Week 16 is here, so let’s dive into the matchups and see which receivers have an edge or warrant other roster decisions ahead of the fantasy semifinals. 

Matchups to Target

Jets WR Davante Adams vs. Rams

It would be easy to look at Week 15’s results and designate Davante Adams as the best play the following week. He has a historic connection with Aaron Rodgers. A repeat performance would make sense. However, last week’s performance was a few weeks in the making.

Since their Week 12 bye, Adams has taken over as the WR1. He’s had the same or more targets than Garrett Wilson in three straight games. Also, look at the catchable target rate (“Catch Tgts” column). Because Adams runs from the slot (50.9% interior snap rate) more than Wilson, the vet has greater access to layup attempts from Rodgers to move the chains. It’s part of why 17 of his 35 targets have gone for first downs. So Adams not only has the workload but also the easier share of the looks to generate fantasy points. He also has a matchup he can exploit.

Rams safety Quentin Lake functions as their slot corner (330 slot coverage reps on the season). He’s also given up the eighth-most yards per snap of any defender (corner or safety) to man the interior over the last month. Along with the two scores he’s surrendered, Lake has given up the seventh-most receptions to inside receivers. Despite the overall difficult matchup for the Jets (only Josh Allen has accrued more than 20 fantasy points against the Rams in their last six games), Adams’s diverse route tree will enable another strong performance in Week 16.

Packers WR Christian Watson vs. Saints

I realize Romeo Doubs caught two TDs and is one of the priority pickups off the waiver wire for Week 16. However, Green Bay had another receiver out there with more targets and air yards during the game. 

Admittedly, it’s a one-game comparison. But if scoring twice vaults you to the top of our FAAB bids, earning more passes should at least be taken into consideration. In addition, both Doubs (17.6 air yards) and Christian Watson (15.8) had receiving aDOTs that make fantasy sustainability difficult. Contested catches or other low-percentage throws must turn into scores. So, Watson’s workload gives him the edge over Doubs, and going up against the Saints' secondary is another point in Watson’s favor.

Watson plays both sides of the field but tends to align on the left side of the offense (44.0% of his snaps at left WR). His alignment indicates he’ll likely draw New Orleans CB Kool-Aid McKinstry. In just three games since the Saints’ bye, McKinstry has allowed the 10th-highest passer rating when targeted of any corner with more than 100 coverage snaps. Terry McLaurin worked him for a score in tight coverage on Sunday. While the Packers have been more focused on their running game as of late, a deep shot (resulting in a TD) to Watson makes him worth FLEX consideration in Week 16.

Sneaky Matchups

Bills WR Keon Coleman vs. Patriots

Let me just quickly recap my notes from Buffalo’s Week 15 win over the Lions.

  • Josh Allen cemented himself as the MVP.
  • Dawson Knox and Khalil Shakir are the most reliable pass-catchers.
  • Ty Johnson, not Ray Davis, is the backup RB to have on your roster.

Oh, and Amari Cooper isn’t a critical factor in the passing game. That’s part of why I view Keon Coleman as a sneaky option for Week 16. Allen was at least looking for Coleman downfield. The rookie ran more routes than Cooper (54.0% to 41.0%) and had the second-highest air-yard share against Detroit (23.0%). And while the Patriots have been a neutral matchup for opposing WRs (15th in PPG allowed to the position), there’s a commonality to the WRs that have succeeded against them.

  • Jaylen Waddle: 9-144-1, 28.4 (PPR points)
  • Cooper Kupp: 10-106-2, 28.6
  • Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: 6-50-1, 16.0

Over the last month and a half, six different WR duos have gone up against the Patriots’ secondary. In half of those games, the WR2 (or 1B) has wound up in the Top 24. Greg Dortch almost got there last Sunday, but he fumbled on his way to the end zone. Regardless, the guy not facing CB Christian Gonzalez has been able to take advantage of the softer coverage. Accordingly, Coleman should be a FLEX consideration for Week 16.

Bears WR Rome Odunze vs. Lions

It’s hard to say anything positive about Chicago’s offense. So, I’ll start with the negatives regarding Detroit’s defense.

Simply put, Rome Odunze won’t be running against the same set of defenders he did just a few weeks ago. Detroit has had to place a new starter on IR every week since their first divisional meeting on Thanksgiving. The attrition has affected their ability to generate pressure up front. But in Week 10, C.J. Stroud was under duress on 42.1% of his dropbacks. Detroit’s pressure rate has steadily slid to 29.7% this past week. If we get more time for Caleb Williams in the pocket, Odunze should be the beneficiary.

Despite the drop in target share, Odunze still has the second-highest air-yard share over the last month as the offense has shifted away from former OC Shane Waldron. While the offensive line injuries have created a situation where Williams should let it go quicker, he still looks for the big play downfield to Odunze. And against an injured Lions secondary, banking on the budding connection between the rookies will pay dividends in Week 16.

Matchups to Reconsider

Commanders WR Terry McLaurin vs. Eagles

On the positive side, Terry McLaurin did the thing we’d expect of any true WR1.

Noah Brown was out before kickoff. Zach Ertz went down in the middle of the game with a concussion. Subsequently, McLaurin hit a season-high 36.0% target share with a whopping 75.0% of the team’s air yards. We think of him as the Commanders’ best option, and his usage hammers the point home. However, he’ll need the volume to maintain a high-end WR2 rank for Week 16.

The Eagles have been the toughest matchup for opposing WRs this season. At 26.5 PPR PPG allowed (the fewest in the league), it’s easy to start dropping expectations for McLaurin. He only generated 10 scoreless yards against them in their first divisional matchup. However, we’ve seen productive results from WR1s in recent weeks.

  • Calvin Austin: 5-65-0, 11.5 (PPR Points)
  • Adam Thielen: 11-102-0, 19.2
  • Puka Nacua: 13-117-0, 20.7

Squaring off against Eagles CB Quinyon Mitchell won’t be easy. But there are floor and ceiling cases that should boost our confidence about McLaurin’s outlook. He was used more out of the slot, and his receiving aDOT dipped, giving him more chances at high-percentage targets. Plus, Jayden Daniels will be healthy this time around. So, while the matchup might look tough, McLaurin doesn’t have the same ceiling as in most weeks, but the floor should still be there in Week 16.

Titans WR Calvin Ridley at Colts

Calvin Ridley has two things working against him. Surprisingly, one of them isn’t the QB change. 

First, Ridley’s target share has been switching from WR1 numbers to WR3 levels over the last three weeks. The main culprit? Chig Okonkwo. Tennessee’s TE1 has had 6, 4, and 10 attempts thrown his way since Week 13. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has also snagged some looks here and there, dropping Ridley from a 25.0% target rate after DeAndre Hopkins’s departure to 22.0%. It’s a slight drop, but with a backup QB, he’ll need as many cracks at turning air yards into actual yards as much as possible. And it’s not like the Colts’ defense will let him do it easily.

  • Courtland Sutton: 9-32-1
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown: 7-62-0
  • Jameson Williams: 7-64-0
  • Davante Adams: 7-72-0
  • Garrett Wilson: 8-18-0

The last wideout to face Indianapolis and score more than 20.0 PPR points was Justin Jefferson back in Week 9. Since then, the list of primary options who’ve had floor games has continued to grow. Rudolph was able to operate the offense in relief of Will Levis last week, but without a concerted effort to get Ridley the ball, he’s more of a WR3 for Week 16.