers, Week 10
  • Tre Tucker, Week 9
  • Xavier Worthy, Week 2

Twenty wide receivers met the criteria, and only three wound up with single-digit scores. In other words, based on just this year, Calvin Ridley has an 85% chance of scoring at least 10 points. However, with his workload, his floor should be a bit higher.

  • Target Share (since Week 8): 30.0% (7th-most)
  • Air Yard Share: 45.0% (4th-most)
  • UR Score: 8.2 (12th-highest)

DeAndre Hopkins left after Week 7, giving us a seven-game sample of Ridley as the Titans’ WR1. With only Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to challenge the former Falcon for work, Ridley has notched top-seven marks in targets and air yards. But what he’s done with his volume makes him an even stronger play.

A UR Score of 8.2 has resulted in top-12 results at the WR position 61% of the time, based on the last four years of data. Receivers in this range have averaged 16.2 PPR PPG, which coincidentally is about a point higher than Ridley’s current pace (15.1). Even with the concerns about Will Levis throwing Ridley the ball, his role within the Titans’ offense and facing one of the league’s worst secondaries should be enough to have him in the WR2 conversation for Week 15.

Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. Patriots

I can see why Marvin Harrison is more of a WR3 amongst our rankers this week. Touchdowns have buoyed his results over the last six weeks. He’s a top-24 receiver if he scores. If not, his best finish has been WR34. However, his opportunity floor should give him some appeal even at this point in the season.

Trey McBride still leads all Arizona pass-catchers, but Harrison has a lock on the wideout share of attempts. Since the team’s bye, Harrison (26 targets) has nearly doubled the volume of Michael Wilson (14). In any case, we’d need more than just attempts from Kyler Murray to make Harrison a viable start. Luckily, his matchup gives him the juice to consider him as a starter.

  • FPPG Allowed to WRs: 33.7 (7th-most)
  • Passing Yards per Game Allowed to WRs: 153.5 (11th-most)
  • FPPG Allowed to Outside WRs: 26.3 (10th-most)

Isolating New England’s defensive results to perimeter WRs demonstrates Harrison’s upside, as he’s been an outside receiver on 74.6% of his snaps. And the recent results emphasize the Patriots’ inefficiencies in their secondary.

  • Week 12: Jaylen Waddle, 9-144-1
  • Week 11: Puka Nacua, 9-123-1
  • Week 8: Garrett Wilson, 8-113-0

Even Nick Westbrook-Ikhine converted on an intermediate toss to find the end zone against New England. In addition, their front ranks as the eighth-worst unit in pressure rate. Assuming Kyler Murray has more time to operate from the pocket, Harrison has QB and game situation to connect for multiple explosive plays on Sunday.  

Sneaky Matchups

Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle at Texans

In the case of Jaylen Waddle, sneaky is synonymous with inconsistent. And I don’t just mean his fantasy point totals. Look at his target shares over his last seven games.

He has oscillated from a WR1 or WR2 role to a WR4 every week since Tua Tagovailoa came back from IR. The simple (i.e., wrong) analysis would be that after a game with a 27.0% target share, he’ll be back down to 10.0% in Week 15 based on the two-month pattern. But the advanced (i.e., better) interpretation of his results would be to look at his teammates. 

  • Hill: 21.2% (target share), 22.3% (targets per route run), 16.3 (PPR PPG)
  • DeVon Achane: 17.4%, 24.9%, 21.4
  • Jonnu Smith: 19.3%, 22.9%, 15.7
  • Waddle: 16.2%, 17.0%, 13.0

The Dolphins have sat at the league average in early-down passing rate (52.8%) but have four legitimate options in the passing game. Last year, it was just Waddle and Tyreek Hill. However, if the spread offense drops your confidence in starting Waddle, the matchup should perk up your spirits.

  • (Houston) FPPG Allowed to WRs: 36.7 (3rd-most)
  • Yards per Game Allowed to WRs: 159.5 (8th-most)
  • FPPG Game Allowed to Outside WRs: 25.2 (13th-most)

From both Jaguars WRs in Week 13 back to Garrett Wilson’s 30-point outburst in Week 9, Houston’s secondary has been an issue. Waddle may be fighting for looks, but in a potential back-and-forth environment, he’s a high-end WR3 with upside for the first week of the fantasy playoffs.

Chiefs WR DeAndre Hopkins at Browns

DeAndre Hopkins scored a TD and finished with just 13.2 PPR points last week. So, it’s not like even if he finds the end zone, he’s going to be one of your top starters. However, at least more of the looks have started to shift his way over the last three weeks.

  • Week 12: 17.0% (Hopkins’s target share), 17.0% (Worthy target share)
  • Week 13: 18.0%, 16.0%
  • Week 14: 24.0%, 15.0%

Hopkins’s target and air yard shares have steadily increased since Week 12, ending with Nuk hoarding 64.0% of the air yards against the Chargers in primetime. The caveat is his aDOT has ticked up at the same time (20.0 yards on Sunday night). It makes his production more volatile, but we’ve seen opposing WR1s operate similarly against the Browns.

Cleveland sits as the 13th-best unit for WRs. Outside of Courtland Sutton’s big day, Marquez Valdes-Scantling tagged them for 16.7 PPR points, and Quentin Johnston put up 21.8. Tee Higgins also found the end zone in their first divisional matchup. I highlighted these guys in particular, as they have similar body types and can work the boundary in contested-catch situations like Hopkins. With Hopkins taking on a larger role in the Chiefs’ offense, he could be the key to their next last-minute win in Week 15.

Matchups to Avoid

Ravens WR Zay Flowers at Giants

Zay Flowers has taken a step forward in his second year by earning more targets and working farther downfield than during his rookie campaign. He’s taken more than 30% of Lamar Jackson’s targets in three of his last six games. However, going up against the Giants doesn’t have the same appeal you’d think.

  • FPPG Allowed to WRs: 27.5 (27th-most)
  • FPPG Allowed to RBs: 23.5 (5th-most)

Despite Jackson piling up passing yards at the ninth-highest rate, Baltimore still leans on its running game. The Ravens are 21st in early-down passing rate. And now they face a defense giving up not just the fifth-most points to RBs but the sixth-most PPG to mobile QBs. While Flowers’s defensive matchup may be one we’d like to target, the game script lends itself to more work for Jackson and Derrick Henry, limiting Flowers’s upside for Week 15.

Texans WR Tank Dell vs. Dolphins

After Miami’s defensive performance in Week 14, I could see folks considering more parts to the Texans’ passing game outside of Nico Collins. Both Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams had more than 100 receiving yards on the day. Stroud could do the same for Collins and Tank Dell — or at least that’d be the line of thinking. But Houston’s receiver duo doesn’t garner the same amount of work as New York’s.

Dell has been ceding targets to the rest of the offense since Collins came back from IR. His target share has dropped in each game since Week 11, while his aDOT has skyrocketed to a hilarious 29.5 yards before their bye. Dell will also see Miami CB Kader Kohu, who has given up just 149 receiving yards (and two TDs) since Week 5. Even if you’re desperate, avoid Dell in Week 15.